Psychometric Profiling of Driver Behaviour Is it any use? Professor Craig Jackson Prof of...
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Transcript of Psychometric Profiling of Driver Behaviour Is it any use? Professor Craig Jackson Prof of...
Psychometric Profiling of Psychometric Profiling of Driver BehaviourDriver Behaviour
Is it any use?Is it any use?
Professor Craig JacksonProfessor Craig Jackson
Prof of Occupational Health PsychologyHead of Psychology
BCU
Research DirectorHealth Research Consultants
OutlineOutline
• History of behavioural profilingHistory of behavioural profiling
• Relative usefulnessRelative usefulness
• Applicability to driver behaviourApplicability to driver behaviour
• Development of a Psychometric ToolDevelopment of a Psychometric Tool
• Behavioural Profiling - observations of Drive-Thrus and unsafe drivingBehavioural Profiling - observations of Drive-Thrus and unsafe driving
• Preliminary Psychometric Profiling ResultsPreliminary Psychometric Profiling Results
• ConclusionsConclusions
Behavioural ProfilingBehavioural Profiling
Offender Profiling generally refers to:Offender Profiling generally refers to:
1. 1. process of using. . . process of using. . .
2. 2. . . .all available information . . . . . .all available information . . .
3. 3. . . . about a crime . . . . . . about a crime . . .
4. 4. . . . a crime scene . . . . . . a crime scene . . .
5. 5. . . . and a victim . . . . . . and a victim . . .
6. 6. . . . to compose a profile of. . . . . . to compose a profile of. . .
7. 7. . . .the (as yet) unknown perpetrator. . .the (as yet) unknown perpetrator
History of Offender ProfilingHistory of Offender Profiling
Origins difficult to pin downOrigins difficult to pin down
Spectrum of offending – from petty through to majorSpectrum of offending – from petty through to major
Established 1970s Established 1970s
FBI’s Behavioural Support Unit (now the Investigative Support Unit)FBI’s Behavioural Support Unit (now the Investigative Support Unit)
““Behavioural Profiles” developed by James Brussel (1956) Behavioural Profiles” developed by James Brussel (1956) in hunt for Con Edison bomber in New Yorkin hunt for Con Edison bomber in New York
Robert Brittain asked by CID to provide behavioural profile of “Bible John” Robert Brittain asked by CID to provide behavioural profile of “Bible John” killer in Glasgow in late 1960skiller in Glasgow in late 1960s
Mechanics of Behavioural ProfilingMechanics of Behavioural Profiling
FBI used extensive interviews with 36 convicted serial killers FBI used extensive interviews with 36 convicted serial killers
Belief that personality of offender could be gleaned from 5 areas:Belief that personality of offender could be gleaned from 5 areas:
1. Crime scene1. Crime scene2. Nature of crimes2. Nature of crimes3. Forensic evidence3. Forensic evidence4. Medical examination of victim4. Medical examination of victim5. Victim characteristics5. Victim characteristics
Useful for deliberate offendingUseful for deliberate offending
How useful for accidents and non-intentional How useful for accidents and non-intentional offences in driving?offences in driving? 1,2,3 and possibly 5 could be of use1,2,3 and possibly 5 could be of use
A note about “offender types”A note about “offender types”
Offender types traditionally split into 2 groups:Offender types traditionally split into 2 groups:
Organised vs DisorganisedOrganised vs Disorganised
Can this be applied to drivers?Can this be applied to drivers?
Personality types:Personality types:
Extravert vs IntrovertExtravert vs Introvert
Sanguine vs Phlegmatic Sanguine vs Phlegmatic
Is Behavioural Profiling Useful?Is Behavioural Profiling Useful?
