Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315...

37
Cr Pr 2-4 (3-05) Washington, D.C. Prospective Plantings Released March 31, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Prospective Plantings call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. Corn Planted Acreage Up 1 Percent from 2004 Soybean Acreage Down 2 Percent All Wheat Acreage Down 2 Percent All Cotton Acreage Up 1 Percent Corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 81.4 million acres, up 1 percent from 2004 and 4 percent above 2003. If realized, this would be largest corn acreage since 1985. Expected acreage is up from last year throughout much of the Corn Belt and southern Great Plains. However, growers in most States in the Delta, Southeast, and northern Great Plains intend to decrease their corn acreage as producers are switching to other more profitable crops due to low corn prices and high fuel and fertilizer costs. Soybean producers intend to plant 73.9 million acres in 2005, down 2 percent from last year’s record high acreage. Of the 31 soybean producing States, growers in 16 States intend to plant fewer acres this year, while producers in 11 States intend to plant more acres than in 2004. The largest acreage declines are in the Dakotas, where low soybean prices have some farmers shifting to other crops. Large declines in soybean acreage are also expected in the Delta and Southeast States. Due to the discovery of Asian soybean rust in the U.S., questions were asked of farmers in soybean producing States about their awareness of the disease and how it has affected their planting decisions. For detailed results of this effort, see pages 20 - 23 of this report. All wheat planted area is expected to total 58.6 million acres in 2005, down 2 percent from 2004. If realized, this would be the lowest planted acreage since 1972. Winter wheat planted area for the 2005 crop is 41.6 million acres, down 4 percent from 2004. Of the total, about 30.5 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.6 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 4.5 million acres are White Winter. The 2005 other spring wheat planted acreage is estimated at 14.4 million, up 4 percent from last year. Of the total, about 13.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Area planted to Durum wheat is intended to total 2.61 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous year. All cotton plantings for 2005 are expected to total 13.8 million acres, 1 percent above last year. Upland acreage is expected to total 13.5 million acres, also up 1 percent. Producers in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, and Texas intend to decrease acreage from last year. Growers in all other cotton producing States intend to increase planted acreage. American-Pima cotton growers intend to increase their plantings 10 percent from 2004, to 275,000 acres. The increase is primarily in California, where producers are intending to plant 25,000 more Pima acres than last year.

Transcript of Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315...

Page 1: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Cr Pr 2-4 (3-05)

Washington, D.C.

ProspectivePlantings

Released March 31, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Prospective Plantings call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

Corn Planted Acreage Up 1 Percent from 2004Soybean Acreage Down 2 Percent

All Wheat Acreage Down 2 PercentAll Cotton Acreage Up 1 Percent

Corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 81.4 million acres, up 1 percent from 2004 and 4 percent above2003. If realized, this would be largest corn acreage since 1985. Expected acreage is up from last year throughoutmuch of the Corn Belt and southern Great Plains. However, growers in most States in the Delta, Southeast, andnorthern Great Plains intend to decrease their corn acreage as producers are switching to other more profitable cropsdue to low corn prices and high fuel and fertilizer costs.

Soybean producers intend to plant 73.9 million acres in 2005, down 2 percent from last year’s record high acreage. Of the 31 soybean producing States, growers in 16 States intend to plant fewer acres this year, while producers in11 States intend to plant more acres than in 2004. The largest acreage declines are in the Dakotas, where lowsoybean prices have some farmers shifting to other crops. Large declines in soybean acreage are also expected inthe Delta and Southeast States.

Due to the discovery of Asian soybean rust in the U.S., questions were asked of farmers in soybean producingStates about their awareness of the disease and how it has affected their planting decisions. For detailed results ofthis effort, see pages 20 - 23 of this report.

All wheat planted area is expected to total 58.6 million acres in 2005, down 2 percent from 2004. If realized, thiswould be the lowest planted acreage since 1972. Winter wheat planted area for the 2005 crop is 41.6 million acres,down 4 percent from 2004. Of the total, about 30.5 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.6 million acres are SoftRed Winter, and 4.5 million acres are White Winter. The 2005 other spring wheat planted acreage is estimated at14.4 million, up 4 percent from last year. Of the total, about 13.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Areaplanted to Durum wheat is intended to total 2.61 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous year.

All cotton plantings for 2005 are expected to total 13.8 million acres, 1 percent above last year. Upland acreage isexpected to total 13.5 million acres, also up 1 percent. Producers in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Kansas,and Texas intend to decrease acreage from last year. Growers in all other cotton producing States intend to increaseplanted acreage. American-Pima cotton growers intend to increase their plantings 10 percent from 2004, to275,000 acres. The increase is primarily in California, where producers are intending to plant 25,000 more Pimaacres than last year.

Page 2: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 2 NASS, USDA

This report was approved on March 31, 2005.

Acting Secretary ofAgriculture

Mary Kirtley Waters

Agricultural Statistics BoardChairpersonRich Allen

Page 3: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 3 NASS, USDA

Contents

Page

Grains & HayBarley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Hay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Oats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Sorghum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Wheat, Other Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Wheat, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

OilseedsCanola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Flaxseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Asian Rust Awareness by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions by State and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Asian Rust Awareness by Intended Planted Acreage and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions by Intended Planted Acreage and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Sunflower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar CropsCotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Dry Beans, Peas & LentilsDry Edible Beans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Potatoes & Miscellaneous CropsSweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Reliability of Acreage Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Page 4: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 4 NASS, USDA

Corn: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALAZARCACOCTDEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY

US

22047

365530

1,08030

17075

340190

11,2005,600

12,3002,9001,170

52028

48020

2,2507,200

5502,900

688,100

41580

1301,000

7401,4503,300

23051

1,4502

2404,400

7101,830

55100470130

483,750

85

78,603

22053

320540

1,20031

16070

335230

11,7505,700

12,7003,1001,210

42028

49020

2,2007,500

4602,950

708,250

41586

125980820

1,8003,350

25058

1,4002

3154,650

6801,830

5595

500170

483,600

90

80,930

21560

260560

1,20032

16065

270240

12,0005,800

12,8003,4001,290

39028

46020

2,1507,500

4003,100

718,400

31478

1201,000

7901,5003,400

27050

1,3502

3304,400

6901,950

5090

470150

503,700

85

81,413

98113

81104100103100

9381

104102102101110107

93100

94100

98100

87105101102

75939196

1029683

101108

8696

100105

95101107

91959488

104103

94

101 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Page 5: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 5 NASS, USDA

Sorghum: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALAZARCACODE 2

GAILKSKYLAMD 2

MSMONENMNCOKPASCSDTNTXVA 2

US

1017

22518

2702

55110

3,55033

1706

75215660140

18300

157

27045

3,2009

9,420

10206028

2802

4585

3,2001585

520

150550140

17270

127

25020

2,2105

7,486

5189026

260

55130

2,90022

100

30150390140

17280

139

25015

2,500

7,400

5090

1509393

122153

91147118

150100

71100100104108129100

75113

99 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Estimates discontinued in 2005.

Page 6: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 6 NASS, USDA

Oats: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

AL 3

CACOGAIDILINIAKSMEMIMNMOMTNENYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTXUTVA 3

WAWIWY

US

260100100120

6025

220140

2790

35030

120220

8555

620807060

14040

420625

65

35380

60

4,597

2407590905525

220120

3480

31026

105140

6555

490655050

13040

380680

60

20340

50

4,085

50250

75100

905020

240110

3280

3103590

1508555

530654545

14035

390700

601530

32070

4,267

104100111100

9180

1099294

100100135

86107131100108100

9090

10888

103103100

15094

140

104 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 3 Estimates began in 2005.

Page 7: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 7 NASS, USDA

Barley: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

AZCACODEIDKSKYMEMDMIMNMTNE 3

NVNJNYNCNDOHORPASDUTVAWAWIWY

US

32100

8525

75099

284315

1901,150

654

1520

2,0507

7075754575

3205590

5,348

40110

8029

68015

9234214

1301,000

643

1423

1,6005

7565705055

2504590

4,527

35100

6529

6502010224618

140950

43

2022

1,2005

7555704060

2005085

3,974

889181

10096

133111

96110129108

95

100100143

9675

100100

85100

80109

80111

94

88 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 3 Estimates discontinued in 2005.

