PUBLIC OPINION OF THE EU MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA

PUBLIC OPINION OF THE EU MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA

Quantitative Study

March 2006

Report

2

Methodology of the Study

METHOD OF THE STUDY: Quantitative, representative of the population in the 18-55 age group

METHOD OF REGISTRATION: Direct personal interview, carried out in the home of the respondent

EXCERPT’S MODEL: Address cluster excerpt. Identification of respondents by quota

VOLUME OF EXCERPT: Planned volume 820 interviews in 120 clusters Realised volume: 808 interviews in 120 clusters

GENERAL AGGREGATE: Bulgarian population in the 18-55 age group (4 246 512) PERIOD OF REALISATION: 01-09 March 2006

REPRESENTATIVENESS: 1% corresponds to 42 465 people of the general aggregate

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS: relevant share of 10% + 2.0%;relevant share of 20% + 2.5%;relevant share of 30% + 2.8%;relevant share of 40% + 3.0%;relevant share of 50% + 3.5%.

3

Main aims of the study

The main aim of the study is to find out the prevalent attitudes towards EU membership of Bulgaria.

To find out the expected positive and negative effects, from personal and from public point of view.

The study attempts to differentiate the attitude towards the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria.

• Valiant 1: Full EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007

• Variant 2: Introduction of the delay safeguard clause and accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2008

• Variant 3: Accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007, with introduction of EU home market access safeguard clause

• Variant 4: Accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007, with introduction of justice and home affairs safeguard clause

• Variant 5: Accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007, with introduction of 2 safeguard clauses – for justice and home affairs and EU domestic market access.

4

Socio-demographic profile of the studied aggregate

Basic features of the studied aggregate

Total

Basis 808

GenderFemale 49,9%

Male 50,1%

Age

18 - 24 18,7%

25 - 34 26,2%

35 - 44 25,4%

45 - 55 29,7%

Education

Primary 16,6%

Secondary 33,4%

Secondary specialised/ college 27,8%

University 21,7%

Type of settlement

Sofia 15,0%

Big city – over 150 thousand 14,1%

Small town 45,2%

Village 25,7%


Total

Basis 808

Employment

Pupil/student/military 7,9%

Full-time 55,3%

Part-time 5,8%

Own business 4,5%

Pensioner 1,5%

Housewife 3,9%

Unemployed 21,0%

Workplace

State enterprise 18,9%

Private company 45,5%

Public administration 1,2%

Free-lance 2,0%

5

Socio-demographic profile of the studied aggregate


Total

Basis 808

Average month income of the household

Up to 150 BGL 10,3%

151 - 250 18,4%

251 - 400 21,6%

401 - 700 25,3%

701 - 1000 6,7%

Over 1000 BGL 0,8%

No answer 16,9%

Number of householdmembers

1 6,6%

2 16,9%

3 32,1%

4 31,3%

5 6,4%

6 2,9%

7 2,3%

8 and more 0,9%

Ethnic belonging

Bulgarian 80,8%

Roma 9,4%

Turkish 8,9%

Other 0,9%

Basis 808

Region

Blagoevgrad 2,9%

Burgas 5,2%

Veliko Turnovo 3,9%

Varna 3,4%

Vidin 1,3%

Vratsa 4,1%

Gabrovo 2,6%

Dobrich 2,7%

Kardjali 3,0%

Kyustendil 1,3%

Lovech 1,5%

Montana 2,8%

Pazardjik 4,2%

Pernik 1,3%

Pleven 4,4%

Plovdiv 7,5%

Razgrad 4,2%

Ruse 4,6%

Silistra 1,3%

Sliven 2,6%

Sofia - city 15,0%

Sofia - region 4,1%

Stara Zakora 4,6%

Targoviste 4,2%

Haskovo 3,7%

Shumen 2,7%

Yambol 0,9%

6

Attitude towards EU membership of Bulgaria

EU membership of Bulgaria is widely supported -72% by the studied population age group – 18-55. At the same time, the positive opinion of the country’s development is considerably lower–36%.

EU membership is supported mainly by people, considering that the country is developing in the right direction.

Within the group of the youngest (18-24), the predominant idea is that the country is developing in wrong direction (36%). Although as a whole this group approves EU membership, here is the biggest share of its opponents (27%), as compared to the other age groups.

EU membership opponents are aware of the negative effects of the accession on the country and on themselves. However, even this group admits the positive effect that it will have on the inflow of foreign investment.

