Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine · 4 Geographical Key Due to the Russian occupation of...

Public Opinion SurveyResidents of Ukraine

November 19-30, 2015

Detailed Methodology

2

• The survey was conducted by Rating Group Ukraine on behalf of the International Republican Institute.

• Data was collected throughout Ukraine (except the occupied territories of Crimea and part of the Donbas) between

November 19-30, 2015, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home.

• The sample consisted of 1,800 permanent residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is

representative for the general population by age, education, region and size of the settlement. An additional 1,284

respondents were also surveyed from Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Multi-stage probability sampling method was used

with the random route and next birthday methods for respondent selection.

• Stage one: 25 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (24 regions of Ukraine and Kyiv). All

regions of Ukraine were surveyed except the occupied territories of Crimea and parts of the Donbas region

(the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts not under the control of Ukrainian authorities).

• Stage two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes

according to their size:

• City more than one million residents

• City 500,000-999,000 residents



• City to 50,000 residents

• Village

• Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to

the share of the population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region.

• Stage three: Primary sampling units were described.

• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.3 percent.

• Response rate was 65.9 percent.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

• The survey was funded by the Government of Canada.

http://ratinggroup.ua/en/

http://www.iri.org/program/center-insights-survey-research

https://www.canada.ca/en.html

Detailed Methodology

• Data was collected throughout the Donbas region (Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) between November 19-30, 2015, through

face-to-face interviews at respondents’ homes.

• The sample consisted of 1,284 permanent residents of the Donbas region, aged 18 and older and eligible to vote. It is

representative of the general population by age, education, region and size of the settlement.

• Multi-stage probability sampling method was used with random route and next birthday selection procedures.

• Stage one: The Donbas regional territory was divided into Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The survey was conducted

in all parts of those two oblasts under the control of Ukrainian authorities.

• Stage two: The selection of settlements was based on towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes

according to their size:




• City to 50,000 residents

• Village

• Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the

share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region.

• Stage three: Primary sampling units were described.

• The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.

• Response rate was 59.7 percent.

• Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.

3

Donbas Oversample

4

Geographical Key

Due to the Russian occupation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, residents of Crimea

and the separatist-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts were not included in this poll.

Those areas with lines through them indicate territories not under the control of Ukrainian authorities.

Pessimism is High Following Two Years of Violent Conflict with Russia

Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?

6

13% 14% 15%

18%

34%

29%

15%17%

15%

8%

71%

66%69%

64%

48%51%

72%68%

70%

65%

16%20%

16%

17% 18%20%

13% 15% 15%

27%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

November2011

May 2012 May 2013 February2014

April 2014 September2014

July 2015 September2015

NationwideNovember

2015

DonbasNovember

2015

Right direction Wrong direction Difficult to answer/No answer

In your opinion, are the national authorities of Ukraine doing enough to keep the liberated areas of the Donbas within Ukrainian

territory?

7

3%

6%

18%

18%

32%

23%

32%

29%

15%

24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nationwide

Donbas

Definitely yes Somewhat yes Definitely no Difficult to answer/No answer

9%

11%

15%

3%

4%

3%

1%

33%

36%

40%

21%

20%

22%

9%

20%

19%

22%

34%

29%

28%

22%

27%

24%

13%

33%

40%

42%

56%

11%

11%

10%

8%

6%

6%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015

NationwideNovember 2015

Donbas November2015

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Strongly disapprove Difficult to answer/No answer

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko is doing?

8

12%

16%

13%

1%

2%

1%

1%

34%

36%

35%

10%

11%

11%

4%

17%

16%

27%

32%

29%

25%

17%

27%

24%

15%

52%

54%

57%

68%

9%

8%

10%

6%

5%

5%

10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015

Nationwide November 2015

Donbas November 2015


Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers under Arseniy Yatsenyuk is doing?

9

2%

6%

6%

3%

1%

11%

32%

33%

14%

9%

10%

10%

3%

30%

24%

24%

36%

35%

35%

31%

20%

50%

26%

26%

37%

49%

48%

52%

63%

8%

11%

11%

9%

6%

6%

7%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015




Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing?

10

What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government?

