Puri ifad climate_change

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Climate Change Thematic Window Jo Puri Head of Evaluation Deputy Executive Director, 3ie www.3ieimpact.org

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Transcript of Puri ifad climate_change

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Climate Change Thematic Window

Jo PuriHead of Evaluation

Deputy Executive Director, 3iewww.3ieimpact.org

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AIM & COMPONENTS

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Overall Aim: Improve lives• Better evidence on what

works and why• Improve awareness and

accountability• Effective allocation of funds• Increase likelihood that CC

interventions are able to contribute to reduced GHG emissions and increase resilience.

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Climate Change Thematic Window

• Combination of 15 impact evaluations and 5 systematic reviews

• Can also include IEs requested by governments

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Did the program cause the change?

Did the program cause the change?

Impact evaluation and policies

Would it have happened anyway?Would it have happened anyway?

If the program caused the effect, how much was the effect?

If the program caused the effect, how much was the effect?

Are there other ways, that are cheaper to get the same impact?

Are there other ways, that are cheaper to get the same impact?

Impact Evaluations

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Impact Evaluations

– Efficacy and design– Effectiveness of

interventions. – What can be scaled

up? What can be/should be replicated?

– Cost effectiveness of interventions

– Trade-offs

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Design: MARENA in Honduras

• The MARENA programme better natural resource management

• Impact of MARENA– Total farm output

increased by $295 per year compared with non-participants from different villages

– No spill over effects recorded

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Are Protected areas effective?

- Selection bias in choosing PAs (implications for PES)

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Roads (1982) and Forests Of North Thailand (1986)

NORTH THAILAND

Elevat.shp

Elevat.shp

1 - 1000 feet

1000 - 3500 feet

3500 - 6000 feet

6000 - 7700 feet

Elevat.shp

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NORTH THAILAND

Elevat.shp

Elevat.shp

1 - 1000 feet

1000 - 3500 feet

3500 - 6000 feet

6000 - 7700 feet

Elevat.shp

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Data

• Combination of cross-sectional spatially explicit raster (1:1m) and vector layers and district level census data.

• Physiographic: Elevation (DEM), Slope• Soil (FAO)• Socio-Economic: Population density • Cost of Travel to the market; Roads (DCW)• Protected Areas (IUCN), • Land Use 11

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Cleared Land (Y1 = 1) T- Stats

Slope (degrees) -0.088 -10.652

Elevation (ms.) -0.001 -8.095

Population density1990 (people/km2)

0.003 4.532

Log(cost) (1982)** -0.191 -9.729

Soil and Province Dummies Not Shown

Protected Area dummy (1986) -0.077 -0.332

Constant 1.295 8.870

Protected Area (Y2 = 1) Equation

Slope (Degrees) 0.034 5.297

Elevation (ms.) 0.001 9.058

Population density1990 (people/km2)

0.001 2.297

Log(cost) (1982) 0.192 7.477

Soil and Province Dummies Not Shown

Watershed dummy 0.188 3.543

Constant -4.098 -14.010

Log Likelihood -3714.7

No. of observations 4946

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Trade-offs: Road building and Cropping

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Systematic Reviews

• A policy relevant synthesis of evidence on effectiveness of a particular intervention

• An unbiased assessment • All available high quality/ scientific evidence.• Create a gap map (assessment of evidence)• Highlight areas where there is lack of high

quality evidence and recommendations for further research.

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Interventions / Outcomes Awareness, knowledge Attitudes and Beliefs Risk behaviour / skills HIV transmission Take-up, retention. adherence Morbidity Mortality

Quality of life and well-being

Household well-being

Labour Participation/ productivity Empowerment Stigma

Treatment Access, Service quality

Behaviour change interventions

Peer Education Prevention for heterosexual men Behaviour change interventions for women ICT for youth Reducing stigma

Prevention for heterosexual men Peer intervetions Couples-focused behavioural interventions Challenges in HIV prevention research Prevention in occupational settings

Peer intervetions ICT for youth Condom use for HIV positive women Behaviour interventions for prevention

Prevention in Latin America

Peer Education

ICT for youth

Prevention in heterosexual men Prevention in occupational settings

Behaviour interventions for prevention School based interventions for youth

Influence of social agents

Peer interventions

Prevention in Latin America

ICT for youth

Prevention in occupational settings

School based interventions for youth

Condom promotion distribution

Prevention for youth in Africa

Information, education and communication

Educating traditional healers School-based sexual health in Africa Educating traditional healers Prevention for youth in Africa Increasing youth's use of health

services Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women Educating traditional

healers Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women

Peer-based interventions for HIV

positive women

School-based sexual health in Africa Peer-led sexual health education for youth

Prevention for youth in Africa Prevention in African youth Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women

Reducing stigma

Peer-led adolescent sexual health education Life skills education for youth

School-based sexual health intervetions in Africa Girls' education

Life skills education for youth Parent-child communication in

Africa Peer-led sexual health education for youth

Peer-based interventions for HIV positive women

Life skills education for youth

Parent-child communication in Africa

Prevention in African youth

Girls' education

Peer-based interventions for HIV positive

women

Mass communication Mass communication programmes

Increasing youth's use of health services

Mass media for young people

Community education, mobilisation

Community interventions for youth Behaviour interventions for prevention

Reducing stigma

HIV Testing and Counselling

Counselling for HIV testing of pregnant women Family planning Home-based VCT

Family planning

Routine vs. voluntary testing VCT Routine vs. voluntary testing Integrating PMTCT with health