EU denial is a result of negative, as well as of lack of any, expectations. Within the group of the negatively disposed, there is a high percentage of undefined specific expectations.

Main conclusions /1

7

Main conclusions /2

Expected effects of EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007

Expectations of the effects of EU membership are positive as a whole. Positive effects are related to „more general” aspects for the country:

• Positive development of the country 69%• Political stability 68% • Economic development 67%

The idea of Bulgarians of EU membership is most closely related to economic development of Bulgaria. Only 6% state that the possible membership will not influence that sphere. The sensitivity in respect of the economic issues reflects the rather conflicting expectations. The main fears of negative effect are related namely to living standard and economic development of the country, respectively 27% and 21%.

EU membership results are mainly related to inflow of foreign investment into the country – 88%. This is the immediately drawn benefit and most tangible expected result. The expectations, related to the effect on quality of goods and consumers’ protection, are also positive – 78%, limiting of organized crime – 74% and of corruption – 71%.

8

Main conclusions /3

Expected effects of EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007

64% expect positive effect of European membership on Bulgarian institutions.

In general, EU membership is related to higher positive expectations for Bulgaria as a whole, than to personal benefits. 43% of the interviewed relate membership in 2007 to positive personal effects. 22% do not consider that the membership of the country will affect them in any way.

Expected positive effects of EU membership• Raising of the living standard 30% • Foreign investment 13%• Free movement of people 12%

Expected negative effects of EU membership• Deterioration of the living standard 23%• Raising of the prices 22%• Bankruptcy of small and medium-sized business 12%

9

Main conclusions /4

Readiness of Bulgaria for EU membership

Bulgarians remain skeptical about the readiness of Bulgaria for EU membership. Every second person thinks that the country does not meet EU requirements. The general opinion – 42% is that the possible delay will raise the country’s readiness for membership. 27% consider that even in a year the country will not be more ready for membership.

• EU membership opponents remain skeptical about the capability of Bulgaria to comply with EU requirements. 75% of them state that currently Bulgaria does not meet membership requirements, and 41% claim that the country will not be ready for membership even in a year.

The expectations within the studied age group (18-55) of Bulgaria becoming full member of EU in 2007 are high – 47%. 23% of the respondents expect accession delay for 2008.

Within the context of the cited support of the EU membership of the country (72%), only 56% consider the full EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 to be the best variant for the country. This is the group of the strongest supporters of the European membership of Bulgaria.

10

Main conclusions /5

Expectation of the realisation of EU membership of Bulgaria

The possible acceptance of Bulgaria as EU member in January 2007 is considered to be a result of outside for the country factors: EU global strategy – 30% and home interests of the member states – 27%.

The delay is related to internal for the country factors – mainly the insufficient readiness of Bulgaria – 69%.

The negative aspects of membership delay for 2008 are associated with home political and economic effects. The main expectations are related to negative effect on:

• Development of the country as a whole 58% • Economic development of Bulgaria 56% • Political stability in the country 51% • Living standard 48%

33% associate the membership delay for 2008 with negative effect on the EU accession of other countries from the region.

Bulgarians approve to a greater extent the EU enlargement and accession of other countries from the region:

• Romania 73%• Serbia 72%• Macedonia 71%

11

Main conclusions /6

Attitude towards EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 without safeguard clause. Variant 1

This is the most expected variant by Bulgarians. One third of the studied age group 18-55 believes that namely this is going to happen. This variant of membership would obtain the highest level of satisfaction of Bulgarian society – 73%.

The full membership of Bulgaria in 2007 will positively affect the attitude of Bulgarians towards EU as a whole – 63% and EU institutions – 61%, as well as towards Bulgarian government – 60%.

The possible membership delay (as well as accession with one or two safeguard clauses) will affect most negatively the attitude towards the government of Bulgaria – 44% in case of membership delay and 61% in case of membership with 2 safeguard clauses.

The delay will also give rise to strengthening of euro-skepticism of Bulgarians about European institutions – 31%, as well as about the Union as a whole – 30%.

12

Main conclusions /7

Attitude towards introduction of delay safeguard clause and EU membership of Bulgaria in 2008. Variant 2

Bulgarian public opinion is prepared for the possibility of delay of EU membership for 2008. It is interpreted as an admissible measure, which will cause raising of the country’s readiness.

• The strongest negative effect of this variant will be emotional – every second person will be disappointed of membership delay for 2008.

• The government will also be negatively affected by that – 44%.