Page 8: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 8 NASS, USDA

All Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALAZARCACODEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMOMTNENVNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWVWIWY

US

150119700870

2,6305020

3801,190

850460

2510,500

500155165680

1,877150960

5,4401,900

1231

500130530

8,6301,0606,7001,115

175200

3,078430

6,600177210

2,40012

212168

62,141

120105670680

2,3155018

3301,250

920450

2810,000

530180160660

1,728160

1,0505,4701,850

1428

490105600

8,195920

6,2001,000

140190

3,270400

6,300143210

2,3308

247160

59,674

12085

240590

2,6705020

3501,250

650360

2510,100

420130150650

1,975110700

5,3101,800

1728

490120590

9,010840

5,9001,020

180180

3,318270

5,800152200

2,3407

205170

58,592

100813687

115100111106100

718089

10179729498

11469679797

121100100114

98110

9195

102129

95101

6892

10695

1008883

106

98 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended plantings for 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Page 9: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 9 NASS, USDA

Winter Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALAZARCACODEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMOMTNENVNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWVWIWY

US

1504

700740

2,6005020

380760850460

2510,500

500155165680

25150960

1,9001,900

731

500130530130

1,0606,700

970175200

1,650430

6,600160210

1,85012

205160

45,384

1205

670560

2,3005018

330750920450

2810,000

530180160660

27160

1,0501,9001,850

628

490105600245920

6,200820140190

1,650400

6,300130210

1,8008

240150

43,350

1205

240500

2,6505020

350770650360

2510,100

420130150650

25110700

2,1501,800

828

490120590260840

5,900870180180

1,500270

5,800135200

1,9007

200160

41,613

100100

3689

115100111106103

718089

10179729498936967

11397

133100100114

98106

9195

106129

95916892

10495

1068883

107

96 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall.

Page 10: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 10 NASS, USDA

Durum Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

AZCAID 3

MN 4

MTNDSD

US

115130

2640

2,00028

2,915

100120

1570

1,75020

2,561

809010

5601,850

18

2,608

8075

98106

90

102 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall in AZ and CA. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 3 Estimates began in 2005. 4 Estimates discontinued in 2005.

Other Spring Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

COIDMNMTNVNDORSDUTWAWIWY

US

30430

1,8502,900

56,500

1451,400

17550

78

13,842

15500

1,7003,000

86,200

1801,600

13530

710

13,763

20470

1,9502,600

96,900

1501,800

17440

510

14,371

13394

11587

113111

83113131

8371

100

104 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Page 11: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 11 NASS, USDA

Rice: Area Planted by Class, State,and United States, 2003-2005

Classand

State

Area Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

Long Grain AR CA LA MS MO TX

US

Medium Grain AR CA LA MO TX

US

Short Grain AR CA 2

US

All AR CA LA MS MO TX

US

1,3007

435235175180

2,332

165460

2011

647

142

43

1,466509455235176181

3,022

1,4057

525235195220

2,587

155540

1312

711

148

49

1,561595538235196222

3,347

1,4606

540260205210

2,681

110510

1011

632

144

45

1,571560550260206211

3,358

10486

103111105

95

104

719477

10050

89

10092

92

10194

102111105

95

100 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Includes sweet rice.

Page 12: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 12 NASS, USDA

All Hay: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Harvested

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALAZARCACOCTDEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY

US

780275

1,3401,6201,500

6313

255600

1,500775650

1,6003,2502,450

380144195

791,0502,075

7504,2502,4503,150

44052

120300

1,850778

2,9501,3502,8101,1001,650

9340

4,3002,0305,240

700235

1,280810545

2,1001,200

63,383

850275

1,4201,5501,520

6614

260600

1,480750660

1,6003,3502,340

370155215

881,1002,000

7204,3502,5002,800

42057

120330

1,270712

2,7301,1903,0601,1301,700

9330

3,9001,9355,350

715230

1,290790575

2,050990

61,916

865280

1,3001,6001,600

7014

265600

1,450750680

1,5003,3002,300

400160200

901,1001,950

7504,3502,5002,850

45057

120330

1,740710

2,8001,2503,2001,1301,750

9330

4,2001,9205,400

720230

1,290770560

2,0001,050

62,940

102102

92103105106100102100

98100103

949998

108103

93102100

98104100100102107100100100137100103105105100103100100108

99101101100100

979798

106

102 1 Intended area harvested in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Flaxseed: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

MNMTNDSD

US

817

56010

595

320

49010

523

935

85025

919

300175173250

176 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Page 13: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 13 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALARDEFLGAILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMONENJNYNCNDOHOKPASCSDTNTXVAWVWI

US

1702,920

18013

19010,300

5,45010,600

2,6001,250

760435

2,0007,5001,4405,0004,550

90140

1,4503,1504,300

270380430

4,2501,150

200500

161,720

73,404

2103,200

21019

2809,9505,550

10,2002,8001,3101,100

5002,0007,3001,6705,0004,800

105175

1,5303,7504,450

320430540

4,1501,210

290540

191,600

75,208

1603,100

18011

2209,7005,400

10,3002,9001,350

850450

2,0007,3001,6005,1004,800

100190

1,5503,2504,500

340440440

4,0501,220

310530

191,550

73,910

76978658799797

101104103

7790

100100

96102100

95109101

87101106102

8198

101107

98100

97

98 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Peanuts: Area Planted by Stateand United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALFLGANMNCOKSCTXVA

US

190.0125.0545.0

18.0101.0

37.019.0

275.034.0

1,344.0

200.0145.0620.0

17.0105.0

35.035.0

240.033.0

1,430.0

215.0155.0750.0

18.0105.0

34.055.0

240.025.0

1,597.0

108107121106100

97157100

76

112 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Page 14: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 14 NASS, USDA

Sunflower: Area Planted by Type, State,and United States, 2003-2005

VarietalType and

State

Area Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

Oil CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts 2 3

US

Non-Oil CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts 2 3

US

All CO KS MN NE ND SD TX

Oth Sts 2 3

US

95170

5551

1,060475

17

75

1,998

35233515

1503042

16

346

130193

9066

1,210505

59

91

2,344

90150

3036

720410

18

79

1,533

45213020

1602523

16

340

135171

6056

880435

41

95

1,873

130260

8555

1,000550

35

70

2,185

60406540

2605040

10

565

190300150

951,260

60075

80

2,750

144173283153139134194

143

133190217200163200174

166

141175250170143138183

147 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY, in 2003 and 2004, and only

include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY beginning in 2005. 3 2005 estimates carried forward from 2004. First 2005 estimate will be published in “Acreage” on June 30, 2005.

Canola: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

MNMT 2

ND

Oth Sts 3 4

US

57

970

55

1,082

35

780

50

865

4523

950

29

1,047

129

122

121 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Estimates began as part of the federal program in 2005. 3 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA, in 2003 and 2004, and only include ID,

MI, OR, and WA beginning in 2005. 4 2005 estimates carried forward from 2004. First 2005 estimate will be published in “Acreage” on June 30, 2005.