Limited (if any) successLimited (if any) success
Two criticisms of profiling behaviourTwo criticisms of profiling behaviour
1) Often based on small data numbers / limited samples1) Often based on small data numbers / limited samples
2) Profiles are too vague to be successful / specific2) Profiles are too vague to be successful / specific
The Best Predictor of Future Behaviour is Past BehaviourThe Best Predictor of Future Behaviour is Past Behaviour
Recidivism of Driving ActivityRecidivism of Driving Activity
Example of Profiling and the BTK caseExample of Profiling and the BTK case
Serial killer in Kansas active from 1974 to 2005Serial killer in Kansas active from 1974 to 2005
Murdered 10 people from 1974 – 1991 (caught in 2005)Murdered 10 people from 1974 – 1991 (caught in 2005)
Variety of profiles based on crime scene analysis were summarised as:Variety of profiles based on crime scene analysis were summarised as:
Example of Profiling and the BTK caseExample of Profiling and the BTK case
““Look for an American male with a possible connection to the military. Look for an American male with a possible connection to the military. His IQ will be above 105. He will like to masturbate, and will be aloof and His IQ will be above 105. He will like to masturbate, and will be aloof and selfish in bed. He will drive a decent car. He will be a ‘now’ person. He selfish in bed. He will drive a decent car. He will be a ‘now’ person. He won’t be comfortable with women. But he may have women friends. He won’t be comfortable with women. But he may have women friends. He will be a lone wolf. But he will be able to function in social settings…he will be a lone wolf. But he will be able to function in social settings…he will be either, never married, divorced or married, and if he is married his will be either, never married, divorced or married, and if he is married his wife will be younger or older. He may or may not live in a rental, and wife will be younger or older. He may or may not live in a rental, and might be lower class, upper lower class, lower middle class or middle might be lower class, upper lower class, lower middle class or middle class. And he will be crazy like a fox, as opposed to being mental.”class. And he will be crazy like a fox, as opposed to being mental.”
Gladwell (2007)Gladwell (2007)
Why bother in Profiling unsafe driver Behaviour?Why bother in Profiling unsafe driver Behaviour?
Violent sexual offenders Violent sexual offenders Unsafe driversUnsafe drivers
Rare in populationRare in population Common in populationCommon in population
Covert activityCovert activity Overt activityOvert activity
Rarely occursRarely occurs Commonly occursCommonly occurs
Will always be pursuedWill always be pursued Will often be ignoredWill often be ignored
Severe penalties if caughtSevere penalties if caught Non-severe penaltiesNon-severe penalties
Inconsistent with usual personaInconsistent with usual persona Consistent with usual personaConsistent with usual persona
Culturally vilifiedCulturally vilified Culturally acceptable (some)Culturally acceptable (some)
Easier to measure & profile Unsafe Drivers than Violent Sexual OffendersEasier to measure & profile Unsafe Drivers than Violent Sexual Offenders
Behavioural Profiling and Unsafe DrivingBehavioural Profiling and Unsafe Driving
““Look for a British citizen with an average IQ, although it Look for a British citizen with an average IQ, although it could be substantially higher or lower than average. The could be substantially higher or lower than average. The unsafe driver will be a male or possibly female, who may be unsafe driver will be a male or possibly female, who may be married or un-married, divorced or widowed. He or she may married or un-married, divorced or widowed. He or she may drive a decent car, but it may also be low-end of the market. drive a decent car, but it may also be low-end of the market. The unsafe driver will have a good job, although s/he may be The unsafe driver will have a good job, although s/he may be unemployed or even self-employed… unemployed or even self-employed…
… … they will definitely be driving something with 4 wheels.” they will definitely be driving something with 4 wheels.”
Method Method #1#1 Psychometric Testing of DriversPsychometric Testing of Drivers
Literature review Literature review
Develop pilot surveys (9 versions) measuring variety of factors:Develop pilot surveys (9 versions) measuring variety of factors:e.g. sex, age, mileage, attitudes, personality, risk taking, alertness, e.g. sex, age, mileage, attitudes, personality, risk taking, alertness, health, parental influence, in-car technology, perceived skillshealth, parental influence, in-car technology, perceived skills
Several hundred respondents (non-pro drivers) from varied sampleSeveral hundred respondents (non-pro drivers) from varied sample
Baseline data with Manchester Driver Behaviour questionnaireBaseline data with Manchester Driver Behaviour questionnaire
Find associations with scores on MDBFind associations with scores on MDB
Give weightings to factors associated with good / bad MDB scoresGive weightings to factors associated with good / bad MDB scores
Use traffic light system to suggest need for driver re-trainingUse traffic light system to suggest need for driver re-training
Method Method #2#2 Field ObservationsField Observations
Test principles of behavioural profilingTest principles of behavioural profiling
Can drivers exhibiting unsafe driving behaviours (UDBs) be profiled?Can drivers exhibiting unsafe driving behaviours (UDBs) be profiled?