• Our accession in 2008 will also have a direct negative effect on foreign investment – 52%, and hence an indirect effect on economy – 37%.

• The main beneficiary of the membership delay, in the interviewed opinion, will be the grey economy – 43% and the crime – 40%.

38% state that the delay will not affect their attitude towards EU and European institutions.

The skepticism in respect of the degree of readiness for EU membership affects the opinion of 42% of the respondents, who think that in 2008 the country will be more ready for membership than it is now.

13

Main conclusions /8

Attitude towards the possibility of EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 with introduction of the EU home market access safeguard clause. Variant 3

The possibility of membership in 2007 with activated safeguard clause is relatively new for Bulgarian society, and, therefore, the level of information about all its aspects is still low.This affects the low level of differentiation between the separate safeguard clauses and the shades of their differences. * This is why the interviewed were provided with general explanations thereof. The opinions are expressed thereafter.

The opinions of the different variants of accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 with activated safeguard clause (regardless of which one) reveal negative attitudes. The effects on the country of activation of a safeguard clause are considered to be more negative than membership delay for 2008.

14

Main conclusions /9

Attitude towards the possibility of accession of Bulgarian to EU in 2007 with introduction of EU home market access safeguard clause. Variant 3

As far as the positives of the membership are related mainly to economic aspects of the development of the country, this variant is considered to be particularly negative. 68% of the interviewed will be disappointed of such a progress. Even the opponents of EU membership of Bulgaria will be very disappointed of this variant.

This variant will most negatively affect the attitude of Bulgarians towards EU institutions - 42% and towards the Union as a whole - 41%. This means that this variant will most strongly reinforce euro-skepticism of Bulgarians.

• The most negative effects of membership with activated EU home market access clause are related to the effect on small and medium-sized business– 65% and especially to the enterprises, which have made every endeavor to comply with EU requirements – 68%.

• The explicitness of Bulgarian public opinion as regards this variant is further confirmed by the fact, found out by the study, that the negative reactions are sharp within all studied socio-demographic groups.

15

Main conclusions /10

Attitude towards the possibility of accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 with introduction of justice and home affairs safeguard clause. Variant 4

The attitudes towards this variant are less negative than towards the foregoing. This may be explained by the inability of Bulgarian judicial system to cope with the high crime and unrevealed serious crimes in the recent years.

49% of the 18 – 55 age group population will be disappointed by the activation of the justice and home affairs safeguard clause, which is lower than the other safeguard clause variants.

The negative attitude will be oriented towards the country’s government – 49% and 24% towards EU. The main beneficiary, in the interviewed opinion, will be the grey economy – 32%.

There are problems in understanding the results from such a variant of accession. Public opinion is divided in terms of its attitude towards the effects for the judicial system. 40% foresee positive effect on the work of the judicial system, and 32% – negative.

The attitude towards stability and security of the home affairs in the country is also unspecified – 36% expect positive, 33% - negative effect.

16


Attitude towards the possibility of accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 with introduction of 2 safeguard clauses – for justice and home affairs and for EU home market access. Variant 5

This variant is considered to be the most negative. It accumulates the negatives of the two foregoing and is regarded as the worst one. Seven out of ten people would be disappointed of such decision for realisation of EU membership.

The negatives will be attributed to the government of Bulgaria – 61% of the respondents will negatively change their attitude.

This will negatively affect the attitude of 38% of the respondents towards the institutions of the Union and of 37% - towards the Union as a whole.

The negative effect is associated with the influence on the small and medium-sized business – 63%, on Bulgarian consumers – 59% and on foreign investors – 45%.

41% associate it with negatives for themselves. The degree of negative expectations of this variant is comparable to the variant with EU home market access safeguard clause – 43%. The fact that 34% of the interviewed do not think that this variant will affect them personally may be explained by the still poor and partial information on the matter.

17


Expectations of realisation of EU membership of Bulgaria

The attitude towards EU membership of Bulgaria in 2007 with safeguard clause is negative. The variant of membership delay for 2008 is considered as more acceptable (to a certain extent due to the greater readiness for this scenario, as well as the ambiguity in respect of the safeguard clauses)

All variants of introduction of safeguard clauses, except for EU membership of Bulgaria without safeguard clause, will give rise to strong disappointment of the Euro-integration process and demotivate Bulgarians.

Regardless of the understanding that Bulgaria does not meet all requirements for membership, the expectations namely for membership in 2007 without safeguard clause are high – 33% define this variant as the most probable.

