PUBLIC OPINION AND NATIONAL DEFENCE - … opinion and national defence / October 2015 Estonian...

Pärnu mnt 102, A- korpus, 10116 Tallinn Tel: +372 585 29 700 [email protected]

www.turu-uuringute.eu

PUBLIC OPINION AND NATIONAL

DEFENCE

Ordered by: Estonian Ministry of Defence

Juhan Kivirähk

October 2015

Public opinion and national defence / October 2015 Estonian Ministry of Defence

Turu-uuringute AS 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS ...............................................................................................................2

SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................4

BACKGROUND OF THE SURVEY ................................................................................................9

1 Sample ....................................................................................................... 9

2 Survey ..................................................................................................... 10

3 Performers............................................................................................... 12

RESULTS OF THE SURVEY ......................................................................................................13

1 General attitudes towards life in Estonia and pride in Estonia ................. 13

2 Confidence in institutions ........................................................................ 16

2.1 General background ................................................................................................. 16

2.1 Defence structures ................................................................................................... 17

3 Security and threats ................................................................................ 19

3.1 Security in the world ................................................................................................ 19

3.2 Security in Estonia ................................................................................................... 20

3.3 Threats to world security .......................................................................................... 22

3.4 Threats to Estonia .................................................................................................... 24

3.5 Security guarantees ................................................................................................. 27

4 Defence willingness among the population of Estonia ............................. 28

4.1 Attitude towards the necessity of resistance ................................................................ 28

4.2 Willingness to participate in defence activities .............................................................. 30

4.3 Desire to leave Estonia in the event of a military threat ................................................ 32

4.4 Ability to act in the event of a potential attack ............................................................. 33

4.5 On which topics do you require more information? ....................................................... 33

5 Defence capability of Estonia ................................................................... 35

5.1 Assessment of the defence capability of Estonia ........................................................... 35

5.2 Views on the volume of defence expenditures .............................................................. 36

5.3 Preparedness for making a personal donation to national defence .................................. 37

5.4 Assessment of state activities in view of the development of national defence ................. 38

5.5 Assessments on the defence of the Estonian border ..................................................... 39

6 Organisation of Estonian national defence ............................................... 40

6.1 Attitude towards conscript service .............................................................................. 40

6.1 Attitudes towards the professional defence forces ........................................................ 45

6.2 Attitude towards the comprehensive approach to national defence ................................. 45

6.3 Tasks of the Defence League ..................................................................................... 46

6.4 Opinions on joining the Defence League ...................................................................... 48

7 NATO ....................................................................................................... 49

7.1 Attitude towards membership in NATO........................................................................ 49

7.1 NATO’s assistance in the event of a potential threat ..................................................... 50

7.2 Assessments on the actions of NATO .......................................................................... 51

8 International military operations ............................................................. 52

8.1 Attitude towards participation in international operations .............................................. 52

8.2 Arguments for participation in international operations ................................................. 53

8.3 Attitudes towards participation in NATO, EU and UN operations ..................................... 55


Turu-uuringute AS 3

9 Attitudes towards professional servicemen ............................................. 56

10 Veteran policy .......................................................................................... 58

11 Information related to national defence .................................................. 60

11.1 National defence instruction in schools ........................................................................ 60

11.2 Supplement Riigikaitse of the daily Postimees .............................................................. 60

12 Media consumption .................................................................................. 62

ANNEXES ...............................................................................................................................64

1 Questionnaire .......................................................................................... 64

2 Summary tables on responses ................................................................. 64

3 Frequency tables with the responses of Estonians ................................... 64

4 Frequency tables with the responses of non-Estonians ........................... 64


Turu-uuringute AS 4

SUMMARY

In October 2015, on the order of the Estonian Ministry of Defence, the Social and Market Research

Company Turu-uuringute AS conducted a public opinion survey on national defence during which

1,193 residents of Estonia from the age of 15+ were interviewed. This was already the thirty-eighth

survey in monitoring public opinion, which was started in 2000.

In Estonia as well as elsewhere in Europe, the political atmosphere of the survey period was

dominated by the question of refugees. The Parliament of Estonia discussed migration; protests

against the intake of refugees took place under the leadership of the Estonian Conservative People’s

Party (EKRE) and People’s Unity Party (RÜE).

The topic of MPs’ allowances for professional expenses provoked the public as well when it was

revealed how some MPs use the allowances for car leases. The government presented the

parliament with the Estonian-Russian Border Treaty for ratification. The City of Tallinn had to

manage without a mayor and the Centre Party became the grounds of a power struggle when Kadri

Simson decided to stand as a candidate for the party chairman.

The assessments given to changes that have taken place in Estonian life show an increase in the

number of the Estonian respondents who perceive no change in the situation, the proportion of

respondents who perceived positive changes has decreased. In March, 40 per cent of Estonians felt

that the situation is improving, whereas in October, the respective indicator was only 29 per cent;

the number of people who think the situation has remained the same has grown from 38 per cent

to 46 per cent. The assessments given to life in Estonia by Russian-speaking respondents have

remained unchanged throughout the last three surveys.

The survey measured people’s pride over living in the Republic of Estonia and its membership in the

European Union and NATO. 50% of all respondents, including 57% of Estonians and 36% of non-

Estonians, feel proud and happy over living in Estonia very often or often enough.

The membership in the European Union and NATO, however, are not as important to people: 32%

of the respondents are often proud to belong to the European Union and more than 35% are proud

to belong to NATO.

Based on whether a respondent is an Estonian or Russian speaker, there are significant differences

regarding their attitudes towards the membership in the European Union and NATO. 46% of the

Estonian-speaking residents are proud and happy to belong to NATO, whereas only 11% of

Russian-speaking residents feel the same. 37% of Estonian and 21% of Russian-speaking

respondents feel constantly or often enough proud over the membership in the European Union.

Of the ten institutions the reliability of which the respondents were asked to assess, the Rescue

Services rank the highest in trustworthiness (95% trusts them completely or rather trusts them).

This is followed by the Police (85%), the Defence Forces (78%), the Defence League (70%), NATO

and the European Union (both 60%), the President (59%). The confidence in the state’s political

institutions has declined: the trustworthiness of the Parliament and the Government has decreased

significantly, while still remaining positive, whereas the Prime Minister is trusted and mistrusted by

an equal number of people.

Estonian-speaking and Russian-speaking respondents’ trust in the state’s political and national

defence institutions differs considerably—at times, Russian-speaking respondents’ indicators are

almost half as low as those of Estonians. The greatest difference occurs in the confidence in NATO,

which is trusted by 78 per cent of Estonians, but only by 24% of Russian-speaking respondents;

the situation is similar with the confidence in the President (74% vs 28%).


Turu-uuringute AS 5

The number of people who believe that the world is going to become more unstable and the

likelihood of military conflicts will grow remains high—this opinion is held by 71% of the

respondents. Only 7 per cent believe that the world is going to become more secure in the coming

decade and 16% think that the situation will remain unchanged.

Respondents perceive the defence situation in Estonia to be somewhat more positive than that of

the world in general, yet even this assessment has become more negative compared to spring.

Only 23 per cent of respondents believe that in ten years, the residents of Estonia will be living in

more secure conditions than they do now. The proportion of those who presume that the situation

will remain unchanged and of those who predict an increase in insecurity is equally balanced at 31

per cent.

For a long time, Russia’s activities to restore its authority were perceived as the main threat to

world security, whereas the current survey deems the activities of the Islamic State (64%) and

international terrorist networks (59%) even more dangerous than Russia. Along with organised

crime (40%) Russia’s activities to restore its authority (39%) rank as low as the third and fourth

place. It is possible that the influence of the Russian factor decreased because the survey had a

special category for the armed conflict in Ukraine, which was considered a certain threat to world

security by 37% of the respondents.

While Estonian and Russian-speaking respondents assess many global threats similarly, there is a

fundamental difference in evaluating the activities of Russia. Estonians rank the threat of Russia as

third (53%), whereas Russian-speaking respondents rank it as last (7%).

Similarly to the preceding surveys, the most probable threats to Estonia are thought to be the

following three, the realisation of which in the following years is considered probable or quite

probable by more than half of the respondents: 69% of residents think that there may be an

organised attack against the Estonian state information systems (a so-called cyber-attack), 61%

believe that some foreign country may interfere in Estonian politics and economy in order to

influence these in their own interests and 50% think Estonia may face an extensive marine

pollution. The public has highlighted these three primary security threats for several years.

The number of those who believe that nationally or religiously motivated conflicts between

population groups are likely to occur has increased considerably compared to the preceding

surveys. In March, 34% of respondents held that opinion, whereas in the current survey, the rate is

45 per cent. This could be seen as the impact of the society’s fear of refugees.

The percentage of people regarding an extensive or limited military attack probable has decreased

compared to spring—this is deemed likely by 26 per cent of Estonians and by 14–15 per cent of

Russian-speaking respondents.

NATO membership continues to be considered the main security guarantee for Estonia (57%

mention it as one of the three most important factors). Similarly to the preceding surveys, the

development of Estonia’s independent defence capability holds 2nd place (42%), followed by

cooperation and good relations with Russia (29%), which are considered the primary security

guarantee mainly by Russian-language speakers (60%; only 15% of Estonians).

For Estonian-speaking respondents, the most important security guarantee is clearly the

membership in NATO (73%; 22% of Russian speakers), development of Estonia’s independent

defence capability is in 2nd place (45%; 34% of Russian speakers).

The proportion of people who consider armed resistance necessary in case of a military attack has

decreased by 4 per cent compared to spring, falling from 83 per cent to 79. Estonian-speaking

respondents consider armed resistance more necessary than non-Estonians (82% and 71%

respectively).

62% of Estonians and 42% of Russian-speaking respondents would be willing to participate in

defence activities to the best of their abilities and skills. 72% of male citizens would be willing to

participate in national defence. More than 80 per cent of male citizens under 35 years of age and

three fourths of male citizens under 50 years of age are willing to participate in national defence.


Turu-uuringute AS 6

In a situation where Estonia is under attack, every fifth person would consider leaving Estonia.

Women (25% certainly or probably) and younger people up to 39 years of age (more than a third)

are the most likely to leave Estonia. 32 per cent of Russian-speaking respondents and 16 per cent

of Estonians would probably leave.

The population’s awareness about behaving in an emergency situation is quite low: only 25% would

know what they could do to defend Estonia if there is a threat of attack by a foreign enemy,

whereas 69% do not regard that they are informed enough. People’s awareness has not risen since

spring 2014.

People would like to have more information on how to act in a conflict area as a civilian (40%), how

the public would be informed in case of a threat (42%) and how evacuation would be organised

(38%). Male respondents also show interest slightly greater than the average in questions related

to mobilisation and their responsibilities regarding the participation in national defence.

Assessments to Estonia’s national defence ability have not changed considerably since the last

survey: in the event of an attack by a foreign country, defending Estonia is considered certainly

possible or probably possible by 53 per cent of the respondents (61% of Estonians).

When assessing the volume of Estonian defence expenditures, 28 per cent of the respondents find

that defence spending must be increased and 19% that it should be decreased. The predominant

view is that defence expenditures should remain at the currently achieved level (44%). Estonians’

attitude towards defence expenditures is inversely proportional to that of the Russian-speaking

respondents: 33 per cent of Estonians are in favour of increasing defence expenditures whereas 45

per cent of Russian-speaking respondents support cuts.

35 per cent of Estonians and 13 per cent of Russian-speaking respondents would be certainly or

probably willing to make a financial contribution to support Estonian national defence.

71% of the population provided a positive assessment to the state’s activities regarding the

development of Estonian national defence. Estonians have a more positive attitude towards the

development of national defence than non-Estonians (80% and 51% respectively).

While in last autumn, the assessments given to the protection of the Estonian national border were

clearly negative, the number of positive and negative assessments is now equal. However, Estonian

respondents still tend to be the most critical. In last autumn, as many as two thirds of Estonians

gave a negative assessment to the protection of the Estonian external border; now, the proportion

of critical assessments has decreased to 49%. Only every fourth Russian-speaking respondent

perceives that there are problems with the defence of the eastern border.

People in Estonia have very favouring attitudes towards conscript service: as many as 93% of

respondents believe that young men need to undergo conscript service, with 59% finding it

certainly necessary. The majority of the respondents think that young men with minor health

disorders should undergo conscript service with an appropriate training load.

The majority of the population disapprove of the evasion of conscript service—25% condemn such

behaviour and 41% consider it negative. Younger age groups are more tolerant than average

towards the evasion of conscript service—more than 40% of people under 30 years of age take an

understanding stance.

In 2013, women were given the opportunity to undergo conscript service voluntarily and this has

been gaining increasingly more understanding in the society—more than half of the respondents

believe it to be certainly necessary or rather necessary. Estonians and younger respondents have a

more contemporary attitude towards the questions of gender equality than Russian-speaking and

older respondents. 60% of Estonians think it is necessary for women to have the opportunity of

undergoing conscript service, whereas only 33% of Russian-speaking respondents agree. More than

half of the respondents over 50 years of age think that it is not necessary for women to have the

opportunity of undergoing voluntary conscript service.


