Psi Can We Handle It
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Transcript of Psi Can We Handle It
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PRECOGNITION WHEN
THE CAUSAL ARROW
POINTS IN THE WRONG
DIRECTION
Doron Arbiv
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Overview of psi
Anomalous processes of information or energy
transfer that are currently unexplained in terms of
known physical or biological mechanisms. Bemm
,2011 includes telepathy, clairvoyance, psychokinesis,
precognition, premonition.
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More about premonition and
precognition
Common to both is the anomalous retroactive
influence of some future event on an individuals
current responses.
Provocative yet implied reversal of the causalrelation .
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Two challenges for psi research
Empiricalbeing able to withstand experimental
scrutiny .
Theoreticalor, how can we explain psi and stay
in the profession
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Precognition - Empirical overview
Meta-analysis of forced choice paradigms : 309
exp, 62 different investigators, 50,000 ss.
Moving to indirect measure: presentiment
effect(Radin,1997, Bierman & Scholte,2002, forreview Radin,2006).
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Precognition some experiments
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Precognitive detection of erotic
stimuli
Methodn = 100 (50 men), subjects are instructed
to select one of two curtains which they feel has a
picture behind it, 36 trials. 40 sessions: 12 erotic,
12 negative, 12 neutral trials. 60 sessions: 18 erotic,18 non erotic positive. Location of pictures
between 2 curtains was randomized.
Subjects thought it was a clairvoyance test.
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results
Hit rate for erotic pics53.1%, p=.01, d=0.25
Statistical testsone-tailed t-test, binominal test.
Ss high in extraversion57.6%, p=.00002,d=0.71.
Ss low in extraversionns.
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Discussion
Randomnesspseudo-random algorithms Vs
random algorithms.
why is randomness important? Several possible
interpretations for the results: precognition,clairvoyance, psychokinesis, artifactual correlation.
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Has the world gone mad??
No. Wagenmakers et., al, 2011.
Confusion between exploratory and confirmatory
studies.
The fallacy of the transposed conditional.
Bayesian t-test as opposed to the standard t-test.
No fishing expeditions, publicize materials, include
skeptics.
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How is psi explained?
Evolutionavoid danger, detect sexual
opportunities . Cortical arousal suppresses
precognition.
The first sight model - psi information isintegrated like subconscious information.
Quantum mechanicslocality principle, the effect
of the observer.
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The difficulty really is psychological and exists in the
perpetual torment that results from your saying to
yourself, But how can it be like that? which is areflection of uncontrolled but utterly vain desire to see
it in terms of something familiar. . . . Do not keep
saying to yourself . . . But how can it be like that?because you will get . . . into a blind alley from which
nobody has yet escaped.Nobody knows how it can be
like that. (p. 123, emphasis added)
Richard Feynman, 1994.
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My work
Replication
Review of the subject.