Page 15: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 15 NASS, USDA

Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State,and United States, 2003-2005

Typeand

State

Area Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

Upland AL AZ AR CA FL GA KS LA MS MO NM NC OK SC TN TX VA

US

Amer-Pima AZ CA NM TX

US

All AL AZ AR CA FL GA KS LA MS MO NM NC OK SC TN TX VA

US

525.0215.0980.0550.0

94.01,300.0

90.0525.0

1,110.0400.0

53.0810.0180.0220.0560.0

5,600.089.0

13,301.0

2.5150.0

6.120.0

178.6

525.0217.5980.0700.0

94.01,300.0

90.0525.0

1,110.0400.0

59.1810.0180.0220.0560.0

5,620.089.0

13,479.6

550.0240.0910.0560.0

89.01,290.0

85.0500.0

1,110.0380.0

68.0730.0220.0215.0530.0

5,850.082.0

13,409.0

3.0215.0

10.621.0

249.6

550.0243.0910.0775.0

89.01,290.0

85.0500.0

1,110.0380.0

78.6730.0220.0215.0530.0

5,871.082.0

13,658.6

560.0230.0980.0480.0

85.01,200.0

80.0620.0

1,250.0410.0

70.0760.0230.0230.0570.0

5,700.085.0

13,540.0

3.0240.0

10.022.0

275.0

560.0233.0980.0720.0

85.01,200.0

80.0620.0

1,250.0410.0

80.0760.0230.0230.0570.0

5,722.085.0

13,815.0

10296

10886969394

124113108103104105107108

97104

101

100112

94105

110

10296

10893969394

124113108102104105107108

97104

101 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Page 16: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 16 NASS, USDA

Sugarbeets: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

CACOIDMIMNMTNENDOHORWAWY

US

50.828.6

208.0179.0492.0

51.745.3

259.02.0

10.04.0

35.0

1,365.4

49.536.0

195.0165.0486.0

53.749.8

256.01.8

13.03.8

36.4

1,346.0

49.038.0

173.0149.0484.0

52.049.0

259.00.07.03.0

36.0

1,299.0

99106

8990

1009798

101

547999

97 1 Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA

and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Tobacco: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Harvested

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

Acres Acres Acres Percent

CTFLGAIN 2

KYMD 2

MAMONCOHPASCTNVAWVWI 2

US

2,1804,400

27,0004,200

111,6501,1001,2501,400

159,7005,3003,700

30,00031,14025,110

1,2001,820

411,150

2,3404,000

23,0004,200

114,8001,1001,2201,450

156,5005,6004,000

27,00031,26029,790

1,3001,500

409,060

2,3002,800

19,000

82,200

1,2501,400

133,3004,5005,200

23,00025,26018,950

700

319,860

987083

72

102978580

13085816454

78 1 Intended area harvested in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Estimates discontinued in 2005.

Page 17: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 17 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State,and United States, 2003-2005

Class and TypeArea Harvested

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

Acres Acres Acres Percent

Class 1, Flue-cured Type 11, Old Belts NC VA US Type 12, Eastern NC Belt NC Type 13, NC Border & SC Belt NC SC US Type 14, GA-FL Belt FL GA US Total 11-14Class 2, Fire-cured Type 21, VA Belt VA Type 22, Eastern District KY TN US Type 23, Western District KY TN US Total 21-23Class 3, Air-cured Class 3A, Light Air-cured Type 31, Burley IN 2

KY MO NC OH PA 3

TN VA WV US Type 32, Southern MD Belt MD 2

PA US Total 31-32

40,00018,00058,000

94,000

20,00030,00050,000

4,40027,00031,400

233,400

550

2,6005,2007,800

2,500400

2,90011,250

4,200103,000

1,4005,7005,300

25,0006,5001,200

152,300

1,1001,3002,400

154,700

43,00023,00066,000

89,000

19,40027,00046,400

4,00023,00027,000

228,400

720

2,7005,3008,000

2,500420

2,92011,640

4,200106,000

1,4505,1005,600

25,0006,0001,300

154,650

1,1002,2003,300

157,950

31,00014,00045,000

83,000

16,50023,00039,500

2,80019,00021,800

189,300

450

3,0005,3008,300

2,600420

3,02011,770

73,0001,4002,8004,5002,400

19,0004,500

700108,300

1,5001,500

109,800

726168

93

858585

70838183

63

111100104

104100103101

69975580

76755470

684570

See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued

Page 18: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 18 NASS, USDA

Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State,and United States, 2003-2005 (continued)

Class and TypeArea Harvested

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

Acres Acres Acres Percent

Class 3, Air-curedClass 3B, Dark Air-cured Type 35, One Sucker Belt KY TN US Type 36, Green River Belt KY Type 37, VA Sun-cured Belt VA 4

Total 35-37Class 4, Cigar Filler Type 41, PA Seedleaf PAClass 5, Cigar Binder Class 5A, CT Valley Binder Type 51, CT Valley Broadleaf CT MA US Class 5B, WI Binder Type 54, Southern WI WI 2

Type 55, Northern WI WI 2

Total 54-55 Total 51-55Class 6, Cigar Wrapper Type 61, CT Valley Shade-grown CT MA USAll Cigar Types Total 41-61

All Tobacco

2,300540

2,840

1,250

604,150

2,400

1,400970

2,370

1,400

4201,8204,190

780280

1,060

7,650

411,150

2,300540

2,840

1,300

704,210

1,800

1,450920

2,370

1,100

4001,5003,870

890300

1,190

6,860

409,060

2,300540

2,840

1,300

4,140

1,300

1,350950

2,300

2,300

950300

1,250

4,850

319,860

100100100

100

98

72

93103

97

59

107100105

71

78 1 Intended area harvested in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Estimates discontinued in 2005. 3 Estimates began in 2005. 4 No sun-cured tobacco is expected to be harvested in 2005.

Page 19: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 19 NASS, USDA

Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted by Stateand United States, 2003-2005 1

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

CACOIDKSMIMNMTNENMNYNDORSDTXUTWAWI 3

WY

US

77.080.075.012.0

170.0115.0

13.0155.0

10.025.0

540.07.08.0

50.05.6

27.56.0

30.0

1,406.1

60.075.080.0

9.0190.0115.0

13.0120.0

6.024.0

560.08.09.0

20.05.3

30.05.0

25.0

1,354.3

60.090.095.0

9.5235.0130.0

14.0160.0

6.028.0

720.08.0

20.017.0

6.035.0

30.0

1,663.5

100120119106124113108133100117129100222

85113117

120

123 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 3 Estimates discontinued in 2005.

Sweet Potatoes: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005

StateArea Planted

2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent

ALCALAMSNJNCSCTXVA

US

2.710.719.014.0

1.143.0

1.43.40.5

95.8

2.811.516.016.0

1.245.0

1.03.50.4

97.4

2.711.217.018.0

1.240.0

1.03.40.4

94.9

9697

106113100

89100

97100

97 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.

Page 20: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 20 NASS, USDA

Asian Soybean Rust

The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts the March Agricultural Survey in all States each year. Randomly selected farmers across the United States were asked what they intend to plant during the upcominggrowing season for a number of crops, including soybeans. Due to the discovery of Asian soybean rust in theUnited States and the heightened speculation of how growers would react to the fast-spreading, yield-reducingdisease, questions were included in the March Agricultural Survey for the 31 soybean-producing States to measurefarmer awareness of Asian soybean rust and how its discovery has affected their planting decisions for the2005 crop.

Results of the Asian soybean rust questions by State are included in the following tables, along with results by acresintended to be planted for 2005 and Region.

These survey results are subject to sampling variability because all operations planting soybeans are not included inthe sample of over 68,000. The variability for the 31 soybean-producing States, as measured by the relativestandard error at the U.S. level, is approximately 2.4 percent for farmer awareness, 4.6 percent for whether Asianrust was a factor in the planting decisions, and 4.3 percent for their change in planting intentions. This means thatchances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates will be within plus or minus 4.8 percent for farmerawareness, 9.2 percent for whether Asian rust was a factor in the planting decisions, and 8.6 percent for theirchange in planting intentions.

Soybeans: Asian Rust Awareness by State and United States,Percent of All Farms and Farms Reporting Soybean Intentions, March 2005

State

Have you seen, read, or heard any information about Asian Rust?

All Farms Farms Reporting Soybean Intentions

Yes No Don’t Know Yes No Don’t Know

Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent

ALARDEFLGAILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMONENJNYNCNDOHOKPASCSDTNTXVAWVWI

US

323822

3308962876135523536594262863322376048243438762615212863

43

5858659770

932

63264255361335731136776633239746658207176786526

51

104

13 * *26771

2312

38171 *2 *8

132 *443917

11

6

91885972909881948965919193828893968675849692708782958569869178

89

910

32510

218

28

29496

1312

63

122316

45

291218

59

2814

58

8

*2

383 * *14365 *15 *1122 * *311 * *63 *4

14

3

* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent.