Turu-uuringute AS 7

Even though half of those who consider conscript service for women necessary believe that this

should be done based on a special programme, the proportion of people who believe that women

must undergo conscript service under the same conditions as men is gradually increasing (42 per

cent).

82% of the population prefer maintaining the current concept of national defence based on

professional defence forces together with reserve forces consisting of those who have undergone

conscript service. 11% support waiving compulsory military service and switching to a fully

professional army only.

76 per cent of the respondents (84 per cent of Estonians) believe that such a wider concept of

national defence, which states that national defence is not only the task of armed forces and the

Defence League but a common activity for most state institutions and the entire society, is certainly

suitable or probably suitable for Estonia.

According to the population of Estonia, the main task of the Defence League is to develop national

defence capability, which is marked as the most important task by 35% of respondents; 50% when

the three most important tasks are summarised. Participating in rescue activities in the event of

accidents and disasters is mentioned as first by 13% and among the three main tasks by 52%; the

willingness to defend the country and raising defence readiness among the population is seen as

the most important task by 13% of the respondents, whereas 42% see it as one of the three most

important tasks.

Five per cent of the respondents participate in the activities of the Defence League, 25% of the

respondents are connected to the Defence League through a family member or friend. Russian-

speaking respondents are not well-connected with the Defence League—only 8 per cent of the

respondents have a friend or a family member with a connection to the Defence League.

If respondents were to be presented with a proposal to join the Defence League or its associated

organisations, 5% would certainly join and 18% would probably join. The readiness to join is the

highest among younger respondents.

Attitudes towards Estonia’s membership in NATO have not changed compared to spring: 72% of the

population are in favour of it. 91% of Estonians and only 31 per cent of Russian-speaking

respondents support the membership in NATO.

45 per cent of the respondents (57% of Estonians and 19% of Russian-speaking respondents)

believe that NATO will provide direct military aid if Estonia should face a military threat. 15% think

that NATO would limit their help to political and diplomatic support. 19% believe that the

membership in NATO would help to avoid a military conflict and 10% think that NATO would not

help Estonia in any way.

The feeling of security towards NATO’s aid is supported by the steps that have already been taken

to ensure Estonian security and which are supported by the general population: 69 per cent of the

respondents (81% of Estonians) find that NATO has already done enough to ensure Estonia’s

security and 68% of the population (88% of Estonians, but only 24 per cent of the Russian-

speaking respondents) favour the presence of NATO’s allied forces in Estonia.

62% of the population believe that units of the Estonian Defence Forces should—in accordance with

their capabilities—participate in international operations in different conflict areas of the world.

Estonians favour the participation of the Estonian Defence Forces in military operations more than

Russian-speaking respondents (72% and 39% respectively). Participation in international military

operations is considered necessary primarily because it provides our soldiers with necessary real

combat experience (mentioned by 63% as one of three reasons) and guarantees NATO’s assistance

to Estonia in the event of potential threats (54%).

More than 60 per cent of the respondents support Estonia’s involvement in operations conducted

under the aegis of NATO, the European Union and UN. Russian-speaking respondents favour

involvement in the UN missions the most, this is followed by participation in the European Union

operations and, lastly, in missions as a part of NATO units.


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Attitudes towards professional servicemen were most recently explored in the survey conducted in

March 2014. The population’s attitudes have not changed since then: 68% of the respondents have

a very positive or generally positive attitude towards active servicemen, this includes as many as

three fourths of Estonian-speaking respondents.

Interest in the military field and patriotism are considered to be the main motives for becoming a

professional serviceman. Factors related to self-improvement are also important: it is seen as an

opportunity to receive training and maintain a good physical form. Salary holds the fourth place in

the ranking of importance. The lack of other jobs and long holidays are seen as less important.

In the mind of the society, the word “veteran” is strongly associated with the image of World War II

(53%), as many as 83 per cent of Russian-speaking respondents associate veterans with World

War II. Still, the proportion of respondents who associate the word “veteran” with the operations of

the Estonian Defence Forces is slowly growing—11 per cent in March has risen to 17 per cent today.

The majority (71%) of the respondents consider celebrating Veterans’ Day certainly necessary or

rather necessary. The Russian-speaking respondents’ awareness of the celebration is still limited,

but it is rising: in March, 43 per cent of the respondents did not know anything about this day or

could not say anything about it, whereas now the respective indicator is 32 per cent. For the first

time, the proportion of Russian-speaking respondents who deemed the celebration necessary

exceeded 50 per cent.

79 per cent of the respondents certainly or probably believe that all schools that offer secondary

education should provide the possibility to have national defence instruction. This figure has fallen

by eight per cent since March. National defence instruction is regarded more or less equally

important by both Estonian and Russian-speaking respondents.

The readership of the national defence themed supplement of the daily Postimees has not changed

since March—18 per cent of the respondents had read the supplement Riigikaitse, 5 per cent of

whom read it most of the time and 13 per cent had read it once or twice. Considering that the

readership of printed newspapers is in decline, it is difficult to expect a great increase here—more

effort should be put into distributing information on national defence online.


Turu-uuringute AS 9

BACKGROUND OF THE SURVEY

This report has been prepared on the basis of the results of the Omnibus 1000 survey carried out by

Turu-uuringute AS from 6 October till 27 October 2015 and similar earlier surveys. The report will be

submitted to the Estonian Ministry of Defence.

The purpose of the survey was to investigate:

General attitudes towards life in Estonia and pride in Estonia

Confidence in institutions (incl. defence structures) among the population

Residents’ assessments in connection with potential security risks in Estonia and the world

Attitudes in connection with Estonia’s participation in international military operations

Defence willingness among the population and estimated behaviour in the event of potential

threats endangering Estonia

Assessments on Estonia’s defence capability

Attitude towards NATO and its role in ensuring Estonian security

Attitudes both towards compulsory conscript service for men and voluntary conscript service for

women

Attitudes towards the Defence League and understanding its tasks;

Attitudes towards professional servicemen and opinions on the motives for becoming an active

serviceman

Attitudes towards initial national defence instruction in schools.

The first part of the report describes the methodology, the second part presents the results with figures

and comments; the Annex provides the used questionnaire and distribution tables by important

background characteristics.

1 Sample

The survey was carried out in the Omnibus 1000 environment. Omnibus 1000 is a regularly held survey

(following a specific schedule), whose sample comprises of the citizens of the Republic of Estonia with

the age above 15, which totals 1,107,791 people (Statistics Estonia, 01.01.2014).

The usual sample of the Omnibus 1000 is 1,000 respondents. The sample is formed according to the

proportional model of the general sample. This model is based on areas and settlement size

(number of residents), which are used for selecting 100 source addresses (sample points). Within each

area, the source address is selected randomly from the address list of the Population Register.

In addition to the main sample, this survey included an additional sample of 200 respondents to

ensure the better representation of the Russian-speaking population in the sample. Although the

linguistic composition of the population has been weighed according to the actual situation (i.e., by

increasing the effect of Estonian-speaking respondents and decreasing the effect of Russian-speaking

respondents), this additional sample allows to analyse the attitudes and opinions of single Russian-

speaking groups in detail.

The so-called principle of the young man was applied to the selection of respondents at the source

address. This means that at the address of the sample, the interview will be performed with the

household’s youngest male member in the age above 15 who is present at home; if no men are at

home, the interview will be performed with the youngest woman. Such a method grants additional

possibility for participating in the sample to the categories of respondents who are at home less often

(younger people, males) and adjusts the sample to correspond to the population’s actual gender and

age composition.


Turu-uuringute AS 10

Use of the proportional model of the general sample ensures the representativeness of the

sample, in other words, it allows making generalisations about the whole same-age population of

Estonia. The maximum sampling error does not exceed ±3.10% in polling 1,000 persons, the error may

be bigger for smaller subgroups.

The following Table 1 provides sample error limitations at 95% confidence level in assessing the

proportion.

Table 1 Sampling error limitations

2 Survey

The survey method was personal interview, conducted on tablet computers in either Estonian or

Russian, depending on the respondent’s preference. A total of 58 pollers who had been given special

training by Turu-uuringute AS participated in carrying out the survey. A total of 1,193 interviews were

performed. The social and demographic profile of the respondents has been provided in Figure 1.

Summary of the results of the polling (number of addresses visited, reasons for not carrying out the

interview) have been presented in Table 2.

Table 2 Results of the polling

Reasons for not carrying out the interview Total

There are no target group persons in the family 527

Nobody is at home 2768

Target group person is not at home 84

Contact was denied 777

Target group person refused from giving the interview 637

Other reasons for not performing the interview 75

Not a dwelling or address inaccessible 242

Summary

Total addresses 6303

Repeated visits 878

Correctly filled in questionnaires 1193

The statistical analysis software package SPSS for Windows 17.0 was used to process data.

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 3% 2% 10 30.99% 30.83% 30.36% 29.56% 28.40% 26.84% 24.79% 22.13% 18.59% 13.51% 10.57% 8.68% 20 21.91% 21.80% 21.47% 20.90% 20.08% 18.98% 17.53% 15.65% 13.15% 9.55% 7.48% 6.14% 30 17.89% 17.80% 17.53% 17.07% 16.40% 15.49% 14.31% 12.78% 10.74% 7.80% 6.10% 5.01% 40 15.49% 15.42% 15.18% 14.78% 14.20% 13.42% 12.40% 11.07% 9.30% 6.75% 5.29% 4.34% 50 13.86% 13.79% 13.58% 13.22% 12.70% 12.00% 11.09% 9.90% 8.32% 6.04% 4.73% 3.88% 60 12.65% 12.59% 12.40% 12.07% 11.60% 10.96% 10.12% 9.03% 7.59% 5.51% 4.32% 3.54% 70 11.71% 11.65% 11.48% 11.17% 10.73% 10.14% 9.37% 8.36% 7.03% 5.11% 4.00% 3.28% 80 10.96% 10.90% 10.73% 10.45% 10.04% 9.49% 8.77% 7.82% 6.57% 4.78% 3.74% 3.07% 90 10.33% 10.28% 10.12% 9.85% 9.47% 8.95% 8.26% 7.38% 6.20% 4.50% 3.52% 2.89% 100 9.80% 9.75% 9.60% 9.35% 8.98% 8.49% 7.84% 7.00% 5.88% 4.27% 3.34% 2.74% 110 9.34% 9.30% 9.15% 8.91% 8.56% 8.09% 7.47% 6.67% 5.61% 4.07% 3.19% 2.62% 120 8.95% 8.90% 8.76% 8.53% 8.20% 7.75% 7.16% 6.39% 5.37% 3.90% 3.05% 2.50% 130 8.59% 8.55% 8.42% 8.20% 7.88% 7.44% 6.88% 6.14% 5.16% 3.75% 2.93% 2.41% 150 8.00% 7.96% 7.84% 7.63% 7.33% 6.93% 6.40% 5.71% 4.80% 3.49% 2.73% 2.24% 200 6.93% 6.89% 6.79% 6.61% 6.35% 6.00% 5.54% 4.95% 4.16% 3.02% 2.36% 1.94% 300 5.66% 5.63% 5.54% 5.40% 5.18% 4.90% 4.53% 4.04% 3.39% 2.47% 1.93% 1.58% 500 4.38% 4.36% 4.29% 4.18% 4.02% 3.79% 3.51% 3.13% 2.63% 1.91% 1.49% 1.23% 750 3.58% 3.56% 3.50% 3.41% 3.28% 3.10% 2.86% 2.55% 2.15% 1.56% 1.22% 1.00%

1 000 3.10% 3.08% 3.03% 2.95% 2.84% 2.68% 2.48% 2.21% 1.86% 1.35% 1.06% 0.87% 1 500 2.53% 2.52% 2.48% 2.41% 2.32% 2.19% 2.02% 1.81% 1.52% 1.10% 0.86% 0.71%

Percentage of answers

Sam

ple

siz

e



Figure 1. Respondents’ social and demographic profile, %, n=1,193

46

54

69

31

83

8

9

6

16

16

17

18

17

10

15

59

26

69

31

5

10

24

18

17

27

15

20

18

5

7

25

10

32

16

12

11

7

22

0 20 40 60 80 100

GENDER

Male

Female

LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION

Estonian

Other

CITIZENSHIP

Estonian

Russian

Unspecified

AGE

15 - 19 a.

20 - 29 a.

30 - 39 a.

40 - 49 a.

50 - 59 a.

60 - 74 a.

75 and above

EDUCATION

Primary or basic

Secondary, vocational or secondary vocational

Higher

RESIDENCE

City

Rural area

NET INCOME PER MEMBER

less than 200 €

201-300 €

301-400 €

401-650 €

More than 650 €

Difiicult to say / Refused

MAIN ACTIVITY

Enterpreneur, manager, top specialist

Middle-level specialist, official, executive

Skilled worker, operator

Other employed persons

Pupil, student

Pensioner

Other unemployed

REGION

Tallinn

Northern Estonia

Ida-Viru County

Western Estonia

Central Estonia

Southern Estonia



3 Performers

The persons responsible for various stages of the survey are:

Report, project management: Juhan Kivirähk

Sample/coordination of interviewing work: Kristel Merusk,

Kaja Södor,

Roman Vjazemski.