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

3%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

4%

6%

5%

4%

5%

7%

9%

5%

6%

8%

9%

9%

11%

11%

9%

13%

15%

16%

17%

17%

19%

18%

22%

23%

24%

28%

32%

13%

11%

13%

22%

11%

21%

23%

15%

29%

23%

19%

23%

16%

28%

26%

27%

26%

18%

20%

19%

58%

26%

56%

44%

20%

62%

52%

57%

38%

50%

33%

43%

52%

43%

41%

39%

34%

25%

31%

21%

13%

41%

13%

9%

44%

3%

8%

5%

1%

14%

2%

2%

1%

14%

2%

5%

10%

15%

9%

14%

13%

5%

10%

8%

13%

8%

16%

11%

9%

6%

7%

7%

13%

15%

14%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Former head of the Party of Regions faction Oleksandr Yefremov

Head of the Donetsk military-civic administration Pavlo Zhebrivskyi

Head of the opposition government Borys Kolesnikov

Leader of Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) Hennadiy Korban

Head of the Lugansk military-civic administration Georgiy Tuka

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk

Former governor of Dnipropetrovsk oblast Ihor Kolomoiskyi

MP, Leader of Opposition Block Yuriy Boyko

Head of Parliament Volodymyr Hroisman

Leader of Svoboda Oleh Tyahnybok

Former head of security services of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaychenko

MP, former leader of Right Sector Dmytro Yarosh

Businessman Rinat Akhmetov

MP, leader Radical Party Oleh Lyashko

MP, leader of Batkivshchyna Yuliya Tymoshenko

President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko

Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko

Governor of Zakarpattya oblast Hennadiy Moskal

Governor of Odesa oblast Mikhail Saakashvili

Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi

Very favorable Somewhat favorable

Very unfavorable Have not heard the name Difficult to answer/No answer 11

(Nationwide)

What is your opinion of each of the following Ukrainian politicians or members of the Ukrainian government?

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

3%

4%

13%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

4%

6%

6%

7%

7%

7%

8%

9%

10%

13%

13%

14%

20%

22%

18%

18%

18%

15%

21%

17%

20%

20%

26%

20%

13%

19%

19%

13%

14%

19%

13%

19%

12%

10%

66%

57%

65%

71%

53%

50%

61%

59%

46%

59%

35%

36%

57%

51%

41%

45%

48%

44%

45%

39%

1%

10%

1%

1%

1%

7%

1%

1%

4%

16%

17%

6%

10%

2%

7%

4%

4%

13%

13%

12%

10%

20%

21%

13%

14%

18%

13%

28%

20%

13%

19%

22%

20%

16%

16%

15%

15%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Leader of Svoboda Oleh Tyahnybok

Leader of Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) Hennadiy Korban

MP, former leader of Right Sector Dmytro Yarosh

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk

Mayor of Kyiv Vitaliy Klitschko

Former head of security services of Ukraine Valentyn Nalyvaychenko

Former governor of Dnipropetrovsk oblast Ihor Kolomoiskyi

MP, Leader of Batkivshchyna Yuliya Tymoshenko

Head of Parliament Volodymyr Hroisman

MP, Leader of Radical Party Oleh Lyashko

Head of Donetsk military-civic administration Pavlo Zhebrivskyi

Head of Lugansk military-civic administration Georgiy Tuka

President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko

Former Head of the Party of Regions faction Oleksandr Yefremov

Mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovyi

Governor of Odesa oblast Mikhail Saakashvili

Head of the opposition government Borys Kolesnikov

Governor of Zakarpattya oblast Hennadiy Moskal

MP, Leader of Opposition Bloc Yuriy Boyko

Businessman Rinat Akhmetov

Very favorable Somewhat favorable

Very unfavorable Have not heard the name Difficult to answer/No answer

<1%

12

1%

1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

(Donbas region)

In your opinion, the detention of the leader of the Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP) political party, Hennadiy Korban, is*:

13

27%

20%

40%

37%

33%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nationwide

Donbas

Fight against oligarchs and criminality Political persecution and selective justice Difficult to answer/No answer

*Korban was arrested by Ukrainian authorities at his home on October 31 before being released and re-

detained on November 3 on suspicion of involvement in organized crime, embezzlement and kidnapping.

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

11%

8%

14%

14%

13%

29%

28%

31%

37%

32%

57%

60%

51%

44%

47%

2%

2%

1%

3%

7%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015


Donbas November2015

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same

Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer

1%<1%

Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Ukraine changed?

