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Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315...
Transcript of Prospective Plantings - Cornell University · 2005. 3. 31. · 212 168 62,141 120 105 670 680 2,315...
Cr Pr 2-4 (3-05)
Washington, D.C.
ProspectivePlantings
Released March 31, 2005, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on Prospective Plantings call (202) 720-2127, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
Corn Planted Acreage Up 1 Percent from 2004Soybean Acreage Down 2 Percent
All Wheat Acreage Down 2 PercentAll Cotton Acreage Up 1 Percent
Corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 81.4 million acres, up 1 percent from 2004 and 4 percent above2003. If realized, this would be largest corn acreage since 1985. Expected acreage is up from last year throughoutmuch of the Corn Belt and southern Great Plains. However, growers in most States in the Delta, Southeast, andnorthern Great Plains intend to decrease their corn acreage as producers are switching to other more profitable cropsdue to low corn prices and high fuel and fertilizer costs.
Soybean producers intend to plant 73.9 million acres in 2005, down 2 percent from last year’s record high acreage. Of the 31 soybean producing States, growers in 16 States intend to plant fewer acres this year, while producers in11 States intend to plant more acres than in 2004. The largest acreage declines are in the Dakotas, where lowsoybean prices have some farmers shifting to other crops. Large declines in soybean acreage are also expected inthe Delta and Southeast States.
Due to the discovery of Asian soybean rust in the U.S., questions were asked of farmers in soybean producingStates about their awareness of the disease and how it has affected their planting decisions. For detailed results ofthis effort, see pages 20 - 23 of this report.
All wheat planted area is expected to total 58.6 million acres in 2005, down 2 percent from 2004. If realized, thiswould be the lowest planted acreage since 1972. Winter wheat planted area for the 2005 crop is 41.6 million acres,down 4 percent from 2004. Of the total, about 30.5 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.6 million acres are SoftRed Winter, and 4.5 million acres are White Winter. The 2005 other spring wheat planted acreage is estimated at14.4 million, up 4 percent from last year. Of the total, about 13.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Areaplanted to Durum wheat is intended to total 2.61 million acres, up 2 percent from the previous year.
All cotton plantings for 2005 are expected to total 13.8 million acres, 1 percent above last year. Upland acreage isexpected to total 13.5 million acres, also up 1 percent. Producers in Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Kansas,and Texas intend to decrease acreage from last year. Growers in all other cotton producing States intend to increaseplanted acreage. American-Pima cotton growers intend to increase their plantings 10 percent from 2004, to275,000 acres. The increase is primarily in California, where producers are intending to plant 25,000 more Pimaacres than last year.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 2 NASS, USDA
This report was approved on March 31, 2005.
Acting Secretary ofAgriculture
Mary Kirtley Waters
Agricultural Statistics BoardChairpersonRich Allen
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 3 NASS, USDA
Contents
Page
Grains & HayBarley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Hay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Oats . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Rice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Sorghum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Wheat, All . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Wheat, Durum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Wheat, Other Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10Wheat, Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
OilseedsCanola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Flaxseed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12Peanuts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Asian Rust Awareness by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions by State and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Asian Rust Awareness by Intended Planted Acreage and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions by Intended Planted Acreage and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Sunflower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar CropsCotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Sugarbeets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16Tobacco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Dry Beans, Peas & LentilsDry Edible Beans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Potatoes & Miscellaneous CropsSweet Potatoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Crop Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29Crop Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24Information Contacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36Reliability of Acreage Data in this Report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34Weather Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 4 NASS, USDA