Page 21: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 21 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions for All FarmOperators who are Aware of Rust by State, Region, and United States

March 2005

State andRegion 1

Was Asian Rust a factor in your planting intentions?

YesIf so, how did your intentions change?

Increase Decrease No Change

Percent Percent Percent Percent

ALARDEFLGAILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMONENJNYNCNDOHOKPASCSDTNTXVAWVWI

NortheastGreat Lake StatesCorn BeltNorthern PlainsAppalachianSoutheastDelta StatesSouthern Plains

US

7696

1012

885388773584276624

13862217

47874352

6

25 * *347

104233

1213

38

17 *

24 *871

1915174

124

1310

710

1234

7

57595287505848495648754932567628435626515033544379716669593875

4458475456617063

53

41364813473845414050224856312164404450494260453820243324375021

4332463643372733

40

* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1 Regions consist of the following States: Appalachian: KY, NC, TN, VA, WV; Corn Belt: IA, IL, IN, MO, OH; Delta States: AR, LA, MS;

Great Lake States: MI, MN, WI; Northeast: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA; Northern Plains: KS, NE, ND, SD; Southeast: AL, FL, GA, SC; SouthernPlains: OK, TX.

Soybeans: Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions for Soybean FarmOperators who are Aware of Rust by Region and United States

March 2005

Region 1

Was Asian Rust a factor in your planting intentions?

YesIf so, how did your intentions change?

Increase Decrease No Change

Percent Percent Percent Percent

NortheastGreat Lake StatesCorn BeltNorthern PlainsAppalachianSoutheastDelta StatesSouthern Plains

US

129

101113291915

11

1614

712

2456

9

4445474855636355

49

4041464043333239

42 1 Regions consist of the following States: Appalachian: KY, NC, TN, VA, WV; Corn Belt: IA, IL, IN, MO, OH; Delta States: AR, LA, MS;

Great Lake States: MI, MN, WI; Northeast: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA; Northern Plains: KS, NE, ND, SD; Southeast: AL, FL, GA, SC; SouthernPlains: OK, TX.

Page 22: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 22 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Asian Rust Awareness by Intended Planted Acreage, Region, andUnited States, Percent of Farms Reporting Soybean Intentions, March 2005

Soybean AcresIntended and

Region 1

Have you seen, read, or heardany information about Asian Rust?

Yes No Don’t Know

Percent Percent Percent

1-99 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

100-249 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

250-499 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

500-999 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

1000 Acres & Over Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

8073868768807453

80

9594969594958187

95

9994979890979785

96

9798999898989792

98

8595999897969693

97

1517111028192546

15

532345

1110

3

13129328

2

21121136

1

63123337

2

510

334111

5

*3222 *83

2

*32 *1 *17

2

11 * *11 *2

1

92 * * *11 *

1

* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1 Regions consist of the following States: Appalachian: KY, NC, TN, VA, WV; Corn Belt: IA, IL, IN, MO, OH; Delta States: AR, LA,

MS; Great Lake States: MI, MN, WI; Northeast: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA; Northern Plains: KS, NE, ND, SD; Southeast: AL, FL, GA,SC; Southern Plains: OK, TX.

Page 23: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 23 NASS, USDA

Soybeans: Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions for Operators whoIntend to Plant Soybeans and are Aware of

Rust by Intended Planted Acreage, Region, and United States, March 2005

Soybean AcresIntended and

Region 1

Was Asian Rust a factor in your planting intentions?

YesIf so, how did your intentions change?

Increase Decrease No Change

Percent Percent Percent Percent

1-99 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

100-249 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

250-499 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

500-999 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

1000 Acres & Over Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains

US

11789

1224

812

9

1511131314372518

13

159

111117362425

12

13151011113719

7

12

347

131010311611

12

2115

8814 * *

9

14161016

113

14

11

*848 *

144 *

5

481

118 *8

22

6

*19102617 *5 *

12

4239424855538371

46

5246443857746375

46

6043596854636716

58

1963455044795831

51

1534574060745533

51

3746504444431729

45

3438464642253411

43

4049372446232984

37

7729543948213447

43

8547333423264067

37

* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1 Regions consist of the following States: Appalachian: KY, NC, TN, VA, WV; Corn Belt: IA, IL, IN, MO, OH; Delta States: AR, LA,

MS; Great Lake States: MI, MN, WI; Northeast: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA; Northern Plains: KS, NE, ND, SD; Southeast: AL, FL, GA,SC; Southern Plains: OK, TX.

Page 24: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 24 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005(Domestic Units) 1

CropArea Planted Area Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain 2

Corn for Silage Hay, All Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain 2

Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3

4,527.080,930.0

4,085.0710.0

3,347.01,380.07,486.0

59,674.043,350.0

2,561.013,763.0

865.0

523.073.0

1,430.08.7

175.075,208.0

1,873.0

13,658.613,409.0

249.61,346.0

30.51,354.3

530.0345.0

1,194.018.776.559.1

1,039.7

97.4

3,974.081,413.0

4,267.0

3,358.0

7,400.0

58,592.041,613.0

2,608.014,371.0

1,047.0

919.0

1,597.0

73,910.02,750.0

13,815.013,540.0

275.01,299.0

1,663.5

20.0

94.9

4,021.073,632.0

6,103.061,916.021,707.040,209.0

1,792.0595.0

3,325.0320.0

6,517.0352.0

49,999.034,462.0

2,363.013,174.0

828.0

516.068.7

1,394.07.8

159.073,958.0

1,711.0

13,057.012,809.0

248.01,306.7

952.1409.1

21.51,219.3

507.8329.0

5.80.2

27.777.7

1,168.118.572.254.6

1,022.815.193.3

0.4

62,940.0

319.9

19.8

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005crop year.

2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.

Page 25: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 25 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005(Domestic Units) 1

Crop UnitYield Production

2004 2005 2004 2005

1,000 1,000

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain Corn for Silage Hay, All Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice 2

Rye Sorghum for Grain Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed 3

Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All 2

Upland 2

Amer-Pima 2

Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas 2

Dry Edible Beans 2

Dry Edible Peas 2

Lentils 2

Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint OilSweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3

Bu“Ton“““Bu“CwtBu“TonBu“““

LbTonBuLb“““BuLb

Bale““Ton“Lb

Cwt““““

Lb“““Cwt““““LbCwtLb

69.4160.4

17.62.553.472.0564.725.3

6,94226.969.813.543.243.538.043.2

1,618

20.3819

3,0571,3941,105

42.51,197

846835

1,42522.930.8

2,159

1,2281,4602,2491,271

1,22040,000

1,99092

391260314345401116176

235

279,25311,807,217

107,336157,774

75,38382,391

115,93515,065

230,8188,615

454,8994,763

2,158,2451,499,434

89,893568,918

1,339,5308,411.010,47156,290

4,261,70010,875

175,7653,140,9962,047,863

23,006.022,270.0

736.029,93229,295

883,171

26417,79911,419

4,182899

7,1006,000

55,203.97,146

456,3624,818

22,66318,858

410,0231,746

16,3995,200

4,658

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full2005 crop year.

2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.

Page 26: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 26 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005(Metric Units) 1

CropArea Planted Area Harvested

2004 2005 2004 2005

Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain 2

Corn for Silage Hay, All 3

Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain 2

Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All 3

Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All 3

Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All 3

Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 4

1,832,03032,751,560

1,653,160287,330

1,354,500558,470

3,029,510

24,149,47017,543,310

1,036,4105,569,750

350,060

211,65029,540

578,7103,520

70,82030,435,930

757,980

5,527,5005,426,490

101,010544,710

12,340548,070214,490139,620

483,2007,570

30,96023,920

420,760

39,420

1,608,24032,947,030

1,726,810

1,358,950

2,994,710

23,711,60016,840,360

1,055,4305,815,800

423,710

371,910

646,290

29,910,6401,112,900

5,590,7905,479,500

111,290525,690

673,200

8,090

38,410

1,627,26029,798,130

2,469,82025,056,790

8,784,61016,272,180

725,200240,790

1,345,590129,500

2,637,360142,450

20,234,10013,946,430

956,2805,331,390

335,080

208,82027,800

564,1403,160

64,35029,930,060

692,420

5,284,0405,183,670

100,360528,810385,310165,540

8,700493,440205,500133,140

2,35060

11,23031,440

472,7207,490

29,22022,100

413,9206,110

37,760150

25,471,190

129,440

8,010

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full2005 crop year.