14

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

6%

6%

9%

14%

8%

9%

8%

3%

4%

2%

1%

2%

2%

<1%

37%

39%

45%

37%

46%

41%

44%

46%

37%

19%

14%

18%

20%

20%

36%

34%

30%

27%

30%

30%

31%

29%

34%

37%

29%

34%

36%

37%

18%

18%

13%

15%

14%

17%

14%

18%

22%

40%

55%

45%

40%

40%

2%

3%

3%

5%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

2%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

September 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015



Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same

Worsened a lot Difficult to answer/No answer

Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation of your household changed?

15

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

7%

8%

13%

17%

8%

12%

9%

12%

10%

10%

9%

11%

7%

3%

30%

32%

35%

31%

38%

27%

20%

16%

13%

14%

19%

25%

21%

13%

32%

32%

26%

24%

29%

29%

31%

26%

26%

23%

24%

23%

32%

29%

17%

15%

11%

11%

12%

17%

28%

35%

43%

35%

27%

27%

23%

31%

13%

12%

14%

16%

12%

13%

12%

11%

8%

17%

20%

12%

16%

23%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

September 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015



Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same

Worsen a lot Difficult to answer/No answer

In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to change?

16

17

3%

4%

6%

5%

8%

9%

7%

8%

10%

13%

13%

30%

33%

37%

34%

36%

39%

41%

43%

45%

21%

53%

42%

47%

47%

45%

44%

39%

40%

35%

26%

7%

12%

7%

4%

5%

5%

7%

4%

4%

33%

4%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

3%

4%

5%

4%

5%

4%

3%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Russia

Moldova

United States

Germany

Canada

Lithuania

Georgia

European Union

Belarus

Poland

Very warm Warm Neutral Very cold Difficult to answer/No answer

1%

<1%

How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries? (Nationwide)

1%

18

2%

2%

2%

4%

2%

2%

3%

2%

9%

5%

15%

17%

20%

18%

20%

24%

25%

26%

30%

39%

40%

53%

54%

48%

54%

53%

50%

51%

31%

42%

24%

15%

10%

14%

6%

5%

10%

7%

14%

5%

10%

4%

4%

5%

2%

2%

3%

2%

6%

1%

9%

10%

11%

10%

15%

15%

9%

11%

10%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

United States

Germany

Lithuania

European Union

Canada

Moldova

Poland

Georgia

Russia

Belarus

Very warm Warm Neutral Very cold Difficult to answer/No answer

How do you evaluate your attitude toward each of the following countries?

(Donbas)

Which three of the following issues are the most important for Ukraine?

1%

1%

<1%

3%

3%

5%

6%

7%

11%

17%

18%

20%

21%

25%

25%

27%

47%

60%

2%

1%

1%

3%

7%

6%

5%

3%

12%

14%

22%

18%

26%

24%

23%

34%

40%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Difficult to answer/No answer

Other

Russian language status

Rights to land ownership

Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Delay in salary/Pension payments

Crime

Russian presence in the Crimea

Relations with Russia

Hryvnia devaluation

Social protection for poor

Political instability

Government incompetence

Low industry production

Control over price growth

Unemployment

Corruption within the state bodies

Military conflict in the Donbas

Donbas Nationwide19

Which three of the following issues are the most important for you personally?

1%

3%

1%

2%

3%

5%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

15%

24%

31%

34%

34%

35%

55%

2%

6%

2%

3%

4%

8%

3%

10%

7%

11%

21%

17%

26%

26%

29%

21%

50%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Other

Russian language status

Russian presence in the Crimea

Rights to land ownership

Relations with Russia

Crime

Possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water

Delay in salary/Pension payments

Political instability

Government incompetence

Low industry production

Corruption within the state bodies

Social protection for poor

Unemployment

Hryvnia devaluation

Military conflict in the Donbas

Control over price growth

Donbas Nationwide20

People of the Donbas Support Ukrainian Unity

22

In your opinion, what status should the Donbas have (the entirety

of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts)?

9%

1%

1%

2%

7%

6%

20%

53%

14%

1%

1%

7%

3%

8%

35%

32%

0% 20% 40% 60%


Other

Become an independent country

Become part of Russia

Territories controlled today by so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics should be separated from Ukraine and the rest of the

territory should stay within Ukraine

Become an autonomous territory within Ukraine

Be part of Ukraine but with extended responsibilities resulting fromdecentralization reform

Be part of Ukraine as before

Donbas Nationwide

Support

Ukrainian Unity:

Donbas: 75%

Nationwide: 86%

23

In your opinion, what status should the Donbas territories under the

control of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic

have?