Data processing and tables: Reijo Pohl

Marina Karpištšenko

Customer’s contact person: Artur Jugaste

Contact information:

General phone: 585 29 700

E-mail: [email protected]

Web-page: www.turu-uuringute.ee

Address: Pärnu mnt. 102, Section A, 11312 Tallinn

Survey leader’s contact information:

Telephone: 5515200

E-mail: [email protected]

http://www.turu-uuringute.ee/



RESULTS OF THE SURVEY

1 General attitudes towards life in Estonia and pride in Estonia

People’s attitudes towards different social questions, including national defence, are considerably

influenced by the positive or negative assessments given to life in Estonia in general.

In spring, people’s assessments given to life in Estonia showed signs of improvement when compared

to autumn 2014 (this was most likely influenced by the parliamentary elections, which tend to bring

along more hopeful and positive attitudes towards the society), however, the current survey shows a

decline. The number of people who think the situation has remained unchanged has grown and the

proportion of respondents who perceive positive changes has decreased.

Estonians’ attitudes have changed most severely: in March, 40 per cent of people perceived positive

changes, whereas in October the respective figure was only 29 per cent; the proportion of people who

think the situation has remained the same has grown (from 38 per cent to 46 per cent). Russian-

speaking respondents’ assessments have remained the same throughout the last three surveys.

Figure 2. Attitudes towards the changes in life in Estonia (%; N = all respondents)

People under 30 years of age and respondents with higher education are more positive about Estonia’s

advancement, more than a third of them perceive positive changes. Assessments are naturally

influenced by the respondent’s economic situation—positive changes are felt to a more than average

extent by people whose income starts from 650 euros per household member per month. More than

half of the respondents whose monthly income per household member exceeds 1,000 euros per month

perceive positive changes.

People’s happiness and pride over living in Estonia also depends on how people perceive the changes in

Estonian life.

In this question, the attitudes have remained the same compared to the previous survey: 50 per cent

of respondents feel proud and happy about living in Estonia very often or often enough and 39 per cent

sometimes feel it. The proportion of respondents who never feel proud or happy about living in Estonia

has remained at 6% throughout the three surveys.

25

29

29

36

28

36

46

38

37

43

33

21

28

23

25

6

4

5

4

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Changed for the better Remained the same

Changed for the worse Don't know



Figure 3. Pride and happiness over living in the Republic of Estonia (%; N = all respondents)

There is a clear difference in the attitudes of Estonians and people who speak other languages in this

question as well. 57% of Estonian-speaking respondents feel proud and happy very often or often

enough, while the indicator for people who speak other languages is 36%. 44% of Russian-speaking

respondents experience positive emotions in connection to living in Estonia only sometimes and 12% do

not feel positive about it at all. Respondents with undetermined citizenship (18% do not feel positive

about living in Estonia at all) and citizens of Russia (12%) are the most critical about living in Estonia.

Proportions pertaining to happiness and pride over living in Estonia are considerably higher compared

the sentiments on Estonia’s membership in the European Union and NATO. Similarly to the

assessments given to life in Estonia in general, Estonian residents’ pride over belonging to the

European Union and NATO have also fallen to the level it was in autumn 2014: 32% of the residents

are constantly or often enough proud over Estonia’s membership in the European Union and

35% over the membership in NATO (Figure 4). 17% claim never having felt pride in the

membership in the European Union and 22% in the membership in NATO.

Figure 4. Feeling proud of the Republic of Estonia’s memberships (%; N = all respondents)

9

22

16

21

18

27

35

29

31

32

8

3

5

4

5

44

37

44

38

39

12

3

6

6

6

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Very often Often enough Don't know Sometimes Never

4

20

6

6

7

7

14

16

15

6

12

4

4

8

5

11

13

10

7

26

16

19

18

23

22

23

20

15

25

15

19

20

24

23

24

22

17

8

8

7

7

4

8

11

10

11

6

5

4

4

3

7

9

8

19

39

36

36

38

37

35

29

33

40

45

48

47

43

46

45

38

43

53

7

34

33

30

28

22

21

22

28

12

27

25

25

22

15

16

17

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Constantly Often enough Don't know Sometimes Never

EUROOPA LIIT

NATO



Based on the language of communication, there are significant differences regarding the attitudes

towards the membership in the European Union and NATO. The differences are especially great for the

membership in NATO: 46% of Estonians feel proud and happy for it, while only 11% of the

Russian-speaking respondents feel the same. 53% of the speakers of other languages claim that

they have never felt proud over Estonia’s membership in NATO. Only 7% of Estonian-speaking

respondents agree.

37% of Estonian and 21% of Russian-speaking respondents are constantly or often enough

happy to belong to the European Union. The proportions of people who never feel happy about it

are 12% and 28% respectively.

The following table shows how pride and happiness over living in Estonia and belonging to the European

Union and NATO is connected to the assessments given to the development of Estonian life. Positive

attitudes towards the general development of Estonia come with a greater feeling of pride and vice

versa—there are significantly fewer people who feel proud and happy over living in Estonia and

belonging to both the European Union and NATO among those who perceive Estonian development as

negative.

Table 3 – Link between assessments given to life in Estonia and feelings of pride and

happiness over Estonia

Do you feel proud and happy … Life in Estonia has

changed for

the better

remained the

same

changed for

the worse

… over living in Estonia

very often or often enough

never

65%

2%

48%

5%

39%

14%

… over Estonia’s EU membership


never

48%

9%

30%

15%

18%

31%

… over Estonia’s NATO

membership


never

50%

14%

34%

19%

23%

35%



2 Confidence in institutions

The survey addresses the population’s confidence in several state and international institutions. The

selection of institutions is based on their important role in shaping, implementing or supporting the

Estonian security policy.

2.1 General background

Respondents evaluated the trustworthiness of the institutions using a scale with four categories:

completely trust, rather trust, rather do not trust, and do not trust at all. Of the ten institutions

included in the survey, people have the biggest confidence in the Rescue Services—as many as

95% of the Estonian population trusts them, they are followed by the Police, Defence Forces

and Defence League (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Confidence in institutions. (%; N = all respondents)

Since the spring survey was conducted immediately after the parliamentary elections, people’s trust in

political institutions was higher than usual. The trust in the Parliament and Government remains

positive in the autumn but there has been a significant decrease, while the number of people who trust

and mistrust the Prime Minister is equal. The changes in trusting other institutions have been minimal.

The level of confidence in all institutions is higher among the Estonian-speaking population

compared to non-Estonians (Figure 6). Differences are great in case of all institutions, except the

Rescue Services and Police. The greatest differences are revealed in the attitudes towards NATO

(trusted completely or rather completely by 78% of the Estonian-speaking population and 24% of

speakers of other languages), the Defence League (85% vs 36%), President (74% vs. 28%), Prime

Minister (54% vs 24%) and Defence Forces (91% vs 51%).

-45

-42

-40

-33

-29

-28

-14

-15

-12

-3

44

49

50

59

60

60

70

78

85

95

-1

7

10

26

31

32

56

63

73

92

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Prime Minister

Government

Parliament/Riigikogu

President

European Union

NATO

Defence League

Defence Forces

Police

Rescue Service

Distrust compeletely/rather Trust completely/rather Balance



Figure 6. Confidence in institutions in the eyes of the Estonian-speaking and foreign-

speaking population (% of those who trust the institutions completely and rather trust them; N = all

respondents)

2.1 Defence structures

The Defence Forces, which holds 3rd place in the trustworthiness ranking after the Rescue Services,

2nd place in the trustworthiness ranking of Estonians, was trusted by 78% of the population of

Estonia as at October 2015 (Figure 7). This has not changed compared to spring.

While the trustworthiness of the Defence Forces has remained at a constantly high level for years

(slightly under or over 90 per cent) according to the native speakers of Estonian, a tendency towards

decline can be viewed on the basis of the answers of Russian-speaking respondents from last spring

onwards. This is probably affected by the information from the Russian mass media (published due to

the armed conflict between the Ukraine and Russia) which criticises NATO and undoubtedly has an

effect on the attitude towards the Estonian Defence Forces.

Figure 7. Confidence in the Defence Forces in 2000–2015; comparison of the assessments by

the Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population (% of those who trust it completely or

rather trust it; N = all respondents)

24

36

30

47

28

24

36

51

81

91

54

56

57

65

74

78

85

91

87

96

0 20 40 60 80 100

Prime Minister

Government

Parliament/Riigikogu

President

European Union

NATO

Defence League

Defence Forces

Police

Rescue Service

Estonians Non-Estonians

5864

59

6874 71 73 73

67

75 7579

7476 74

80 7884

79 8176

81 8180 83 83

7679

7582

84 83 8278

78

53

58

56

6773

64

74

8479 81 79

74

82 8480

85 8481

85 8487 89 88 87

91 90 90 91 9288

9186

90 90 92 93 90 91

3935

40 4045

4954

4952 53

61

52

6055 56

50

58 60

6865

75

6066

48

5962

5862 62

4953

48

60

6762

58

49

51

0

20

40

60

80

100

01/2

000

05/2

000

10/2

000

02/2

001

06/2

001

10/2

001

03/2

002

06/2

002

10/2

002

02/2

003

06/2

003

10/2

003

02/2

004

06/2

004

10/2

004

03/2

005

06/2

005

11/2

005

05/2

006

09/2

006

12/2

006

06/2

007

01/2

008

08/2

008

01/2

009

05/2

009

01/2

010

09/2

010

08/2

011

10/2

011

03/2

012

10/2

012

03/2

013

10/2

013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015

TOTAL Estonians Non-Estonians



The Defence League is placed among the most trustworthy institutions right after the

Defence Forces—as at March 2015, 71% of the Estonian population trusted the Defence

League (Figure 8).

Even with the Defence League, the non-Estonians’ trust pattern is similar to that of the Defence

Forces—the Russian-speaking respondents’ trust in the Defence League has been in clear decline since

last spring. According to the current survey, the Defence League is trusted by 85% of Estonians and

only 36 per cent of the Russian-speaking population.

Figure 8. Confidence in the Defence League in 2000–2015; a comparison of assessments by

the Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population (% of those who trust it completely or

rather trust it; N = all respondents)

3945

4248

5357 58 58 56

5956 54

58 59 57

6865 66

6265 64

6864

6871

68 67 6964

74 75 73 7471 70

39 41 39

4854

5055

64 64 66 64 6568 67 66 67 67 66

7774 74

77 79 77 7975

80 82 8279

84

76

85 85 8589

86 85

2023 22 22

25 2730

23

40 4045

36 3832 31

34

4138

4742

46

33 33 34

43 42 42 4337 38

35 36

4851

4642 40

36

0

20

40

60

80

100

01/2

000

05/2

000

10/2

000

02/2

001

06/2

001

10/2

001

03/2

002

06/2

002

10/2

002

02/2

003

06/2

003

10/2

003

02/2

004

06/2

004

10/2

004

03/2

005

06/2

005

11/2

005

05/2

006

09/2

006

12/2

006

06/2

007

01/2

008

08/2

008

01/2

009

05/2

009

01/2

010

09/2

010

08/2

011

10/2

011

03/2

012

10/2

012

03/2

013

10/2

013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015

TOTAL Estonians Non-Estonians



3 Security and threats

The third chapter provides an overview of security issues: what kind of situation is expected to occur in

the world and Estonia in the coming decade, which threats to Estonia are considered probable by the

population in the coming years, and what would help to ensure the security of Estonia.

3.1 Security in the world

The question about world security was presented in the following wording:

What do you think, will the world become more secure and the risk of military conflicts

reduce, or, conversely, will the instability increase in the world and the probability of

military conflicts grow in the coming decade?

The number of people who believe that instability and the probability of military conflicts will

grow in the world in the coming decade has remained as high as it was in spring (Figure 9).

Only 7% believe that the world is becoming more secure in the coming decade while 16% think that

the situation will remain unchanged. The long term trend has been presented on Figure 10.

Figure 9. Situation in the world in the coming decade, 2011–2015 comparison (%; N = all respondents)

14

13

12

15

15

10

8

7

7

30

26

29

35

32

26

20

15

16

49

57

56

46

50

62

66

70

71

8

3

4

3

3

3

6

8

6

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2011/10

2012/03

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Situation in the world

Situation will become more secure

Situation is not going to change

Increased risk of military conflicts/ situation less secure

Don't know



Figure 10. Situation in the world in the coming decade; 2000–2015 comparison (%; N = all respondents)

Estonians and non-Estonians assess the state of world security differently.

Estonians are more sensitive about the world’s security risks—as many as 76% believe that the

situation is worsening. 58% of Russian-speaking respondents share that view, yet compared to

Estonians, there are more people who think the situation will remain unchanged (22% in comparison to

13% of Estonians). Only 5 per cent of Estonians and 13 per cent of the Russian-speaking respondents

believe that the world could become more secure in the coming years.

3.2 Security in Estonia

The question about the security in Estonia was presented in the following wording:

What do you think, what will the situation in Estonia be? Will the population be living in

more secure or insecure conditions in ten years from now?