services

Counselling for testing of pregnant women Family planning

Rapid T and C for pregnant women

Counselling for testing of pregnant women

Routine vs. voluntary testing

Rapid T & C for pregnant women

Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission

Counselling for HIV testing of pregnant women Integrating PMTCT with other health

services

Counselling for testing of pregnant

women

Biomedical interventions

Challenges in HIV prevention research

Population based biomedical interventions for STI control

Male circumcision

Antiretroviral Therapy

Impact of treatment on risk behaviour Children's adherence to ART

Non-clinincal outcomes of ART

Nurses ART

management

Nurses for ART management

Treatment and Care

Family support Task shifting in Africa

Task shifting in Africa Psychosocial well-being HIV affected children

Palliative care

Family-centred treatment for HIV positive children

Palliative care

Patient adherence Family-centred

treatment for HIV positive children

Task shifting in Africa Self-management

interventions

Self-management interventions

Family-centred treatment for HIV positive children

Health Systems Integrated HIV and TB Service delivery

in Africa Integrating PMTCT with health

services Task shifting in Africa Task shifting in Africa

Increasing youth's use of health

services Integrated HIV and TB Service delivery in Africa Integrated HIV and TB

Service delivery in Africa

Key populations

Peer-education Harm reduction for involuntary

detainees Peer-education

Harm reduction for involuntary detainees

Prevention interventions for female sex workers Behaviour interventions for prevention

Harm reduction for involuntary detainees Prevention interventions for female sex workers

Behaviour interventions for sex workers Male circumcision for prevention of homosexual acquisition

Harm reduction for involuntary

detainees

Behaviour interventions for sex

workers

Interventions to reduce HIV/AIDS stigma

Reducing stigma Reducing stigma Reducing stigma

Reducing stigma

Structural Interventions

Economic Interventions Economic interventions for HIV prevention Challenges in HIV prevention research

Economic interventions for HIV prevention

Economic interventions for HIV

prevention

Outcomes

What color is your cell?

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Climate Change: The evidence gap

• There are only 60 IEs...(continuing)

• Only 8 SRs directly related.

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Best bang for your buck? Organization Funds Areas of Intervention

GEF $755.5 million (2012) Energy efficiency, Renewable Energy, Sustainable Transport sustainable forestry

WBG $3,300 million (2009) Renewable energy, disaster risk reduction

UNDP $400 million (2008-2012)

Mainstreaming climate change, and support of mitigation and adaptation projects

UNEP $50.96 million (2012) adaptation capacity, clean technologies, climate communications and outreach

UN-REDD $108 million (2008-2011)

Forestry initiatives

Others (OECD, DFID)

Investments include developing solar panel and clean coal technology, fishery science,

and others

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IMPORTANCE OF THE 3IE THEMATIC WINDOW

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Significance• There is a big gap between

the requirement and availability of funds. – Required $500 bn– Available $95 bn

• Different country blocs have different requirements and resources

• Multiple outcomes

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URGENCY

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Urgent and Timely• International agenda: GCF

and SDGs.• Small Island Developing

States • Stern report and IPCC

report: Science is well known but what works in terms of uptake?

• Next few meetings should be better informed: • GEF in 2014; • COP 20 in eastern Europe. • Roadmap for 2015

(Copenhagen)

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POLICY IMPACT

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Reduction in Vulnerability in West Bengal

• This 3ie funded study recommended that the government reduce costs for small farmers to acquire electric pumps

• This policy is now being implemented by the state government

• External validity

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CLIMATE CHANGE THEMATIC WINDOW:

PROCESS AND DELIVERABLES

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Short to Intermediate Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic Window

Briefing document and research agenda finalised

FEBRUARY 2013

Preliminary evidence gap-map on CC adaptation and mitigation

Draft reports of five systematic reviews

Final evidence gap-map available on 3ie website. FEBRUARY 2014

OCTOBER/NOVEMBER 2012

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Short to Intermediate Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic Window

Efficacy/quick IEs results

NOVEMBER 2014 ONWARDS

Midline reports and process evaluations of funded impact evaluations start to become available

MAY 2014

Draft final reports of funded impact evaluations start to become available

NOVEMBER 2015 ONWARDS

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Longer term Outputs of the Climate Change Thematic Window

OCTOBER 2017 Systematic reviews updated with new evidence available

Increase in availability and use of evidence high quality evidence to inform climate

change programming

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WWW.3IEIMPACT.ORGThank you.

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Weather Insurance: Smallholder Farmer Access to Weather Securities

• Ongoing 3ie funded study that offers weather securities to farmers in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh

• Main impact question– What is the impact of access

of weather securities on a smallholder farmer’s consumption and production decisions?

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Community Driven Development in Sierra Leone

• The CDD seeks to build social capital, trust and capacity for collective action in the communities where it works

• This study adds to the growing body of evidence that these projects do not build social cohesion

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Attribute

Treatment

GroupMean

Comparison Group

Mean

T-statistic for test of Difference

(Comparison – Treatment)

% with public transport available all day

93% 89% -1.19

No. of days roads are closed 3.9 6.6 2.60**

No. using transportation to reach a primary school

2.1 2.1 0.04

Payment for transportation to Primary school (Quetzales per month)

58 74.5 1.84*

Avg. time taken to reach school (non-primary)

18.4 19.2 0.77

Avg. amt. paid for transportation to non-primary school (Quetzals

68.3 81.2 1.6*

Avg. time taken to reach a health center (any) – Minutes

51 53 0.6

Avg. amt. paid for transportation to reach a health facility (Quetzales)

33 90 2.85**

Average distance traveled to get wood. (Minutes)

68 62 -1.3*

Time taken to reach work 42 50 1.25*