PSP 1078 Plumpton and PSP 1080 Kororoit - vpa.vic.gov.au€¦ · B 18/2/16 Final Draft Peter...

PSP 1078 Plumpton and PSP 1080 Kororoit

Metropolitan Planning Authority

Technical Report - Update to Transport Modelling Results (Final)

001 | C

7 June 2016

RFQ D/14/2320

Document history and status

Revision Date Description By Review Approved

A 14/9/15 Draft for comment Peter Thompson Andrew Joycey Andrew Joycey

B 18/2/16 Final Draft Peter Thompson Andrew Joycey Andrew Joycey

C 7/6/16 Final (no change from final draft) Peter Thompson Andrew Joycey Andrew Joycey

Distribution of copies

Revision Issue

approved Date issued Issued to Comments

A Andrew Joycey 14/9/15 MPA (Stephanie Harder)

B Andrew Joycey 18/2/16 MPA (Stephanie Harder)

C Andrew Joycey 7/6/16 MPA (Stephanie Harder) No change from Final Draft


PSP 1078 & 1080 Update To Transport Modelling Results (Final).Docx i

PSP 1078 Plumpton and PSP 1080 Kororoit

Project no: IS058300 Document title: Technical Report - Update to Transport Modelling Results (Final) Document No.: 001 Revision: C Date: 7 June 2016 Client name: Metropolitan Planning Authority Client no: RFQ D/14/2320 Project manager: Peter Thompson Author: Peter Thompson File name: I:\SBIF\Projects\IS058300\Deliverables\PSP 1078 & 1080 Update to Transport Modelling

Results (Final).docx

Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Limited ABN 37 001 024 095 Floor 11, 452 Flinders Street Melbourne VIC 3000 PO Box 312, Flinders Lane Melbourne VIC 8009 Australia T +61 3 8668 3000 F +61 3 8668 3001 www.jacobs.com

© Copyright 2016 Jacobs Group (Australia) Pty Limited. The concepts and information contained in this document are the property of Jacobs. Use or copying of this document in whole or in part without the written permission of Jacobs constitutes an infringement of copyright.

Limitation: This report has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of Jacobs’ Client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs and the Client. Jacobs accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this report by any third party.


PSP 1078 & 1080 Update To Transport Modelling Results (Final).Docx ii

Contents 1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Purpose .................................................................................................................................................1 1.2 Background ............................................................................................................................................1 1.3 Scope ....................................................................................................................................................1 2. Network and Land Use Changes .........................................................................................................2 2.1 Revised PSP Road Network ...................................................................................................................2 2.2 Employment Projections .........................................................................................................................2 3. Neale Road Select Link Analysis .........................................................................................................9 4. Updated Model Results ...................................................................................................................... 12

Appendix A. 2046 Ultimate v3 Model Results Appendix B. 2026 Interim v2 Model Results


PSP 1078 & 1080 Update To Transport Modelling Results (Final).Docx iii

Important note about this report

The sole purpose of this report and the associated services performed by Jacobs is to estimate future traffic and public transport travel in the Plumpton and Kororoit Precinct Structure Plan areas in accordance with the scope of services set out in the contract between Jacobs and the Client. That scope of services, as described in this report, was developed with the Client.

In preparing this report, Jacobs has relied upon, and presumed accurate, any information (or confirmation of the absence thereof) provided by the Client and/or from other sources. Except as otherwise stated in the report, Jacobs has not attempted to verify the accuracy or completeness of any such information. If the information is subsequently determined to be false, inaccurate or incomplete then it is possible that our observations and conclusions as expressed in this report may change.

Jacobs derived the data in this report from information sourced from the Client (if any) and/or available in the public domain at the time or times outlined in this report. The passage of time, manifestation of latent conditions or impacts of future events may require further examination of the project and subsequent data analysis, and re-evaluation of the data, findings, observations and conclusions expressed in this report. Jacobs has prepared this report in accordance with the usual care and thoroughness of the consulting profession, for the sole purpose described above and by reference to applicable standards, guidelines, procedures and practices at the date of issue of this report. For the reasons outlined above, however, no other warranty or guarantee, whether expressed or implied, is made as to the data, observations and findings expressed in this report, to the extent permitted by law.