2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.

Page 27: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 27 NASS, USDA

Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005(Metric Units) 1

CropYield Production

2004 2005 2004 2005

Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons

Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain Corn for Silage Hay, All 2

Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All 2

Winter Durum Other Spring

Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed 3

Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower

Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All 2

Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco

Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas 3

Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All 2

Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3

3.7410.0639.43

5.717.784.592.321.427.781.694.38

30.332.902.932.562.90

1.81

1.270.923.431.561.242.861.34

0.950.941.60

51.3568.97

2.42

1.381.642.521.42

1.3744.83

2.230.10

43.7929.1935.1838.7144.93

0.1319.70

26.37

6,080,020299,917,130

97,373,580143,130,170

68,386,31074,743,860

1,682,790341,670

10,469,730218,830

11,554,9704,320,920

58,737,80040,807,910

2,446,49015,483,410

607,6007,630,330

265,98025,530

1,933,0704,930

79,73085,483,900

928,900

5,008,9704,848,720

160,25027,153,85026,575,980

400,600

11,970807,350517,960189,690

40,780

3,2202,720

25,0403,240

20,700,230218,540

1,027,980855,380

18,598,330790

743,8502,360

211,280

1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full2005 crop year.

2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.

Page 28: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 28 NASS, USDA

Winter Weather Review

Highlights: Winter conditions varied dramatically in the West, ranging from periods of excessive precipitationacross southern California, the Great Basin, and much of the Southwest, to persistently dry weather across thenorthern half of the region. Southwestern storminess caused flooding and mudslides but eased or eradicated long-term drought. Meanwhile, drought expanded or intensified in the Northwest, where meager high-elevationsnowpacks were not expected to provide much spring and summer runoff. A similar pattern was observed on thePlains, where abundant precipitation across the southeastern half of the region contrasted with worsening droughton the northern High Plains. During the second half of January and much of February, the northern High Plains’winter wheat crop was exposed to occasional weather extremes. Farther east, the Midwestern winter featuredunusually wet weather in the southern and eastern Corn Belt but rather tranquil conditions in the upper MississippiValley. Stormy, often snowy, weather affected areas from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Farthersouth, however, drier-than-normal weather prevailed from the central Gulf Coast region to the southern AtlanticStates.

Above-normal temperatures were observed nearly nationwide. Winter readings generally ranged from 2 to 6degrees F above normal on the Plains and averaged as much as 8 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest. Near- to slightly below-normal temperatures were confined to parts of California, the Great Basin, the lower GreatLakes, and the Atlantic Coast States.

December: December featured some brief but historically snowy, cold weather across the South. Ironically, wetsnow—Deep South Texas’ first accumulation in more than a century—helped to insulate citrus, sugarcane, andwinter vegetables from a Christmas Day freeze. Meanwhile, warmer- and drier-than-normal weather prevailed inmost areas from the High Plains to the Mississippi River, providing generally favorable conditions foroverwintering grains. Somewhat wetter conditions were observed in the Great Lakes and Northeastern States,although much of the rain and snow fell early in the month. Farther south, a major snow and ice storm affectedparts of the Ohio Valley and interior South on December 22-23. Toward the end of December, stormy weatherreturned to California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, following nearly a month-long respite. The Westernprecipitation caused local flooding and mudslides, but padded high-elevation snow packs and further eased long-term drought. Farther north, however, snowpacks remained mostly below normal for this time of year across thenorthern Rockies and northern Intermountain West.

There were also some wild temperature swings in all parts of the United States. Although monthly temperaturesaveraged as much as 8 degrees F above normal on the northern Plains, readings briefly dipped to -20 degrees F orlower in some locations on December 23. Two days later, the high-pressure system responsible for Montana’s coldsnap reached the Deep South, where southern Texas noted a hard freeze (temperatures of 28 degrees F or lower). However, cool conditions were most persistent in the Southeast, where monthly temperatures averaged as much as4 degrees F below normal. Nevertheless, Florida’s winter agricultural areas avoided a significant freeze, althoughtemperatures flirted with the freezing mark (32 degrees F) in the State’s northern citrus belt on December 15. Meanwhile, monthly temperatures were mostly above normal in the West, despite cool spells in early December andagain after midmonth. The Northwest was especially warm, relative to normal.

January: In most sections of the United States, January’s weather exhibited two distinct characters. For example,the first 2 weeks of January featured warmth, record wetness, and widespread flooding in the Ohio and middleMississippi Valleys. Colder, drier weather followed, causing concerns in soft red winter wheat areas due tonumerous freeze-thaw cycles and heaving of saturated soils. Near-record to record warmth also prevailed acrossmuch of the South and East until a pattern-changing cold front swept offshore on January 14. Although only lightprecipitation accompanied sharply colder weather in the Southeast, a major snowstorm swept across the upperMidwestern, Great Lakes, and Northeastern States from January 21-23, preceded and followed by several lessserious storms. Unlike wheat fields in Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys, a thick blanket of snow protected thewheat crop from weather extremes in the lower Great Lakes region, including Michigan. Farther west, a late-monthreturn to wet weather (rain and snow) maintained adequate to locally excessive soil moisture reserves across thesouthern half of the Plains. In contrast, cold, occasionally snowy conditions on the northern Plains in early to mid-January were suddenly replaced by mild, windy weather. As a result, the northern High Plains’ wheat crop lost notonly its protective snow cover but some of its winter hardiness as well. The interior Northwest also experienced arapid change from cool, showery weather early in the month to unfavorable dryness and record warmth. Bymonth’s end, water-supply concerns mounted across the Northwest due to meager mountain snowpacks and alreadylow reservoir levels. Farther south, record-setting precipitation totals deluged California, the Great Basin, and muchof the Southwest through January 12, causing flash flooding and mudslides, but padding high-elevation snowpacks,improving spring and summer runoff prospects, and further easing the effects of long-term drought. Quieterweather prevailed west of the Rockies thereafter, although a pair of storms brought a brief return of showeryconditions to the Southwest during the last week of January.

Despite a mid- to late-month cooling trend, January temperatures averaged 4 to 8 degrees F above normal acrossmuch of the South. Slightly lower (near-normal) temperatures were observed along the southern Atlantic Coast.

Page 29: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 29 NASS, USDA

Unusually mild weather also prevailed in the Four Corners States, where monthly temperatures in a few locationsaveraged more than 10 degrees F above normal. In contrast, mid- to late-month warmth only partially offset abitterly cold start to the year on the northern Plains, where January temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees Fbelow normal. Meanwhile, temperatures varied sharply across the interior Northwest, ranging from as much as 6degrees F below normal in the snow-covered northern Great Basin to 4 degrees F above normal in several locationsfarther north. Elsewhere, temperatures averaged near normal in California, while Midwestern readings ranged from2 degrees F below normal in Michigan to as much as 8 degrees F above normal in the lower Ohio Valley. Some ofthe coldest weather, relative to normal, affected New England, where temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees Fbelow normal.

