Prospects for the review of the EU 2020 Strategy, the ... · Regional & Urban Policy Prospects for...

Regional & Urban Policy

Prospects for the review of the EU 2020

Strategy, the Juncker Plan and

Cohesion Policy after 2020

Philippe Monfort

DG for Regional and Urban Policy

European Commission

Jurmala, June 3 2015


Preamble

• Little information concerning the review of the Europe 2020 strategy

• 4 key messages from public consultation (May-October 2014)

relevant overarching framework to promote jobs and growth;

headline targets are key catalysts and help to keep the strategy focused;

Flagship initiatives have generally served their purpose, yet their visibility has remained weak.

Need to improve the delivery of the strategy through enhanced ownership and involvement on the ground.

• Commission will present its policy conclusions on the future of the Strategy later in 2015

• Juncker plan:


Preamble

• Even less information concerning Juncker Plan

• 315 bio euros

• Financial instruments (EIB)

• Large trans-European projects (transport, energy, …)

• Location: ????

• Coherence with / consequence for Cohesion Policy: ???


Prospects for the review of the EU 2020

Strategy, the Juncker Plan and


Philippe Monfort

DG for Regional and Urban Policy

European Commission

Prospects for


Jurmala, June 3 2015


Cohesion Policy is more important than ever in terms of economic

relevance

*GNI data for 2013 on EU 28.


Cohesion Policy is focused on less developed regions

2000-

2004

2004-

2006

2007-

2013

2014-

2020

Less developed * (Obj.1, Convergence) 63,7 60,9 58,6 52,7

Transition ** (Phasing in, Phasing out) 2,2 2,0 7,5 10,3

More developed*** (Obj.2, RCE) 25,8 18,9 13,0 15,7

Cohesion Fund (< 90%) 8,3 18,1 20,9 21,3

Less developed and Cohesion Fund 72,0 79,0 79,4 74,0

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

% o

f allo

cati

on

Distribution of funding between categories per period

* Less developed cover Objective 1 regions in 2000-2006, Convergence regions in 2007-2013 and Less developed in 2014-2020.

** Transition cover Phasing-out regions in 2000-2006, Phasing –out and phasing-in regions in 2007-2013 and Transition in 2014-2020.

*** More developed cover former Objective 2 regions in 2000-2006, Regional Competiveness and Employment regions in 2007-2013 and More Developed in 2014-2020.


Thematic objectives 2014-2020

5,0

31,8

32,5

34,0

58,7

33,0

7,1

37,6

32,4

13,5

40,2

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0

11. Administrative capacity

10. Education

09. Social inclusion

08. Employment

07. Infrastructures

06. Environment

05. Climate change

04. Low-carbon Economy

03. SMEs support

02. ICT

01. Innovation and R&D

In € bn ( excluding technical assistance) based on PAs

In the programming period 2014-20, Cohesion Policy will invest in…


If we focus on infrastructure over a longer time frame (2000-2020)

Cohesion policy is shifting its investments: less road and more urban

transport

• Investments in Road and Rail went

up in 2007-2013 due to the

infrastructural needs of the new

cohesion countries*.

• In 2014-2020, Cohesion Policy

invests more in Urban Transport

but less in Road and Rail.

*New 10 MS in 2004 and new 2 MS in 2007.


MS will also invest more (in % of total) in Innovation + Low-Carbon

Economy and employment than in 2007-13

Note:

Allocation 2014-2020 € 219 bn (excluding technical assistance)

Allocation 2007-2013 € 210.4 bn (excluding technical assistance)

Thematic allocation in iCoheson Countries, 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 in % of the total


MS will also invest more (in % of total) in Innovation + Low-Carbon

Economy and employment than in 2007-13

Note:

Allocation 2014-2020 € 106.7 bn (excluding technical assistance)

Allocation 2007-2013 € 117 bn (excluding technical assistance)

Thematic allocation in Non-Cohesion Countries, 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 in % of the total


Increase in investments in national programmes following EU enlargement

*Single NUTSII MS like CY, MT ,LU, LV, LT, EE are excluded.

Also ETC, CBC programmes and Community Initiatives.


