Provocations No. t32 — Page 1 C759 CC499 Waiter Orr ...
2
Provocations No. t32 — Page 1 C759 CC499 Waiter Orr Roberts (Walt R.,759> 11/23/86 12:40 PM L:69 KEVS:/PROUOCflTIONS N O . 132/ Memo to: The Climate Club — C759 9 November 1986 From: Walt Roberts Provocat i on No. 132 ft Galactic Embargo against Terrestrials "Numerous studies of the past two decades have affirmed the likelihood that many advanced extraterrestrial races or civilizations abound within our own Galaxy." That’ s the lead line in a fascinating article by my friend and former NCflR colleague Jim Deardorff, who's now at Oregon State University. Jim reviews arguments holding that our continued existence requires that they are benevolent towards us. He also evaluates the assertions made by some scientists that our failure to get messages from them implies they have placed an embargo on communications to us in order to keep us from "premature" knowledge of them. Far from being an article in some sensational science gee-whiz magazine, Deardorff's article is in the staid "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society" of Enqland. {Q. Jl R. astr. Soc. <1986) v27, 94-101.} The argument starts from Frank Drake's reasoning (which I discussed in Prov-116, C759 CC438) about intelligent extraterrestrials. The number of planets in our galaxy likely to be inhabited now by intelligent creatures now is put at a million, give or take a factor of xlOO either way. On the average, moreover, the Drake reasoning holds that the civilizations out there should be mostly more advanced than we are— by a few thousand years to perhaps hundreds of mill ions of years. He also quotes the arguments of E. M. Jones and others that it should take only about 100 million years for any one advanced race to colonize all the hospitable planets of the galaxy, assuming they travel to them at a speed on about one percent the speed of light, and assuming they want to. With this kind of argument he asserts there's small chance our distant wisp of a galactic arm has been overlooked by colonizers. Instead they have quarantined us! That no messages or colonization effort has been detected, therefore, leads him to assume that either (1) we are unique in the universe, or (2) that we are well known to them and they are deliberate Iy keeping us ignorant of them and behind bars in a sort of zoo or wildlife preserve. He quotes Sagan and Newman as even suggesting there’ s a uni versial law about cosmic imperialism and even a "codex galactica”about how to educate younger societies in the ways to behave. He goes on to list arguments that reject the IikeIiness we are unique, and asserts that we must be prisoners on our smaII pIane t— temporar iIy. He further quotes a respected astronomer, M. D. Papagiannis, as follows, on the matter of admitting to the cosmic community civilizations that are "premature" because they haven't learned to control self- destructi veness, and are thus unfit members of the cosmic order: "...Those [civilizations! that manage to overcome their innate tendencies towards continuous material growth and replace them with non-natural goals will be the only ones to survive this crisis [disbarrment from the cosmic order and self-destruction], fls a result the entire galaxy in a cosmically short time period will become populated by stable, highly ethical and spiritual civilizations."
Transcript of Provocations No. t32 — Page 1 C759 CC499 Waiter Orr ...
Provocations No. t32 — Page 1
C759 CC499 Waiter Orr Roberts (Walt R.,759> 11/23/86 12:40 PM L:69 KEVS:/PROUOCflTIONS NO. 132/Memo to: The Climate Club — C759 9 November 1986From: Walt Roberts
Provocat i on No. 132 ft Galactic Embargo against Terrestrials
"Numerous studies of the past two decades have affirmed the likelihood that many advanced extraterrestrial races or civilizations abound within our own Galaxy." That’s the lead line in a fascinating article by my friend and former NCflR colleague Jim Deardorff, who's now at Oregon State University. Jim reviews arguments holding that our continued existence requires that they are benevolent towards us. He also evaluates the assertions made by some scientists that our failure to get messages from them implies they have placed an embargo on communications to us in order to keep us from "premature" knowledge of them.
Far from being an article in some sensational science gee-whiz magazine, Deardorff's article is in the staid "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society" of Enqland. {Q. Jl R. astr. Soc. <1986) v27, 94-101.}
The argument starts from Frank Drake's reasoning (which I discussed in Prov-116, C759 CC438) about intelligent extraterrestrials. The number of planets in our galaxy likely to be inhabited now by intelligent creatures now is put at a million, give or take a factor of xlOO either way. On the average, moreover, the Drake reasoning holds that the civilizations out there should be mostly more advanced than we are— by a few thousand years to perhaps hundreds of mill ions of years.
He also quotes the arguments of E. M. Jones and others that it should take only about 100 million years for any one advanced race to colonize all the hospitable planets of the galaxy, assuming they travel to them at a speed on about one percent the speed of light, and assuming they want to. With this kind of argument he asserts there's small chance our distant wisp of a galactic arm has been overlooked by colonizers. Instead they have quarantined us!
That no messages or colonization effort has been detected, therefore, leads him to assume that either (1) we are unique in the universe, or (2) that we are well known to them and they are deliberate Iy keeping us ignorant of them and behind bars in a sort of zoo or wildlife preserve. He quotes Sagan and Newman as even suggesting there’s a uni versial law about cosmic imperialism and even a "codex galactica” about how to educate younger societies in the ways to behave. He goes on to list arguments that reject the I ikeIiness we are unique, and asserts that we must be prisoners on our smaII pIane t— temporar iIy.
He further quotes a respected astronomer, M. D. Papagiannis, as follows, on the matter of admitting to the cosmic community civilizations that are "premature" because they haven't learned to control self- destructi veness, and are thus unfit members of the cosmic order: "...Those [civilizations! that manage to overcome their innate tendencies towards continuous material growth and replace them with non-natural goals will be the only ones to survive this crisis [disbarrment from the cosmic order and self-destruction], fls a result the entire galaxy in a cosmically short time period will become populated by stable, highly ethical and spiritual civilizations."
Provocations No. 132 — Page 2
Jim then goes on to describe a plan that might be cooked up by benign extraterrestrials to communicate with us terrestrials and lead us to ex tr i ca te ourseIves from our pred i camen t o f cosm i c i so I a t i on and seIf annihilation. For that primitive behavior we are now barred from the society of the cosmos, and kept behind bars in our earthly cage, the dangerous creatures that we are.
Fascinating stuff!! Not space for it here. If you want a complete copy by maiI let me know (together with the best mail address) and I'll send one aIong. Or you can read it in the JournaI i f you have access to it.