The security situation in Estonia is perceived to be more positive compared to the situation

in the world in general, yet this assessment has also become more negative compared to the

spring survey: only 23 per cent believe that in ten years, Estonian citizens will be living in more

secure conditions than now. The proportions of those who presume that the situation will remain

unchanged and those who predict an increase in insecurity are both 31 per cent.

25 23

12 14 15 1317 17 18

13

20

12 13 1512 12 14

1215

117

1114

1815

914 13 12

15 1510 8 7 7

40

25

53

43 41

4750

41

34

4340

51 49 4744

50

56

4348 48

65

56

45 44 44

63

49

57 56

4650

6266

70 71

0

20

40

60

80

01/2

000

06/2

001

10/2

001

03/2

002

06/2

002

10/2

002

02/2

003

06/2

003

10/2

003

02/2

004

06/2

004

10/2

004

03/2

005

06/2

005

11/2

005

05/2

006

09/2

006

12/2

006

06/2

007

01/2

008

08/2

008

01/2

009

05/2

009

01/2

010

09/2

010

08/2

011

10/2

011

03/2

012

10/2

012

03/2

013

10/2

013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015

Situation will be more secure Increased risk of military conflicts



Figure 11. Situation in Estonia in the coming decade, 2011–2015 comparison (%; N = all respondents)

Compared to Russian-speaking respondents, Estonians also believe Estonia’s future to be bleaker:

34 per cent of Estonians (24% of Russian-speaking respondents) predict the growth of insecurity. The

proportions of those who believe the future to be more secure are equal (24% of Estonians and 22% of

Russian-speaking respondents), compared to Estonians, more Russian-speaking respondents think the

situation is most likely to remain unchanged (38 per cent vs 28 per cent of Estonians).

24

23

22

27

23

20

26

32

23

35

38

41

42

44

40

35

32

31

29

34

30

28

28

34

26

19

31

13

5

7

4

5

6

13

17

15

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2011/10

2012/03

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Situation will become more secure Situation is not going to change

Increased risk of military conflicts/ situation less secure Don't know



3.3 Threats to world security

The respondents were asked to assess the effect various factors have on peace and security in the

world.

The most important threats pointed out by the respondents are the activities of the Islamic

State (64%) and terrorist networks (59%). The answer “this certainly” was also widely used for

organised crime (40%) and Russia’s activities to restore its authority (39%). However, almost all of the

threats listed in the question are pointed out together with the answer “to some extent”. The

respondents feel the least threatened by China’s growing influence in the world, the spread of

epidemics and global climate changes (Figure 12).

Figure 12. Dangers to peace and security in the world in 2015 (%; N = all respondents)

44

64

44

59

26

40

31

34

37

29

34

22

31

27

30

21

25

46

39

15

22

21

19

37

26

40

33

47

43

48

47

43

47

44

47

45

41

41

44

46

25

30

40

43

41

46

9

4

9

4

20

12

12

9

13

16

14

18

13

22

18

27

22

25

25

25

20

29

26

10

6

7

4

7

5

9

8

6

8

8

13

11

10

11

8

7

4

6

20

15

9

9

0% 50% 100%

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

2015/03

2015/10

Certainly To some extent Certainly not Don't know

Activities of the Islamic State

Activities of the terrorist

network

Organised crime

Global economis crisis

Armed conflict in Ukraine

Depletion of natural

resources

Contradictions between

rich and poor countries

Economic and military capability of the USA

Global climate change

Russian activities in

restoring its authority

Increase in the economic

and military capability of China

Spread of epidemics



While Estonians and Russian-speaking respondents assess many global threats similarly, there is a

fundamental difference in the assessment of steps taken by Russia to restore its authority over

the former Soviet territories. For Estonians, it occupies the third place on the threat scale (53% of

Estonians see it as a certain threat), yet Russian-speaking respondents place it last (7%). (Figure 13)

63% of the Russian-speaking respondents do not see Russia as a threat to world security.

The fear of Russia has decreased among Estonians as well—in spring, Russia’s activities were still

clearly considered to be the number one threat among factors threatening world security (with 64 per

cent), whereas now the position of the main threat to world peace is taken over by the Islamic State

and people even see international terrorism as a greater threat compared to Russia.

Figure 13. Dangers to peace and security in the world in 2015, answers “this certainly” (%; comparison of Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking respondents)

While Estonian respondents evaluate all threats as slightly more important than the average, Russian-

speaking respondents only deem the activities of terrorist networks and organised crime more

dangerous.

18

25

25

29

32

36

37

37

42

53

56

64

20

15

23

32

28

30

47

28

26

7

66

64

0 20 40 60 80

Spread of epidemics

Increase in the economic andmilitary capability of China

Global climate change

Economic and military capability of the USA

Contradictions between rich and poor countries

Depletion of natural resources

Organised crime

Global economis crisis

Armed conflict in Ukraine

Russian activities in restoring its authority

Activities of the terrorist network

Activities of the Islamic State

Non-Estonians Estonians



3.4 Threats to Estonia

The respondents were presented with 12 different potential threats and asked to assess the probability

of their occurrence in the forthcoming years (Figure 14).

There are three main threats, the occurrence of which more than a half of the respondents considered

very or rather probable in Estonia in the forthcoming years: 69% of people think there might be an

organised attack (a so-called cyber-attack) against the Estonian state information systems, 61%

believe that a foreign state may interfere in Estonia’s policy or economy in their own

interests, and 50% are of the opinion that the country may face an extensive marine pollution.

The public has highlighted these three security threats for several years.

Compared to the previous surveys, the number of people who think clashes on ethnic or religious

grounds and a large-scale military attack are probable has grown significantly. In March, 34% of

respondents shared that view, whereas the respective indicator was 45 per cent in the current survey.

Such a rise might be influenced by the expected arrival of refugees—many protests organised by

national-conservative forces give reason to fear possible clashes. 50% of the respondents believe such

conflicts to be improbable.

The proportion of respondents who consider an act of terror probable has also grown—from 28 per cent

in March to 57 per cent in October. However, the number of respondents who think an act of terror is

improbable is still greater—57 per cent of the respondents.

While in autumn 2013, 13 per cent of Estonians and 10 per cent of Russian-speaking respondents

considered a limited or large-scale military attack against Estonia probable, then by spring 2015, the

respective proportions had risen to 30 and 36 per cent respectively. Now, in October, the proportion of

people who consider a military attack probable has fallen to 26 per cent, which is approximately at the

same level as in spring 2014.

An attack on Estonian citizens in a foreign country is considered very or rather probable by 37%, large-

scale street riots by 30%, economic collapse of the Republic of Estonia by 22% and an explosion of an

oil train passing through Estonia or an explosion of an oil terminal and a nuclear disaster in a nuclear

power plant close to Estonia by 21%.



Figure 14. Probability of different threats endangering Estonia in the forthcoming years, 2014–2015 comparison (%; N = all respondent)

3

3

2

3

2

1

3

2

4

4

4

9

2

4

4

3

5

6

7

3

6

9

7

8

8

6

4

4

4

6

5

11

5

3

4

5

10

8

9

9

19

23

20

23

24

28

27

26

18

20

20

18

20

25

20

19

20

23

24

28

23

25

26

23

22

27

29

23

24

30

31

29

23

15

16

18

28

23

29

34

29

27

22

25

44

45

41

41

45

42

41

38

51

44

44

43

3

7

7

9

2

7

8

9

2

5

6

7

4

9

10

10

2

6

7

7

3

10

11

7

3

6

9

8

1

4

6

5

1

4

6

5

2

4

7

6

2

6

8

7

2

6

7

6

56

50

49

50

58

53

50

51

60

55

52

47

52

43

40

45

51

41

39

46

47

36

31

35

51

48

45

41

50

49

41

38

52

51

50

49

38

36

37

37

29

23

23

24

19

16

15

19

20

20

22

20

17

14

19

19

15

13

14

10

19

19

20

19

20

20

18

21

19

15

20

21

16

25

26

29

16

18

19

12

13

15

18

16

7

7

6

7

5

6

8

8

4

6

7

6

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Nuclear disaster at a nuclear power station

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Explosion of a fuel train or in an oil terminal

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Act of terrorism

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Limited military attack against a strategic site

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Large-scale military attack by a foreign country

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Attack on the citizens of Estonia in a foreign country

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Economic collapse of Estonia

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

between population groups

Clashes on ethnic or religious grounds

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Mass street riots

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Extensive marine pollution

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

policy or economy

Foreign state interfering into Estonia's

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

against the Estonian state information systems

Organised attacks (cyber-attacks)

Very probable Rather probable Don't know Rather improbable Completely improbable



Even the assessment of Estonia’s internal dangers reveals important differences in view of the

respondents’ main language of communication (Figure 15). Estonians consider most of the dangers

more probable than the Russian-speaking respondents. The only exceptions are the economic

collapse of the Republic of Estonia and an extensive marine pollution, which Russian-speaking

respondents find more probable than Estonians. The possibility of an act of terror is considered equally

probable.

The Estonian respondents find cyber-attacks (respectively 80% and 44%), a foreign state’s interference

to influence Estonia’s policy or economy in their own interests (66% vs. 52%), a large-scale military

attack (32% and 15%) or a limited military attack against a strategic site (32% and 14%) and attacks

on the citizens of Estonia in a foreign country (40% and 30%) considerably more probable than

Russian-speakers.

The proportion of people who consider clashes on ethnic grounds probable has grown among both

Estonian and Russian-speaking respondents, from 37 to 50 per cent among Estonians and from 29 to

35 per cent among Russians.

Figure 15. Probability of different threats endangering Estonia in the forthcoming years;

comparison of the assessments among the Estonian-speaking and Russian-speaking population (%; N = all respondents)

24

23

118

15

24

78

63

912

55

147

2124

1033

1618

1523

2529

1327

1328

2332

1917

2638

2127

3942

3142

3447

0 20 40 60 80 100

OtherEstonian

Nuclear disaster at a nuclear power stationOther

EstonianExplosion of a fuel train or in an oil terminal

OtherEstonian

Act of terrorismOther

EstonianLimited military attack against a strategic site

OtherEstonian

Large-scale military attack by a foreign countryOther

EstonianAttack on the citizens of Estonia in a foreign country

OtherEstonian

Economic collapse of EstoniaOther

Estonianbetween population groups

Clashes on ethnic or religious groundsOther

EstonianMass street riots

OtherEstonian

Extensive marine pollutionOther

Estonianpolicy or economy

Foreign state interfering into Estonia'sOther

Estonianagainst the Estonian state information systems

Organised attacks (cyber-attacks)

Very probable Rather probable



3.5 Security guarantees

Estonia’s membership in NATO was the most important factor that would ensure maximum security

to Estonia according to the respondents, similarly to previous surveys. This is mentioned as one of the

important factors by 57% of the respondents and the result is mainly achieved with the help of

Estonian respondents: while 73 per cent of Estonians consider NATO the main security guarantee, the

respective indicator among the Russian-speaking respondents is 22 per cent (Figure 16).

It is followed by the development of Estonia’s own independent defence capability, which is

mentioned as one of the main security guarantees by 42% of Estonian residents. Even here there is a

fundamental difference between the assessments given by Estonians and Russian-speaking

respondents: the development of independent defence capability is considered among the three most

important security guarantees by 45% and 34% of the respondents respectively.

Mostly due to the impact of respondents speaking other languages, these two factors are followed by

cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia, which are pointed out by 60 per cent of

Russian-speaking respondents and only 15 per cent of Estonians. The support for the defence

cooperation with the Baltic States (23%) and membership in the European Union (18%) is more or less

equal among the two language groups.

Figure 16. Security guarantees for Estonia (up to 3 of the most important factors); comparison of the assessments among the Estonian-speaking and Russian-speaking

population (%; N = all respondents)

Compared to the previous survey, the significance of most security guarantees has slightly declined.

This could be the result of a new category being added to the list; it gained the support of 16 per cent

of the respondents: permanent presence of allied forces in Estonia. This security guarantee is also more

valued by Estonian respondents. Russian-speaking respondents, however, consider the role of UN and

OSCE more important in ensuring security.

3

16

6

18

10

5

10

20

22

60

34

22

2

6

13

9

15

21

19

17

24

15

45

73

2

9

11

12

14

16

16

18

23

29

42

57

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Don't know

Membership in OSCE

Participation in international military operations

Membership in UN

Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries

Permanent presence of allied forces in Estonia

Good relations and cooperation with the USA

Membership in European Union

Defense cooperation between Baltic states

Cooperation and good relations with Russia

Development of Estonia's independent defence capabilities

Membership in NATO

ALL Estonians Non-Estonians



4 Defence willingness among the population of Estonia

Defence willingness among the population of Estonia is measured with three questions. The so-called

passive defence willingness is expressed through the opinion on whether Estonia should be defended in

case a foreign enemy attacks (“If Estonia is attacked by any country, should we, in any case, provide

armed resistance, regardless of the attacker?”), active defence willingness is expressed through the

person’s willingness to participate in national defence with his/her own skills and competence (“If

Estonia is attacked, are you ready to participate in defence activities using your own competence and

skills?”). The proportion of those expressing the will to leave Estonia in case of an attack is also

mapped.