Wrap-up

• Cohesion Policy continues to invest three quarters of its funding in less

developed regions (and Cohesion countries)

• Cohesion Policy has increased its investments in Low-Carbon Economy

and employment

• Cohesion policy has a stronger link with overall EU objectives. For example,

the increase in energy investments + EU 2020

• Cohesion Countries are investing more in innovation and employment in the

2014-2020 compared to the previous programming period.

• Cohesion Policy has become more national compared to the past. Around

half the funding (including Cohesion Fund) is allocated to national level

programmes, despite the fact that there are four times more regional

programmes than national ones.


Cohesion Policy post-2020

• Too early to provide the policy orientations for post 2020

• Spelled out in the 7th Cohesion Report in 2017

• Agenda for policy development – Role of ESPON


Objectives

● To provide solid grounds for policy choices for the post-2020 period

● To gather evidence, carry out analysis and synthesise material for the preparation of the Commission's impact assessment and legislative and financial proposals for post 2020

● To shape the debate on post-2020 both within the Commission and with other institutions and stakeholders

● To coordinate the drafting of the Commission's legislative proposal

Three main components


1. Evidence from past progamming periods

● Ex-post evaluation 2007-2013

● Analysis of some key issues relevant for Cohesion Policy:

Investment mix;

Possible trade-off between cohesion and EU growth;

Impact of macro-economic framework on effectiveness of Cohesion Policy…

● Lessons from programme negotiation and implementation

Uptake of territorial approaches

Linkages with CSRs

● Feed back from MS and stakeholders

● Academia


2. Identify options for the future

● Reflection on objectives and value added of the policy

● Enhance effectiveness (e.g. result orientation) and efficiency (e.g. alternative delivery modes)

● Architecture and budget

● Exchanges with other institutions, MS and stakeholders

● Exchanges with academia (conferences, research of particular interest for policy development, …)


3. Impact assessment and legislative proposal

● Policy orientations in the 7th Cohesion Report (2017)

● Public consultation

● MFF proposal (2018)

● IA on proposal using material collected during steps 1 and 2 + additional analysis


Cohesion Policy Post 2020 – Time table

MF

FP

ost-

2020

Pres.

Years

COM

IA: Impact Assessement

Rep

orts

to E

P a

nd C

ounc

il

(req

uest

ed b

y th

e re

gula

tion

s)

Commission JunckerNext

Commission

AT ROEL IT LV LU NL SK

2018 2019

MT UK EE BG

Commission

Barroso

2014 2015 2016 2017

COM

Proposal

Review of Europe 2020 strategyBudget

review

Preparation of MFF

proposal

MFF

proposal

Negotiations with EP and Council

on the MFF

Negotiations with EP and Council /

Trilogues Preparation and work on the legislative package IA

7th Cohes ion Report

~ Contribution to the

Spring meeeting of the

European Council

~ Annual summary report on the ESI Funds

programmes 2014-2020

~ Annual summary of

data on financial

instruments

~ Report on the review of

measures linked to sound

economic governance

~ First strategic report on the implementation

progress of the


~ Annual summary of data

on financial instruments

~ Synthesis of ex-post

evaluations of 2007-

20013 programmes

~ First annual summary report on the ESI Funds


~ First annual summary

of data on financial

instruments

~ Report on the

outcome of the

negotiations on the

partnership agreements and programmes for

the ESI Funds


Milestones for preparation process

• End -2015: Policy communication: Investing in Growth and Jobs – maximising the contribution of European Structural and Investment Funds

• 2016: Budget review, work on impact assessment, first annual summary report on 2014-2020 ESIF programmes, communication on results of ex post evaluations

• 2017: Contribution to MFF proposal (due by end 2017), 7th cohesion report, report on MEC, first strategic report on 214-2020 programmes, preparation of legislative proposals

• 2018: Adoption of legislative proposals


Thank you for your attention!