The preferred among the rated as bad variants is accession in 2007 with introduction of justice and home affairs safeguard clause – 6%.

18

RESULTS OF THE STUDY

19

Evaluation of Bulgarian development

36.4%

24.5%

30.7%

8.4%

Right

Neither right, nor wrong

Wrong

Cannot say

What is the direction – right or wrong, of Bulgarian development?

Basis: Total /808 respondents/

20

Attitude towards EU membership of Bulgaria

43.8%

27.7%

10.3% 9.9%8.3%

Strongly support

Moderately support

Moderately oppose

Strongly oppose

Cannot say

Do you, personally, support EU membership of Bulgaria?

Support 72%

Oppose 20%


21

Expected effect of accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007

What, in your opinion, will be the effect of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007 on:

Country as a whole

Political stability

Economic development

Bulgarian institutions

Living standard

Political stability of Balkan countries

EU accession of the other Balkan countries

Economic development of the

Balkan countries

Accession of Turkey

Basis: Total /808 respondents

32.4

32.5

29.7

30.4

24.1

26.5

24.1

21.6

15.5

36.3

34.2

36.8

33.7

33.2

29.6

29.0

29.5

22.2

7.2

11.8

6.2

12.2

9.4

16.8

15.1

19.7

16.3

10.4

7.7

14.0

4.6

15.7

4.3

4.3

4.8

6.1

7.3

4.7

6.7

4.1

11.6

2.4

2.0

2.6

6.6

6.5

9.1

6.6

15.2

6.1

20.5

25.5

21.9

33.3

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Positive Moderately positive No effect

Moderately negative Negative Cannot say

22

Expected positive effects of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007

Which would be the positive effects for Bulgaria of the accession to EU?

30%

13%

12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

8%

7%

6%

4%

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

12%

5%

14%

Raising of living standard Foreign investment

Free movement of people

Opportunity for realization abroad Decrease of crime

Observance of the laws

Development and stability of economy Opening of new jobs

Reduction of unemploymentStruggle against corruption

Public peace Economic stability

Improvement of legislation Political stability

Limiting of grey economy

Raising of the quality of goods Clear rules

Larger markets

Improvement of health care system Prosperity of Bulgaria

Improvement of infrastructure

Improvement of educationOther

No positive effects

Cannot say


23

Expected negative effects of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007

Which would be the negative effects for Bulgaria of the accession to EU?

23%

22%

12%

6%

6%

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

13%

4%

24%

Deterioration of living standard

Raising of prices

Bankruptcy of small and medium-sized business

Increase of unemployment

Inability to respond to the competition

Overall dependence

Emigration of the young

Economic dependence

Increase of crime

Deterioration of economy

Cheap labour force

Higher taxes

Losing of national identity

Rise in energy resource prices

Other

No positive effects

Cannot say


Difficult adaptation to EU requirements

24

Expected effect of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007

Do you, personally, expect to occur the following after accession of the country to EU?

51.3

42.9

34.6

35.7

32.6

34.9

33.2

22.7

18.2

36.8

37.2

45.1

39.5

41.3

35.7

37.1

30.2

25.4

3.4

7.6

6.4

9.7

12.8

12.0

9.7

18.9

18.9

2.4

6.3

6.4

8.2

8.7

10.9

7.8

21.8

24.8

6.1

6.0

7.5

6.8

4.6

6.5

12.1

6.4

12.7

Respect of human rights and liberties

Bulgaria becoming a state under law

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Yes Moderate Yes Moderate No No Cannot say

Strengthening of the interest of foreign investors in Bulgaria

Guarantee of goods’ quality and protection of consumers

Establishment of conditions for restriction of organised crime

Establishment and consolidation of stable

legal and institutional environment

Improvement of the economic well-being of the people in the country

Better conditions for development of entrepreneurship and small and

medium-sized business

Establishment of conditions for restriction of corruption


25

The most important opportunities for Bulgaria of EU membership in 2007

Which are the most important opportunities for Bulgaria of its accession to EU?