Defence willingness is also related to the topics of how much the people are informed about the ways in

which one can protect Estonia in the event of a possible attack.

4.1 Attitude towards the necessity of resistance

In the event of a foreign attack, armed resistance is regarded certainly necessary by 43% and probably

necessary by 36% of the population (Figure 17). Thus, a total of 79% of the population is in

favour of military resistance, while it is regarded as unnecessary by 13% of the population.

Estonian-speaking respondents tend to consider armed resistance slightly more necessary than non-

Estonians (certainly necessary according to 47% of the Estonian-speaking and 34% of the Russian-

speaking population, respectively), while only 15% of the latter believe that resistance is not necessary

(the number of people who answered “cannot say” is the same).

Figure 17. Necessity for the provision of armed resistance, if Estonia is attacked by any country (%; N = all respondents)

The increase in the number of people who consider armed resistance necessary in March has again

fallen to the level it was the year before. It is possible that the increase in March occurred due to

national defence being more topical before the parliamentary elections, which undoubtedly mobilised

public opinion.

The long term trend of considering armed resistance necessary has been presented on Figure 18 (for

the entire population) and Figure 19 as a comparison of Estonians and Russian-speaking respondents.

34

47

41

49

43

37

35

38

34

36

14

6

10

6

8

8

10

7

7

9

7

2

4

4

4

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not



Figure 18. Necessity of armed resistance if Estonia is attacked by any country; 2000–2015

comparison (%; N = all respondents)

Figure 19. Proportion of the proponents of armed resistance in the event of an attack;

comparison of the Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population 2006–2015

(% of those considering resistance certainly and probably necessary; N = all respondents)

68

56 5966

61 64 6559

69 6964 64

71 6864 66 67 66 69 69

78 7773 71

78 77 77 74 74 7378

7379 79 82 79

8379

1926 29

22 24 23 23 23 25 2430 31

23 24 24 25 24 24 20 2416 12

17 1915 14 17 18 19 17 17

2217 17 15

11 11 13

0

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015

We should certainly/probably provide armed resistance We certainly/probably shouldn't provide armed resistance

6977 80 77 73

79 79 80 79 8075

8174

78 79 82 8389

82

69

80

7063 66

7773

6862 63

68 70 71

83 80 83

70 71 71

0

20

40

60

80

100

09

/20

06

12

/20

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/20

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/20

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/20

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/20

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/20

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/20

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/20

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12

03

/20

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/20

13

03

/20

14

11

/20

14

03

/20

15

10

/20

15




4.2 Willingness to participate in defence activities

The number of those willing to participate personally in defence activities is lower than the proportion of

those supporting armed resistance at the state level. While state-level armed resistance is considered

necessary by 79%, 55% of the population would be willing to participate in defence activities

to the extent of their own capabilities and skills (Figure 20). 27% of the population of Estonia

would be certainly willing and 28% probably willing to participate in defence activities. 17% would

certainly not and 19% would probably not be willing to contribute to defence activities.

The difference between Estonians and people who speak other languages is even more significant in the

question of active defence willingness compared to passive defence willingness. While 62% of

Estonians would be willing to participate personally in defence activities, the respective

indicator for non-Estonians is only 42%.

When interpreting defence willingness, it should be considered that participation in national defence has

been a traditionally male task, and, therefore, the readiness to contribute is inevitably lower among

female and older respondents (for instance, only 37 per cent of respondents over 60 years of age would

be willing to participate in defence activities while the respective proportion of respondents under 20

years of age is 74 per cent). Additionally, the percentage of Russian-speaking respondents remains

lower than average because conscript service is not compulsory for non-citizens. The completion of

conscript service, however, is a prerequisite for participating in armed resistance.

The awareness of personal contribution possibilities will be discussed in the fourth part of this chapter

(4.4).

Figure 20. Willingness to participate in defence activities if Estonia is attacked (%; N= all respondents)

Defence willingness is seen in a more positive perspective when we only look at men’s willingness to

participate in defence activities. Even though defence willingness is lower among Russian-speaking

male citizens compared to Estonian men, over 80 per cent of male citizens under 35 years of age and

three fourths of those under 50 years of age would personally contribute to national defence.

Table 4 – Willingness to certainly or probably participate in defence activities among male citizens by age groups

LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION

15-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Estonian 84% 78% 74% 52%

Russian 75% 62% 41% 37%

ALL men / citizens 82% 74% 69% 51%

19

37

17

32

26

29

27

25

32

25

30

30

30

28

9

8

13

7

9

8

9

22

15

17

19

20

16

19

24

8

28

12

15

17

17

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Female

Male

GENDER (2015/10)

Russian

Estonian

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10




If we view the temporal change of participatory willingness by nationality and citizenship, it becomes

evident that, in 2006, defence willingness among non-Estonians with Estonian citizenship was at a

comparable level with that of Estonians. After the so-called Bronze Night events in 2007 this willingness

dropped significantly both among non-Estonians with Estonian citizenship and those without citizenship

(Figure 21). The years 2013–2014 saw an improvement in the defence willingness among non-Estonian

citizens, but in the last three surveys this willingness has decreased again and reached a comparable

level with that of non-citizens.

Figure 21. Proportion of the population willing to participate in defence activities in the

event of an attack; comparison of the Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population

2000–2015 (% of those certainly and probably willing to participate; N = all respondents)

67

6063 61

67

61

68 67 69 73

70

6973

70 7174

71 70

64 6469

66

71 7074

69 71

62

70

6266 64

6865

67

60

68

62

53

40

52 5451

50

59 57

66

71

74

66

65 64 6358

64 6357

64

65 60

48 46

53

42

54 52 51

3943

40

55 54 54

45 4744

43

33

44

52

44

61

59

49

6663 61

57 5963

56 58 5963

51 51

56

49

43 4144

52

52 52

46

36 3538 39 38 36

45

3843

0

20

40

60

80

01/2

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013

10/2

013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015

Estonians Non-Estonians/citizens Non-Estonians/non-citizens



4.3 Desire to leave Estonia in the event of a military threat

In case Estonia is attacked, a fifth of Estonians (22%) would consider leaving Estonia: in

such a situation, 6% would certainly endeavour to leave and 16% would probably do it (Figure 22).

68% of the population would certainly not or probably not endeavour to leave Estonia in the event of a

threat. These proportions have remained quite stable in the past few years.

The people most prone to leave Estonia are women (certainly or probably 25%) and younger people up

to 39 years of age (more than one third). 32% of Russian-speaking respondents and 16% of Estonians

would probably leave Estonia.

Figure 22. Probability of leaving Estonia in case Estonia is attacked (%; N = all respondents)

When taking into account the whole data from the beginning of the survey series, it can be seen that

the Russian-speaking respondents have expressed higher willingness to leave since the year 2007, the

willingness rose to as high as 42 per cent in 2013 and has then remained at 30 per cent since 2014.

Estonians’ willingness to leave was also slightly higher during the recession years from 2010 to 2013,

when one fifth of Estonians would have considered leaving (Figure 23).

Figure 23. Proportion of those desiring to leave Estonia in the event of an attack; comparison of the Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population 2000–2015 (% of those desiring to leave certainly and those who would probably do it; N = all respondents)

7

9

9

6

6

7

6

6

17

18

15

18

14

15

14

16

4

8

7

5

6

8

11

10

41

38

37

39

44

30

29

30

31

28

32

31

30

40

40

38

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2012/03

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10


12 13

17 1613

1512 12

15

11 11 10

1513 13 13

15 1513 13 13

1012

16 15 14

2017

2118 19 20 19

21

1619

16 16

1922

2523

1821

14

1821

15 1619

24

2022

24 25 24

16

24

1316

21 23 2426 25

27 27

3638

42

37

3330 30 31 32

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015

10/2

015




4.4 Ability to act in the event of a potential attack

In order to obtain an overview of the population’s awareness in terms of defence, the respondents were

asked to tell whether they considered themselves to be adequately informed about what to do in the

event of an impending foreign attack. The results show that, people consider their ability to act in

the event of a potential attack rather poor: only one fourth would know what they could do for

defending the state in such circumstances but 69% say that they are rather not informed of certainly

not informed about this (Figure 24). Still, the level of awareness is slightly higher in 2015 than in the

previous years.

Figure 24. Being informed about the possibilities of what to do for defending Estonia in the event of an impending foreign attack (%; N = all respondents)

Men consider their awareness to be higher than women (35% vs 16%)—this could be explained by

more contacts with national defence structures (conscription, the Defence League). The tendency of

Estonians being somewhat better informed than Russian-speaking respondents is declining. While in

spring, 30% of Estonians and 20% of Russian-speaking respondents were informed enough or generally

informed, the difference was only 3 per cent this time (26% vs 23%).

4.5 On which topics do you require more information?

As throughout the surveys the population has assessed its level of being informed as very low in view

of the topic of what to do in the event of a foreign attack, in November 2014 we included a question

about the topics regarding the state’s activities and organisation of personal life on which people

require the most information in the event of a foreign attack (Figure 25). Respondents had to choose

three topics most important to them out of nine given topics.

3

10

5

7

4

3

4

5

6

7

10

7

13

25

18

19

16

13

16

17

18

15

17

18

8

4

9

5

2

3

2

3

1

4

4

6

40

39

33

42

47

48

47

45

48

42

42

40

36

22

35

27

31

33

31

30

27

32

27

29

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Female

Male

GENDER (10/2015)

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2012/03

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Yes, sufficiently/I know for sure Generally yes/ I know Don't know Rather not Certainly not



Figure 25. On which topics do you require more information? (%; N = all respondents)

The three most important topics which were highlighted in both surveys and on which further

information is needed are related to the role of civilians in case of a conflict: how the general public

is informed, how to act when one has entered a combat zone as a civilian and how

evacuation is organised.

The information needs of male and female respondents differ to an extent.

Even though men are also concerned with the three topics listed as the most important in the general

ranking, their focus is on how the mobilisation will be organised, how a civilian can contribute to

supporting the military and what the respondent’s obligations are in national defence (Figure 26).

Figure 25. On which topics do you require more information? Comparison of men and women (%; N = all respondents)

14

17

20

20

26

30

40

45

43

11

16

19

18

21

28

41

44

44

11

15

17

21

22

27

38

40

42

0 10 20 30 40 50

What are my obligations concerning national defence in my workplace

How will public services be available and which ones

How can I support the military as civilian

What are you obligations in national defence

How is the mobilisation organised

How are primary household problems solved

How will the population be evacuated from the battle area

How to act in the event when you have entered a battle area as a civilian

How will the public be informed

Oct. 2015 March 2015 Nov. 2014

14

15

26

20

25

21

31

42

34

9

15

17

15

19

31

43

42

44

0 10 20 30 40 50

What are my obligations concerning national defence in my workplace

How will public services be available and which ones

What are you obligations in national defence

How can I support the military as civilian

How is the mobilisation organised

How are primary household problems solved

How will the population be evacuated from the battle area

How will the public be informed

How to act in the event when you have entered a battle area as a civilian

female male



5 Defence capability of Estonia

The fifth chapter reflects attitudes within the population in relation to Estonia’s defence capability, the

volume of defence expenditures and the state’s activities regarding the development of national

defence.

5.1 Assessment of the defence capability of Estonia

Respondents were asked to say whether they think Estonia is defendable until help arrives from the

allies in the event of an armed foreign attack. Since last autumn, the proportion of respondents who

believe that it would be possible to defend Estonia in the event of an armed foreign attack has

reached over 50 per cent. The proportion of those respondents who find that Estonia cannot be

defended has fallen to one third of all the respondents—in March 2014, this indicator was still at 46%

(Figure 27).

Figure 27. Assessment of the defence capability of Estonia in the event of an armed foreign attack (%; N = all respondents)

Estonians give a more positive assessment to Estonia’s defence capability—more than 60 per cent

regard Estonia defensible. Assessments given by Russian-speaking respondents are equally positive

and sceptic, more than one fourth of Russian-speaking respondents say they do not have a view in this

question.

10

15

8

9

11

9

12

14

13

28

46

37

41

36

38

39

42

40

27

9

9

7

9

7

17

12

15

24

25

35

34

37

37

25

24

25

11

5

12

9

7

9

7

8

7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10




5.2 Views on the volume of defence expenditures

Assessments given to the volume of Estonian defence expenditures reveal that a majority of the

respondents think that defence expenditures should be kept at the current level (Figure 28). An

increase in defence expenditures is favoured by 28% and decrease by 19% of the

population.

Figure 28. Views on the volume of defence expenditures; 2000–2015 comparison (%; N = all

respondents)

Estonians’ attitude towards defence expenditures is inversely proportional to that of the

Russian-speaking respondents: there are fewer supporters of increasing the volume of

defence expenditures among Estonians than there are of supporters of decreasing it among

Russian-speaking residents. (Figure 29) The number of those in favour of increasing defence

expenditures among Russian-speaking respondents is equal to Estonians wishing for a decrease.

In March 2015, 33% of Estonian-speaking residents and 9% of residents who speak other languages

were of the opinion that the volume of defence expenditures should be increased; 7% of Estonian

speakers and 45% of foreign language speakers were in favour of expenditure cuts.

