8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

1/20

Regresion Lineal

Año X Pasajeros (Y) XY

1975 327.2222222 1 271 271

1976 349.0261438 2 318 636

1977 370.8300654 3 346 1038

1978 392.6339869 4 368 14721979 414.4379085 5 436 2180

1980 436.2418301 6 497 2982

1981 458.0457516 7 481 3367

1982 479.8496732 8 496 3968

1983 501.6535948 9 620 5580

1984 523.4575163 10 549 5490

1985 545.2614379 11 622 6842

1986 567.0653595 12 578 6936

1987 588.869281 13 554 7202

1988 610.6732026 14 458 64121989 632.4771242 15 547 8205

1990 654.2810458 16 611 9776

1991 676.0849673 17 678 11526

1992 697.8888889 18 796 14328

 o!al 171 9226 98211

1993 19 720 2007

1994 20   741 2008

1995 21   763 2009

1996 22 785 2010

1997 23   807 2011

1998 24 829 2012

1999 25   851 2013

2000 26 872 2014

2001 27 894 2015

2002 28 916 2016

2003 29 938 2017

2004 30 960 2018

2005 31 981 2019

2006 32 1003 2020

"# 21.8039216

a# 305.418301

190152 218677.76282

r# 0.87

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

2/20

Regresion Logari!$i%a

Año X Pasajeros (Y) lnX (lnX)2

1975 1 217.2265605 271 0.000 0

1976 2 318.4676983 318 0.693 0.4801977 3 377.6899675 346 1.099 1.207

1978 4 419.7088362 368 1.386 1.922

1979 5 452.3012028 436 1.609 2.590

1980 6 478.9311053 497 1.792 3.210

1981 7 501.4463671 481 1.946 3.787

1982 8 520.949974 496 2.079 4.324

1983 9 538.1533745 620 2.197 4.828

1984 10 553.5423406 549 2.303 5.302

1985 11 567.4633538 622 2.398 5.750

1986 12 580.1722431 578 2.485 6.1751987 13 591.863288 554 2.565 6.579

1988 14 602.6875049 458 2.639 6.965

1989 15 612.7646098 547 2.708 7.334

1990 16 622.1911118 611 2.773 7.687

1991 17 631.0459494 678 2.833 8.027

1992 18 639.3945123 796 2.890 8.354

 o!al 171 9226 36.395 84.521

1993 19 647 2007 33

1994   20 655   2008   34

1995 21 662 2009 35

1996   22 669   2010   36

1997 23 675 2011 37

1998   24 681   2012   38

1999 25 687 2013 39

2000 26 693 2014 40

2001 27 699 2015 41

2002 28 704 2016 42

2003 29 709 2017 43

2004 30 714 2018 44

2005 31 719 2019 45

2006 32 723 2020 46

"# 146.060087

a# 217.226561

28736.2766   32845.1271944

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

3/20

r# 0.87

Regresion &'onen%ial

Año X Pasajeros (Y) lnY '(lnY)1975 1   336.1500542   271 5.602 5.602

1976 2   351.803897   318 5.762 11.524

1977 3 368.1867082 346 5.846 17.539

1978 4 385.3324345 368 5.908 23.632

1979 5 403.2766034 436 6.078 30.388

1980 6 422.0563967 497 6.209 37.252

1981 7 441.7107278 481 6.176 43.231

1982 8 462.2803222 496 6.207 49.653

1983 9 483.8078019 620 6.430 57.867

1984 10 506.3377737 549 6.308 63.0811985 11 529.9169217 622 6.433 70.762

1986 12 554.594104 578 6.360 76.315

1987 13   580.4204538   554 6.317 82.123

1988 14   607.4494857   458 6.127 85.776

1989 15   635.737206   547 6.304 94.567

1990 16   665.3422295   611 6.415 102.642

1991 17   696.3259004   678 6.519 110.826

1992 18   728.7524195   796 6.680 120.233

 o!al 171 9226 111.680 1083.013

1993 19 763 2008 34

1994 20 798 2009 35

1995 21 835 2010 36

1996 22 874 2011 37

1997 23 915 2012 38

1998 24 958 2013 39

1999 25 1002 2014 40

2000 26 1049 2015 41

2001 27 1098 2016 42

2002 28 1149 2017 43

2003 29 1202 2018 44

2004 30 1258 2019 45

2005 31 1317 2020 46

2006 32 1378 2021 47

2007 33 1442 2022 48

"# 0.04551626

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

4/20

a# 321.192744

396.947297 456.4269889

r# 0.87

Año X Pasajeros (Y) lnX lnY

1975 1 258.4353339 271 0.000 5.602

1976 2 322.9192373 318 0.693 5.762

1977 3 367.8615327 346 1.099 5.846

1978 4 403.4929444 368 1.386 5.908

1979 5 433.4908365 436 1.609 6.078

1980 6 459.6490882 497 1.792 6.209

1981 7 482.9932891 481 1.946 6.176

1982 8 504.1711283 496 2.079 6.2071983 9 523.6207651 620 2.197 6.430

1984 10 541.653992 549 2.303 6.308

1985 11 558.5014665 622 2.398 6.433

1986 12 574.3391615 578 2.485 6.360

1987 13 589.304734 554 2.565 6.317

1988 14 603.5081279 458 2.639 6.127

1989 15 617.0387041 547 2.708 6.304

1990 16 629.9701892 611 2.773 6.415

1991 17 642.3642033 678 2.833 6.519

1992 18 654.2728331 796 2.890 6.680

 o!al 171 9226.000 36.395 111.680

1993 19 666 2008 34

