Pulse of Southern Maryland Fall 2016 Presidential Outlook · The results of that survey are...

Pulse of Southern Maryland

Fall 2016 Presidential Outlook

Summary

January 2017

Planning, Institutional Effectiveness, and Research Department

Pulse of Southern Maryland Fall 2016

Presidential Outlook Summary

From November 7 – 10, 2016, student volunteers at the College of Southern Maryland performed a telephone survey of residents in the Southern Maryland region (residents of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s counties). The volunteers made 252 successful calls (completed surveys meeting screening criteria – resident of the Southern Maryland region and at least 18 years of age) which yields a margin of error of ±6.2% based on the region’s population.

Analysis of the calls shows that the proportion of successful calls from Calvert County residents (19.4%), Charles County residents (47.6%), and St. Mary’s County residents (32.9%) nearly mirrored the proportion of those county populations to the Southern Maryland regional population except for Calvert County. Regionally, Calvert County’s population is 25.5% of the region’s population, Charles County’s population is 43.5% of the region’s population; and St. Mary’s County’s population is 31.0% of the region’s population. The survey results slightly overrepresent residents of Charles and St. Mary’s Counties and underrepresent residents of Calvert County.

The Pulse of Southern Maryland survey consisted of broad questions regarding the presidential outlook and respect for law enforcement. This document summarizes the questions regarding presidential outlook which were as follows:

1. How do you feel about the future of the United States? 2. What do you think should be the most important issue addressed by the president? 3. What quality in a president is most important to you? 4. Will you or did you vote in this year's presidential election? 5. What type of media was most influential in making your decision? 6. Did the debates affect your presidential choice?

These survey questions were also asked on a Pulse of Southern Maryland survey conducted in fall 2012. The results of that survey are compared to the most recent survey results in this document. Graphs of the overall results to these questions can be found on pages 5 through 7, and detailed frequencies of the 2016 overall results can be found in the appendix on pages 8 and 9. A copy of the survey instrument can also be found in this document, beginning on page 10.

As stated at the beginning of this document, the results shown in this document reflect the responses from respondents who met the screening criteria. Based on the sample size of the 2016 survey, segmented results by demographics such as county of residence, age groupings, income levels, become less reliable as the margins of error increase (e.g., sampling error was ±6.2% for the region and increased to ±14.0% when examining Calvert County results exclusively) and are not included in the analysis.

Planning, Institutional Effectiveness, and Research (PIER) January 2017

Pulse of Southern Maryland - Presidential Outlook Summary - Fall 2016 1 of 11

Overall Results

How do you feel about the future of the United States?

2012 2016

Change (pct pts)

Very/somewhat confident 40.6% 41.4% 0.8% Very/somewhat pessimistic 41.7% 37.1% -4.6%

When asked how they felt about the future of the United States, respondents were fairly evenly split between optimism (41.4% very/somewhat confident) and pessimism (37.1% somewhat/very pessimistic) [see figure 1, page 5]. The 41.4% overall confidence rating is slightly higher than the 40.6% confidence rating reported in the 2012 Presidential Outlook survey. 2016 respondents were also less pessimistic overall than the 2012 respondents, 37.1% vs 41.7% in 2012.

What do you think should be the most important issue addressed by the president?

2012 2016

Change (pct pts)

% Rank % Rank

Economy/jobs 64.3% 1 38.0% 1 -26.3% Deficit 14.8% 2 6.1% 5 -8.7% Healthcare/Medicare 9.6% 3 21.6% 3 12.1% Immigration 2.1% 5 7.8% 4 5.7% National Security 9.2% 4 33.5% 2 24.2%

As with the 2012 survey, 2016 survey respondents identified the economy and jobs as the most important issue to be addressed by the president – 38.0% of those surveyed [see figure 2, page 5]. However, the percentage of respondents in the 2016 survey who identified economy and jobs as the most important issue declined by over 26 percentage points compared to the 2012 survey, with more importance shifting to other issues. National Security, which came in fourth in 2012 at 9.2%, was the second most frequently cited issue among 2016 respondents. Over one-third responding (33.5%) chose National Security as the most important issue to be addressed by the president, a 24 percentage point increase from the 2012 survey. Healthcare/Medicare gained in importance among respondents. While it ranked third in both the 2012 and 2016 surveys, over one-fifth surveyed (21.6%) identified Healthcare/Medicare as the most important issue in 2016, a 12 percentage point increase from the 2012 survey. Immigration came in fourth among 2016 respondents – 7.8% chose this response as the most important issue. The Deficit, which was the second most cited issue among 2012 respondents at 14.8%, was the least cited issue among 2016 respondents. Only 6.1% of 2016 respondents identified the Deficit as the most important issue to be addressed by the president, a nearly 9 percentage point decline from 2012.