Figure 29. Views on the volume of defence expenditures; comparison of the Estonian-speaking and non-Estonian-speaking population 2006–2015 (%; N = all respondents)

9 7 7 5 8 6 6 8 7 8 8 5 5 4 6 7 6 9 9 6 7 8 124 3 4 4 6 6 4 5 4 6 7 7 8 5

19 27 24 29 26 29 30 25 25 27 2725 23 21

26 27 27

3527 33 30 26

28

2215

22 2315

2117 18 18 20

25 2225

20

28

31 3438 35 37 36 44 45

44 4445 50 53

4546 44

3745 40

39 4543

4752

51 48

48 35 45 44 48 45

4747 38

44

23

19 1912 16

15 14 8 810 8

1110 9 10

9 12 8 9 10 13 119

9 10

9 1013

18 8 1010 9

6 911 12

1110 10 9 8 8 7 10 9

7 8 9 8 7 8 7 7 8 6 7 7 6 5

9 119 10

12 1116 15

12 1210 6 10 11

10 6 6 7 7 5 7 5 6 4 5 5 4 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 39 9 5 5 7 9 10 9 7 7 5 9 8 8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

05/2

000

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007

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012

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012

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013

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013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015

Increase significantly Increase by a certain amount Maintain at the current level Don't know Decrease by a certain amount Decrease significantly

41

47 4742

49

32

24

3033

27

35

29 28 2933

4037

43

332318

15 1519

11

4

1713

711

4

107

9 11 11 129

9 7 6 4 4

10 129 9 11 9

15 1511

139

5 77

15

2319 20 20

35 36

2428

35

45

52

4239

3531

37

4445

0

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60

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010

09/2

010

08/2

011

10/2

011

03/2

012

10/2

012

03/2

013

10/2

013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015

Estonians favouring an increase in expenditures Non-Estonians favouring an increase in expenditures

Estonians favouring defence cuts Non-Estonians favouring defence cuts



5.3 Preparedness for making a personal donation to national

defence

Many people do not seem to realise that there is a direct connection between their own income and

appropriations from the state budget—increasing or decreasing budgetary spending on national defence

seems relatively abstract to them. The preparedness for making a personal donation to national

defence is a much better indicator of people’s attitudes towards the need to strengthen national

defence.

The survey reveals that 28 per cent of the respondents would be certainly or probably willing to

make a contribution. 63 per cent of the respondents would probably or certainly not make a donation to

national defence. These proportions have remained unchanged throughout the last three surveys,

which shows the stability of the willingness to donate (Figure 30).

35 per cent of Estonians would be willing to make a financial contribution to national defence, whereas

only one seventh of the Russian-speaking respondents are willing to do so.

Figure 30. Preparedness for making a personal donation to Estonian national defence (%; N = all respondents)

4

6

6

6

5

9

29

22

23

23

10

8

9

8

9

20

31

29

29

27

57

26

34

34

36

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10




5.4 Assessment of state activities in view of the development of national defence

In spring 2014, 73% of the population provided a positive assessment to the state’s activities in view of

the development of national defence, yet the figure had dropped to 62% by November last year. In

March 2015, the assessments given to the state’s activities improved again (70%) and this indicator

remains the same in October—71 per cent of the respondents find the state’s activities very good or

good enough. The proportion of negative assessments was only 12% (Figure 31).

Similar to other opinions and views on national defence, the Estonian-speaking population values

activities related to national defence development higher than non-Estonians (80% and 52%,

respectively, regard state activities in developing national defence as good). Still, the assessments

given by Russian-speaking respondents have become more positive as well.

Figure 31. Assessments of state activities in recent years in view of the development of Estonia’s national defence (%; N = all respondents)

8

11

3

7

5

6

8

7

7

10

10

43

69

54

61

60

66

65

66

55

60

61

31

12

24

14

16

13

14

10

23

17

17

13

7

16

15

16

13

11

15

13

11

9

5

1

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2011/10

2012/03

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Very well Rather well Don't know Rather badly Very badly



5.5 Assessments on the defence of the Estonian border

In 2014, the kidnapping of the Estonian Internal Security Service officer Eston Kohver by the Russian

special services on the Estonian-Russian border resulted in the public discussion on how well the

temporary border line between Estonia and Russia is guarded.

In autumn, after the incident on the border, the majority of the assessments given to this question

were clearly negative, whereas by now, the proportions of positive and negative opinions are more

or less equal. Estonian respondents continue being predominantly critical (Figure 32). Undoubtedly,

the activities on the border have also influenced public opinion: as many as two thirds of Estonians

provided a negative assessment about the defence of the Estonian external border in autumn; the

proportion of critical assessments has fallen to 49% by now.

Only one fourth of the Russian-speaking respondents share the critical view about the Estonian border,

while more than half of the Russian-speaking respondents think that the Estonian external border is

well protected.

Figure 32. Assessment on the defence of the Estonian border (%; N = all respondents)

10

4

6

6

6

44

39

30

39

41

20

8

11

12

11

18

37

37

33

31

8

12

16

10

11

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Very good Rather good Don't know Rather bad Very bad



6 Organisation of Estonian national defence

The sixth chapter discusses various aspects of national defence organisation in Estonia: what are the

attitudes towards conscript service (including its necessity for young men, evasion of conscript service,

alternative service, women undergoing conscript service), whether is it more appropriate for Estonia to

maintain its current defence concept or transfer to a fully professional army, what are the opinions

about comprehensive national defence, and what are the main tasks of the Defence League.

6.1 Attitude towards conscript service

6.1.1. Necessity of conscript service for young men

Estonian population continues to have a very favourable attitude towards conscript service: 93% of all

respondents believe that young men need to undergo conscript service. The proportion of those

who believe that conscript service is certainly necessary has somewhat decreased (67% in March vs

59% now). However, only 6% of the population believe that conscript service is rather or totally

unnecessary. Undergoing conscript service is considered certainly necessary by 64% of the Estonian-

speaking respondents and 48% of the respondents who speak other languages (Figure 33).

The most dedicated supporters of conscript service are people over 60 years of age, but the number of

supporters is nearly 40 per cent even among people under 30, who are influenced by the conscript

service the most, and only one tenth consider it unnecessary.

Figure 33. Attitude towards the necessity of conscript service (%; N = all respondents)

The proportion of the population who consider undergoing conscript service for young men necessary or

rather necessary has remained at a very high level over the years (since 2005, in the range of 85–

95%) (Figure 34).

75

66

56

49

42

46

48

64

59

22

31

37

41

41

49

39

31

34

3

1

3

3

1

1

1

2

1

6

11

5

7

3

4

1

1

3

3

3

3

1

2

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

60+

50-59 a

40-49 a

30-39 a

20-29 a

15-19 a

AGE

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE

TOTAL

Certainly necessary Rather necessary Don't know Rather unnecessary Completely unnecessary



Figure 34. Attitude towards the necessity of conscript service; 2005–2015 comparison (%; N = all respondents)

Since 2012, the respondents have been additionally asked to assess whether young men who have

minor health disorders should be subject to conscript service. 11% of the respondents believe that such

young men should certainly undergo conscript service; however, 61% of the respondents think that

young men with minor health disorders should undergo conscript service with an

appropriate training load (Figure 35).

The most significant differences occur in view of the language of communication. As for Russian-

speaking respondents, 45% hold the opinion that young men with minor health disorders should not

undergo conscript service, while only 15% of Estonian speakers share the same opinion.

Figure 35. Attitudes towards undergoing conscript service regarding young men with minor health disorders (%; N = all respondents)

87 88 88 86 8590 91 90 93 94 93

89 92 92 93 95 93 92 94 94 93

11 10 10 11 138 6 8 6 6 6 8 7 7 7 5 6 7 5 6 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

06

/20

05

05

/20

06

09

/20

06

12

/20

06

06

/20

07

01

/20

08

08

/20

08

01

/20

09

05

/20

09

01

/20

10

09

/20

10

08

/20

11

10

/20

11

03

/20

12

10

/20

12

03

/20

13

10

/20

13

03

/20

14

11

/20

14

03

/20

15

10

/20

15

Certainly/rather necessary Completely/rather unnecessary

5

14

14

14

15

13

11

12

11

46

69

62

66

63

66

66

62

61

45

15

22

18

20

20

19

23

25

4

2

2

1

2

2

4

3

3

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Yes, certainly Yes, but with appropriate load No Don't know



6.1.2 Evasion of conscript service

Bearing in mind the favouring attitudes of the population towards conscript service described above, it

is fully anticipated that the majority of the population in Estonia disapproved of the evasion of

conscript service—25% condemn such behaviour and 41% consider it negative (Figure 36). 26% of

respondents have an understanding attitude towards the evasion of conscript service, however, less

than 1% of the respondents approve of this.

The evasion of conscript service finds disapproval with 70% of the Estonian-speaking respondents and

with 56% of the respondents who are speakers of other languages. Compared to younger respondents,

the evasion of conscript service is condemned more by senior respondents—more than 40% of people

under the age of 30 express understanding in this matter.

Figure 36. Attitude towards the evasion of conscript service (%; N = all respondents)

Similarly to expressing the necessity of conscript service, there have been no major changes in the

assessments of the question regarding the evasion of conscript service over the years (Figure 37).

Figure 37. Attitude towards evading conscript service; 2009–2015 comparison (%; N = all

respondents)

38

26

26

17

13

13

22

26

25

42

42

45

41

35

36

34

44

41

6

5

7

12

7

8

13

5

7

14

26

22

29

43

43

29

25

26

1

1

2

2

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

60-74 a

50-59 a

40-49 a

30-39 a

20-29 a

15-19 a

AGE

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE

TOTAL

You condemn it You have a negative attitude Don't know You understand it You approve it

25

25

23

24

27

28

24

25

25

26

23

26

25

40

41

41

39

41

44

41

47

44

45

44

42

41

6

6

5

6

5

3

4

2

3

3

5

6

7

27

27

30

31

26

25

30

25

27

25

27

25

26

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2009/01

2009/05

2010/01

2011/08

2011/10

2012/03

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

You condemn it You have a negative attitude Don't know You understand it You approve it



6.1.3. Conscript service for women

The opportunity for women to undergo conscript service voluntarily has been gaining

increasingly more understanding in the society—in March as well as in October, more than a half of

the respondents thought it certainly necessary or rather necessary.

Estonians and younger respondents have a more contemporary attitude towards the questions of

gender equality compared to the Russian-speaking and older respondents. 60% of Estonians think it is

necessary for women to have the opportunity of undergoing conscript service, whereas only 33% of the

Russian-speaking respondents agree. More than a half of the respondents who are more than 50 years

of age do not see it is necessary for women to undergo voluntary conscript service (Figure 38).

Figure 38. Attitude towards the necessity of conscript service for women

(%; N = all respondents)

The respondents who considered conscript service for women certainly or rather necessary were asked

about in which form the conscript service should take place. The respondents had to choose from the

three options assessed in previous surveys by all respondents: compulsory conscript service, conscript

service under the same conditions as applied to young men and conscript service through a separate

programme. The majority of the respondents think that women should undergo conscript

service through a separate programme (Figure 39).

7

9

18

21

27

17

9

18

11

16

15

31

36

40

34

40

49

24

42

31

36

36

7

4

2

4

5

11

7

4

6

5

6

30

33

29

30

22

14

35

25

31

25

28

25

18

11

11

6

9

25

11

21

18

15

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

60+ a

50-59 a

40-49 a

30-39 a

20-29 a

15-19 a

AGE (2015/10)

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

Certainly necessary Rather necessary Don't know Rather unnecessary Completely unnecessary



Figure 39. Which form should conscript service for women take?

(%; N = all respondents who considered conscript service for women necessary)

2

1

1

2

3

5

5

1

2

1

2

39

46

38

40

48

38

35

44

34

35

42

47

46

56

53

48

55

49

50

51

57

50

12

7

5

5

1

2

11

5

13

7

6

60-74 a

50-59 a

40-49 a

30-39 a

20-29 a

15-19 a

AGE (2015/10)

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

compulsory same conditions as men separate programme don't know



6.1 Attitudes towards the professional defence forces

Despite the fact that more than 90% of respondents find conscript service necessary, the topic of

making the transition to a professional army is sometimes raised in political debates. Respondents were

asked to tell whether they think Estonia should waive compulsory conscription service and maintain a

professional army only, or maintain the current system in which the professional army is combined with

a reserve force consisting of persons having undergone conscript service. It became evident that 82%

of the population would prefer maintaining the current system, with the reserve forces

included (Figure 40). Switching to a fully professional army and waiving compulsory conscript service

is favoured by 11% of the population. This viewpoint has been quite stable over the years.

Figure 40. Options preferred for the development of Estonia’s defence concept; 2006–2015


* In surveys conducted in 2011, another wording of the question was used, with the reply options: “Estonia should maintain the general obligation for military service based on conscription” and “Estonia should switch to a professional army”.

