Public Opinion Why it Matters And How We Measure It Mark Penn 1/27/2014 1.

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Public OpinionWhy it Matters

And How We Measure It

Mark Penn1/27/2014

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Model of Presidential Decision MakingFor every decision Presidents consult a series of “desks”:

• Political Desk• Policy Desk• Congressional Desk• Special Interests Desk• Close Advisers and Friends• Desk of Public Opinion

The “5 Desks” Model

PolicyDesk

CongressionalDesk

SpecialInterest

Desk

Public OpinionDesk

PressDesk

PresidentialPolicy-Making

Process

MILEAGE STANDARDS

CARBON TAX

Why did we institute Mileage Standards even though economists recommend a Carbon Tax?

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Many Kinds of Public Opinion Research• Public surveys • Economic surveys• Government surveys• Exit polls• Presidential polls

Goals and structure of surveys differ based on what you are looking to discover

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Public Polls Are a Snapshot

• Right Track/Wrong Track• Presidential Approval• Political Horserace• Questions that follow headlines or current stories (Approve

or Disapprove of the healthcare plan?) • Public Polls frame the campaign about the campaign

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Economic Polls Track Key Metrics

• Track the unemployment level• Track inflation and the cost of goods and services• Track growth rates of investments and GDP• Various types of surveys of households, firms, schools,

hospitals and other market participants

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Exit Polls Have Created Havoc

• Americans believe in secret ballot• Turnout models can be off• Sample precincts governed by the Iron Law of Statistics• Can’t predict just anything (Ex. Wash Post predicted Bill

Clinton’s Impeachment wrong)• Shifting methodologies from Door to Door to Internet

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Presidential Polls Are Predictive

• Informed vs. uninformed public• Leading and biased by design• Focused on the message• Based on Swing vs. Base Voters, not all voters• Models: D+I-R. R+I-D. D+R+2xI.

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Not All Polls Are Created Equal

“An overwhelming majority of the American public, including half of Republicans, support government action to curb global warming, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times, Stanford University and the nonpartisan environmental research group Resources for the Future.”The New York Times/ Stanford U

niversity Poll on Global Warming, Jan 7-22

• Presidents cannot (and should not) rely on any kind of poll for their decision making

• Here is a recent example of a poll with bias and misreporting

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/31/us/politics/most-americans-support-government-action-on-climate-change-poll-finds.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share



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Bias & Misreporting

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Bias & Misreporting

“…the poll also found that two-thirds of Americans said they were more likely to vote for political candidates who campaign on fighting climate change.”

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Leading & Telescoping Questions

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Leading Questions / Socially Acceptable Answers

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Asking Questions

• You are a detective with limited questions to discover the answers you want

• What are the testable claims, arguments, and counter-arguments?

• Are there any hypotheses that you can test?

• Think of yourself as Sherlock Holmes

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Asking Questions

• Every word matters• Use clear easy words – the question should be easy to

understand• Don’t bias your questions – use a neutral question structure • Avoid double-barreled questions • Get the answer choices right

• Between green, black, grey, or sand -- Green wins• Get the scales right -- 2,3,4, 5, 7 or 9 point answers?

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Projective QuestionsHow reliably can you predict the outcomes? The stock market? The political market? Look at this prediction after impeachment president Clinton:

24. If the full House votes to impeach Clinton, what do you think Clinton should do: Fight charges in the Senate, or resign from office? Fight charges Resign from No in the Senate office opinion12/13/98 38 58 3

Source: Washington Post Dec. 14, 1998 poll on Bill Clinton’s impeachment

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/vault/stories/data121598.htm

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Projective Questions

How will voters react to a gov’t shutdown? To a healthcare bill? To Taxes?

How do you get at the truth?

