Puget Sound CFL Saturation Study

Regional Technical Forum MeetingNovember 9, 2007

Puget Sound CFL Saturation Study

• Study Review– Research Objectives & Questions– Approach & Process

• Research Outcomes– Key Findings– Key Opportunities & Recommendations

• Where We Go From Here

Presentation Overview

2

STUDY REVIEW

3

• To quantify standard (one-inch) screw-base sockets and the current placement of CFL bulbs, by room, fixture type, and control type; and

• To quantify the saturation of CFL bulbs and assess consumer likelihood of installing additional CFL bulbs where they have not already done so.

Research Objectives

4

• Remaining Potential – What is the remaining potential for CFLs by household,

room, fixture type and control type? – How much of this is technical potential and how much is

attainable?

• Future Program Design– How can the data and information collected through this

study be used to plan future utility programs focused on residential lighting?

Research Areas

5

Attainable Potential – the number of CFL bulbs individuals are willing to install today

Achievable (long term) - could be influenced by programs or media messages

Attainable (short term) - willingness to install CFLs today

Technical Potential – the number of CFL bulbs individuals could install today

Defining Potential

6

• Secondary Research Review (Sept – Nov ‘06)

– Identified key research questions to ask– Identified methodology pros and cons

• Mail-Based Survey (Nov ‘06 – June ‘07)

– Expert consult, pre-test & pilot-test– Response bias check (telephone interviews)– Data accuracy check (in-home audits)

Study Approach

7

• Introductory letter mailed to sample (Week 1)

• Survey packet mailed (Week 2…three days later)

– Cover letter– Survey booklet– Reference card– Return envelope– Incentive request card

• Reminder postcard mailed (Week 3)

• Respondents provided two weeks to return materials

Survey Implementation Process

8

• Telephone interviews conducted with 14% of (n=39) pilot non-respondents (285 out of 375 sent survey)

• In comparison to respondents, non-respondents are– ~ 10 years younger– Slightly more likely to own their house– The same on income, education, housing type and

gender Determined that no survey changes were required,

survey implementation began

Response Bias Check

9

Sample Disposition

Survey Population Utility Populations

Age (Median) 45-54 35-44

Education 62% College Degree 41% College Degree

Income (Median) $40,000-$59,999 $50,000-$74,999

Housing Type 66% Single Family 60% Single Family

Housing Tenure 75% Own 62% Own

Gender 54% Female 50% Female

• In-home audits conducted with 10 SnoPUD pilot survey respondents– ~40% under-reporting of sockets and CFLs installed– Saturation levels unaffected– Potential positive effect of utility staff presence on

willingness to install CFLs

• Manual review of data– From pilot: small change made to instruction card– From full survey: threw out 4% of (n=70) surveys for

“bad data”

Data Accuracy Check

11

KEY FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS

12

Key Finding #1

Opportunity exists for more CFL installations

13

Sockets, CFLs & CFL Saturation Levels

Sample Size

Number of Sockets Number of CFLs Installed

CFL Saturation Level

Average Median Average Median Average Household*

Total Service Area**

Puget Sound Energy 537 41.7 37 6.9 3 18.6% 16.6%

Seattle City Light 609 33.4 28 5.6 2 18.2% 16.3%

Snohomish County PUD

342 40.9 36 8.5 5 23.0% 19.7%

Total 1488 38.1 33 6.7 3 19.4% 17.1%

*Average Household Saturation = Avg of all reported household saturation levels; (HH1Sat + HH2Sat + … + HH1488Sat) / 1488

**Total Service Area Saturation = (# of all CFLs in service territory) / (# of all sockets in service territory)

Recommendation #1

Encourage installation of additional CFLs throughout the house.

15

Remaining Potential, Household

6.7

11.3

20.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

CF

L B

ulb

s

Remaining AdditionalTechnical Potential

Remaining AdditionalAttainable Potential

Number of CFL BulbsCurrently Installed

Remaining Potential, Rooms (weighted)