1994 20   677   2009 35

1995 21 688 2010 36

1996 22 698 2011 37

1997 23 708 2012 38

1998 24 718 2013 39

1999 25 727 2014 40

2000 26 736 2015 41

2001 27 745 2016 42

2002 28 754 2017 43

2003 29 763 2018 44

2004 30   771   2019 45

2005 31   779   2020 46

2006 32   787   2021 47

2007 33   795   2022 48

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

5/20

"# 0.32137006

a# 258.435334

63.227258 68.55476438

r# 0.92

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

6/20

X2 Y2

1 73441

4 101124

9 119716

16 13542425 190096

36 247009

49 231361

64 246016

81 384400

100 301401

121 386884

144 334084

169 306916

196 209764225 299209

256 373321

289 459684

324 633616

2109 5033466

33   1025 2021   47 1330

34   1047 2022   48 1352

35   1069 2023   49 1374

36 1090 2024 50 1396

37   1112 2025   51 1417

38 1134 2026 52 1439

39   1156 2027   53 1461

40 1178 2028 54 1483

41 1199 2029 55 1505

42 1221 2030 56 1526

43 1243 2031 57 1548

44 1265 2032 58 1570

45 1287 2033 59 1592

46 1308 2034 60 1614

2035 61 1635

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

7/20

 Y2 Yln(')

73441 0

101124 220.421119716 380.120

135424 510.156

190096 701.715

247009 890.504

231361 935.983

246016 1031.403

384400 1362.279

301401 1264.119

386884 1491.491

334084 1436.276306916 1420.982

209764 1208.688

299209 1481.303

373321 1694.052

459684 1920.919

633616 2300.736

5033466 20251.147

728 2021 47 780

732   2022   48 783

737 2023 49 786

741   2024   50 789

745 2025 51 792

749   2026   52 794

752 2027 53 797

756 2028 54 800

760 2029 55 803

763 2030 56 805

767 2031 57 808

770 2032 58 810

773 2033 59 813

776 2034 60 815

2035 61 818

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

8/20

(lnY)2 X231.384 1

33.201 4

34.181 9

34.905 16

36.938 25

38.547 36

38.141 49

38.522 64

41.341 81

39.792 10041.383 121

40.444 144

39.907 169

37.539 196

39.746 225

41.153 256

42.499 289

44.617 324

694.240 2109

1510 2023 49 2988

1580 2024 50 3127

1653 2025 51 3273

1730 2026 52 3425

1811 2027 53 3585

1895 2028 54 3752

1984 2029 55 3926

2076 2030 56 4109

2173 2031 57 4300

2274 2032 58 4501

2380 2033 59 4710

2491 2034 60 4930

2607 2035 61 5159

2728 2036 62 5399

2855 2037 63 5651

1975 1985 1995 20050

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

(') # 3.06054817604994&*037 e'( 0.0455162593 ' )R+ # 0.7563504413

,-ar! i!le

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

9/20

(lnX)(lnY) (lnX)2 (lnY)2

0.000 0.000 31.384

3.994 0.480 33.201

6.423 1.207 34.181

8.190 1.922 34.905

9.782 2.590 36.938

11.124 3.210 38.547

12.018 3.787 38.141

12.906 4.324 38.52214.128 4.828 41.341

14.525 5.302 39.792

15.426 5.750 41.383

15.803 6.175 40.444

16.203 6.579 39.907

16.169 6.965 37.539

17.073 7.334 39.746

17.786 7.687 41.153

18.470 8.027 42.499

19.307 8.354 44.617

229.326 84.521 694.240

803 2023 49 903

810   2024 50   909

818 2025 51 914

825 2026 52 920

832 2027 53 926

839 2028 54 931

846 2029 55 937

852 2030 56 942

859 2031 57 948

866 2032 58 953

872 2033 59 958

878   2034 60   963

885   2035 61   969

891   2036 62   974

897   2037 63   979

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900(') # 7.89638162921593&*2

R+ # 0.7568665674

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

10/20

1970 19750

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

11/20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

(') # 21.8039215686' * 42735.5228758177R+ # 0.7561231778

,-ar! i!le

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

12/20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

,-ar! i!le

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

13/20

2015 2025 2035

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

14/20

6 '/90.3118681878

,-ar! i!le

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

15/20

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

16/20

2005 2010

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

17/20

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

18/20

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

19/20

8/19/2019 Proy-Psjs

20/20

2005 2010