12%

1%

3%

4%

9%

18%

53%

15%

1%

4%

8%

13%

28%

31%

0% 20% 40% 60%


Other

Become an independent country

Become part of Russia

Be part of Ukraine but with special status

Be part of Ukraine but with extended responsibilitiesresulting from decentralization reform

Be part of Ukraine as before

Donbas Nationwide

Support

Ukrainian Unity:

Donbas: 72%

Nationwide: 80%

Do you support the Crimean food blockade currently being organized by some activists*?

24

24%

9%

24%

12%

15%

19%

20%

35%

5%

4%

12%

21%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nationwide

Donbas

Fully support Somewhat support

Totally do not support Haven't heard anything about this Difficult to answer/No answer

*Since September 2015, Crimean civic activists have maintained a blockade that prevents the shipment of

goods from mainland Ukraine from entering the peninsula.

25

Do you support the Crimean food blockade currently being organized by some activists?

(Breakdown by region)

7%

18%

28%

40%

12%

23%

27%

33%

21%

18%

13%

10%

35%

29%

12%

8%

4%

5%

7%

4%

21%

13%

5%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

East

South

Center

West

Fully support Somewhat support

Fully don't support Haven't heard anything about this Difficult to answer/No answer

7%

Do you feel that the Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language?

(Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

26

2%9%

28%

54%

7%

Definitely yes

Somewhat yes

Definitely no


27

Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine?


2%7%

22%

49%

20%

Definitely yes

Somewhat yes

Definitely no


28

How do you evaluate Russia’s actions toward Crimea?(Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

30%

18%

11%

41%

0% 20% 40% 60%


Other

It is a lawful protection of Russian-speaking citizens ofUkraine

It is an illegal invasion and occupation of independentUkraine

29

In your opinion, which of the following should Ukraine do?(Question only fielded in Donbas oversample)

15%

2%

7%

13%

14%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Other

Be divided into several countries

Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea

Become a federal country

Remain a unitary country

30

In your opinion, which areas should be a priority for the Ukrainian authorities in order to keep Donbas part of Ukraine?


12%

2%

9%

19%

46%

46%

62%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%


Other

Focus on closer relations with the West (EU and NATO)

Focus on the status of the Donbas region and improverelations with Russia

Fight crime, corruption and reform the judiciary

Improve basic services (health, education andinfrastructure)

Improve the economy and create jobs

Who do you think should hold the most responsibility for addressing local issues and providing services to your community?


12%

7%

7%

9%

9%

10%

11%

16%

20%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%


The council of your village

The governor of your rayon

The council of your rayon

The government and central government agencies

The council of your oblast

The governor of your oblast

The council of your city/town

Your local mayor

31

Views on Issues

In your opinion, reforms in which three areas should be the priority for national authorities in Ukraine?

9%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

6%

6%

7%

8%

9%

11%

13%

14%

15%

15%

16%

20%

28%

29%

56%

20%

4%

1%

4%

2%

5%

7%

6%

6%

8%

7%

11%

13%

12%

13%

12%

14%

18%

15%

21%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Other

Public procurement

Deregulation

Elections legislation

State property management

Constitutional reform

Program on promoting interests of Ukraine in the world

Financial sector

Education

Tax

Public administration

Entrepreneurship development

Agriculture

National security and defense

Law-enforcement

Energy independence program and energy reform

Decentralization

Healthcare

Judiciary

The replacement of authorities and anti-corruption reform

Donbas Nationwide33

Which institution do you believe is most responsible for improving the standard of living and quality of life for Ukrainians?


34

6%

2%

8%

13%

35%

36%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%


Other

The Verkhovna Rada

Local government

Cabinet of Ministers under the Prime Minister

The President

35

If you could have only one or the other, which is more important

to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous

economy?

13%

17%

20%

19%

14%

34%

30%

28%

18%

20%

27%

15%

14%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July 2015

NationwideNovember

2015

DonbasNovember

2015

Democracy is definitely more important to me Democracy is somewhat more important to me

Prosperity is definitely more important to me


6%

36

If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications aside from the fact that one is a man and one

is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support?

17%

21%

15%

11%

17%

17%

16%

24%

60%

57%

64%

59%

5%

6%

5%

6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July 2015

September2015


DonbasNovember 2015

Would vote for the female candidate Would vote for the male candidate

Makes no difference to me Difficult to answer/No answer

37

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women”?

