GGR348/1408:

C-Free Energy Supply

Chapter 1: Introduction

L. D. Danny Harveyharvey@geog.utoronto.ca

Recent relevant trends

Variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration March 1958-Nov 2014 (from at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii)

Source of data: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center

Extracting ice cores (vertical columns) from the Antarctic ice sheet

Variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration from AD 1000- Nov 2014

Source of data: Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center

Global industrial CO2 emissions, 1959-2013

Comparison of global industrial and land use CO2 emissions, 1959-2013

Source: Data from Carbon Dioxide Budget 2014, http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

Global mean surface temperature variation, Jan 1856- Nov 2014

Source: HadCRUT4 data from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/download.html

Temperature variations can be inferred from variation in the width, density and oxygen isotope ratios (O16/O18) of annual

tree rings in trees from appropriate locations

Temperature variations can be inferred fromOxygen isotope ratios in the annual growth rings of corals

Reconstruction of northern hemisphere or global mean temperature variation from tree rings and other proxy indicators

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Instrumental

Change in mean annual surface temperature (computed from the trend line) over the period 1901-2012 (from thermometer records).

Source: IPCC 2013, AR5 WG1, Fig. 2.12 (GISS results)

Minimum sea ice extent (occurring in Sept of each year), 1979-2014

Source of data: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado

Sept 2012

Global mean sea level rise, 1880-2010. About 21 cm SLR occurred over this time period.

Source: IPCC 2013, AR5, WG1, Fig. 3.13a

Calculated individual contributions to the global mean sea level rise from 1961 to 2008 (left), and comparison of the sum of individual contributions with the observed sea level rise (right)

Source: Church et al (2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 38)

Exhibit 1-62

Exhibit 1-59a: Athabasca Glacier, Jasper National Park, in 1907 and 1998

Exhibit 1-46:

Change in Greenland + Antarctic ice mass, 1992-2011. The rate of ice loss during the last period 2006-2011 is equivalent to

12 cm/century in terms of SLR.

Source: Shepherd et al. (2012, Science 338, 1183)

Climate Physics Background

• The Earth’s average temperature is determined by the absorption of solar radiation and the emission of infrared (IR) radiation. This is because temperatures naturally adjust to bring the two into balance (to make them equal)

• If absorption of solar radiation exceeds the emission of IR radiation, there is a net energy gain and temperatures will increase

• As temperatures increase, the emission of IR radiation increases – thereby reducing and eventually eliminating the surplus – that is, establishing a balance between absorption of solar radiation and emission of IR radiation, but at a warmer temperature than before.

Climate Physics (continued)

• CO2 and other greenhouse gases absorb IR radiation (this can be measured in the laboratory)

• This absorption of IR radiation is an example of a radiative forcing.

• Thus, the increase in their concentrations over the past 200 years unquestionably has a tendency to warm the climate by making the emission of IR radiation to space less than the absorption of solar radiation, thereby creating an energy surplus

• As temperatures warm in response to the initial radiative energy surplus, further changes in both solar and infrared radiation will occur, necessitating yet further changes in temperature

• These subsequent changes in radiation are referred to as radiative feedbacks

Climate Physics (continued)

The key radiative feedbacks are:

• The increase in the amount of water vapour (a greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere as the climate warms, which acts as a positive feedback – that is, amplifying the initial warming

• The retreat in the extent of ice and snow as the climate warms, allowing more absorption of solar radiation – another positive feedback

• Changes in the amount, location and properties of clouds, serving as either a negative or positive feedback (that is, diminishing or adding to the initial radiative energy surplus).

The eventual global mean warming for a particular increase in GHGs depends on

• the radiative forcing, and• the climate sensitivity, which can be defined as the

global mean warming associated with a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration or its radiative equivalent.

The climate sensitivity in turn depends on the various radiative feedback processes, the most important of which were outlined in the previous slide.

The approximation is made that the climatic responseto a GHG increase other than a CO2 doubling varies in direct proportion to the total radiative forcing.