-15,0%

-10,0%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

Lu

xe

mb

ou

rg

Po

rtu

ga

l

Italy

Sw

ed

en

Slo

ven

ia

Au

str

ia

La

tvia

Irela

nd

Fra

nc

e

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Lit

hu

an

ia

Cro

ati

a

Den

mark

Gre

ece

Fin

lan

d

Cze

ch

Rep

ub

lic

Es

ton

ia

Ro

man

ia

Po

lan

d

Belg

ium

Ma

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Sp

ain

Hu

ng

ary

Germ

an

y

Bu

lga

ria

Slo

vakia

Cyp

rus

Neth

erl

an

ds

TO1. Innovation and R&D

% of TO allocation change between 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 programming periods per MS


-10,0%

-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

Ro

man

ia

Neth

erl

an

ds

Belg

ium

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Cyp

rus

Hu

ng

ary

Cze

ch

Rep

ub

lic

Au

str

ia

Germ

an

y

Bu

lga

ria

Slo

vakia

Irela

nd

Sw

ed

en

Gre

ece

Po

lan

d

Sp

ain

Fra

nc

e

Lit

hu

an

ia

Es

ton

ia

Ma

lta

La

tvia

Den

mark

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Italy

Fin

lan

d

Cro

ati

a

Slo

ven

ia

Po

rtu

ga

l

T03. SMEs support

% of TO allocation change between 2007-2013 and 2014-2020 periods per MS


-5,0%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

Ma

lta

Cyp

rus

Hu

ng

ary

Gre

ece

Italy

Cze

ch

Rep

ub

lic

Sw

ed

en

Fra

nc

e

Slo

ven

ia

Slo

va

kia

Po

rtu

ga

l

Irela

nd

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Po

lan

d

Cro

ati

a

Lit

hu

an

ia

Es

ton

ia

Bu

lga

ria

Neth

erl

an

ds

La

tvia

Belg

ium

Au

str

ia

Sp

ain

Den

mark

Germ

an

y

Fin

lan

d

Ro

man

ia

Lu

xem

bo

urg

T04. Low-carbon economy



-3,0%

-2,0%

-1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

Bu

lga

ria

Au

str

ia

Sp

ain

Po

lan

d

Cro

ati

a

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Fra

nc

e

Cze

ch

Rep

ub

lic

Fin

lan

d

Ma

lta

La

tvia

Neth

erl

an

ds

Germ

an

y

Lit

hu

an

ia

Belg

ium

Cyp

rus

Den

mark

Irela

nd

Sw

ed

en

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Po

rtu

ga

l

Slo

ven

ia

Gre

ece

Slo

vakia

Ro

man

ia

Hu

ng

ary

Es

ton

ia

Italy

TO11. Administrative capacity



A. Lessons from the 2007-2013 period

• Ex post evaluations of 2007-2013 programmes

• Internal analysis (modelling, econometric and statistical analyses)

• Evidence from academic research

• Feedback from Member States and stakeholders


B. Lessons from preparation of 2014-2020 legislative package and inter-institutional negotiations

• Internal review of preparation process

• Gap analysis to review outcome of legislative process and identify potential risks

• Analysis by Internal Audit Service (IAS) of outcome of negotiations

• Assessment by outside stakeholders (Member States, EP and other EU institutions, academics and stakeholders)


C. Lessons from negotiating programmes with Member states

• Studies to assess integration of reform elements in programming and understand choices made by Member States and regions

• Internal analysis (thematic concentration, results orientation, uptake of territorial approaches, linkages with CSRs, administrative capacity etc.)

• Synthesis of Member State assessment of negotiations


D. Lessons from the implementation of programmes on the ground

• Studies to assess impact of reform elements in programme implementation and uptake of new elements (such as opportunities for simplification for beneficiaries)

• Internal analysis by competence centres of contribution to key EU priorities

• Analysis of interpretation questions arising in implementation to identify practical difficulties


A. Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 - Prospects

• Has the allocation of Cohesion Policy funding changed

among groups of regions between 2000 and 2020?

• What are the investment patterns in the different

programming periods?

• Has the focus of Cohesion Policy shifted to the

national/regional level?


Methodology

Karvounis A, and Gullo D, ‘EU Regional policy 2000-2020: Shifting in Economic Priorities?’

• Data collection from 293 OPs in 2000-2006, 367 OPs in 2007-2013 and 370

OPs in 2014-2020.

• Comparative analysis and clustering for Less developed, Transition and

More developed regions

• Data aggregation and clustering for more than 90 categories of investment

on average

• Data aggregation based on NUTS2 codes for more than 293 Sectoral,

Multiregional and Regional Programmes in each programming period

• The data analysis was carried out by group of regions and Member States

(less developed vs. more developed) and by level of implementation

(national vs. regional).

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