February: Continuing a winter-long trend, unfavorably dry weather in the Northwest contrasted with excessivewetness in southern California and parts of the Southwest, where periods of heavy precipitation further eased oreradicated long-term drought and sustained tremendous high-elevation snowpacks. Southwestern storminess alsocaused flash flooding and mudslides, although some large reservoirs remained low. Meanwhile, Northwesterndrought-related concerns included diminishing moisture reserves for dryland winter grains, meager mountainsnowpacks, and dismal spring and summer runoff prospects. A similar weather pattern prevailed on the Plains,where persistently dry weather across northern areas contrasted with widespread precipitation from southeasternNebraska and much of Kansas southward. On the drought-affected northern High Plains, winter wheat-relatedconcerns included soil moisture shortages and the crop’s exposure to occasional temperature and wind extremes. By month’s end, warm weather prompted winter wheat to begin breaking dormancy as far north as the centralPlains. Farther east, below-normal precipitation in parts of the Southeast promoted late-winter fieldwork butreduced topsoil moisture for pastures and winter grains. However, a pattern change toward month’s end producedwidespread rain and was especially beneficial across Florida’s peninsula, reducing the threat of wildfires and easingcitrus irrigation demands. Elsewhere, snow fell frequently during February across the Great Lakes andNortheastern States, while widespread showers maintained soggy conditions in feedlots and winter wheat fields inthe southern and eastern Corn Belt. However, the upper Midwest continued to experience a relatively mild winter,with above-normal temperatures and generally light snow.

Above-normal temperatures prevailed nearly nationwide during February, with the warmest weather—relative tonormal—affecting the upper Midwest (5 to 9 degrees F above normal). Colder-than-normal conditions (locally asmuch as 7 degrees F below normal) were confined to some valley locations across the interior Northwest, whilenear-normal readings were observed in parts of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and the Atlantic coastal plain.

Winter Agricultural Summary

Warm, dry conditions in the northern Great Plains prevented the accumulation of snow cover across most of theregion. Though temperatures averaged well above normal, periods of bitterly cold weather were unfavorable forunprotected winter wheat. Moreover, producers were concerned about the availability of soil moisture in thespring, which is heavily dependent upon snow melt. By contrast, precipitation was abundant in the southern GreatPlains. Soggy conditions continued to delay fieldwork, including the harvest of last year’s cotton crop in Texas,which was still not complete by the end of February.

In the Corn Belt, both temperatures and precipitation were above normal for the winter. In the southern and easternareas of the region, excessive rainfall caused widespread flooding in the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys. Combined with repetition of the freeze-thaw cycle, the persistent wetness caused soil heaving, particularly inlow-lying areas.

Much of the western Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to the Rio Grande, was blanketed with snow on Christmasmorning, for the first time in over 100 years in some locations. However, the winter agricultural area of southernTexas escaped freeze damage, as temperatures were below 28 degrees Fahrenheit for only a few hours. Throughthe remainder of the winter, above-normal temperatures prevailed along the western Gulf Coast, while in Florida,temperatures averaged below normal, though not low enough to damage citrus crops.

Across the remainder of the Southeast and Mississippi Delta, mild, dry weather prevailed through most of thewinter. However, periods of heavy rainfall toward the end of the season hindered field preparation and planting.

Heavy precipitation fell in the Southwest, causing persistent flooding in southern California, where over 25 inchesfell in some areas. However, the rain and snowfall eased long-term drought conditions, recharged reservoirs, andincreased high-elevation snowpacks. Further north, however, in the interior Pacific Northwest and northern RockyMountains, conditions were mostly warm and dry. Snow accumulation remained well below normal throughoutwinter, leaving winter wheat unprotected from occasional cold snaps and limiting the availability of moisture fromspring snowmelt.

Corn: Growers intend to plant 81.4 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2005, up 1 percent from 2004 and4 percent above 2003. If realized, this would be largest corn acreage since 1985 when 83.4 million acres were

Page 30: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 30 NASS, USDA

planted for all purposes. Expected acreage is up from last year throughout much of the Corn Belt and southernGreat Plains. However, growers in most States in the Delta, Southeast, and northern Great Plains intend to decreasetheir corn acreage as producers are switching to other more profitable crops due to low corn prices and high fueland fertilizer costs.

Corn farmers in the ten major corn producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri,Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) intend to plant 64.5 million acres, an increase of 1 percent from the63.6 million acres last year. Kansas is showing the largest increase as 3.40 million acres are intended to be planted,which is 300,000 acres above last year. Illinois farmers expect to plant a record high 12.0 million acres, an increaseof 250,000 acres from last year. South Dakota is the only major corn State showing a decrease from last year asproducers there expect to plant 250,000 fewer acres.

Sorghum: The 2005 intended sorghum area planted for all purposes is estimated at 7.40 million acres, down1 percent from last year. Sorghum acres declined from last year in seven States, but increased in ten States. Thelargest acreage declines are expected by growers in Kansas and Nebraska, which will combine for a decrease of460,000 acres. Parts of Kansas that had been in very dry conditions for several years received ample moisture thislast fall and winter. Due to the better moisture conditions, some Kansas growers are planning on switching to othercrops this year. The largest acreage increase is expected in Texas, where the intended sorghum area is 2.50 millionacres, up 13 percent from the previous year. Soil conditions are adequate across most of Texas due to plenty ofrainfall this fall and winter, but planting has been slowed in some areas due to wet field conditions. If the wet fieldconditions persist, some growers may change their planting intentions.

Oats: Acres seeded and to be seeded for the 2005 crop year are expected to total 4.27 million acres, up 4 percentfrom last year’s planted area. Acreage planted to oats is expected to increase or remain at the same level as 2004 inmost states across the Great Plains, except in Kansas, Montana, and Oklahoma. The largest increase of oat acreageis expected in North Dakota, which is up 8 percent from 2004. Iowa, New York, Texas, and Wyoming are eachexpecting an increase of 20,000 acres from last year.

Barley: Growers intend to plant 3.97 million acres for 2005, down 12 percent from last year and, if realized, thelowest since barley planted acreage estimates began in 1926. Expected acreage declined from last year in the4 largest barley-producing States. Of the top 10 barley States, Minnesota is the only State with increased plantingintentions. North Dakota growers expect to plant 1.20 million acres, 400,000 acres below 2004 and, if realized, thefewest planted acres on record. Acreage intentions in Montana and Washington are the lowest since 1953. Droughtconditions and an expected decrease in malting barley contracts are the main reasons for the decrease in plantingintentions.

Winter Wheat: Planted area for the 2005 crop is 41.6 million acres, down 4 percent from 2004, but virtuallyunchanged from the Winter Wheat Seedings report. Changes from the previous report were minor and mostlyoffsetting. Of the total, about 30.5 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.6 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and4.5 million acres are White Winter. Seeding began last August and advanced ahead of the 5-year average pace untilthe middle of October, when wet weather slowed progress. Nearly all of the U.S. acreage was seeded byDecember 1. Ample precipitation in most areas contributed to record high condition ratings throughout much of thefall.

Durum Wheat: Area seeded to Durum wheat is expected to total 2.61 million acres, up 2 percent from 2004. Planted area is up 100,000 acres in North Dakota, where growers expect to shift acres from other crops to wheat. This more than offsets acreage declines in all other States. In Idaho, which is new to the estimating program thisyear, growers intend to plant 10,000 acres. Unusually heavy rain in California hampered seeding activities duringFebruary.

Other Spring Wheat: Growers intend to plant 14.4 million acres this year, up 4 percent from 2004. Of the total,about 13.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Large increases in North Dakota, South Dakota, andMinnesota more than offset declines in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Montana. Growers in the Dakotas arereturning acreage to other spring wheat from barley, corn, and soybeans. Extremely dry conditions in the PNW areleading to lower intended acreage. Montana producers shifted acreage from other spring wheat to winter wheat.

Rice: Area intended for rice in 2005 is estimated at 3.36 million acres, up less than 1 percent from 2004 and up11 percent from 2003. Growers in California and Texas intend to plant fewer acres compared with last year, whilethe remaining producing States expect an increase in acreage from 2004.

Long grain intended acreage, representing 80 percent of the total, is up 4 percent from last year. Medium grainintended acreage is down 11 percent from 2004 and represents 19 percent of the total. Area intended for short grainvarieties declined 8 percent from 2004 and represents 1 percent of the total.