Bottom line points:• There is a very strong body of evidence to indicate that

the climate sensitivity is very likely to fall between 1.5 C and 4.5 C

• The current concentration of CO2 (400 ppmv) is a 43% increase from the pre-industrial concentration of 280 ppmv

• Increases in other GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide and others) together trap about as much extra IR radiation as the increase in CO2 alone

• Thus, we have close to the equivalent of a doubling in CO2 concentration already when all GHGs are accounted for

Bottom line points continued

• Under BAU scenarios, we could eventually (by AD 2100) reach the equivalent of 4 times the pre-industrial CO2 concentration or more, that is, two doublings

• For each doubling, we can expect an eventual warming of 1.5-4.5 C global mean warming (that’s what the climate sensitivity is), or a total warming of 3.0-9.0 C

• Even 3.0 C warming would have severe impacts

• The warming so far (about 0.8 C) is small because of temporary partly offsetting cooling effects from pollution, and because the oceans are slow to warm)

Projected Impacts of Global Warming that are of concern:

• Widespread collapse of coral reef ecosystems with 1-2ºC global mean warming

• Possible collapse of the Greenland ice sheet with as little as 1-2ºC sustained warming, and almost certainly with 3-4ºC sustained warming

• Likely extinction of 15-30% of terrestrial species of life on Earth with 2ºC global mean warming by 2050, and 80-90% extinction possible with 5-6ºC warming by 2100

• Reduced agricultural productivity in some major food producing regions once local warming exceeds 1-3ºC

Projected Impacts (continued):

• Severe water stress in regions that are already short of water

• Potential increase in the severity of hurricanes• Acidification of the oceans as the oceans absorb CO2

(this is a geochemical certainty, and is independent of whatever changes in climate occur)

Future Industrial CO2 Emissions

C emissions under a typical business-as-usual scenario (upper line) and as allowed for stabilization at various CO2

concentrations (the lines with the numbers next to them) (the numbers are the allowed concentration in ppmv; we are currently

at 400 ppmv)

Primary power from fossil fuels under BAU (the 3 lower coloured regions) and permitted (black lines) with stabilization at 350-750

ppmv CO2 . Even stabilization at 750 ppmv requires major reductions from BAU emissions

Simplification of the preceding figure

Kaya identity for CO2 emissions:

Emission =

Population (P) xGDP/person ($/P) x

Energy Intensity (GJ/$) xCarbon Intensity (kgC/GJ)

Historically,

• GDP/P has been increasing by about 1.6%/yr averaged over the past few decades

• Energy intensity has been declining by about 1%/yr for the last several decades

Recent demographic projections see the human population peaking at as low as 7.8 billion in 2050 (20% chance of this value or less) or as high as 10.8 billion in 2085 (20% chance of this value or more). This is significantly lower than older projections.

Impact on gross world product (global GDP) of combining low and high population and GDP/P scenarios

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Figure 1.1b: Impact on world primary power demand of combining low and high gross world product scenarios (high

population and GDP/P or low population and GDP/P) with slow (1%/yr) and fast (2%/yr) rates of decrease in energy intensity

(solid and dashed lines, respectively).

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Figure 1.2a CO2 Emissions

High pop, high GDP/P growth, 1%/yr reduction in energy intensity

High pop, high GDP/P growth, 2%/yr reduction in energy intensity

Figure 1.2b CO2 Emissions

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Scenario 3a

Scenario 1

Scenario 2a

Scenario 4 Population& GDP/PDifference

EnergyIntensityDifference

C-Free Difference

Another way to attack this problem is to work out (using a model of the global carbon cycle) the fossil fuel emissions that are permitted at various times in the future if we are to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppmv. From that we can work out the primary power that can be supplied from fossil fuels (without exceeding the allowed emissions). The difference between the global primary power demand and that permitted from fossil fuels gives the required C-free power supply. The lower the future human population and GDP/P, and the faster the rate of reduction in energy intensity, the smaller the total future power demand and so the smaller the required C-free power supply.

