PUMPKIN REGULAR ANALYSIS YEAR TO 21/02/2015. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and...

PUMPKINREGULAR ANALYSISYEAR TO 21/02/2015

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1. Market Overview

2. Demographics

3. Retail Health Situation by State

Agenda

This analysis is part of a vegetable consumer purchase data project funded by HIA using the vegetable levy and matched funds from the Australian Government. This report captures only Fresh Vegetables and excludes processed vegetables (e.g. Fresh Sweet Corn excluding Canned Sweet Corn; Fresh Beans excluding Canned Beans).

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HIGHLIGHTS

RECOMMENDATIONSPumpkin is posting promising growth and penetration momentum. Continue to leverage on this by focusing on delivering taste, variety, and ease of preparation (Colmar Brunton Project Harvest June 2014 – triggers for purchase). Further sales can be extracted from Young Transitionals and Independent Singles who are under-penetrated lifsetages for this vegetable.

Suggest Pumpkin usage even outside winter months to capitalise on non-winter/autumn meal repertoires such as summer/ spring salads, soups, and pasta dishes.

Woolworths has room to improve Pumpkin shopper conversion compared to Coles. Review in-store levers like supply, presentation, recipe suggestions, and price competitiveness. Homescan Price per kilo for Pumpkin sold in Woolworths is $1.10 more expensive than in Coles (MAT 21.03.15 vs YA)

Pumpkin represents 5.9% volume share and 3.0% value share of total Vegetables this year. Its buyer base has grown along with increased spend and consumption compared to last year.

Older Couples (Senior + Established) are the key buyers for Pumpkin; they account for more volume share than their share of buyers. Established Couples witnessed a decline in the number of Pumpkin buyers however, they increased their trips while Senior Couples exhibit the opposite trend.

Larger households (3 or more members) account for 49% of volume share while representing 44% of buyers. 5+ Members households are the only group to have witnessed buyer leakage.

Coles and Aldi witnessed double digit growth in value sales of Pumpkin, while Woolworths declined in terms of volume sales.

Woolworths converts around 52% of their buyers that buy Pumpkin to purchase the vegetable in their stores while this conversion rate is just over 54% for Coles.

WA is the only state where the consumption of Pumpkin has gone down this year, however, it has added the most number of Pumpkin buying households to the buyer base.

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Market OverviewPumpkin

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Share of Market VolumeTotal VegetablesAustralia

Share of Market ValueTotal VegetablesAustralia

Pumpkin has gained volume share and now represents 5.9% of total Vegetable volume. Its value market share remains stable at 3.0% this year.

Source: Nielsen Homescan

Last Year This Year

23.9% 24.1%

22.8% 22.4%

11.0% 10.6%

10.1% 10.1%

5.6% 5.3%3.1% 3.2%2.2% 2.3%4.9% 5.1%

10.8% 11.1%

5.6% 5.9%

Last Year This Year

40.9% 41.0%

11.4% 11.5%

14.2% 14.0%

4.2% 4.1%3.9% 4.2%

7.8% 7.6%

7.5% 7.5%

2.4% 2.7%4.7% 4.5%

3.0% 3.0%

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T. Vegetables T. Pumpkin Potatoes Sweet Potato/Ku-

mara

Carrots Sweet Corn Broccoli/Broccol-ini

365.3

14.343.8

13.3 18.3 13.5 20.7

380.5

15.046.1

15.9 18.0 14.0 21.4


mara


88.9

6.6

21.2

6.6 10.13.2 5.2

87.4

6.720.7

6.9 10.23.3 5.1


mara


99.7

75.9

95.0

64.8

94.5

54.6

76.3

99.6

76.3

94.3

63.6

94.5

54.4

75.9

How many Households buy

annually?

How much (Kg) do they buy per year?

How much ($) do they spend per year?


This YearLast year

Pumpkin witnessed a rise the number of buying households, annual $ spend as well as consumption compared to last year.

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How much ($) do they spend per occasion?

How much (Kg) do they buy per occasion?

How often do they buy annually?