Page 31: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 31 NASS, USDA

Hay: Producers expect to harvest 62.9 million acres of all hay in 2005, up 2 percent from last year. The two Stateswith the largest expected increases are New York, which is up 470,000 acres from last year, and South Dakota,which is up 300,000 acres. Acreage in Texas and Oklahoma is expected to increase due to beneficial weatherconditions. A wet fall combined with a mild winter has allowed for adequate soil moisture and expectations of alarger hay crop in those States. Conversely, much of the Northwest has experienced an unusually dry winter withvery low snow-pack levels leading to reduced expectations for hay in that region.

Soybeans: Growers intend to plant an estimated 73.9 million acres in 2005, down 2 percent from the recordacreage planted in 2004.

Growers in 16 of the 31 soybean producing States intend to plant fewer acres this year, while producers in 11 Statesintend to plant more acres than in 2004. Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and West Virginia are unchanged fromlast year. The largest intended decrease in soybean acreage is in the Dakotas, where low soybean prices have somefarmers shifting to other crops. Producers in the Delta and Southeast States are more concerned with Asian soybeanrust than in other parts of the country. The expected rise in soybean production costs to combat the disease arepersuading some farmers in those regions to find alternatives. Acreage planted to soybeans in Louisiana is expectedto decrease 23 percent, partially due to the risks of Asian soybean rust.

Producers in the eleven major soybean growing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota,Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio) intend to plant 60.4 million acres, down 1 percentfrom last year. Illinois and Indiana farmers intend to plant 250,000 and 150,000 fewer soybean acres, respectively. Planted acreage is expected to increase from last year in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio.

Due to the discovery of Asian soybean rust in the U.S., questions were asked of farmers in soybean producingStates about their awareness of the disease and how it has affected their planting decisions. Of those intending toplant soybeans this year, 89 percent had seen, read, or heard at least some information about Asian soybean rust. Only 11 percent of those aware of the disease considered rust as a factor in making their 2005 soybean plantingdecisions, but 49 percent of these farm operators who intend to plant soybeans decreased acreage because of theadditional factor of rust in their decisions. The largest percentage of soybean farmers who decreased their acreagedue to the additional factor of Asian soybean rust were in the Delta and Southeast regions, where 63 percentdecreased acreage. For additional information by State, Region, and intended soybean acres planted, see pages 20 -23 of this report.

Peanuts: Producers intend to plant 1.60 million acres of peanuts in 2005, up 12 percent from last year. Of the nineproducing States, five intend to plant more acres than in 2004. Southeast growers (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, andSouth Carolina) intend to plant 1.18 million acres, up 18 percent from last year. In the Virginia-North Carolinaregion, producers intend to plant 130,000 acres, down 6 percent from 2004. Growers in the Southwest (NewMexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) intend to plant 292,000 acres, unchanged from last year.

Sunflower: Growers expect to plant a total of 2.75 million acres in 2005, up 47 percent from last year and the firstacreage increase since 1998. Area intended for oil type varieties, at 2.19 million acres, is up 43 percent from 2004,and the non-oil varieties, estimated at 565,000 acres, are up 66 percent from last year.

North Dakota sunflower growers intend to plant 1.26 million acres in 2005, up 380,000 from 2004, and growers inSouth Dakota intend to plant 600,000 acres, up 165,000 acres from the previous year. Acreage increases are alsoexpected in Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Texas.

Canola: Producers intend to plant 1.05 million acres in 2005, up 21 percent from 2004, the first increase in canolaacreage since 2000. Producers in North Dakota, the leading canola State, intend to plant 950,000, while producersin Minnesota and Montana expect to plant 45,000 and 23,000 acres, respectively.

Flaxseed: Producers expect to plant 919,000 acres in 2005, up 76 percent from last year. If realized, this would bethe largest planted area since 1979 when 922,000 acres were planted. Each of the four States in the estimatingprogram (Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota) are showing significant increases from 2004 asproducers are hoping to take advantage of high flaxseed prices. North Dakota growers intend to plant 850,000 acresin 2005, up 73 percent from 2004.

Cotton: The U.S. planted area for all cotton in 2005 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, up 1 percent from 2004. Upland cotton acreage totaled 13.5 million acres, also up 1 percent. Growers intend to increase American-Pimacotton planted area 10 percent from 2004, to 275,000 acres.

Upland growers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) planted3.83 million acres, up 12 percent from 2004. Farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi expect to plant 120,000 and140,000 more acres than last year, respectively.

Page 32: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 32 NASS, USDA

Producers in Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas intend to plant 6.08 million acres of upland, a 2 percentdecrease from last year. Planting intentions in Texas are 150,000 acres below 2004. In the Southeast (Alabama,Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia), farmers expect to plant 2.92 million acres,1 percent below 2004.

Upland planted acreage in Arizona and California is estimated at 710,000 acres, 11 percent below last year. California producers intend to plant 480,000 acres, 14 percent less than 2004.

Growers expect to plant 275,000 acres of American-Pima cotton. This is a 10 percent increase from last year’scrop. California shows the largest increase, planting 240,000 acres, a 12 percent increase from last year. Texasproducers are planning to increase planted acreage by 5 percent, while Arizona remained the same as last year. New Mexico growers intend to plant 10,000 acres, down 600 acres from a year ago. Factors such as wateravailability, the cost of irrigating, and prices of upland relative to American-Pima will impact the final plantingdecisions.

Sugarbeets: Area planted to sugarbeets for the 2005 crop year is expected to total 1.30 million acres, 3 percentbelow the 2004 planted acreage. Intended plantings decreased from last year in all States, except North Dakota andColorado. The largest declines in acreage were in Idaho, with 22,000 fewer acres than in 2004, and Michigan, with16,000 fewer acres. If realized, these would be the lowest planted acreage since 1988 for Idaho and since 1987 forMichigan. Lack of soil moisture across most sugarbeet-producing areas was the main reason for the decline inplanting intentions.

Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco area for harvest in 2005 is expected to be 319,860 acres, down 22 percent from both2004 and 2003. If realized, this will be the lowest harvested acreage on record. The previous low of 369,000 acresoccurred in 1868. Large decreases in flue-cured and light air-cured harvested acreage are expected as well asdecreases in dark-air cured and all cigar types. However, a slight increase in acres to be harvested is expected forfire-cured. Acreage this year will be heavily impacted by the elimination of the tobacco quota program and pricesupports as farmers adjust to the tobacco buyout.

Flue-cured tobacco, at 189,300 acres, is 17 percent below a year ago and down 19 percent from 2003. Flue-curedacreage accounts for 59 percent of this year’s expected total tobacco acreage. Acreage in North Carolina, theleading flue-cured State, is down 14 percent from last year. Harvested acreage is also expected to decline inVirginia, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina by 39 percent, 30 percent, 17 percent, and 15 percent, respectively.

Light air-cured tobacco types are down 30 percent from last year and 29 percent below 2003. Burley tobacco, at108,300 acres, is down 30 percent from a year ago and 29 percent below two years ago. Seven burley producingStates expect acres to decrease from last year. These States are Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Ohio, NorthCarolina, Missouri, and West Virginia which are down 31 percent, 24 percent, 25 percent, 20 percent, 45 percent,3 percent, and 46 percent, respectively. Pennsylvania tobacco farmers expect to begin growing burley in 2005, with2,400 acres. New opportunities for Pennsylvania growers are available due to the elimination of the tobacco quotaprogram. Pennsylvania’s southern Maryland type tobacco acres are estimated at 1,500, down 32 percent from lastyear but 15 percent above two years ago.

Fire-cured tobacco types, at 11,770 acres, are up 1 percent from 2004 and 5 percent above 2003. Kentuckyproducers expect acreage to increase 8 percent from last year while Tennessee growers expect no change in theiracreage.

Dark air-cured tobacco types, at 4,140 acres, are 2 percent below last year’s harvested acres but virtually unchangedfrom 2003. One sucker type tobacco, at 2,840 acres, and Green River type tobacco, at 1,300 acres, are bothunchanged from last year. Farmers in Virginia do not expect to grow sun-cured tobacco this year.