%

Importance

%

Co

effi

cien

t o

f im

po

rtan

ce

max

min

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

1. Improvement of the economic

well-being of people

2. Establishment of conditionsfor restriction of corruption

3. Establishment of conditionsfor restriction of crime and corruption

Respect of human

rights and liberties

Strengthening of the interest of foreign investors

Guarantee of the quality of goods and protection of

consumers

Establishment of stable legal and institutional

environment

Better conditions for development of entrepreneurship

and business

Percent responsesBasis: Total /808 respondents/

The three most important and most often pointed out

The least importantand least pointed out

26

Expected effects of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007

15.8

15.4

13.7

33.2

35.0

28.8

16.0

17.2

13.3

6.8

5.9

5.6

25.0

23.7

34.4

3.2

2.8

4.2

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%


moderately negative Negative Cannot say

EU condition

EU economy

Life of the people in EU countries

What do you expect will be the effect of the accession of Bulgaria to EU on:


27

Expected effects of the accession of Bulgaria to EU in 2007

When do you, personally, expect Bulgaria to be accepted in EU?

When is the best time for Bulgaria to be accepted in EU?

47.1%

22.8%

12.5%

7.9%

9.6%

55.9%

12.3%

9.6%

10.6%

11.5%

In time – 1st January 2007without safeguard clauses

With one year delay - 2008

After 2008

Don’t expect at all to be accepted

Cannot say

+ 9%

- 10%

- 3%

+ 3%

+ 2%


28

Attitude towards the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria

35.2

6.4

2.6

6.3

2.3

36.4

19.4

10.6

21.6

9.8

8.2

42.6

37.2

28.5

30.3

7.4

13.9

30.9

20.7

40.5

6.4

9.3

10.5

12.2

9.4

6.3

8.4

8.2

10.7

7.8

Full membership in 2007

Delay for 2008

Membership in 2007

with two safeguard clauses

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Fully content Moderately content Moderately disappointed

Very disappointed Cannot say Not interested

%

How would you, personally, feel, in case of realisation of one of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria?


Membership in 2007 with EU home market access

safeguard clause

Membership in 2007 with justice and home affairs

safeguard clause

29

Attitude towards EU in the different variants of membership of Bulgaria

62.6

16.9

14.2

24.3

15.6

19.5

38.9

27.5

32.6 31.6

7.8

30.1

41.0

25.3

36.7

10.2

14.1

17.3 17.816.1

Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 5

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Positively No change Negatively Cannot say

%


How will your attitude towards EU change in each of thefollowing variants of membership of Bulgaria?

30

Attitude towards EU institutions in the different variants of membership of Bulgaria

%

How will your attitude towards EU institutions change in each of thefollowing variants of membership of Bulgaria?


60.9

16.4

13.4

23.7

15.4

19.5

38.9

27.5

32.6 31.6

8.1

31.2

42.4

24.8

38.1

11.3

14.5

17.618.7

16.6


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


31

Attitude towards Bulgarian government in the different variants of EU membership

%

How will you attitude towards the government of Bulgaria change in case of each of the variants of EU membership of the country?


59.5

11.0

7.4

13.6

8.3

21.8

33.4

21.5 21.4

16.2

9.6

44.3

57.5

49.2

61.2

9.111.3

13.615.8

14.3


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


32

Expected effect on Bulgarian economy in the different variants of EU membership

%

What will be the effect of EU membership of Bulgaria on the economy of the country in each of the following variants?


59,0

12,7

7,6

14,3

9,4

19,3

36,1

23,3

28,1

19,3

11,6

37,0

52,5

39,1

54,8

10,1

14,216,6

18,516,5

Variant 1 Variant 2 Variant 3 Variant 4 Variant 50,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

Positive No effect Negative Cannot say

33

Effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on small and medium-sized business

%

What will be the effect on small and medium-sized business of

the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria?


32.830.8

11.0

16.2

9.4

5.3

19.1

8.8

18.3

9.5

50.1

33.2

65.0

46.1

63.0

11.8

16.915.2

19.418.1


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


34

Effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on Bulgarian consumers

%

What will be the effect on Bulgarian consumers of the following variants for EU membership of Bulgaria?


40.2

22.4

10.0

17.5

10.29.7

26.9

18.4

25.9

15.6

41.3

36.8

58.5

40.2

58.6

8.8

13.9 13.1

16.4 15.6


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0


35

Effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on foreign investors

%

What will be the effect on foreign investors of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria?


82.2

15.4

22.824.7

21.7

4.8

15.3 14.417.2

13.7

4.8

51.6

43.540.3

44.6

8.2

17.719.3

17.820.0


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0


36

Effect of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on grey economy

%

What will be the effect on grey economy of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria?


19.4

42.6

33.531.5

27.4

15.2

20.3 19.4

15.917.2

46.2

14.0

22.7

27.5

30.1

19.2

23.124.4 25.1 25.3


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0


37

Expected personal effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria

%

What will be the effect on you, personally, of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria?

