PuntPal E-Newsletter Round 17 (2013)

7/28/2019 PuntPal E-Newsletter Round 17 (2013)

1/19

PuntPal 2013 (Round 17)

WWW.UFTIPPING.COM.AU

DISCLAIMER

PuntPal does not accept any liability for any betting decisions made on the basis

of this information. This newsletter does not constitute financial advice and

should not be taken as such. PuntPal is simply predicting who he believes will win

the games below and you are entirely responsible for the consequences of the

betting decisions you make.

REMEMBER

Please bet responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose. Never

bet with debt. Contact Lifeline (13 11 44) if you have a gambling

problem.

Do not distribute this newsletter without the express permission of

PuntPal. If you do distribute this newsletter, you are breaching the

terms and conditions of PuntPal membership and you will be cut

from the mailing list immediately.

And finally...

ENJOY THE FOOTY!!!


2/19


The Warriors are the most disciplined, only conceding 83 penalties this year. The Cowboys have made 2264m from Dummy Half runs this year, which is200m more than their nearest competitor and twice as much as Manly and the

Eels, who have made less than 1300m from Dummy Half.

The Cowboys, Wests, Souths and the Broncos have not kicked a 40-20 all year. The Roosters have missed the least amount of tackles this year (306), which is

26 less than their nearest competitor (332).

The Knights have kicked 12 penalty goes this year, the Raiders have kicked only1. Out of the 88 Penalty goals attempts this year, 79 have been successful.

There have been 68 field goal attempts this year, with only 19 being successful. The Dragons (202) and the Titans (197) have made the most offloads this year,

with the Knights (79) and Eels (91) making the least.

The Roosters have made the most drop outs this year (38), with Souths and theEels making the least (17).

The Knights have made the most metres from kicks this year (9671m), wherethe Sharks have made the least (6992m).


3/19


PUNTPALs ROUND 17 UFT SELECTIONS

Storm (20) Broncos (18)

Sharks (26) Wests (12)

Dragons (10) Roosters (24)

Titans (25)

Panthers (18)

Raiders (22) Cowboys (18)

Bulldogs (22) Knights (22)

Manly (30) Eels (6)

For the Punters

An average week, winning 3 and losing 2. The Broncos and Wests tips were good ones,

but although the Panthers won by a fair bit in the end, I was worried with 10 minutes

left and got a little lucky there! Raiders and Titans played their worst footy all year,

with the Titans at least having the excuse of suffering a key injury that was brutally

exposed!

I won $70 for the week, so my tally in 2013 is -$508.

For this week:

Bet $100 on Broncos +10.5 ($1.85) @ NSW Tab

Bet $200 on Sharks to win at $1.53

Bet $100 on Titans $1.80

Bet $100 on Knights +5.5 ($1.90)

Bet $100 on Manly -16.0 ($1.90)


4/19


These two teams battled it out in a surprisingly high scoring affair earlier in the year.

Although the Storm got the win in that game, the Broncos were probably the better


5/19


team and it was a few dubious calls that turned out to be the difference (remember the

Bryan Norrie holding onto Thaiday in the scrum!?).

The Broncos are in a position where they really need to start winning games like this.

Last week they came within a whisker of beating the Warriors and it was only an

intercept try to Hurrell and narrow penalty kick miss from Parker that saw them suffer

another agonising loss.

Both teams have named top notch outfits and I think the Broncos have again been

given too big of a start this week. I was on them with +8.5 last week against the

Warriors and I again think that size head start is too big in a match that I think will go

down to the wire. The Broncos have shown great ball security this year, making only

118 errors all year (best in the competition) and they also have best completion rate inthe competition (81%). In contrast, the usually mechanical Storm have made more

errors (161) than any other team this year (besides Cowboys and Wests)..

The big concern I do have for the Broncos, is whether they will be rubbed out of the

game by the refs. So far this year, the Broncos have conceded a whopping 111

penalties...the 2nd most in the competition. The Broncos have also missed 459 tackles

this year...the most in the competition (although missed tackles can be deceiving, as it

often comes down to a teams preferred defencive style, with teams that play up andin more often likely to miss more tackles).

The Storm, at home and with all of their stars lining up, should be too strong...but I

think that we are in for a ripper of a match.

Storm 20 Broncos 18

Bet $100 on Broncos +10.5 ($1.85)


6/19


After surgning back into contention during the middle part of the season, the Sharks

have lost their way in recent weeks. Last week they went down to a Cowboys outfit in

a match where the Sharks really looked like a rabble. They scored only one try and

Shane Flannagan has reacted by making some changes.