6.2 Attitude towards the comprehensive approach to national

defence

Starting from spring 2014, the survey includes a question about the strategy of Estonian national

defence according to which national defence is no longer only the task of the Defence Forces and

Defence League but the joint task of most state authorities and the entire society. 76% of

respondents (84% of Estonians) are of the opinion that the comprehensive approach is certainly

or probably suitable for Estonia (Figure 41). The contrary opinion was shared by less than one tenth

of the respondents.

Figure 41. National defence is not only the task of the Defence Forces but the task of most state authorities and the whole society. Is such a comprehensive approach to national defence suitable for Estonia? (%; N = all respondents)

63

77 7871

77 7583 81

7263

79 80 81 78 83 84 82 82

32

19 19 2316 19

12 1422 25

17 14 15 17 13 11 13 11

0

20

40

60

80

100

05/2

006

09/2

006

12/2

006

06/2

007

01/2

008

08/2

008

01/2

010

09/2

010

08/2

011*

10/2

011*

03/2

012

10/2

012

03/2

013

10/2

013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015

Maintain the current system in which the professional army is combined with a reserve force consisting of persons having undergone consript service

Waive the obligation for military service based on conscription and maintain a professional army only

19

39

33

28

34

33

39

45

45

44

44

43

29

10

8

18

13

15

9

5

10

7

8

7

4

1

2

3

1

2

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

03/2014

11/2014

03/2015

10/2015




6.3 Tasks of the Defence League

The Defence League has a very important role in the national defence strategy. The respondents were

asked to pick the three most important tasks of the Defence League from a list provided to them.

The results were fixed in sequence, i.e., the most important reason first, followed by the second and

the third.

The Defence League’s most important task is considered to be creating capabilities for the military

defence of the state—this task is listed as first by 35% of the respondents. However,

participation in rescue operations in the event of emergencies and disasters holds the first

place in the overall summary of the three tasks (52%). Raising both defence willingness and

readiness among the population (17%) is the second most popular first choice, and it occupies the

third position in the overall summary of the three tasks with 42% (Figure 42).

The other important tasks besides the three abovementioned ones are preparing for civil defence in

emergency situations (40%), participating in national security crisis management (35%) and organising

the military education of the youth (30%).

Figure 42. Main tasks of the Defence League (%; N = all respondents)

There are several differences between the opinions of the Estonian-speaking and Russian-speaking

population. According to the Estonian-speaking population, the main tasks of the Defence League are

creating capabilities for the military defence of the state (43% place it first; non-Estonians 17%) and

raising the defence willingness and readiness of the population (17% name it first; 49% place it among

the three most important tasks—among Russian-speaking respondents, the respective numbers are 9%

and 24%). However, the opinion that the main task of the Defence League is participation in rescue

operations in the event of emergencies and disasters (25% name it first and 66% of the Russian-

speaking respondents place it among the three most important tasks; the respective figures for

Estonian respondents are 7% and 44%) along with the organised protection of civilians in emergency

situations (10% of Russian-speaking respondents name it first and 50% consider it to be among the

three most important tasks; the respective indicators for Estonians are 8% and 38%) (Figure 43)

strongly dominates among the Russian-speaking population.

4

5

5

7

8

15

13

35

6

9

10

15

11

18

19

9

2

8

15

13

22

9

20

6

12

22

30

35

40

42

52

50

Participation in military missions outside Estonia

Creation of broad support for the defence forces in the civil society

Organisation of the military education of the youth

Participation in national crisis management

Organised preparation for protecting the civilian population in emergaency situations

Raising both the defence willingness and readiness among the population

Participation in rescue operations in the event of emergencies and disasters

Establishment of capabilities for the military defence of the state

First Second Third TOTAL



Figure 43. The three main tasks of the Defence League by language of communication (%; N = all respondents)

13

24

28

28

50

24

66

31

10

22

30

38

38

49

45

59

12

22

30

35

40

42

52

50

Participation in military missions outside Estonia

Creation of broad support for the defence forces in the civil society

Organisation of the military education of the youth

Participation in national crisis management

Organised preparation for protecting the civilian population in emergaency situations

Raising both the defence willingness and readiness among the population

Participation in rescue operations in the event of emergencies and disasters

Establishment of capabilities for the military defence of the state

TOTAL Estonian Russian



6.4 Opinions on joining the Defence League

5% of the respondents (7 per cent of Estonians) participate in the activities of the Defence League

themselves, 25% (33 per cent of Estonians) are connected to the Defence League through a family

member or friend. The number of Russian-speaking respondents connected to the Defence League is

marginal—only 8% have a friend or family member who is connected to the Defence League.

The respondents who were not the members of the Defence League or related organisations were

asked for their opinion on joining the Defence League.

5% of the respondents would certainly join the Defence League or Naiskodukaitse (Women’s

Voluntary Defence Organisation), and 18% would probably join (Figure 44). The Defence

League should certainly rejoice in the fact that the willingness to join is higher among the younger

respondents.

Figure 44. Willingness to join the Defence league or Naiskodukaitse (%; N = those who are not

yet members of the Defence League or related organisations)

4

4

2

5

4

19

3

7

2

6

5

5

5

8

14

19

25

24

34

14

22

10

21

19

19

18

11

13

22

16

19

14

13

19

18

15

12

12

15

17

30

35

28

37

24

29

26

18

32

26

28

28

60

39

22

26

16

9

41

26

52

26

38

36

34

60+

50-59

40-49

30-39

20-29

15-19

AGE (10/2015)

Female

Male

GENDER (10/2015)

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE(10/2015)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

will certainly join will probably join don't know probably will not join certainly will not join



7 NATO

The seventh, NATO-related chapter provides an overview of the population’s attitude towards Estonia’s

membership in NATO, their views on the role of NATO in providing security to Estonia and the ways in

which the steps NATO has taken to ensure Estonian security in the world’s new security situation are

assessed.

7.1 Attitude towards membership in NATO

In October 2015, the Estonian membership in NATO was favoured by 72% of the population,

with 40% being certainly in favour of the membership and 32% being rather in favour. 19% of Estonian

residents are against NATO membership; 9% of the population have no view in this matter (Figure 45).

Figure 45. Attitudes towards joining NATO / membership in NATO, comparison of 2001–

2015; (%; N = all respondents)

While 91% of the Estonian-speaking respondents are in favour of NATO membership, it is favoured only

by 31% of the Russian-speaking population, which is three times less. Thus, the attitudes towards

NATO have not changed compared to the spring survey. The Russian-speaking respondents’ support of

the membership in NATO was on the same level already in October 2001. Back then, the proportion of

Estonians in favour of NATO was 66 per cent. While the number of Estonians in favour of NATO has

grown 50 per cent, it must be admitted that during this time, the society has failed to make NATO more

acceptable for Russian-speaking Estonians. 48% of the Russian-speaking respondents are against

Estonia belonging to NATO, 20% do not have a specific opinion in this matter or do not wish to disclose

it (Figure 46).

Figure 46. Proportion of the proponents of joining NATO / membership in NATO; comparison of the Estonian-speaking and foreign-speaking population 2000–2015 (% of those certainly and rather in favour of the aforementioned; N = all respondents)

48 4954 53

5854

6369 66 69

74 72 7478

73 74 76 7571 73 75 73 71

80 78 7671

75 7279 76 79

75 72 72

32 3126 25 22

3228

23 2621

16 18 1814

18 19 17 17 17 15 17 18 2013 13 14

19 20 1915 17 17 18 21 19

0

20

40

60

80

100

02/2

001

06/2

001

10/2

001

03/2

002

06/2

002

10/2

002

02/2

003

06/2

003

10/2

003

02/2

004

06/2

004

10/2

004

03/2

005

06/2

005

11/2

005

05/2

006

09/2

006

12/2

006

06/2

007

01/2

008

08/2

008

01/2

009

05/2

009

01/2

010

09/2

010

08/2

011

10/2

011

03/2

012

10/2

012

03/2

013

10/2

013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015

Certainly/rather in favour Certainly/rather against it

57 54 5663 61

66 6569

6573 76

81 8387 86 88 89

84 87 86 88 89 90 89 90 8993

8983

8793

86 89 8894 93 91 91

25

35

2420 20

3127 29

3339

52

3338

44 4642

51 4843

5144

33 37 3935

31

50 4844

34 3440

5247 44

3731 31

0

20

40

60

80

100

01/2

000

05/2

000

10/2

000

02/2

001

06/2

001

10/2

001

03/2

002

06/2

002

10/2

002

02/2

003

06/2

003

10/2

003

02/2

004

06/2

004

10/2

004

03/2

005

06/2

005

11/2

005

06/2

006

09/2

006

12/2

006

06/2

007

01/2

008

08/2

008

01/2

009

05/2

009

01/2

010

09/2

010

08/2

011

10/2

011

03/2

012

10/2

012

03/2

013

10/2

013

03/2

014

11/2

014

03/2

015

10/2

015




7.1 NATO’s assistance in the event of a potential threat

The majority of the population considers NATO Estonia’s main security guarantee. Nevertheless, in the

past years, the general public has for several times brought up the question of whether NATO’s Article

5 really is going to be invoked in case of a real military threat. Over the years, people have become

increasingly more certain that NATO will interfere in the event of Estonia facing a military threat. An

increase in the actual presence of allied forces in Estonia has definitely contributed to people’s belief in

NATO.

45 per cent of the respondents find that NATO would provide direct military assistance in the

event of an impending threat to Estonia, 15% believe that NATO would limit its aid only to political

and diplomatic support. 19% think that membership in NATO would be able to prevent a military

conflict completely and only 10% believe that there is no hope for help from NATO. (Figure 47)

The Estonian-speaking respondents’ trust in NATO’s support is considerably higher than that of the

speakers of other languages, which very likely originates from the attitude towards the membership in

the alliance. While 57% of Estonians believe in NATO’s military support, the same belief is shared by

only 19% of the Russian-speaking population. As much as 24 per cent of Russian-speaking respondents

find that Estonia has no hope for help from NATO.

The fact that people have less faith in NATO’s military support compared to the last two surveys

indicates that the presence of NATO allies has not been as strongly visible for the general public as it

was when the allies had just arrived.

Figure 47. Role of NATO in ensuring Estonia’s security if Estonia is exposed to military threat (%; N = all respondents)

19

57

38

42

39

45

44

43

51

48

45

22

12

21

19

22

18

23

18

13

15

15

24

4

9

11

11

9

10

11

10

8

10

14

22

20

23

20

21

19

24

17

18

19

21

5

12

5

7

6

5

4

9

11

11

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2011/10

2012/03

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

provide direct military assistance limit to political and diplomatic support no hope of help from NATO

would prevent a military conflict Don't know



7.2 Assessments on the actions of NATO

Since November 2014 we have also studied the attitude of the Estonian population towards actions

already taken by NATO to ensure better security for Estonia.

The respondents were asked whether NATO has taken sufficient measures in today’s security situation

(Figure 48) and how the presence of NATO allied forces in Estonia is perceived (Figure 49).

Figure 48. Has NATO taken sufficient measures to ensure the security of Estonia? (%; N = all respondents)

The assessments given to steps taken by NATO for ensuring security in Estonia are predominantly

positive, 69% of the surveyed, including 81% of Estonians, consider these completely sufficient

or generally sufficient. NATO’s activities are seen as sufficient by 42% of the Russian-speaking

respondents.

However, Russian-speaking respondents are predominantly negative about the presence of

NATO allied forces in Estonia, whereas 90% of Estonians are in favour of it.

Figure 49. What is your attitude towards the presence of NATO allied forces in Estonia?

(%; N = all respondents)

15

22

16

21

20

27

59

53

49

49

37

11

16

18

19

14

7

11

9

9

7

1

4

3

3

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

completely sufficient sufficient in general don't know

rather not sufficient completely not sufficient

5

46

32

35

33

19

42

38

33

35

14

5

6

7

7

29

5

15

14

13

33

2

9

11

12

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

certainly in favour rather in favour don't know rather against certainly against



8 International military operations

The eighth chapter deals with the attitudes towards participation in international military operations:

how necessary Estonia’s participation is in such operations according to the population, what the

reasons for Estonia to participate are and what the respondents’ attitudes towards the Estonian Defence

Forces’ operations as part of NATO, European Union and UN units are.

8.1 Attitude towards participation in international operations

62% of the population of Estonia believe that the Estonian Defence Forces units should—in

accordance with their capabilities—participate in international military operations; 19% of

respondents feel that it should be certainly done (Figure 50). 30% of the Estonian population see no

need for participation in international operations.

Figure 50. Should Estonian units participate in international military operations? (%; N = all respondents)

There is a significant difference between the Estonian and Russian-speaking respondents’ attitudes

towards international military operations. Estonians’ support towards participation in missions has

remained at the same level it was in March (72 per cent), the Russian-speaking respondents’ support

has risen from 32 per cent to 39, which is still less than a year ago (in November 2014 their support

was at 43 per cent). 48% of Russian-speaking respondents are against participation in international

military operations.