Figure 1.3b Carbon-free power required in 2050 in limiting atmospheric CO2 to 450 ppmv

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Power, High Population and GDP/P scenario

Required C-Free PrimaryPower, Low Population and GDP/P scenario

Global Primary PowerSupply in 2005

Global C-Free Power in 2005

The key conclusion of Volume 1 is that, with application of all known and foreseeable options to reduce energy use, and taking into account the large regional differences in present day per capita energy use and thus in prospects for the future growth in energy demand, it is possible to achieve an average rate of reduction in the primary energy intensity of 2.7%/yr between 2005 and 2050. From the previous slide, this puts us in the region where the required new C-free power supply by 2050 is about 2-7 TW (2000-7000 GW), depending on the population and growth in average GDP/P

The C-free energy sources to be considered in Volume 2 are

• Solar energy• Wind energy• Biomass energy• Geothermal, hydro-electric and oceanic energy• Nuclear energy

• Fossil fuels with capture and burial of CO2

Growth in Photovoltaic (PV) capacity, 2004-2014

Abandoned and bankrupt golf course in Japan transformed into solar farm

Source: https://www.facebook.com/CollectiveEvolutionPage/posts/10153466122708908

Central tower concentrating solar thermal powerplant (CSTP) in California

Source: US CSP (2002) Status of Major Project Opportunities, presentation at the 2002 Berlin Solar Paces CSP Conference

Growth in concentrating solar thermal power capacity, 2006-2014

Figure 2.48 Integrated passive evacuated-tube collector and storage tank in China

Source: Morrison et al (2004, Solar Energy 76, 135-140, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0038092X)

Installation of flat-plate solar thermal collectors in Europe

Source: www.socool-inc.com

Growth in solar water heating panel area, 1999-2013

Growth in global capacity to generate electricity from wind, 1996-2013

Source: Global Wind Energy Council, annual update reports

Growth in offshore wind capacity (MW) and rate of installation (MY/yr), 2005-2014

Location and layout of the 576-MW Gwynt y Mor offshore wind farm, under construction in 2015

Source: Rodrigues et al (2015, Renew. Sust. Energy Rev. 49:1114-1135)

Wind turbine progression

• Onshore, up to 3 MW

• Offshore, sitting on the seabed, 2-5 MW

• Offshore, floating, 3-7 MW

A floating wind turbine prototype.

Source: The Guradian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/23/drifting-off-the-coast-of-portugal-the-frontrunner-in-the-global-race-for-floating-windfarms?CMP=twt_gu

Exhibit 9-39b: A different floating turbine concept

Source: The Guradian, http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/23/drifting-off-the-coast-of-portugal-the-frontrunner-in-the-global-race-for-floating-windfarms?CMP=twt_gu

From C. Macilwain (2010, ‘Supergrid’, Nature 468, 624-625)

A network of floating offshore wind farms proposed for the North Sea

Fukushima floating wind turbine platform

Source: GWEC – Annual Market Update 2014

7-MW floating wind turbines under construction near Fukushima, Japan, June 2015

Source: http://environews.tv/world-news/worlds-largest-offshore-wind-turbine-comes-online-near-fukushima-daiichi/

Trend in average PV module costs in the US

Source: Clean Energy Canada (2015)

Installed cost of residential PV systems in Germany and the US (and the common module+inverter cost)

Source: Seel et al. (2014, Energy Policy 69:216-226)

Electricity generating capacity at end of 2014

• Hydro: 1712 GW• Wind: 370 GW• Solar PV: 177 GW• Biopower: 93 GW• Geothermal: 12. 8 GW• CSTP: 4.4 GW• Total excluding hydro: 647 GW• Global capacity of all types: about 5000 GW

Atikokan powerplant in Ontario, formerly powered by coal, now 100% biomass-powered

Source: http://www.triplepundit.com/2015/01/photo-essay-look-inside-ontario-canadas-coal-biomass-power-plant-conversion/

Estimated breakdown of global electricity generation in 2014

Source: Renewables 2015 Global Status Report

Global New Investment in Renewable Power and Fuels

Source: Renewables 2015 Global Status Report

Global Renewable Energy Investment in 2014 by Technology