22%

26%

19%

19%

30%

31%

32%

32%

21%

23%

18%

7%

5%

5%

7%

24%

21%

15%

24%

18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July 2015

September2015

NationwideNovember

2015

DonbasNovember

2015

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Strongly disagree Difficult to answer/No answer

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people”?

38

29%

34%

28%

19%

33%

37%

37%

34%

16%

16%

17%

17%

4%

4%

6%

8%

18%

10%

12%

22%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

July 2015

September 2015


Donbas November2015

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Strongly disagree Difficult to answer/No answer

Should Ukrainian women serve in influential positions in the national government?

80%

79%

79%

81%

71%

12%

10%

7%

10%

17%

7%

11%

13%

9%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

September2014

July 2015

September2015


DonbasNovember 2015

Yes No Difficult to answer/No answer

39

Foreign Policy

41

If Ukraine were able to enter only one international economic union, which one of the following should it be?

42%

36%

37%

32%

40%

42%

41%

52%

53%

59%

55%

57%

57%

21%

40%

43%

41%

42%

37%

37%

36%

27%

24%

17%

14%

17%

15%

33%

3%

4%

5%

6%

5%

5%

9%

6%

10%

9%

12%

12%

12%

24%

15%

17%

17%

20%

18%

17%

14%

14%

13%

15%

20%

14%

16%

22%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

September 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2012

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015



European Union Customs Union Other Difficult to answer/No answer

42

If Ukraine were able to enter only one international economic union, which one of the following should it be?


20%

51%

65%

87%

24%

14%

17%

7%

23%

16%

9%

3%

33%

20%

9%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

East

South

Center

West

European Union Customs Union Other Difficult to answer/No answer

43

If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote?

34%

38%

43%

41%

48%

48%

16%

43%

40%

31%

30%

28%

30%

47%

9%

7%

17%

14%

8%

10%

22%

13%

15%

8%

15%

17%

13%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015


Donbas November2015

Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO

Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

44

If a referendum was held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote?


15%

37%

55%

78%

15%

11%

17%

9%

21%

9%

5%

4%

49%

43%

22%

9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

East

South

Center

West

Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO

Would not vote Difficult to answer/No answer

Assessment of October 25 Local Elections

Did you vote in the October 2015 local elections?

46

54%

43%

46%

57%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nationwide

Donbas

Yes No

If not, why didn’t you vote in the October local elections?

47

1%

4%

3%

3%

5%

6%

10%

13%

17%

17%

31%

4%

4%

<1%

3%

6%

29%

2%

6%

11%

6%

33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%


Other

I couldn't find my name on the voters' list

I was not entitled to vote in this area

Health issues prevented me from voting

Due to the cancellation of elections in my area

Due to lack of free time

I hadn’t decided for whom to vote

Not voting was my way of demonstrating my protest of theelections

I was in a different place

I didn’t have a desire to vote

Donbas Nationwide

(Nationwide n=827; Donbas n=729)

In your opinion, were the October local elections free and fair?

48

8%

5%

33%

21%

25%

15%

10%

8%

24%

51%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nationwide

Donbas

Absolutely free and fair Somewhat free and fair

Absolutely not free and fair Difficult to answer/No answer

Which of the following phrases best describes your opinion of the pre-election campaigns held in your community before the

October local elections?

49

21%

1%

5%

9%

10%

13%

20%

21%

28%

44%

<1%

5%

3%

7%

12%

7%

17%

11%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%


They were grassroots campaigns

They were not issue-based

It was a fair competition

They were violating the law

They were issue-based

Those were dirty campaigns

They were within framework of the law

They were run by oligarchs

Donbas Nationwide

How satisfied are you with the political parties that were elected to your local councils during the October elections?

50

8%

5%

32%

21%

21%

13%

17%

14%

22%

47%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nationwide

Donbas

Strongly satisfied Somewhat satisfied Strongly dissatisfied Difficult to answer/No answer

51

2%

1%

15%

17%

21%

32%

35%

35%

36%

2%

1%

13%

24%

17%

36%

13%

29%

18%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%


Other

They are not professional enough

I do not share their ideology

There is no difference between the parties. They are all thesame

They are not responding to citizens’ interests

They are controlled by oligarchs

They are composed of ‘old guard’ politicians

They are corrupt

Donbas Nationwide

If you are dissatisfied with the political parties that were elected to

your local councils during the October elections, what is the reason?(Nationwide n=681; Donbas n=350)

To what extent are you satisfied with the city or village head who was elected from your community during the October local

elections?