8

24

13

17

10

16

22

14

19

12

11

14

12

12

15

17

19

19

31

48

37

36

39

42

37

37

36

40

46

44

52

46

45

47

41

43

13

6

7

8

6

7

5

7

6

7

3

3

3

3

4

9

7

8

20

14

25

21

23

18

21

25

20

25

24

23

21

23

23

15

18

16

28

8

19

18

22

16

14

17

18

16

15

16

13

15

13

12

15

14

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2008/01

2008/08

2009/01

2009/05

2010/01

2010/09

2011/08

2011/10

2012/03

2012/10

2013/03

2013/10

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

yes, certainly probably yes don't know probably not certainly not



8.2 Arguments for participation in international operations

Respondents were asked to select the three most important reasons why Estonia should participate in

international military operations from a list provided to them. The results were fixed in sequence, i.e.,

the most important reason first, followed by the second and the third.

Two of the most important reasons were almost equally highlighted: 29 per cent of the respondents

consider participation in international operations the most important because it ensures NATO’s

assistance in the event of a potential threat to Estonia; 28 per cent think it is important because

it gives our soldiers necessary real combat experience. Of all the three most important reasons,

our soldiers receiving combat experience remains the most significant argument if the three most

important reasons are summarised (Figure 51).

Other arguments for participating in international operations highlighted by the respondents include

contributing to world peace (one of the three most important reasons according to 33%) and taking the

opportunity of having one’s say in world politics (33%), protecting people in crisis areas (30%) and

preventing the spread of conflicts into Estonia (28%).

Figure 51. The most important reasons why Estonia should participate in international military operations (%; N = all respondents)

Similarly to the significant differences in the attitudes of Estonians and Russian-speaking respondents

towards the membership in NATO, the argument that participation in military operations ensures

NATO’s assistance in case of a military conflict remains irrelevant for the Russian-speaking

respondents. While 38% of Estonians name it as the first reason with 67% considering it among the

three most important arguments, the respective indicators for Russian-speaking respondents are only

10% and 20%.

30% of Estonians name combat experience as the first reason and 69% place it among the three most

important reasons, whereas, respectively, only 18% and 46% of Russian-speaking respondents feel the

same.

3

1

2

4

4

7

4

29

28

3

6

12

10

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10

16

27

5

8

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19

9

8

3

18

9

16

28

30

33

33

54

63

Do not know

Nothing can justify participation

Helps to spread democratic values in the world

Participation in foreign missions is the responsibility of every democratic country

Helps to prevent the spread of conflicts into Estonia

Protects people in crisis regions

Contributes to ensuring peace in the world

Gives Estonia an opportunity to have say in world politics

Ensures NATO's assistance in the event of potential threats to Estonia

Gives our soldiers necessary real combat experience

First Second Third TOTAL



However, compared to Estonians, Russian-speaking respondents place more value on so-called

humanitarian arguments: contributing to world peace, protecting people in crisis areas, spreading

democratic values. Russian-speaking respondents also support the view that participation in military

operations is part of a democratic state’s duties to a greater extent than Estonians do (Figure 52).

33% of Russian-speaking respondents believe that none of the named arguments justify participation in

foreign military operations.

Figure 52. The most important reasons why Estonia should participate in international

military operations (%; N = all respondents)

9

16

29

30

33

32

54

63

14

24

33

32

38

32

20

46

7

14

28

29

31

32

67

69

0 20 40 60 80

Helps to spread democratic values in the world

Participation in foreign missions is the responsibility of every democratic country

Helps to prevent the spread of conflicts into Estonia

Protects people in crisis regions

Contributes to ensuring peace in the world

Gives Estonia an opportunity to have say in world politics

Ensures NATO's assistance in the event of potential threats to Estonia

Gives our soldiers necessary real combat experience

Estonian Russian TOTAL



8.3 Attitudes towards participation in NATO, EU and UN operations

Since Estonian servicemen have participated in military operations as part of NATO, EU and UN units,

we were curious of whether there is a difference in the public’s attitudes towards operations conducted

under the auspices of different organisations.

There are no great differences in general assessments, yet Russian-speaking respondents clearly favour

participation in UN operations the most, this is followed by European Union operations with NATO

placed last (Figure 53).

Figure 53. Attitudes towards the units of Estonian Defence Forces participating in international operations (%; N = all respondents)

16

25

22

9

23

18

5

27

21

35

49

45

34

50

45

24

52

43

16

10

11

16

9

12

17

6

9

11

10

11

16

11

13

21

8

12

12

6

11

25

7

12

33

7

15

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Others

Estonians

ALL

UN operations

Others

Estonians

ALL

EU operations

Others

Estonians

ALL

NATO operations

certainly in favour rather in favour don't know rather against certainly against



9 Attitudes towards professional servicemen

Attitudes towards professional servicemen were last studied in the survey conducted in March 2014 and

in the four surveys before that. This topic does not need to be explored in every survey because, as the

current results show, the population’s attitudes are continuously positive.

68% of the respondents, including as many as three fourths of Estonians, have a very positive or

generally positive attitude towards active servicemen (Figure 54).

Figure 54. Attitudes towards professional servicemen (%; N = all respondents)

Once again, we asked the public’s opinion about the reasons of becoming a professional serviceman.

Interest in the profession of a serviceman and patriotism are considered to be the main motives

for becoming a professional serviceman. Factors related to self-improvement are also considered

important, e.g.: becoming a serviceman is seen as an opportunity to receive training and maintain

good physical form. Good salary holds the fourth place in the ranking of importance. The lack of

other jobs and long holidays are regarded less important (Figure 55).

The average ratings of importance given on a scale of 1 to 5 are presented in table 5.

Table 5 – Motives for becoming a serviceman

(average ratings on a scale of 1 to 5)

March 2014 October 2015

Interest in the profession of a serviceman 4.26 4.35

Opportunity to earn a good salary 4.03 4.12

Patriotism, desire to defend your country 3.98 4.12

Opportunity to receive training at an international level

4.04 4.07

Desire to contribute to world peace 3.60 3.66

Opportunity to maintain good physical form 3.55 3.61

Desire for variety in life, spirit of adventure 3.19 3.55

Lack of other jobs 3.09 3.35

Long holidays 3.00 3.01

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18

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18

14

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20

12

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42

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20

32

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2

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1

1

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2

1

4

1

1

1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2015/10

2014/03

2013/10

2013/03

2012/10

2012/03

LANGUAGE (2015/10)

Estonian

Other

Very good Rather good Neither good nor bad, neutral Don't know Rather bad Very bad



Figure 55. Motives for becoming a professional serviceman (%; N = all respondents)

55

54

43

39

39

37

42

41

28

26

24

25

24

14

26

18

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Interest in the profession of a serviceman

2015/10

2014/03

Patriotism, desire to defend your country

2015/10

2014/03

Opportunity to receive training at an international level

2015/10

2014/03

Opportunity to earn a good salary

2015/10

2014/03

Opportunity to maintain good physical form

2015/10

2014/03

Desire to contribute to world peace

2015/10

2014/03

Desire for variety in life, spirit of adventure

2015/10

2014/03

Lack of other jobs

2015/10

2014/03

Long holidays

2015/10

2014/03

5 - certainly yes 4 3 2 1 - certainly not Don't know



10 Veteran policy

In the last four surveys, respondents were also asked whether they associate the word “veteran”

primarily with World War II, the Estonian War of Independence, or the Estonian Defence Forces’

operations in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq.

The responses show that more than a half of the population associates the word “veteran” primarily

with World War II (Figure 56). As many as 83 per cent of the Russian-speaking respondents

associate veterans with World War II (39% of Estonians).

22% of Estonians associate the word “veteran” with the Estonian War of Independence (even though

none of those veterans are alive now) and the proportion of those who associate the world

“veteran” with servicemen who have participated in the Estonian Defence Forces’ operations

shows a slight increase (from 16 per cent in March to 22 per cent in October). Only six per cent of

the Russian-speaking respondents consider the servicemen who have participated in those operations

veterans.

Those 4% of respondents who claimed that the word “veteran” is associated with some other option

most often noted that the word “veteran” should refer to the participants of all wars.

Figure 56. What are the primary associations with the word "veteran", 2014–2015


The Veterans’ Day held on 23 April (St. George’s Day) each year is considered certainly necessary

or rather necessary by the majority of the respondents (71 per cent)—no matter what they

consider the meaning of the word “veteran” to be (Figure 57).

The Russian-speaking population is not very aware of such a day, yet the number of those aware of it is

growing: in March, as many as 43 per cent did not know anything about the day or could not say

anything about it, whereas now the proportion of these respondents was 32 per cent. For the first time,

the proportion of Russian-speaking respondents who considered the celebration of this day necessary

reached over 50 per cent.

83

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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2014/03

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

World War II Estonian War of Independence Estonian Defence Forces' missions Other Don't know



Figure 57. Attitude towards the celebration of Veterans’ Day (%; N = all respondents)

24

35

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39

32

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Other

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LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2014/11

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2015/10

certainly necessary rather necessary don't know rather unnecessary completely unnecessary



11 Information related to national defence

The final chapter includes the results of two national defence information related questions: the need

for national defence instruction in schools and the reading of the supplement Riigikaitse of the daily

Postimees.

11.1 National defence instruction in schools

The attitude towards national defence instruction in schools has been consistently positive among the

Estonian population—about four fifths of the respondents have found it certainly necessary or probably

necessary starting from the year 2008.

Last autumn we made slight changes to the wording of the question which is now as follows: “Should

it be possible to get national defence instruction in all educational institutions providing

secondary education?”

The majority of the respondents support national defence instruction in schools, even though

the number of supporters is slightly smaller than in spring and a year ago. In autumn 2014 and March

2015, 87 per cent of the respondents considered it certainly necessary or probably necessary, whereas

this time the percentage was 79 (Figure 58). Estonians and Russian-speaking respondents equally

support national defence instruction.

Figure 58. Attitude towards the necessity of national defence instruction in all educational

institutions providing secondary education (%; N = all respondents)

11.2 Supplement Riigikaitse of the daily Postimees

In addition to the general mapping of media consumption, the questionnaire included a direct question

regarding an information source related to national defence. While up to March 2014, the survey

studied the readership of the supplement Riigikaitse.EE of the weekly Eesti Ekspress, starting from

November 2014, the question is aimed towards the readership of the supplement Riigikaitse of the daily

Postimees.

On the basis of the survey results, it can be claimed that the people interested in Riigikaitse.EE have

also found the supplement Riigikaitse of the daily Postimees.

While in 2012–2013 the supplement Riigikaitse.EE of the weekly Eesti Ekspress (published quarterly)

was read by 10–14% of the population (2–3% read it in most cases and 8–11% at times), then by

October 2015, 18 per cent of the respondents had read the supplement Riigikaitse of the daily

Postimees, 5 per cent of whom read it in most cases and 13 per cent read it once or a couple

of times.

35

41

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40

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4

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10




There has not been an increase in the readership of Riigikaitse compared to the March survey.

As it is an Estonian-language edition, it was rather expected that there were more readers among the

Estonian respondents compared to the non-Estonians (23% and 7% respectively). Furthermore, there

are more readers among people with higher education (25%) and men (22%).

Figure 59. Reading the supplement Riigikaitse of the daily Postimees (%; N = all respondents)

4

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5

12

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90

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81

79

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3

2

1

3

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

female

male

GENDER (10/2015)

higher

secondary …

primary or basic

EDUCATION (10/2015)

Other

Estonian

LANGUAGE (10/2015)

2014/11

2015/03

2015/10

yes, mostly a few times no don't know



12 Media consumption

The questionnaire included a large section on media consumption with the main purpose of observing

the relationship between the population’s attitude on national defence and their contact with different

media channels. This task requires secondary data analysis, which is not the objective of the current

report.

The following presents the survey results describing the respondents’ engagement with different

television channels and radio stations as well as visits to internet portals in the form of simple

frequency distributions.

Figure 60. Visits to news portals and online newspapers (%; N = all respondents)

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31

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58

77

89

50

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

delfi.ee; rus.delfi

ALL

Estonians

Other

uudised.err.ee; novosti.err.ee

ALL

Estonians

Other

postimees.ee; rus.postimees

ALL

Estonians

Other

other Estonian internet portals

ALL

Estonians

Other

Russian internet portals

ALL

Estonians

Other

5-7 days per week 3-4 days 2 days or less not at all



Figure 61. Engagement with television channels and radio stations (%; N = all respondents)

42

58

6

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22

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50

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16

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9

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11

74

71

80

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59

79

15

57

77

13

34

19

67

70

90

26

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

ETV broadcast in Estonian

ALL

Estonians

Other

ETV broadcast in Russian

ALL

Estonians

Other

Kanal 2

ALL

Estonians

Other

TV3

ALL

Estonians

Other

3+

ALL

Estonians

Other

Pervõi Baltiiski Kanal

ALL

Estonians

Other

Russian TV-channels

ALL

Estonians

Other

Radio broadcast in Estonian

ALL

Estonians

Other

Estonian radio broadcast in Russian

ALL

Estonians

Other

5-7 days per week 3-4 days 2 days or less not at all



ANNEXES

1 Questionnaire

2 Summary tables on responses

3 Frequency tables with the responses of Estonians

4 Frequency tables with the responses of non-Estonians

PUBLIC OPINION AND NATIONAL DEFENCE - … opinion and national defence / October 2015 Estonian...

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