Public Opinion

Prediction….

• What is the role of public opinion in American Democracy?

Raise your hand if you are in favor of…

Better public schools…

Government is spending too little on environment issues…

Decreasing government spending…

Are we really all that informed?

• In 2003, over half of Americans believed that Iraq had close ties to the Al Qaeda terrorist network and that Iraqis were among the 19 terrorists directly involved in 9/11.

Was the War in Iraq based on public opinion?

• 1 in 4 Americans believed that there was widespread global support for the invasion of Iraq despite widespread global opposition

How do we find this stuff out anyway…

• Public Opinion Polls:– A sample is interviewed

to estimate the opinions of the population

– Random selection is key; however…

Polling problems

• What have you experienced?

• Self-selection issues• Telephone polling

problems• Peer pressure/guilt

responses

What are these people doing?

Political Participation

• US=55% approximate voter turnout

• Belgium=90%, Germany % Denmark=85%, Italy, Austria, France=80%

• Ranks near the bottom of the world’s democracies

• Why?

Factors in Voter Turnout

• Registration requirements

• Frequency of elections• Voting holiday?• Party system

Other forms of political participation

• Campaign and Lobbying Activities

• Virtual Participation• Community Activities…

social capital?

Agree or Disagree?

• “The last thing America needs is more voters—particularly badly educated and alienated ones—with a passion for politics”