This report should be read in full and no excerpts are to be taken as representative of the findings. No responsibility is accepted by Jacobs for use of any part of this report in any other context.

This report has been prepared on behalf of, and for the exclusive use of, Jacobs’s Client, and is subject to, and issued in accordance with, the provisions of the contract between Jacobs and the Client. Jacobs accepts no liability or responsibility whatsoever for, or in respect of, any use of, or reliance upon, this report by any third party.


PSP 1078 & 1080 Update To Transport Modelling Results (Final).Docx 1

1. Introduction 1.1 Purpose

The purpose of this report is to provide updated transport modelling results associated with the Plumpton and Kororoit Precinct Structure Plans. The need for the updated results arises from recent changes to the proposed road network, along with revised employment projections, within the PSP areas.

1.2 Background

The Metropolitan Planning Authority (MPA) is currently finalising Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs) for Plumpton (PSP 1078) and Kororoit (PSP 1080). These adjacent areas, presently predominantly rural, together contain nearly 2,200 hectares of land as part of the Western Growth Corridor. The areas identified for future urban development could accommodate about 19,000 dwellings and a new major town centre at Plumpton.

In 2012, the MPA commissioned a sub-regional transport model of the Western Growth Corridor which was derived from the state government’s Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM). The Western Growth Corridor model provided a more detailed zoning system and road network in the western suburbs to allow more refined modelling of land use, employment and transport in these PSPs. This initial model was developed for 2046 only. A further modelling study by Jacobs for the nearby Rockbank PSP developed a 2026 model of the Western Growth Corridor.

The focus of the Plumpton and Kororoit study was to refine the 2046 (“ultimate”) model and the 2026 (“interim”) model. The outputs from these models were used to assess the capacity of the proposed road network and to assist in the design of key intersections in the PSPs.

The results of that study were most recently documented in a report prepared by Jacobs in March 2015 and entitled “PSP 1078 Plumpton and PSP 1080 Kororoit – Transport Modelling Report (Revision D)”. Since that time, the MPA has revised the layout of the internal road network, and also revised the employment projections in selected zones within the PSP areas. As a consequence, the MPA have requested that Jacobs re-run the traffic models to reflect these changes, and provide updated modelling results.

We emphasise that this Technical Report should be read in conjunction with the previous transport modelling report, and not as a stand-alone document.

1.3 Scope

To update the previous modelling work, Jacobs were requested by the MPA to:

Re-run the 2026 ‘interim’ and 2046’ultimate’ development scenarios incorporating:

- the PSP road networks as shown in the latest plans; and

- the latest employment projections as advised by the MPA.

Reproduce the standard modelling output graphs and tables (as provided in the previous modelling report) with updated results from the new model runs;

Include a select link analysis of traffic using Neale Road in 2046 to identify any potential rat-running issues; and

Package the new results into a Technical Report (i.e. this report) to be read in conjunction with the previous modelling report.



2. Network and Land Use Changes 2.1 Revised PSP Road Network

The latest Precinct Structure Plan for Plumpton and Kororoit is shown in Figure 2.1 below.

Based upon the revised PSP, Figure 2.2 and Figure 2.3 show the modelled road networks for 2026 and 2046 respectively. These networks follow the same general pattern as previously, in term of capacities, speeds and function, but with the local and collector roads reconfigured to reflect the amended PSP.

The bus routes have also been re-routed to follow the revised local/collector alignments, and these are shown in Figure 2.4 and Figure 2.5 for 2026 and 2046 respectively. No changes to bus headways have been made compared with the previous analysis.

More specifically, the following revisions and minor edits were made to the network and bus routes as per MPA advice:

Removal of the City Vista/Aspire Boulevard Link to the Melton Highway;

Correction to the Beattys Road/Sanctuary Road configuration to the Melton Highway;

New connector road into the Warrensbrook PSP from the Plumpton employment precinct;

Reconfiguration of Saric Court future extension;

Additional signalised intersection at the Town Centre1;

Upgrade of Kennedy Drive to a future connector road;

Re-alignment of Beattys Road;

Modification of bus routes to utilise Sanctuary Road and City Vista/Aspire Boulevard, in accordance with the road re-alignments.

2.2 Employment Projections

The employment projections for 2046 have been revised in the business/industrial area and the Town Centre, namely zones 2604, 3183 (within the Business/Industry areas of the PSP) and zone 3143 (the Town Centre). The revised total employment figures as advised by the MPA2 are shown in the final column of Table 2.1 below.