52

15%

7%

37%

26%

17%

13%

12%

10%

19%

44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nationwide

Donbas

Strongly satisfied Somewhat satisfied

Strongly dissatisfied Difficult to answer/No answer

In your opinion, should more rights be transferred from central authorities to local authorities and communities?


53

31%

37%

7%

3%

22%

Definitely yes

Somewhat yes

Definitely no


Do you think your local authorities elected in the October local elections can be entrusted with more responsibilities as a result of

decentralization reform?

54

11%

9%

36%

24%

18%

15%

11%

9%

24%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Nationwide

Donbas


55

In your opinion, what areas should be the top priority for your

newly-elected local authorities? (Nationwide)

3%

6%

8%

10%

13%

13%

13%

13%

15%

17%

18%

19%

19%

20%

21%

21%

25%

26%

26%

27%

32%

37%

48%

50%

62%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%


Other

Parking

Street markets

Public parks and squares

Sport establishments

Culture institutions

Industrial areas

Sewage

Water supply

Land issues

Garbage collection

Environment

Yards and territories around houses

Pavements

Security

Heating

Kindergartens

Schools

Transportation

Street lighting

Social assistance

Housing and communal areas

Medical institutions

Roads

56

In your opinion, what areas should be a top priority for your

newly-elected local authorities? (Donbas)

10%

10%

6%

7%

15%

11%

13%

14%

16%

23%

17%

16%

21%

25%

18%

26%

25%

19%

22%

25%

34%

38%

43%

37%

50%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%


Other

Parking

Street markets

Public parks and squares

Sport establishments

Culture institutions

Industrial areas

Sewage

Water supply

Land issues

Garbage collection

Environment

Yards and territories around houses

Pavements

Security

Heating

Kindergartens

Schools

Transportation

Street lighting

Social assistance

Housing and communal areas

Medical institutions

Roads

Views on Early Elections

Note: Some political factions are advocating for early elections

Do you support holding pre-term parliamentary elections in Ukraine?

58

15%

18%

13%

27%

23%

14%

22%

20%

18%

23%

23%

26%

14%

17%

29%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

September 2015




34%

40%

39%

46%

34%

34%

41%

42%

49%

42%

29%

34%

28%

16%

33%

33%

32%

33%

36%

34%

35%

33%

32%

32%

35%

40%

33%

20%

7%

9%

8%

5%

8%

7%

8%

5%

4%

7%

9%

4%

10%

14%

13%

11%

14%

11%

19%

20%

10%

12%

11%

15%

20%

16%

20%

33%

12%

8%

8%

5%

4%

5%

6%

8%

3%

5%

8%

6%

9%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

November 2011

March 2012

May 2012

September 2012

May 2013

September 2013

February 2014

March 2014

April 2014

September 2014

July 2015

September 2015




If pre-term parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, would you vote in such elections?

59

If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday and the following political parties participated in the elections, for which

one would you vote?(Nationwide)

17%

25%

4%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

3%

4%

7%

8%

8%

11%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


I would not vote

Other

People’s Control

Left Opposition

Party of Common People

Agrarian Party of Ukraine

Nash Krai

Civic Position

Right Sector

Vidrodzhennia

Ukrainian Association of Patriots (UKROP)

Radical Party

Svoboda

Samopomich

Opposition Bloc

Batkivshchyna

Solidarnist Party

60


one would you vote?(Donbas)

61

23%

45%

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%


I would not vote

Other

Right Sector

Civic Position


Radical Party

Strong Ukraine

Left Opposition

Batkivshchyna

Samopomich

Nash Krai

Solidarnist Party

Opposition Bloc


one would you vote?(Among likely voters, Nationwide n=1,091)

15%

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

3%

3%

5%

5%

6%

10%

11%

12%

15%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%


Other

People’s Front

Yedynyi Centre

Strong Ukraine

People’s Control

Agrarian Party of Ukraine

Left Opposition

Party of Common People

Nash Krai

Civic Position

Vidrodzhennia

Right Sector


Radical Party

Svoboda

Samopomich

Batkivshchyna

Opposition Bloc

Solidarnist Party

62


one would you vote?(Among likely voters, Donbas n=471)