Rise in the average spend and consumption is due to the Pumpkin buyers purchasing greater volume and spending more $ in every trip, offsetting a slight decline in their purchase compared to last year.



mara


50.4

6.412.2

5.7 11.45.2 9.9

50.7

6.3 11.96.0 11.2

5.2 9.8


mara


1.77

1.04

1.74

1.170.89

0.62 0.53

1.73

1.06

1.74

1.160.91

0.640.52


mara


7.25

2.24

3.59

2.331.61

2.582.08

7.51

2.38

3.87

2.661.60

2.672.19

This YearLast year

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9Source: Nielsen Homescan

4 W

/E 2

3/03

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

0/04

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

8/05

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

5/06

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

3/07

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

0/08

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

7/09

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

5/10

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

2/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 3

0/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

8/12

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

5/01

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/02

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/03

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

9/04

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

7/05

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

4/06

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

2/07

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

9/08

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

6/09

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

4/10

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

1/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

9/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

7/12

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

4/01

/201

5

4 W

/E 2

1/02

/201

5

26.831.1

33.4 33.8 32.730.0 28.6

25.9 26.0 24.8 25.122.3 23.8

25.9

30.6 31.1 32.1 32.8 31.429.3

26.1 26.123.4

25.823.8 24.5

1.31.4

1.5 1.5 1.5 1.51.4 1.4

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.2 1.21.3

1.41.5 1.6

1.71.6

1.41.3

1.3

1.21.2 1.2

1.3

Penetration of households Average volume per household every 4 weeks

Kg

More households purchased Pumpkin in Feb ‘15 compared to Feb ‘14, along with a slight rise in their consumption.

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4 W

/E 2

3/03

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

0/04

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

8/05

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

5/06

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

3/07

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

0/08

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

7/09

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

5/10

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

2/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 3

0/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

8/12

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

5/01

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/02

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/03

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

9/04

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

7/05

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

4/06

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

2/07

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

9/08

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

6/09

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

4/10

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

1/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

9/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

7/12

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

4/01

/201

5

4 W

/E 2

1/02

/201

5

26.831.1

33.4 33.8 32.730.0 28.6

25.9 26.0 24.8 25.122.3 23.8

25.9

30.6 31.1 32.1 32.8 31.429.3

26.1 26.123.4

25.823.8 24.5

2.7 2.6 2.62.9 2.9

3.2 3.12.9

3.0 3.0

3.5 3.5

3.2 3.2 3.13.4

3.23.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1

2.93.1 3.1

3.2

Penetration of households Average $ spend per household every 4 weeks

However the average monthly spend per household on Pumpkin remained stable in Feb ‘15, compared to same period last year.

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4 W

/E 2

3/03

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

0/04

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

8/05

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

5/06

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

3/07

/201

3

4 W

/E 1

0/08

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

7/09

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

5/10

/201

3

4 W

/E 0

2/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 3

0/11

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

8/12

/201

3

4 W

/E 2

5/01

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/02

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

2/03

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

9/04

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

7/05

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

4/06

/201

4

4 W

/E 1

2/07

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

9/08

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

6/09

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

4/10

/201

4

4 W

/E 0

1/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

9/11

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

7/12

/201

4

4 W

/E 2

4/01

/201

5

4 W

/E 2

1/02

/201

5

2.7 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.03.5 3.5

3.2 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2

2.06 2.01 1.93

2.14 2.172.32 2.31

2.22 2.27 2.29

2.812.70

2.532.45

2.342.46

2.342.46 2.40 2.42 2.39 2.36

2.19

2.42 2.39 2.43

1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Average $ spend per household every 4 weeks $ spend per purchase occasion Average purchase occasions every 4 weeks


There is a $0.10 drop in spend per occasion, however, the number of monthly trips taken to purchase Pumpkin remain the same.

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DemographicsPumpkin

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PumpkinDistribution of BuyersAustralia

PumpkinDistribution of VolumeAustralia

Last Year This Year

7% 7%

10% 10%

14% 14%

8% 8%

18% 18%

23% 23%

19% 20%

Last Year This Year

7% 7%

10% 9%

16% 15%

6% 6%

14%14%

24% 25%

24% 25%

Older Couples (Senior + Established) make up half of the volume sales with 43% of buyers and have increased their importance compared to last year.

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annually?

Senior Couples added buyers while Established Couples witnessed buyer leakage this year. Although there was a decrease this year, Senior Couples still visit the stores most often amongst all groups. Established Couples increased their purchase frequency.