Basis: Total /808 respondents

42.5

13.9

6.7

12.0

7.1

22.1

35.8

32.6

37.2

34.3

24.4

33.7

43.0

31.8

41.0

11.0

16.617.7

19.017.6


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0


38

Effects of the different variants of EU membership on the crime in the country

%


28.2

39.7

26.6

29.828.2

23.2 23.3

29.2

18.717.7

35.0

18.4

22.3

31.0

33.8

13.6

18.6

21.820.4 20.3


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0


What will be the effect on the crime in the country of the following variants of EU membership of Bulgaria?

39

Effects of the different variants of EU membership of Bulgaria on the other countries from the region, awaiting their EU membership

%


50.1

9.78.3

13.9

9.1

14.9

23.8 24.0 24.3 25.1

6.5

30.2

32.9

25.7

32.2

28.5

36.334.8

36.1

33.6


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0


What will be the effect on the countries from the region, awaiting their EU membership, of the following variants of Bulgarian membership?

40

Expectations of the realisation of EU membership of Bulgaria

57%

11%

1%

5%

3%

12%

12%

33%

23%

5%

9%

13%

7%

10%

Variant 1

Variant 2

Variant 3

Variant 4

Variant 5

Bulgaria does notbecome EU member

Cannot say

Which of the followingvariants is the most

acceptable for Bulgaria?

Which of the followingvariants is the most

probable for Bulgaria?


59%

13%

1%

6%

5%

9%

8%

Which of the following variants is most acceptable

for you, personally?

41

Factors of EU membership of Bulgaria

29,9%

26,6%

18,8%

14,2%

1%

9,4%

EU global strategy

Internal interests of member states

Our natural belonging to Europe

Readiness and reformsof the country

Other

Cannot say

If Bulgaria becomes EU member on 1st January 2007, what will be the main

reason for its acceptance?

68,5%

11,8%

8,6%

8%

1,5%

1,6%

Insufficient readiness of Bulgaria

Unsolved internal problems within the member states

Problems in the EU structures

Unsolved internal problems within the member states

Other

No answer

If EU membership of Bulgaria is delayed for 2008, what will be the

main reason for the delay?


42

What will be the effect of possible delay of the accession of Bulgaria to EU for 2008 on:

Effects on Bulgaria of EU membership delay for 2008

3.4

4.3

4.5

2.2

3.5

3.0

2.6

2.1

2.4

10.8

12.0

8.8

9.1

8.9

5.6

4.3

3.8

4.5

14.2

15.9

21.6

27.6

20.4

28.5

34.7

27.4

40.8

38.0

37.9

37.8

30.4

30.7

23.4

21.9

16.6

17.0

20.4

17.9

13.6

17.8

16.0

9.7

7.5

11.4

7.1

13.2

12.0

13.7

12.8

20.5

29.6

29.0

38.7

28.2

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%


Moderately negative Negative Cannot say

Country as a whole

Political stability

Economic development

Bulgarian institutions

Living standard

Political stability of Balkan countries

Accession of the other Balkan countries to EU

Economic development of Balkan countries

Accession of Turkey


43

Readiness of Bulgaria for EU membership in 2007

6%

32.8%31.4%

19.5%

10.2%

Fully complies Moderatelycomplies

Moderately doesnot comply

Does not comply at all

Cannotsay

To what extent does Bulgaria comply with the requirements for EU membership?

Complies 39%

Does not comply 51%


44

Readiness of Bulgaria for EU membership in 2008

Hebros Bank

17.0%

24.9%

15.8%14.2%

12.4%

15.7%

Yes Moderate Yes No effect Moderate No No Cannot say


Do you think that, if EU membership is delayed for 2008, the country will be more ready than it is now?

Yes 42% No 27%

45

Attitude towards EU membership of countries from the region

41.5

37.6

37.2

33.0

23.9

21.6

31.4

33.9

33.9

31.0

23.4

23.8

4.1

6.7

4.5

7.5

12.6

13.7

4.5

4.3

5.5

7.3

17.8

17.6

18.5

17.5

18.9

21.1

22.4

23.4

Romania

Serbia

Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Turkey

Albania

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0%

Fully approve Moderately approve Moderately disapprove

Fully disapprove cannot say

To what extent do you approve the EU accession of the following Balkan countries?


PUBLIC OPINION OF THE EU MEMBERSHIP OF BULGARIA

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