Luke Lewis moves out to the centres, in place of the dropped Ben Pomeroy...who hascontinued to make stupid errors and miss tackles all year long. Tupuo comes into the


7/19


8/19


Dragons fans should be fuming they are going to have to play without their star

fullback this weekend! In what is an absolute crunch match, Dugan was suspended

under the NRLs new shoulder charge system! I thought it was crazy he was charged

considering some of the ones that have been let go...but what makes it even more

annoying for the Big Red V army is that Dugan was urged by Coach Price to challenge

the charge and free for this match.


9/19


The risk being, however, that if Dugan was unsuccessful he would be ruled out of

Origin 3! Dugan, showing how much Origin matters to him (as well as the $30K bonus

for Origin players), opted not to contest the charge!!! Price seemed angry at the

decision by Dugan...and rightly so! The club took a big punt on Dugan and no morethan 6 weeks after being brought into the club, he is already showing that its all about

Dugan! The reason I disagree with this approach, is that I think he was about a 90%

chance of getting off!

Anyway, Adam Quinlan gets a run in Dugans place and the Dragons welcome back

Trent Merrin from his suspension. Up front the two Jacks (Stockwell and De Belin) are

starting, as Weyman has been unable to force his way back in and Hunt is injured and

having an unhappy year.

The Roosters defence has really been solid in recent weeks and a Dragons outfit

missing Dugan is a chance of not scoring a single point in this match! Their most

dangerous player is probably Runciman, who I thought looked great on debut last

weekend.

The Roosters have made more tackle breaks and line breaks than any other team. The

Dragons on the other hand, have made less line breaks that any other team besides

the last placed Eels. Dugan has made 15% of all the Dragons line breaks this year...so Ijust cant see the Dragons manufacturing enough points to be competitive here. They

are also missing their new goal kicker (Dugan!).

Roosters 24 Dragons 10

No bet


10/19


The Titans hopes in 2013 took a massive blow early on in their game against the

Knights last weekend. Star centre Idris has been ruled out for the year and his impact is

so immense that I think the Titans now may really fall away this year. They were

already short on talent out wide and his absence, along with the continued absence of

Taikarangi means the Titans are now using a makeshift centre pairing.


11/19


Dave Taylor is also injured again, so you have two of the Titans big guns now lining up

and the betting markets have been pounded accordingly. The Titans opened up big

favourites at about $1.40, but the money has all come for the Panthers, with the Titans

now only slight favourites at $1.80.

I do think the Titans should be favourites as the hot climate in Darwin will suit them

and they get back Nate Myles this week, who is sure to bolster their defence.

The Titans have a lot of depth and the two young guns they have brought up (Jahrome

Hughes and Hymel Hunt) have been tearing up the u20 competition. So far this year

we have seen a whole host of young outside backs thrive in the NRL...these two could

be the breath of fresh air that the Titans need.

This is exactly what has happened to the Panthers with the promotion of Matt Moylan.

Since his inclusion, this Panthers outfit has been cruising their way into contention for

the top 8. Easily the surprise packets of the year, the Panthers are a really consistent

team. Over the last 8 rounds of footy, they have maintained the best competition rate

in the competition at 83%. On the back of Walshs kicking game and the inclusion of

Issac John, the Panthers have cobbled together a team that can challenge anyone on

their day.

I think this game will be very close and if the Panthers forwards can stop the Titans

offload game, then they should really frustrate the Titans play makers and not allow

them the space they need.

But I think the Titans experienced pack will really aim this week and get the Titans the

win on the back of a much improved performance from their two halves.

Titans 25 Panthers 18

Bet $100 on Titans $1.80


12/19


The Raiders have really struggled in the past 2 weeks, with poor performances against

the Tigers and Bunnies. In both these games their halves (Campese and McCrone)

failed to control the game and they have not been throwing the right passes. Making


13/19


matters worse, the Raiders head into this match again missing their best two strike

weapons out wide in Lee and Ferguson.

Wighton has been named, but his highly doubtful and Sandor Earl is out for 6 weeks

with an injured elbow. So Coach Furner has moved Joel Thompson out wide to partner

Croker in the centres and I think that is a good move. With so many back rowers and

Thompson in good form, this move out wide may be just the trick to spark things.

I do think Milford has to come on earlier than he has been. Last Friday he came on

when they game was nearly already lost and as a result he was not able to play himself

into the game.

For the Cowboys, they are climbing their way up the ladder and although the bookiesare shortening them up on the back of Thurstons improving form, I still have some

doubts.

The Sharks really blew some chances last weekend and I think the Cowboys could be

exposed if the Raiders bring their best footy on a cold afternoon in Canberra. Matt

Scott is playing awesome, but the other forwards are all just going through the

motions.