Corn: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
ALAZARCACOCTDEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY
US
22047
365530
1,08030
17075
340190
11,2005,600
12,3002,9001,170
52028
48020
2,2507,200
5502,900
688,100
41580
1301,000
7401,4503,300
23051
1,4502
2404,400
7101,830
55100470130
483,750
85
78,603
22053
320540
1,20031
16070
335230
11,7505,700
12,7003,1001,210
42028
49020
2,2007,500
4602,950
708,250
41586
125980820
1,8003,350
25058
1,4002
3154,650
6801,830
5595
500170
483,600
90
80,930
21560
260560
1,20032
16065
270240
12,0005,800
12,8003,4001,290
39028
46020
2,1507,500
4003,100
718,400
31478
1201,000
7901,5003,400
27050
1,3502
3304,400
6901,950
5090
470150
503,700
85
81,413
98113
81104100103100
9381
104102102101110107
93100
94100
98100
87105101102
75939196
1029683
101108
8696
100105
95101107
91959488
104103
94
101 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 5 NASS, USDA
Sorghum: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
ALAZARCACODE 2
GAILKSKYLAMD 2
MSMONENMNCOKPASCSDTNTXVA 2
US
1017
22518
2702
55110
3,55033
1706
75215660140
18300
157
27045
3,2009
9,420
10206028
2802
4585
3,2001585
520
150550140
17270
127
25020
2,2105
7,486
5189026
260
55130
2,90022
100
30150390140
17280
139
25015
2,500
7,400
5090
1509393
122153
91147118
150100
71100100104108129100
75113
99 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Estimates discontinued in 2005.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 6 NASS, USDA
Oats: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
AL 3
CACOGAIDILINIAKSMEMIMNMOMTNENYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTXUTVA 3
WAWIWY
US
260100100120
6025
220140
2790
35030
120220
8555
620807060
14040
420625
65
35380
60
4,597
2407590905525
220120
3480
31026
105140
6555
490655050
13040
380680
60
20340
50
4,085
50250
75100
905020
240110
3280
3103590
1508555
530654545
14035
390700
601530
32070
4,267
104100111100
9180
1099294
100100135
86107131100108100
9090
10888
103103100
15094
140
104 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 3 Estimates began in 2005.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 7 NASS, USDA
Barley: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
AZCACODEIDKSKYMEMDMIMNMTNE 3
NVNJNYNCNDOHORPASDUTVAWAWIWY
US
32100
8525
75099
284315
1901,150
654
1520
2,0507
7075754575
3205590
5,348
40110
8029
68015
9234214
1301,000
643
1423
1,6005
7565705055
2504590
4,527
35100
6529
6502010224618
140950
43
2022
1,2005
7555704060
2005085
3,974
889181
10096
133111
96110129108
95
100100143
9675
100100
85100
80109
80111
94
88 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 3 Estimates discontinued in 2005.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 8 NASS, USDA
All Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
ALAZARCACODEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMOMTNENVNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWVWIWY
US
150119700870
2,6305020
3801,190
850460
2510,500
500155165680
1,877150960
5,4401,900
1231
500130530
8,6301,0606,7001,115
175200
3,078430
6,600177210
2,40012
212168
62,141
120105670680
2,3155018
3301,250
920450
2810,000
530180160660
1,728160
1,0505,4701,850
1428
490105600
8,195920
6,2001,000
140190
3,270400
6,300143210
2,3308
247160
59,674
12085
240590
2,6705020
3501,250
650360
2510,100
420130150650
1,975110700
5,3101,800
1728
490120590
9,010840
5,9001,020
180180
3,318270
5,800152200
2,3407
205170
58,592
100813687
115100111106100
718089
10179729498
11469679797
121100100114
98110
9195
102129
95101
6892
10695
1008883
106
98 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall. 2 Intended plantings for 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 9 NASS, USDA
Winter Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
ALAZARCACODEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMOMTNENVNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPASCSDTNTXUTVAWAWVWIWY
US
1504
700740
2,6005020
380760850460
2510,500
500155165680
25150960
1,9001,900
731
500130530130
1,0606,700
970175200
1,650430
6,600160210
1,85012
205160
45,384
1205
670560
2,3005018
330750920450
2810,000
530180160660
27160
1,0501,9001,850
628
490105600245920
6,200820140190
1,650400
6,300130210
1,8008
240150
43,350
1205
240500
2,6505020
350770650360
2510,100
420130150650
25110700
2,1501,800
828
490120590260840
5,900870180180
1,500270
5,800135200
1,9007
200160
41,613
100100
3689
115100111106103
718089
10179729498936967
11397
133100100114
98106
9195
106129
95916892
10495
1068883
107
96 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 10 NASS, USDA
Durum Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
AZCAID 3
MN 4
MTNDSD
US
115130
2640
2,00028
2,915
100120
1570
1,75020
2,561
809010
5601,850
18
2,608
8075
98106
90
102 1 Includes area planted in preceding fall in AZ and CA. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 3 Estimates began in 2005. 4 Estimates discontinued in 2005.