What quality in a president is most important to you?

2012 2016

Change (pct pts)

% Rank % Rank

Communication skills 7.0% 5 10.4% 4 3.4% Experience 13.4% 4 14.4% 3 1.0% Foreign policy knowledge 5.7% 6 8.0% 6 2.3% Integrity 43.9% 1 41.6% 1 -2.3% Knowledge of economics 14.8% 3 10.4% 4 -4.4% Other 15.3% 2 17.6% 2 2.3%

Opinions about what quality in a president is most important have not changed much since the 2012 survey [see figure 3, page 6]. As in the 2012 survey, nearly half of respondents (41.6%) in the 2016 survey felt that the most important quality in a president is integrity which again ranked first by far in the list of qualities in the question. Ranked second again was something other than the specific qualities listed in the survey. There was some movement in the rankings with the other qualities listed (e.g., a very slight gain of one percent in those selecting experience and a drop of four percent in those selecting knowledge of economics), but generally, integrity is clearly the quality most respondents considered most important for a president to have.

Will you or did you vote in this year's presidential election?

2012 2016

Change (pct pts)

Yes 87.5% 89.6% 2.1% No 12.5% 10.4% -2.1%

Similar to 2012, the vast majority of respondents (89.6%) indicated that they voted or will vote in the presidential election [see figure 4, page 6].

What type of media was most influential in making your decision?

2012 2016

Change (pct pts)

% Rank % Rank

Friends/co-workers 6.6% 5 4.3% 6 -2.3% Internet 17.1% 2 15.7% 2 -1.4% Newspaper 15.5% 3 11.9% 3 -3.6% Radio 5.5% 6 5.2% 5 -0.2% Social media 6.7% 4 9.0% 4 2.3% Television 48.6% 1 54.8% 1 6.1%

As with the 2012 respondents, television was once again the type of media that was most frequently cited by 2016 respondents who indicated that they voted (or will vote) as the most influential in



making their choice for president, with over one-half (54.8%) selecting that choice, an increase of six percentage points [see figure 5, page 7]. The 2016 responses were very similar to the 2012 responses for the other media types – ranked second again was the internet, with fifteen percent (15.7%) choosing that response. This reflected a small decline from the 2012 survey, but when combined with social media (9.0%), actually increases slightly to nearly one-quarter of respondents (24.7%). In the 2016 survey, nearly twelve percent (11.9%) chose newspaper, a slight decline from the 2012 survey. Radio and friends/co-workers were again least influential among 2016 respondents, with 5.2% and 4.3% selecting those choices, respectively.

Did the debates affect your presidential choice?

2012 2016

Change (pct pts)

Yes 24.0% 37.5% 13.5% No 76.0% 62.5% -13.5%

The debates had more impact on respondents’ decisions in the 2016 survey compared to the 2012 survey. While the majority of respondents (62.5%) again stated that the debates did not affect their choice for president, the percentage who stated that it did affect their choice grew from 24 percent to nearly 38% (37.5%) [see figure 6, page 7].



Figure 2. What do you think should be the most important issue addressed by the president? a

aAlthough respondents were requested to give one response, some respondents gave more than one response to this question. The percentages displayed reflect the responses as a percent of the total number of respondents to the question.

Figure 1. How do you feel about the future of the United States?

Pulse of Southern MarylandFall 2016

Graphs of Total ResponsesPresidential Outlook Questions

38.0%

33.5%

21.6%

7.8% 6.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Economy/jobs National Security Healthcare/Medicare Immigration Deficit

Very confident 17.5%

Somewhat confident

23.9%

Neutral 21.5%

Somewhat pessimistic

19.1%

Very pessimistic 17.9%





Figure 3. What quality in a president is most important to you? a

Figure 4. Will you or did you vote in this year's presidential election?


41.6%

17.6% 14.4%

10.4% 10.4% 8.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Integrity Other Experience CommunicationSkills

Knowledge ofeconomics

Foreign policyknowledge

Yes 89.6%

No 10.4%





Figure 5. What type of media was most influential in making your decision? a

Figure 6. Did the debates affect your presidential choice? a

aThis figure includes only those repondents who answered 'yes' to question 4.

aAlthough respondents were requested to give one response, some respondents gave more than one response to this question. The percentages displayed reflect the responses as a percent of the total number of respondents to the question. This figure includes only those repondents who answered 'yes' to question 4.