Table 2.1 : Revised Employment Projections

Zone No. PSP Area 2026 2046

Retail Employment

Total Employment

Retail Employment

Total Employment

2604 Business/Industry 0 2,809 0 5,617

3143 Town Centre 1,862 2,450 3,736 4,900

3183 Industry 0 376 0 752

1 Intersections were not specifically modelled as such, and so this has no impact upon the predicted traffic flows. 2 As advised in an e-mail from the MPA dated 10/7/15.



Note that we have taken 50% of the ultimate (2046) jobs for 2026, as has been assumed in the previous modelling work. Also, we have apportioned the retail jobs in accordance with the proportions in the previous modelling work, that is:

about 76% of total jobs for Zone 3143; and

zero retail jobs for the other two zones.

Note also that the revised PSP has made a number of minor changes to the location of schools. These were not considered significant enough to affect the traffic modelling results, and so the school enrolments by zone have not been updated.

No other changes to demographic data have been made.



Figure 2.1 : Draft Future Urban Structure for Plumpton and Kororoit (2015)



Figure 2.2 : 2026 Updated Modelled Road Network



Figure 2.3 : 2046 Updated Modelled Road Network



Figure 2.4 : 2026 Updated Bus Routes



Figure 2.5 : 2046 Updated Bus Routes



3. Neale Road Select Link Analysis The MPA also requested that a select link analysis of traffic using Neale Road in 2046 be undertaken as part of this modelling update.

The concern is that Neale Road may function as a rat-run for drivers seeking to avoid sections of the Western Highway. The select link flows are shown, by direction and peak period, in Figure 3.1 to Figure 3.4.

For the morning peak hour, the analysis suggests there is no evidence of any significant rat-running along Neale Road, as the vast majority of traffic has either an origin or destination within a ‘legitimate’ catchment for this section of the Road. This is also true for east-bound traffic on Neale Road during the PM peak hour.

The situation is a little more complex for west-bound traffic during the PM peak. In this case, the analysis (see Figure 3.4) shows a greater proportion of traffic extending well beyond the immediately surrounding areas. However, the number of potential ‘rat-runners’ is still small, amounting to perhaps 100-150 vehicles during the period, or around 9-13% of total hourly west-bound traffic on the road. Importantly, this number assumes all the vehicles approaching from the east along the Western Highway or the Western Ring Road do not have origins within the PSP area or otherwise have a ‘legitimate’ reason to use Neale Road. In reality, a proportion of these potential rat-runners will not be rat-runners at all. A detailed analysis of the select-link origin-destination matrices would be required to quantify this, but there still appears to be no evidence of a significant problem with through-traffic on Neale Road.



Figure 3.1 : AM Peak Select Link East-Bound Flows for Neale Road, 2046

Figure 3.2 : AM Peak Select Link West-Bound Flows for Neale Road, 2046



Figure 3.3 : PM Peak Select Link East-Bound Flows for Neale Road, 2046

Figure 3.4 : PM Peak Select Link West-Bound Flows for Neale Road, 2046



4. Updated Model Results The updated model results are set out in Appendix A (for 2046) and Appendix B (for 2026), for the range of traffic and public transport passenger projections reported in previous work.

The revised network was a result of the outcomes produced from the initial transport modelling report, further refinement to the proposed land uses and greater consideration for the staging of future urban development. These minor edits result in improved connectivity and permeability mainly to and from the Town Centre and the Business/Industry Precincts.

The minor revisions to the network analysed in this Update Report result in relatively low impacts on traffic volumes and traffic distributions relative to the previous analysis. The increase in job numbers has had some impact on traffic volumes, mainly around the Town Centre and Business/Industry employment precinct. As a result, higher volumes are expected to be generated from the greater employment numbers, although the overall difference from the previous analysis is relatively low.



Appendix A. 2046 Ultimate v3 Model Results


PSP 1078 & 1080 Update To Transport Modelling Results (Final).Docx A-2



.



2046 Ultimate v3


PSP 1078 & 1080 Update To Transport Modelling Results (Final).Docx B1

Appendix B. 2026 Interim v2 Model Results



2026 Interim v2

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