Other Spring Wheat: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
COIDMNMTNVNDORSDUTWAWIWY
US
30430
1,8502,900
56,500
1451,400
17550
78
13,842
15500
1,7003,000
86,200
1801,600
13530
710
13,763
20470
1,9502,600
96,900
1501,800
17440
510
14,371
13394
11587
113111
83113131
8371
100
104 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 11 NASS, USDA
Rice: Area Planted by Class, State,and United States, 2003-2005
Classand
State
Area Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
Long Grain AR CA LA MS MO TX
US
Medium Grain AR CA LA MO TX
US
Short Grain AR CA 2
US
All AR CA LA MS MO TX
US
1,3007
435235175180
2,332
165460
2011
647
142
43
1,466509455235176181
3,022
1,4057
525235195220
2,587
155540
1312
711
148
49
1,561595538235196222
3,347
1,4606
540260205210
2,681
110510
1011
632
144
45
1,571560550260206211
3,358
10486
103111105
95
104
719477
10050
89
10092
92
10194
102111105
95
100 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Includes sweet rice.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 12 NASS, USDA
All Hay: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Harvested
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
ALAZARCACOCTDEFLGAIDILINIAKSKYLAMEMDMAMIMNMSMOMTNENVNHNJNMNYNCNDOHOKORPARISCSDTNTXUTVTVAWAWVWIWY
US
780275
1,3401,6201,500
6313
255600
1,500775650
1,6003,2502,450
380144195
791,0502,075
7504,2502,4503,150
44052
120300
1,850778
2,9501,3502,8101,1001,650
9340
4,3002,0305,240
700235
1,280810545
2,1001,200
63,383
850275
1,4201,5501,520
6614
260600
1,480750660
1,6003,3502,340
370155215
881,1002,000
7204,3502,5002,800
42057
120330
1,270712
2,7301,1903,0601,1301,700
9330
3,9001,9355,350
715230
1,290790575
2,050990
61,916
865280
1,3001,6001,600
7014
265600
1,450750680
1,5003,3002,300
400160200
901,1001,950
7504,3502,5002,850
45057
120330
1,740710
2,8001,2503,2001,1301,750
9330
4,2001,9205,400
720230
1,290770560
2,0001,050
62,940
102102
92103105106100102100
98100103
949998
108103
93102100
98104100100102107100100100137100103105105100103100100108
99101101100100
979798
106
102 1 Intended area harvested in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Flaxseed: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
MNMTNDSD
US
817
56010
595
320
49010
523
935
85025
919
300175173250
176 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 13 NASS, USDA
Soybeans: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
ALARDEFLGAILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMONENJNYNCNDOHOKPASCSDTNTXVAWVWI
US
1702,920
18013
19010,300
5,45010,600
2,6001,250
760435
2,0007,5001,4405,0004,550
90140
1,4503,1504,300
270380430
4,2501,150
200500
161,720
73,404
2103,200
21019
2809,9505,550
10,2002,8001,3101,100
5002,0007,3001,6705,0004,800
105175
1,5303,7504,450
320430540
4,1501,210
290540
191,600
75,208
1603,100
18011
2209,7005,400
10,3002,9001,350
850450
2,0007,3001,6005,1004,800
100190
1,5503,2504,500
340440440
4,0501,220
310530
191,550
73,910
76978658799797
101104103
7790
100100
96102100
95109101
87101106102
8198
101107
98100
97
98 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Peanuts: Area Planted by Stateand United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
ALFLGANMNCOKSCTXVA
US
190.0125.0545.0
18.0101.0
37.019.0
275.034.0
1,344.0
200.0145.0620.0
17.0105.0
35.035.0
240.033.0
1,430.0
215.0155.0750.0
18.0105.0
34.055.0
240.025.0
1,597.0
108107121106100
97157100
76
112 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 14 NASS, USDA
Sunflower: Area Planted by Type, State,and United States, 2003-2005
VarietalType and
State
Area Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
Oil CO KS MN NE ND SD TX
Oth Sts 2 3
US
Non-Oil CO KS MN NE ND SD TX
Oth Sts 2 3
US
All CO KS MN NE ND SD TX
Oth Sts 2 3
US
95170
5551
1,060475
17
75
1,998
35233515
1503042
16
346
130193
9066
1,210505
59
91
2,344
90150
3036
720410
18
79
1,533
45213020
1602523
16
340
135171
6056
880435
41
95
1,873
130260
8555
1,000550
35
70
2,185
60406540
2605040
10
565
190300150
951,260
60075
80
2,750
144173283153139134194
143
133190217200163200174
166
141175250170143138183
147 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Other States include CA, GA, IL, LA, MI, MO, MT, NM, NY, OH, OK, PA, SC, UT, WA, WI, and WY, in 2003 and 2004, and only
include CA, IL, MI, MO, MT, OK, WI, and WY beginning in 2005. 3 2005 estimates carried forward from 2004. First 2005 estimate will be published in “Acreage” on June 30, 2005.