Source: Democracy Corps Nov 6-7, 2012

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Be Careful When Polling Behavior

• Creating behavior questions is generally fraught with issues• Some examples

• Getting people to remember without telescoping• Getting people to admit behaviors they cover up in everyday life• Questions with socially acceptable / unacceptable questions • Asking the right question in the right specificity

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Questionnaire Design

• Gaining the confidence of the respondent in a two way relationship

• Be mindful of• Order of the topics you test• The order of your questions• Your response choice• The number of your questions• Your questionnaire Layout

• You want your respondent to complete your survey

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Key Elements of a Questionnaire

• Demographics• Age, Gender, Ethnic or Racial Background/ Heritage, Party, Marital

Status, etc.• Screeners

• Are you 18 years or older and registered to vote?• Did you vote in the national elections held last November?

• Sections • Determined by your research objectives• Examples: Public Mood, Ratings, Issues, Messages, Proposals, etc.

DEMOGRAPHICSHow groups voted in 2012

Source: CNN, Roper Center, Washington Post

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/how_groups_voted/voted_12.html

Types of Questions Political Polling Looks At• Voters (Base, Swing, Lapsed, Undecided, Against)• Direction (Right track/ Wrong track)• Public Concerns and National Priorities• Job Approval• Satisfaction/ Dissatisfaction• Candidate Favorability/ Horserace• Issue preferences, attitudes, and knowledge• Themes• Proposals• Media Channels• Independent forces• Receptivity to different messages

• Positives: Ways to frame issues / the candidate’s record• Negatives: Ways to frame the opponent’s record (opposition research)

Country Right Track / Wrong Track

In general, do you believe that things in the country are headed in the right direction or are they off on the wrong track?

Base Male Female WhiteAfrican-

AmericanLatino Dem Rep Indy

Right direction 28 30 26 23 46 34 49 11 21

Wrong track 62 63 62 70 36 50 37 84 69

Can’t answer 10 8 12 7 18 16 14 5 10

Economy Right Track / Wrong Track

In general, do you think the country’s economy is on the right track or on the wrong track?

Base Male Female WhiteAfrican-America

nLatino Dem Rep Indy

Right track 37 40 34 32 54 44 57 19 30

Wrong track 55 53 57 61 35 45 33 74 62

Can’t answer 8 7 9 7 11 11 10 6 8

Do you think the next generation will be better off or worse off than this generation of Americans?

Do you think the next generation will be better off or worse off than this generation of Americans?

Base MaleFemal

eWhite

African-

American

Latino

Dem Rep Indy

Better off 28 29 27 22 47 39 40 15 26

Worse off 57 57 57 64 33 43 42 73 58

Can’t answer 15 14 16 14 20 17 18 12 16

Most Important Issue Facing CountryWhat is the most important issue facing the country you think the government should do something about? Base Male Female White

African-America

n Latino Dem Rep IndyThe economy 29 30 29 28 21 41 27 29 33Immigration 10 10 10 10 9 10 7 14 9National security 10 8 11 10 5 9 7 14 8Inequality 7 7 7 5 19 5 11 1 8Education 6 5 7 5 10 6 7 4 6Values 5 4 6 5 2 5 1 8 6Healthcare 5 4 5 5 6 1 6 3 5Social security 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 5 3Healthcare 5 5 5 6 4 3 7 5 4The environment 5 5 5 5 4 6 8 2 5Taxes 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 4 3Energy security 1 2 1 1 1 4 2 0 1Other 7 9 4 8 5 2 4 10 7Can’t answer 3 3 3 3 5 1 2 2 4

Most Important National PrioritiesThinking about national priorities, which of the following, if any, do you consider being the most important and second most important national priority for our leaders to address? Base Male Female Dem Rep IndyBalancing the federal budget 33 36 31 26 42 33Making the government work more effectively 33 30 36 35 32 34Securing Social Security and Medicare for the next 75 years

30 29 30 33 28 27

Improving the healthcare system 23 19 26 26 20 22Reforming immigration policies 19 19 18 17 24 15Reforming the tax system 18 23 13 14 21 19Strengthening the education system in the U.S. 18 16 20 23 12 20Making the U.S. energy independent 15 17 13 15 14 17Increase high-return public investments 6 7 6 7 5 7Can’t answer 5 5 5 5 3 6

Support for Solutions to: Securing Social Security

The following proposals are potential solutions the federal government can implement to… For each, please indicate whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose that particular proposal. (%Total Support) Base Male

Female 50+ Dem Rep Indy

Eliminate the ceiling on the Social Security payroll tax so that all earnings—no matter how high—are included.