54.8%

15.7% 11.9%

9.0% 5.2% 4.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Television Internet Newspaper Social media Radio Friends / co-workers

Yes 37.5%

No 62.5%



Table 1.

Frequency %Very confident 44 17.5%Somewhat confident 60 23.9%Neutral 54 21.5%Somewhat pessimistic 48 19.1%Very pessimistic 45 17.9%Total 251 100.0%No Response 1

Table 2.

Frequency %Economy/jobs 93 38.0%Deficit 15 6.1%Healthcare/Medicare 53 21.6%Immigration 19 7.8%National Security 82 33.5%Total Responses 262Total Respondents 245No Response 7

Table 3.

Frequency %Communication Skills 26 10.4%Experience 36 14.4%Foreign policy knowledge 20 8.0%Integrity 104 41.6%Knowledge of economics 26 10.4%Other 44 17.6%Total Responses 256Total Respondents 250No Response 2


Presidential Outlook Questions

How do you feel about the future of the United States?

Appendix: Frequencies

What do you think should be the most important issue addressed by the president? (choose only 1 response) a


What quality in a president is most important to you? (choose only 1 response) a





Presidential Outlook QuestionsAppendix: Frequencies

Table 4.

Frequency %Yes 224 89.6%No 26 10.4%Total 250No Response 2

Table 5.

Frequency %Friends/co-workers 9 4.3%Internet 33 15.7%Newspaper 25 11.9%Radio 11 5.2%Social media 19 9.0%Television 115 54.8%Total Responses 212Total Respondents 210No Response 42

Table 6.

Frequency %Yes 84 37.5%No 140 62.5%Total 224 100.0%No Response 0aThis table includes only those repondents who answered 'yes' to question 4.

aAlthough respondents were requested to give one response, some respondents gave more than one response to this question. The percentages displayed reflect the responses as a percent of the total number of respondents to the question. This table includes only those repondents who answered 'yes' to question 4.

Did the debates affect your presidential choice?

Will you or did you vote in this year's presidential election?

What type of media was most influential in making your decision? (choose only 1 response) a



College of Southern Maryland Pulse of Southern Maryland Survey

November 7 – 10, 2016 Name Time Called

Topic 1: Presidential Outlook 1. How do you feel about the future of the United States?

Very confident

Somewhat confident

Neutral

Somewhat pessimistic

Very pessimistic

2. What do you think should be the most important issue addressed by the president? (choose only 1 response)

Economy/jobs

Deficit

Healthcare/Medicare

Immigration

National Security

3. What quality in a president is most important to you? (choose only 1 response)

Communication skills

Experience

Foreign policy knowledge

Integrity

Knowledge of economics

Other

4. Will you or did you vote in this year’s presidential election?

Yes (continue to question 5)

No (skip to topic 2, question 1 – turn page)

5. What type of media was most influential in making your decision? (choose only 1 response)

Friends/co-workers

Internet

Newspaper

Radio

Social media

Television

6. Did the debates affect your presidential choice?

Yes

No

(TURN PAGE)

Screening Questions

1. Are you at least 18 years of age? Yes No

2. In which county do you live? Calvert Charles St. Mary’s Other

If the answer to either question is “No” or “Other”, do not continue. Thank the caller, and hang up.



Topic 2: Respect for Law Enforcement

1. How much respect do you have for your Sheriff’s Office?

A great deal

Quite a lot

Some

Very little

None

2. How much respect do you have for the court system?

A great deal

Quite a lot

Some

Very little

None

3. How would you say your Sheriff’s Office treats minorities?

Very fairly

Fairly

Unfairly

Very unfairly

4. Which would you prefer to see in your local area? (choose only 1 response)

A larger Sheriff’s Office presence than currently exists

No change

A smaller Sheriff’s Office presence than currently exists

Demographic Questions 1. What is your gender?

Male

Female

Not answered (Do NOT read)

2. What is your age group? (read list – choose only 1 response)

18-24

25-29

30-39

40-49

50-59

60 and over


3. What is your annual household income? (read list – choose only 1 response)

Up to $30,000

$30,000 - $60,000

$60,000 - $100,000

Over $100,000


4. Do you feel that the College of Southern Maryland is a valuable resource for the community?

Yes

No



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