Canola: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
MNMT 2
ND
Oth Sts 3 4
US
57
970
55
1,082
35
780
50
865
4523
950
29
1,047
129
122
121 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Estimates began as part of the federal program in 2005. 3 Other States include AL, AZ, CA, GA, ID, IN, KS, MI, MT, NY, OR, PA, SC, SD, and WA, in 2003 and 2004, and only include ID,
MI, OR, and WA beginning in 2005. 4 2005 estimates carried forward from 2004. First 2005 estimate will be published in “Acreage” on June 30, 2005.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 15 NASS, USDA
Cotton: Area Planted by Type, State,and United States, 2003-2005
Typeand
State
Area Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
Upland AL AZ AR CA FL GA KS LA MS MO NM NC OK SC TN TX VA
US
Amer-Pima AZ CA NM TX
US
All AL AZ AR CA FL GA KS LA MS MO NM NC OK SC TN TX VA
US
525.0215.0980.0550.0
94.01,300.0
90.0525.0
1,110.0400.0
53.0810.0180.0220.0560.0
5,600.089.0
13,301.0
2.5150.0
6.120.0
178.6
525.0217.5980.0700.0
94.01,300.0
90.0525.0
1,110.0400.0
59.1810.0180.0220.0560.0
5,620.089.0
13,479.6
550.0240.0910.0560.0
89.01,290.0
85.0500.0
1,110.0380.0
68.0730.0220.0215.0530.0
5,850.082.0
13,409.0
3.0215.0
10.621.0
249.6
550.0243.0910.0775.0
89.01,290.0
85.0500.0
1,110.0380.0
78.6730.0220.0215.0530.0
5,871.082.0
13,658.6
560.0230.0980.0480.0
85.01,200.0
80.0620.0
1,250.0410.0
70.0760.0230.0230.0570.0
5,700.085.0
13,540.0
3.0240.0
10.022.0
275.0
560.0233.0980.0720.0
85.01,200.0
80.0620.0
1,250.0410.0
80.0760.0230.0230.0570.0
5,722.085.0
13,815.0
10296
10886969394
124113108103104105107108
97104
101
100112
94105
110
10296
10893969394
124113108102104105107108
97104
101 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 16 NASS, USDA
Sugarbeets: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005 1
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
CACOIDMIMNMTNENDOHORWAWY
US
50.828.6
208.0179.0492.0
51.745.3
259.02.0
10.04.0
35.0
1,365.4
49.536.0
195.0165.0486.0
53.749.8
256.01.8
13.03.8
36.4
1,346.0
49.038.0
173.0149.0484.0
52.049.0
259.00.07.03.0
36.0
1,299.0
99106
8990
1009798
101
547999
97 1 Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except CA. In CA, relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central CA
and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern CA. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Tobacco: Area Harvested by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Harvested
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
Acres Acres Acres Percent
CTFLGAIN 2
KYMD 2
MAMONCOHPASCTNVAWVWI 2
US
2,1804,400
27,0004,200
111,6501,1001,2501,400
159,7005,3003,700
30,00031,14025,110
1,2001,820
411,150
2,3404,000
23,0004,200
114,8001,1001,2201,450
156,5005,6004,000
27,00031,26029,790
1,3001,500
409,060
2,3002,800
19,000
82,200
1,2501,400
133,3004,5005,200
23,00025,26018,950
700
319,860
987083
72
102978580
13085816454
78 1 Intended area harvested in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Estimates discontinued in 2005.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 17 NASS, USDA
Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State,and United States, 2003-2005
Class and TypeArea Harvested
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