63 69 57 68 69 60 59

Raise the ceiling on income subject to the Social Security payroll tax so that 90 percent of earnings are included, up from the current 83 percent.'

57 63 52 62 64 54 54

Cut benefits for upper-income beneficiaries immediately. 50 52 48 53 53 44 51Index the retirement age to longevity so that the retirement age rises as we live longer.

47 50 44 37 47 50 43

Use a new formula for calculating cost of living increases, based on the actual spending patterns of seniors, that would reduce the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) increase by about 0.3 percent per year.'

47 48 47 38 52 46 43

Support for Solutions to: Balancing the BudgetThe following proposals are potential solutions the federal government can implement to… For each, please indicate whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose that particular proposal. (%Total Support) Base Male Female Dem Rep IndyRequire passage of the budget and all annual appropriations bills by the beginning of each fiscal year. If legislators fail to do this, stop paying them until they complete these tasks.'

79 83 75 73 83 82

Require annual disclosure of the long-term obligations of the federal government and the legislative changes to those obligations during the previous fiscal year.

76 81 71 72 83 73

In negotiations about a balanced budget, put the entire federal budget on the table—every spending provision and every feature of our tax code.'

75 78 72 69 82 74

Require a balanced operating budget—revenues equaling all expenditures except the interest on the national debt—by 2020.

73 77 69 68 80 70

Move to a two-year budget so that each Congress could spend one year on appropriations and the next ensuring the taxpayer dollars are being spent honestly and effectively.

69 72 67 69 69 69

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Polling Models

• How and why do different political factions view the same data differently?

• Different vantage points, goals, and perspectives• Democrats: Democrats + Independents - Republicans• Republicans: Republicans + Independents - Democrats• Centrist: Democrats + Republicans + 2x Independent

• Models are useful in understanding and building candidate positions and party platforms

GOALS: TOP 15, D+I-R (1 of 3)

National Priority

The following proposals are potential solutions the federal government can implement to. For each, please indicate whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose that particular proposal. (%Total Support)) D+I-R

Education Reform

Use information and financial aid to ensure that high-performing students from low-income families go to good colleges and complete their degrees.

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Energy Security

Use regulations to ensure that all forms of energy production—such as fracking and offshore drilling—do not create hazards or damage the environment.

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Energy Security

Use the government’s purchasing power to promote energy efficiency while protecting the environment.

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Energy Security

Invest in breakthrough energy technology, such as the ability to store power and to prevent emissions created by consumption of fossil fuels from damaging the environment.'

86

Energy Security

Strengthen construction codes so that houses and other buildings use energy more efficiently.

84

Energy Security

Use technology and incentives to allow individuals and businesses to shift their energy consumption to times in the day when demand is lower.

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National Priority


Securing Medicare

Reduce the cost of prescription drugs covered under Medicare by allowing the government to negotiate with drug companies.

82

Immigration Reform

Provide a path to permanent legal status for illegal immigrants in the United States who meet strict conditions such as maintaining a clean criminal record, paying a fine, learning English, paying taxes, and meeting work requirements.'

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Healthcare Reform

Increase funding for research on the treatment of chronic diseases, which are costly for individuals, employers, and the health care system.

80

Education Reform

Make computer science courses available to every middle and high school student by 2020.

79

Education Reform

Mobilize experts to design high-quality high school and college courses that teach students to absorb new information and solve unstructured problems—the two skills that today’s employers want the most.

79

Securing Medicare


82


National Priority


Government Performance

Ensure federal agencies have the talent and expertise to serve the public with timely and high-quality services. This means giving agencies the tools and resources they need to attract and hire critical talent.

79

Healthcare Reform

Create and implement a comprehensive plan to prevent and cure Alzheimer’s disease, which will afflict many millions of Americans as our population ages during the next generation.'