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.2

1.1

0.9

1.1

1.2

0.9

0.8

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.5

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.5

0 1 2 3 4 5

Kitchen

Living Room

Master Bedroom

Master Bathroom

Outside Areas

Basement, Laundry,

Workshop & Garage

Entry, Halls & Stairs

Dining Room

Other Bathroom

Other Bedroom

Family Room

Home Office

Weighted Average Number of CFL Bulbs

Number of CFL Bulbs Currently Installed

Remaining Additional Attainable Potential

Remaining Additional Technical Potential

Remaining Potential, Fixtures

4.31.6 1.5

7.6

3.61.6

13.2

5.6

3.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Surface Mount orHanging

Recessed Can Table or Floor Lamp

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

CF

L B

ulb

s




Remaining Potential Planning Estimates

Utility Total Number of Sockets

Total Number of CFLs Installed

Current Service Area CFL Saturation

Total Remaining Attainable Potential

Total Remaining Technical Potential

Puget Sound Energy 39,618,791 6,516,762 16.6% 12,576,394 20,525,563

Seattle City Light 10,506,785 1,712,325 16.3% 3,446,335 5,348,125

Snohomish County PUD 11,153,803 2,317,301 19.7% 2,574,620 6,261,882

Total 61,279,307 10,546,388 17.1% 18,597,349 32,135,570

20

Housing Type Sample Size Total Number of Sockets


Current Service Area

CFL Saturation



Single Family 362 34,077,477 5,697,819 16.8% 10,363,316 18,016,342

Multifamily 112 4,403,487 561,352 13.4% 1,921,930 1,920,205

Manufactured 53 1,137,754 257,591 22.7% 291,148 589,015

Total 527 39,618,719 6,516,762 16.6% 12,576,394 20,525,563

Remaining Potential Planning Estimates, Puget Sound Energy

21

Remaining Potential Planning Estimates, Seattle City Light




CFL Saturation



Single Family, Detached 366 7,153,264 1,240,331 17.4% 2,234,630 3,678,303

Apartment or Condo 118 2,379,488 331,174 13.8% 827,927 1,220,387

Duplex, Triplex or Fourplex 30 744,329 112,387 15.2% 334,396 297,546

Townhouse or Rowhouse 10 229,704 28,432 12.4% 49,383 151,889

Manufactured or Mobile 0 -- -- -- -- --

Total 524 10,506,785 1,712,325 16.3% 3,446,335 5,348,125

22

Remaining Potential Planning Estimates, Snohomish County PUD




CFL Saturation



Single Family, Detached

229 8,501,329 1,816,922 21.4% 1,839,832 4,844,574

Apartment or Condo 64 1,158,753 236,193 20.6% 226,419 696,140

Manufactured or Mobile 22 581,636 121,760 20.9% 172,336 287,541

Duplex, Triplex or Fourplex

12 555,472 136,191 24.4% 151,492 267,789

Townhouse or Rowhouse 8 356,613 6,234 1.7% 184,541 165,837

Total 335 11,153,803 2,317,301 19.7% 2,574,620 6,261,882

Recommendation #2

Continue to facilitate consumer purchases through utility CFL rebate

and coupon programs.

23

Consumer Purchasing Preferences - Coupons & Rebates

Today, are you more likely to buy CFL bulbs...?

Regardless of coupons or rebates

30%

Using a coupon or

rebate70%

Key Finding #2

CFL programs should be targeted

25

Recommendation #3

Develop a strategy that focuses on encouraging individuals in the

multifamily sector to try CFL bulbs for the first time.

26

Distribution of CFLs in Households

29%

17% 16% 16%14%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0 1-2 3-5 6-10 11-20 21+

Number of CFLs in Household

Perc

en

t of

Hou

seh

old

s

1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0

N u m b e r o f C F L s in H o u s e h o ld

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

Zero CFLs - Demographic Comparison

Apartments or Condos

Zero CFLs42%

One or More CFLs

58%

Renters

One or More CFLs

59%

Zero CFLs41%

Detached Single Family Homes

Zero CFLs23%

One or More CFLs

77%

Owners

Zero CFLs24%

One or More CFLs

76%

Recommendation #4

Promote the use of CFL bulbs in low saturation rooms in marketing

messages.

29

Average Saturation Level by Room

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30

Average Saturation

B, L, W&G

Family Room

Living Room

Kitchen

Home Office

Outside Areas


Master Bedroom

Other Bedroom

Dining Room

Master Bathroom

Other Bathroom

Ro

om

n=1067 0.27

n=651 0.25

n=1389 0.25

n=1372 0.24

n=415 0.24

n=1175 0.21

n=1037 0.20

n=1414 0.20

n=1217 0.18

n=1164 0.13

n=1148 0.12

n=943 0.11

High Lighting Energy Use

Medium Lighting Energy Use

Low Lighting Energy Use

Remaining Potential, Rooms (weighted)

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.2

1.1

0.9

1.1

1.2

0.9

0.8

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.5

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.5

0 1 2 3 4 5

Kitchen

Living Room

Master Bedroom

Master Bathroom

Outside Areas

Basement, Laundry,

Workshop & Garage


Dining Room

Other Bathroom

Other Bedroom

Family Room

Home Office

Weighted Average Number of CFL Bulbs




Recommendation #5

Promote and provide information on all specialty bulbs currently available

and continue efforts to promote development of specialty bulbs not

yet available in the market.

32

Specialty bulbs = anything but standard screw base CFLs

Sockets per Fixture Type, Household

Surface Mount or HangingRecessed Can

Table or Floor Lamp

Fixture Type

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

n=1488

24.86

n=1488

6.81

n=1488

6.43

• 18% of sockets are in recessed cans

• “Surface mount or hanging” fixtures and “table or floor lamps” may also require specialty bulbs

Saturation per Fixture Type, Household

Surface Mount or HangingRecessed Can

Table or Floor Lamp

Fixture Type

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

n=1481

0.18

n=942

0.22

n=1412

0.27

• Recessed can fixtures had saturation levels of 22%

• Saturation levels for sockets requiring specialty bulbs could not be calculated through this study

Sockets per Control Type, Household

On-Off Dimmer Sensor 3-Way

Control Type

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

n=1488

30.37n=1488

4.89

n=1488

1.04n=1488

1.71

• 20% of sockets are controlled by either dimmer, sensor or 3-way switches

• Specialty bulbs may be required to function with these controls

Sockets per Control Type, Dining Room

On-Off Dimmer Sensor 3-Way

Control Type

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

n=1164

1.97

n=1164

1.66

n=1164

0.02n=1164

0.06

• High energy use, low saturation room

• 45% of sockets controlled by dimmers

• Over 25% of household dimmer-sockets are located in the dining room

WHERE WE GO FROM HERE

38

Utility Collaboration

39

• Research– Lighting Research

– CFL Saturation Update– Other Research

– Other Programs

• Marketing

• Program Design/Delivery

• Product Development– Specialty Bulbs– Other

• Other?

Puget Sound CFL Saturation Study

Documents

Transcript of Puget Sound CFL Saturation Study