24%

4%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

6%

6%

8%

31%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%


Other

People’s Front

Vidrodzhennia

Svoboda

People’s Control

Right Sector


Strong Ukraine

Civic Position

Radical Party

Left Opposition

Batkivshchyna

Samopomich

Nash Krai

Solidarnist Party

Opposition Bloc

63

Demographics

Demographics

45%

55%

34%

24%

42%

44%

31%

24%

1%

0%

0%

3%

25%

38%

33%

23%

2%

19%

2%

30%

4%

9%

7%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Men

Women

18-35

36-50

51 and older

Ukrainian

Russian

Both, Ukrainian and Russian equally

Both, Ukrainian and other language equally

Both Russian and other language equally

Other

Primary/Non-complete secondary

General secondary

Vocational secondary

Higher/Non-complete higher

Worker

Farmer

White collar

Higher or medium level executive

Pensioner (not working)

Student

Housewife

Unemployed

Other

GEN

DER

AG

ELAN

GU

AG

E S

PEAKIN

G A

TH

OM

EED

UCATIO

NO

CCU

PATIO

N

65

Nationwide

Demographics

66

32%

27%

9%

1%

<1%

4%

24%

1%

3%

69%

31%

24%

31%

22%

22%

0% 50% 100%

Orthodox UPC KP

Orthodox UPC MP

Greek Catholic

Catholic

Protestant

Atheist

I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion

Other

Don’t know/No answer

City

Village

West

Center

South

East

RELIG

ION

TYPE O

FSETTLEM

EN

TS

REG

ION

S

Nationwide

Demographics

67

15%

34%

36%

11%

1%

2%

0% 50%

We need to save money for food.

We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrowmoney for buying clothes and shoes.

We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes,but we need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good

suit, a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner.

We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and otherpurchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more

expensive things (e.g., appliances).

We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensivepurchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a

car or an apartment.

Difficult to answer.

FIN

AN

CIA

L S

TATU

S O

F F

AM

ILY

Nationwide

Demographics

44%

56%

31%

23%

46%

5%

61%

31%

2%

<1%

<1%

6%

28%

38%

28%

25%

1%

17%

1%

34%

4%

8%

6%

3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Men

Women

18-35

36-50

51 and older

Ukrainian

Russian

Both, Ukrainian and Russian equally

Both, Ukrainian and other language equally

Both Russian and other language equally

Other

Primary/Non-complete secondary

General secondary

Vocational secondary

Higher/Non-complete higher

Worker

Farmer

White collar

Higher or medium level executive

Pensioner (not working)

Student

Housewife

Unemployed

Other

GEN

DER

AG

ELAN

GU

AG

E S

PEAKIN

G A

TH

OM

EED

UCATIO

NO

CCU

PATIO

N

68

Donbas

Demographics

69

9%

53%

1%

1%

9%

21%

1%

5%

89%

11%

66%

34%

0% 50% 100%

Orthodox UPC KP

Orthodox UPC MP

Greek Catholic

Protestant

Atheist

I believe in God, but do not belong to any religion

Other

Don’t know/No answer

City

Village

Donetsk region

Luhansk region

RELIG

ION

TYPE O

FSETTLEM

EN

TS

REG

ION

S

Donbas

Demographics

70

17%

38%

34%

6%

5%

0% 50%

We have enough money for food, but we need to save or borrowmoney for buying clothes and shoes.

We have enough money for food and necessary clothing and shoes, butwe need to save or borrow money for other purchases like a good suit,

a mobile phone, or a vacuum cleaner.

We have enough money for food, clothing, shoes, and otherpurchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchasing more

expensive things (e.g., appliances).

We have enough money for food, clothes, shoes, and expensivepurchases, but we need to save or borrow money for purchases like a

car or an apartment.

Difficult to answer.

FIN

AN

CIA

L S

TATU

S O

F F

AM

ILY

Donbas

www.IRI.org | @IRI_Polls

Center for Insights in Survey Research

202.408.9450 | [email protected]

This presentation was undertaken with the financial support of the Government of Canada provided

through the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development (DFATD)

Programme réalisée avec l’appui financier du gouvernement du Canada accordé par l’entremise du

ministère des Affaires étrangères, du Commerce et du Développement (MAECD)

http://www.international.gc.ca/international/index.aspx?lang=eng

http://www.international.gc.ca/international/index.aspx?lang=eng

http://ratinggroup.ua/

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