78

Education Reform

Provide new incentives for higher education institutions to focus on college completion as well as admission.

77

GOALS: TOP 15, R+I-D (1 of 3)

National Priority

The following proposals are potential solutions the federal government can implement to. For each, please indicate whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose that particular proposal. (%Total Support)) R+I-D

Balancing the Budget

Require passage of the budget and all annual appropriations bills by the beginning of each fiscal year. If legislators fail to do this, stop paying them until they complete these tasks.'

92

Energy Security

Use the country’s existing natural resources to become more energy self-sufficient and to keep gasoline and electricity prices low.

89

Energy Security

Approve the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to Nebraska to secure a cheap and reliable source of oil.

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Prevent Congress from passing budgets that would increase the national debt as a share of our economy.

87

Immigration Reform

Establish a mandatory tracking policy to monitor expired visas and reduce the number of temporary visitors who remain in the United States beyond their visa expiration date.

86


National Priority


Energy Security

Modernize the electric power grid to promote its reliability and ability to withstand shocks while protecting it against national security threats such as hacking by foreign governments.

85



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Immigration Reform

To reduce the number of undocumented workers, require the use of the most advanced electronic verification system to check the credentials of employees and job applicants.'

84

Tax ReformSimplify the tax code for small businesses, which pay taxes at the individual rate and are subject to complex reporting requirements.

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Require a balanced operating budget—revenues equaling all expenditures except the interest on the national debt—by 2020.

82


Pay federal employees consistent with the rest of the nation, paying no more or less than individuals in the same occupation, and reward employees for performance rather than tenure.'

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National Priority


Energy Security

Adopt an ""all of the above"" strategy by supporting the production of all forms of energy, including renewables such as solar and wind, fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas, and nuclear power.'

76

Energy Security

Adopt an ""all of the above"" strategy by supporting the production of all forms of energy, including renewables such as solar and wind, fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural gas, and nuclear power.'

76

Healthcare Reform

Reform malpractice laws by protecting doctors who practice in accordance with established evidence-based standards. .

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GOALS: TOP 15, D+R+2xI (1 of 3)

National Priority

The following proposals are potential solutions the federal government can implement to. For each, please indicate whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose that particular proposal. (%Total Support)) D+R+2xI

Energy Security

Modernize the electric power grid to promote its reliability and ability to withstand shocks while protecting it against national security threats such as hacking by foreign governments.

327

Energy Security

Use the country’s existing natural resources to become more energy self-sufficient and to keep gasoline and electricity prices low.

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Require passage of the budget and all annual appropriations bills by the beginning of each fiscal year. If legislators fail to do this, stop paying them until they complete these tasks.'

320

Securing Medicare


316

Education Reform

Make computer science courses available to every middle and high school student by 2020.

315

Immigration Reform

Establish a mandatory tracking policy to monitor expired visas and reduce the number of temporary visitors who remain in the United States beyond their visa expiration date.

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National Priority



Pay federal employees consistent with the rest of the nation, paying no more or less than individuals in the same occupation, and reward employees for performance rather than tenure.'

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Education Reform

Through partnerships of businesses, high schools, and community colleges, create 21st century programs of technical education and training that would allow students to earn both a high school and an associate’s degree in computer science and other STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) subjects.'

310

Energy Security

Strengthen construction codes so that houses and other buildings use energy more efficiently.

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Energy Security

Use regulations to ensure that all forms of energy production—such as fracking and offshore drilling—do not create hazards or damage the environment.

301

Immigration Reform

To reduce the number of undocumented workers, require the use of the most advanced electronic verification system to check the credentials of employees and job applicants.'

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National Priority




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Energy Security

Use technology and incentives to allow individuals and businesses to shift their energy consumption to times in the day when demand is lower.

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Education Reform

Use information and financial aid to ensure that high-performing students from low-income families go to good colleges and complete their degrees.

297

Public Opinion Why it Matters And How We Measure It Mark Penn 1/27/2014 1.

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