If the Raiders markers defence is strong (the Cowboys make the most metres out of allNRL teams from the dummy half), then I think Thurston will be pushed for space and

the Raiders will win in a tight one.

Raiders 22 Cowboys 18

No bet.


14/19


When these teams met earlier in the year, the Warriors were sitting dead last and

people were counting down the days until Elliott was sacked. I was one of the peoplethinking that the Warriors were gone for 2013 and it now amazes me that we head into


15/19


this match with the Warriors a legitimate chance of upsetting the Premiership

favourites. But the Warriors narrow defeat to Souths over in NZ in Round 5 was surely

the turning point for the Warriors. After that they started playing good footy week in

and week out, despite continuing to lose close games to the likes of the Raiders andStorm.

The Warriors have now 5 in a row and are within a whisker of making the top 8. On the

back of some rugged defence and the brilliance of Shaun Johnson, this Warriors team

looks like they are really clicking under their new coach.

But their opponents continue to step it up a gear and most people have them pencilled

as the premiers already. With one more origin game to go, there is always the risk

Inglis will suffer a serious injury, but I tend to agree that they will take a lot of beatingin 2013.

Against the Raiders they started both halves slowly, but once they go going they were

all over their opponents.

One concern was that Reynolds didnt kick at the end of the match, due to an ankle

injurybut that seemed to be more of a precaution.

BY taking this game over to Perth, the Bunnies have surrendered some of their homeground advantage, but in recent Perth matches the Bunnies have well supported and

this match should be no different.

Souths 24 Warriors 18

No bet


16/19


It seemed the Doggies were storming back to the top 4 after they beat Manly a few

weeks back, but in hindsight, perhaps that win was more reflective of the way Manly

are now struggling.


17/19


The Doggies performance before the bye, against the Roosters, was very poor. Playing

an understrength Roosters outfit, the Doggies were lucky to even come close that

night, with Cordner and SBW tearing them to pieces.

Admittedly, James Graham was injured that night and the Doggies were without their

creative play maker Josh Reynolds and their best outside back, Josh Morris. Still, I do

think some of the Doggies players are struggling to back up their form from last year.

Parrett for instance was a revelation after being let go by the Roosters in

2012however his form in 2013 has been well off. Mitch Brown is also struggling,

especially under the high ball.

The sluggishness of big Tony Williams is therefore everyone to see, and although

playing well, Greg Eastwood looks like he is carrying about 10 kilos more than heshould be.

All in all, I dont think the Doggies are anywhere near as good as they were in 2012 and

they are a long way off the likes of Souths, Roosters and the Storm.

This week they come up against a Knights team that really look like they turned a

corner last weekend. Although the Titans played poorly and sustained some injuries,

that was a brutal and dominant performance by a fired up Knights outfit. With Buderas

back, the forwards really aimed up in defence, with Scott, Smith, Mason and Snowden

bashing the Titans big pack all day long.

Although they conceded some soft tries later in the match, Bennett must have been

happy with what he saw from his backline, which were clinical in exposing the

weaknesses caused by the Idris injury.

The Knights absolutely smashed the Bulldogs back in Round 10 and I think the bookies

have gotten a little carried away installing the Doggies such big favourites in thismatch.

I cant split them and think this game is match of the round.

Bulldogs 22 Knights 22

Bet $100 on Knights +5.5 ($1.90)


18/19


19/19


issue and Cherry-Evans played a rare poor gamebut more importantly it was the

Stewart brothers that I think were really struggling.

Brett had been out for quite a while, so his timing was off for a reason, however Glenn

Stewart is taking a while to get going. Without a pre-season he is clearly struggling to

get his match fitness up to where it needs to be and as a result of his poor conditioning,

he is struggling in defence and making some poor decisions.

Brenton Lawrence and Brett Kite are still going well, but it is clear that Faaoso and

King are sorely missed. Although big George Rose is producing some quality, the

blokes looks like he has swollen Geoff Toovey whole and I am amazed he is able to

compete in the NRL with so much extra weight being carried.

But this week their team does look a lot strong, with Foran named and being back at

Brooky will ensure they get the rub of the green with the refs.

As for their opponents, what is left to say of the Eels?

They are dead-set certainties for the wooden spoon in my opinion and the markets

agree, with the Eels now odds-on favourites for the spoon.

With Hayne back, things will improve over timebut I do worry about his hamstring

and whether he will be anywhere near his best in this match.

If Hayne gets injured early and the Eels have to adjust, this could be a bloodbath.

I am predicting a flogging and think the minus it too small here.

Manly 30 Eels 6

$100 on Manly -16.0 ($1.90)

PuntPal E-Newsletter Round 17 (2013)

Documents

Transcript of PuntPal E-Newsletter Round 17 (2013)