ALL SHOPPERS START UP FAM-ILIES

SMALL SCALE FAMILIES

BUSTLING FAMILIES

YOUNG TRANSITION-

ALS

INDEPENDENT SINGLES

ESTABLISHED COUPLES

SENIOR COUPLES

75.983.4 78.5 78.7

67.0 63.878.8

86.076.3 81.6 77.9 80.3

67.3 63.778.7

86.5



BUSTLING FAM-ILIES

YOUNG TRANSITION-

ALS

INDEPENDENT SINGLES

ESTABLISHED COUPLES

SENIOR COUPLES

6.4 6.2 6.1 6.2

4.75.9 6.3

7.9

6.3 6.0 5.56.2

4.75.8

6.67.7



BUSTLING FAM-ILIES

YOUNG TRANSITION-

ALS

INDEPENDENT SINGLES

ESTABLISHED COUPLES

SENIOR COUPLES

1.04 1.03 1.09 1.151.01

0.881.07 1.031.06 1.04

1.14 1.121.04

0.921.10 1.08

This YearLast year

Note: The difference in the bar heights for same data labels is due to the difference in decimal points. The data has been rounded up to one decimal point. Source: Nielsen Homescan

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Last Year This Year

56% 56%

17% 17%

17% 17%

11% 10%

Last Year This Year

51% 52%

18% 19%

19% 18%

12% 12%

Larger households (3 or more members) make up 44% of the buyer base yet account for 49% of volume share of Pumpkin.

PumpkinDistribution of BuyersAustralia

PumpkinDistribution of VolumeAustralia

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annually?



ALL SHOPPERS HH SIZE 1-2 MEMBERS HH SIZE 3 MEMBERS HH SIZE 4 MEMBERS HH SIZE 5+ MEMBERS

75.9 71.981.0 81.8 82.9

76.3 72.781.5 82.5 80.2


6.4 6.2 6.7 6.4 6.46.3 6.26.8

6.3 6.6


1.04 0.971.06 1.13 1.18

1.06 1.01 1.09 1.14 1.17

This YearLast year

Note: The difference in the bar heights for same data labels is due to the difference in decimal points. The data has been rounded up to one decimal point. Source: Nielsen Homescan

The household erosion amongst 5+ Member households was offset by the buyer gains amongst other groups.

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Retail HealthSituation by StatePumpkin

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Share by RetailersThis yearPumpkin

Sales vs. Last yearThis year vs. Last yearPumpkin

Volu

me

Valu

e


22%

4%

6%

8%31%

28%

30%

5%

8%9%

20%

27%

1%

14%

8%

0%

-4%

13%

4%

3%

17%

13%

4%

7%

10%

7%

Pumpkin delivers +7% value growth driven by growth across all retailers. Woolworths declined in volume sales this year, curbing the overall Pumpkin growth to +4%.

Other Supermarkets

Non Supermarkets

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Source: Nielsen Homescan Total Market: AUS Shared to: T. Fresh Frt Veg Dried Frt Nut Condition: Defined Market: AUS Defined Product: T. Fresh Frt Veg Dried Frt Nut Defined Fact: Purchase Value Defined Period: MAT TO 21/02/2015

Copyright © Page 1 of 1

Homescan isights v3.0 .Dictionary v1.5


Woolworths is converting 52% of its Pumpkin-buying shoppers to purchase the crop within its stores.

Account Shopper ConversionYear to 21/02/2015| Woolworths (WW)

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Source: Nielsen Homescan Total Market: AUS Shared to: T. Fresh Frt Veg Dried Frt Nut Condition: Defined Market: AUS Defined Product: T. Fresh Frt Veg Dried Frt Nut Defined Fact: Purchase Value Defined Period: MAT TO 21/02/2015

Copyright © Page 1 of 1

Homescan isights v3.0 .Dictionary v1.5


Coles is performing a bit better as it is able to convert more than 54% of its Pumpkin-buying shoppers to buy it at their stores.

Account Shopper ConversionYear to 21/02/2015| Coles

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76.6 76.4

7.4 7.4

SA + NT (8%)

VIC (28%)

NSW (31%)

QLD (20%)

WA (10%)

Average KG per Buyer

Penetration of householdsThis year vs. Last year

( ) State share of Pumpkin $ sales

Is there a particular State driving the category performance?


75.9 80.4

6.96.2

79.1 77.8

6.5 7.1

73.6 74.2

6.0 6.3

75.4 76.5

6.2 6.4SA+NT, QLD and NSW state buyers of Pumpkin witnessed an increase in consumption, compared to last year.

WA added the most number of Pumpkin-buying households this year, but has seen a sharp drop in average consumption due to the entry of lighter buyers.

THANK YOU

PUMPKIN REGULAR ANALYSIS YEAR TO 21/02/2015. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and...

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Transcript of PUMPKIN REGULAR ANALYSIS YEAR TO 21/02/2015. Copyright ©2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and...