All cigar types, at 4,850 acres, are down 29 percent from last year and 37 percent below 2003. Acreage ofPennsylvania seedleaf, at 1,300 acres, is down 28 percent from last year. Connecticut and Massachusetts broadleafacreage, at 2,300, is down 3 percent from the 2004 crop. Expected harvested acres of Connecticut andMassachusetts shade-grown tobacco are estimated to be 1,250, up 5 percent from a year ago.

Dry Beans: Prospective 2005 planting of dry beans in the U.S. totals 1.66 million acres, up 23 percent from lastyear and 18 percent above 2 years ago. High prices for the 2004 crop and low inventories contributed to theexpected increase in planted acres. Thirteen States expect to plant more dry bean acres than a year ago and 3 Statesexpect planted acres to be unchanged, while acreage in Texas is expected to be down from 2004.

North Dakota farmers expect a 29 percent increase in dry bean acreage this year. Michigan's prospective acreage isup 24 percent. Nebraska growers expect a 33 percent increase, while Minnesota dry bean acreage is expected to goup 13 percent. South Dakota growers expect a 122 percent increase if current plans are realized. Colorado andWyoming producers expect planted acres to be up 20 percent, while prospective dry bean acres in Idaho rose

Page 33: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 33 NASS, USDA

19 percent. Acres in Kansas, Montana, New York, Utah, and Washington are also expected to be up. Acres inCalifornia, Oregon, and New Mexico are expected to be unchanged from 2004. Texas acres are expected todecrease 15 percent from last year due to good planting conditions for other crops.

Garbanzo beans have been planted in California but other varieties will not be planted until mid-May. Growers arewaiting for warmer and drier weather. Most States will wait until late April through June for dry bean planting. Water supplies in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington are low and growers are uncertain if they will be ableto plant. In Colorado, water supplies are better than in the last 3 years.

Sweet Potatoes: Growers intend to plant 94,900 acres of sweet potatoes in 2005, down 3 percent from last yearand 1 percent below 2003. This intended decrease in planted acreage is being influenced by high storageinventories. Acreage is expected to be lower than last year in 4 States, unchanged in 3, and higher in 2.

Transplant preparations are active in North Carolina, as most growers have planted their beds or have lined upsources for plants. North Carolina growers expect to decrease planted acres by 11 percent. Alabama growers planto lower planted acres by 4 percent. Mississippi and Louisiana planting intentions for sweet potatoes are up 13 and6 percent, respectively. Growers in New Jersey, South Carolina, and Virginia expect to plant the same as last year.

Planting intentions in California are down 3 percent from last year. Hotbed planting is underway in California. Growing conditions have been good, with ample rainfall reported. Texas growers also plan to decrease acres3 percent this year. Wet conditions may delay planting.

Page 34: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 34 NASS, USDA

Reliability of Acreage Data in this Report

Survey Procedures: The acreage estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted during the first 2 weeks ofMarch. The March Agricultural Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of over 83,000 farm operators selected froma list of producers that ensures all operations in the U.S. have a chance to be selected. These operators were contacted by mail,telephone, or personal interview to obtain information on crop acreage planned for the 2005 crop year.

Estimating Procedures: National, Regional, State, and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistencywith historical estimates. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural StatisticsBoard (ASB). Survey data are compiled to the National level and are reviewed at this level independently of each State’s review.Acreage estimates were based on survey data and the historical relationship of official estimates to the survey data. Revision Policy: Acreage estimates in the "Prospective Plantings" report will not be revised. These estimates are intended toreflect grower intentions as of the survey period. New acreage estimates will be made based on surveys conducted in June whencrop acreages have been established or planting intentions are firm. These new estimates will be published in the "Acreage"report scheduled for June 30, 2005. Winter wheat is an exception. Since winter wheat was seeded prior to the March survey, anychanges in estimates in this report are considered revisions. The estimate of the harvested acreage of winter wheat will bepublished on May 12, 2005, along with the first production forecast of the crop year.

Reliability: The survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that are common to allsurveys. Sampling errors represent the variability between estimates that would result if many different samples were surveyedat the same time. Sampling errors for major crops are generally between 1.0 and 3.0 percent, but they cannot be applied directlyto the acreage published in this report to determine confidence intervals because the official estimates represent a composite ofinformation from more than a single source.

Non-sampling errors cannot be measured directly. They may occur due to incorrect reporting and/or recording, data omissionsor duplications, and errors in processing. To minimize non-sampling errors, vigorous quality controls are used in the datacollection process and all data are carefully reviewed for consistency and reasonableness.

To assist users in evaluating the reliability of acreage estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measurebased on past performance, is computed. The deviations between the acreage estimates in this report and the final estimates areexpressed as a percentage of the final estimates. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period iscomputed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can bemade concerning expected differences in the current estimates relative to the final end-of-season estimates, assuming that factorsaffecting this year's estimates are not different from those influencing recent years.

For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the corn planted estimate is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3that the current corn acreage estimate will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.0 percent. Chances are 9 outof 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.5 percent.

Also, shown in the table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the difference between the "Prospective Plantings" plantedacreage estimates and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the intentions estimates and thefinal estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 1.16 million acres, ranging from 7,000 acres to 3.84 million acres. Theprospective plantings estimates have been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. This does not imply that theplanted estimate this year is likely to understate or overstate the final estimate.

Page 35: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 35 NASS, USDA

Reliability of Prospective Plantings Planted Acreage Estimates

CropRoot Mean

Square ErrorPercent

90Percent

ConfidenceInterval

20-Year Record ofDifferences Between Forecast

and Final Estimate

Thousand AcresQuantity

Number ofYears

Average Smallest Largest BelowFinal

AboveFinal

1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Number Number

CornSorghumOatsBarleyWinter WheatDurum WheatOther Spring WheatSoybeansUpland Cotton

2.07.87.74.81.27.36.02.03.8

3.513.613.3

8.32.0

12.510.3

3.56.7

1,164662604311423186835

1,094406

7312431

9121225

6

3,8442,4712,429

7601,630

5522,5432,582

945

710

459

12141310

1310161511

867

10

Page 36: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 36 NASS, USDA

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact foradditional information.

Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127

Field Crops SectionGreg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 720-7688Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621

Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops SectionJim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,

Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,

Strawberries (202) 720-2157

Page 37: Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315 50 18 330 1,250 920 450 28 10,000 530 180 160 660 1,728 160 1,050 5,470 1,850 14

ACCESS TO REPORTS!!

For your convenience, there are several ways to obtain NASS reports, data products, and services:

INTERNET ACCESS

All NASS reports are available free of charge on the worldwide Internet. For access, connect to theInternet and go to the NASS Home Page at: www.usda.gov/nass/. Select “Today’s Reports” orPublications and then Reports Calendar or Publications and then Search, by Title or Subject.

E-MAIL SUBSCRIPTION

All NASS reports are available by subscription free of charge direct to your e-mail address. Starting with the NASS Home Page at www.usda.gov/nass/, click on Publications, then click onthe Subscribe by E-mail button which takes you to the page describing e-mail delivery of reports. Finally, click on Go to the Subscription Page and follow the instructions.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

PRINTED REPORTS OR DATA PRODUCTS

CALL OUR TOLL-FREE ORDER DESK: 800-999-6779 (U.S. and Canada)Other areas, please call 703-605-6220 FAX: 703-605-6900

(Visa, MasterCard, check, or money order acceptable for payment.)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

ASSISTANCE

For assistance with general agricultural statistics or further information about NASS or its productsor services, contact the Agricultural Statistics Hotline at 800-727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m.ET, or e-mail: [email protected].

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination in all its programs andactivities on the basis of race, color, national origin, sex, religion, age, disability, political beliefs,sexual orientation, and marital or family status. (Not all prohibited bases apply to all programs.) Persons with disabilities who require alternative means for communication of program information(Braille, large print, audiotape, etc.) should contact USDA’s TARGET Center at 202-720-2600(voice and TDD).

To file a complaint of discrimination, write USDA, Director, Office of Civil Rights, Room 326-W,Whitten Building, 14th and Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20250-9410 or call202-720-5964 (voice and TDD). USDA is an equal opportunity provider and employer.