Several observations in a single fast food chain in UKSeveral observations in a single fast food chain in UKSummertimeSummertimeAll covertAll covertAll without permissionAll without permissionUsed same 2 researchers Used same 2 researchers
Field ObservationsField Observations
Recorded details of all vehicles exiting car park during observations:Recorded details of all vehicles exiting car park during observations:
1. Drive-Thru versus Eat-in customers1. Drive-Thru versus Eat-in customers
2. Vehicle type2. Vehicle type
3. Sex3. Sex
4. Passengers4. Passengers
5. UDBs 5. UDBs eatingeatingdrinkingdrinkingphone usephone useno seatbeltno seatbeltno indicatorsno indicatorspoor traffic entrypoor traffic entry
Remote / Isolated WorkingRemote / Isolated Working
Field operatives Sales DriversField operatives Sales Drivers
Lack of immediate assistance Lack of immediate assistance illnessillness accidents accidents safety safety
Social workersSocial workers JanitorsJanitorsDistrict nursesDistrict nurses DriversDriversFilling stationsFilling stations ShopsShopsHome workersHome workers SecuritySecurityReceptionistsReceptionists TeachersTeachersCleanersCleaners EngineersEngineers
Field Observations - ResultsField Observations - Results
672 vehicles observed672 vehicles observed
402 drive-thru 402 drive-thru 270 eat-in270 eat-in P-P-valuevalue
(59.8%)(59.8%) (40.2%)(40.2%)
EatingEating 23% 23% 0.3% 0.3% 0.000.00DrinkingDrinking 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.000.00Using phoneUsing phone 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.001.00No seatbeltNo seatbelt 11% 11% 7.0% 7.0% 0.080.08No signalsNo signals 71% 71% 65% 65% 0.080.08Entering traffic badlyEntering traffic badly 10.6%10.6% 6.6% 6.6% 0.070.07
Total UDB scoreTotal UDB score 1.25 (±0.7)1.25 (±0.7) 0.82 (±0.6)0.82 (±0.6) 0.000.00
““Unsafe driving” Unsafe driving” 84.8%84.8% 70.7%70.7% 0.000.00““Unsafe driving”* Unsafe driving”* 46.0%46.0% 14.4%14.4% 0.000.00
*ignoring “no signals” misdemeanor *ignoring “no signals” misdemeanor
Field Observations - ResultsField Observations - Results
672 vehicles observed672 vehicles observed
417 Male 417 Male 255 Female255 Female P-valueP-value(62%)(62%) (38%)(38%)
EatingEating 11.9%11.9% 17.2% 17.2% 0.050.05DrinkingDrinking 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 1.001.00Using phoneUsing phone 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 2.3% 0.900.90No seatbeltNo seatbelt 11.7%11.7% 5.4% 5.4% 0.000.00No signalsNo signals 75% 75% 60% 60% 0.000.00Entering traffic badlyEntering traffic badly 9.5% 9.5% 8.2% 8.2% 0.550.55
Total UDB scoreTotal UDB score 1.25 (±0.7)1.25 (±0.7) 0.82 (±0.6)0.82 (±0.6) 0.000.00
““Unsafe driving” Unsafe driving” 83.4%83.4% 72.1%72.1% 0.000.00““Unsafe driving”* Unsafe driving”* 34.2%34.2% 31.7%31.7% 0.500.50
*ignoring “no signals” misdemeanor *ignoring “no signals” misdemeanor
Field Observations ConclusionsField Observations Conclusions
• All Fast food customers drive fairly poorly upon exitingAll Fast food customers drive fairly poorly upon exiting SignallingSignalling Seatbelt use Seatbelt use Entering traffic Entering traffic
• Eating & Drinking significantly worse in Drive-thru customersEating & Drinking significantly worse in Drive-thru customers
• Phone usePhone use• Seatbelt useSeatbelt use• SignallingSignalling• Traffic entryTraffic entry
78% of Cars were Unsafe78% of Cars were Unsafe 87% of Vans were Unsafe87% of Vans were Unsafe
If producing a gross behavioural profile of unsafe drivers If producing a gross behavioural profile of unsafe drivers based on observations of crime scenes (fast food outlets), based on observations of crime scenes (fast food outlets),
we are looking for . . . .we are looking for . . . .
equally poor between Drive-thru / Eat-in customersequally poor between Drive-thru / Eat-in customers
not sig. different between vehicle types not sig. different between vehicle types
Love affair with car - food – convenience is increasingLove affair with car - food – convenience is increasing
CulpritsCulprits
ConclusionConclusion
Behavioural Profiling inaccurate, unreliable & subjectiveBehavioural Profiling inaccurate, unreliable & subjective
Psychometric testing more reliablePsychometric testing more reliable
Psychometric testing takes time, patience, & cost to get it rightPsychometric testing takes time, patience, & cost to get it right
• Cheap to administerCheap to administer• Can be computerizedCan be computerized• Easy to complete / self-completionEasy to complete / self-completion• Simple to scoreSimple to score• ObjectiveObjective• Easily comparable Easily comparable