Acres Acres Acres Percent
Class 1, Flue-cured Type 11, Old Belts NC VA US Type 12, Eastern NC Belt NC Type 13, NC Border & SC Belt NC SC US Type 14, GA-FL Belt FL GA US Total 11-14Class 2, Fire-cured Type 21, VA Belt VA Type 22, Eastern District KY TN US Type 23, Western District KY TN US Total 21-23Class 3, Air-cured Class 3A, Light Air-cured Type 31, Burley IN 2
KY MO NC OH PA 3
TN VA WV US Type 32, Southern MD Belt MD 2
PA US Total 31-32
40,00018,00058,000
94,000
20,00030,00050,000
4,40027,00031,400
233,400
550
2,6005,2007,800
2,500400
2,90011,250
4,200103,000
1,4005,7005,300
25,0006,5001,200
152,300
1,1001,3002,400
154,700
43,00023,00066,000
89,000
19,40027,00046,400
4,00023,00027,000
228,400
720
2,7005,3008,000
2,500420
2,92011,640
4,200106,000
1,4505,1005,600
25,0006,0001,300
154,650
1,1002,2003,300
157,950
31,00014,00045,000
83,000
16,50023,00039,500
2,80019,00021,800
189,300
450
3,0005,3008,300
2,600420
3,02011,770
73,0001,4002,8004,5002,400
19,0004,500
700108,300
1,5001,500
109,800
726168
93
858585
70838183
63
111100104
104100103101
69975580
76755470
684570
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 18 NASS, USDA
Tobacco: Area Harvested by Class, Type, State,and United States, 2003-2005 (continued)
Class and TypeArea Harvested
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
Acres Acres Acres Percent
Class 3, Air-curedClass 3B, Dark Air-cured Type 35, One Sucker Belt KY TN US Type 36, Green River Belt KY Type 37, VA Sun-cured Belt VA 4
Total 35-37Class 4, Cigar Filler Type 41, PA Seedleaf PAClass 5, Cigar Binder Class 5A, CT Valley Binder Type 51, CT Valley Broadleaf CT MA US Class 5B, WI Binder Type 54, Southern WI WI 2
Type 55, Northern WI WI 2
Total 54-55 Total 51-55Class 6, Cigar Wrapper Type 61, CT Valley Shade-grown CT MA USAll Cigar Types Total 41-61
All Tobacco
2,300540
2,840
1,250
604,150
2,400
1,400970
2,370
1,400
4201,8204,190
780280
1,060
7,650
411,150
2,300540
2,840
1,300
704,210
1,800
1,450920
2,370
1,100
4001,5003,870
890300
1,190
6,860
409,060
2,300540
2,840
1,300
4,140
1,300
1,350950
2,300
2,300
950300
1,250
4,850
319,860
100100100
100
98
72
93103
97
59
107100105
71
78 1 Intended area harvested in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 2 Estimates discontinued in 2005. 3 Estimates began in 2005. 4 No sun-cured tobacco is expected to be harvested in 2005.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 19 NASS, USDA
Dry Edible Beans: Area Planted by Stateand United States, 2003-2005 1
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 2 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
CACOIDKSMIMNMTNENMNYNDORSDTXUTWAWI 3
WY
US
77.080.075.012.0
170.0115.0
13.0155.0
10.025.0
540.07.08.0
50.05.6
27.56.0
30.0
1,406.1
60.075.080.0
9.0190.0115.0
13.0120.0
6.024.0
560.08.09.0
20.05.3
30.05.0
25.0
1,354.3
60.090.095.0
9.5235.0130.0
14.0160.0
6.028.0
720.08.0
20.017.0
6.035.0
30.0
1,663.5
100120119106124113108133100117129100222
85113117
120
123 1 Excludes beans grown for garden seed. 2 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers. 3 Estimates discontinued in 2005.
Sweet Potatoes: Area Planted by State and United States, 2003-2005
StateArea Planted
2003 2004 2005 1 2005/2004
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Percent
ALCALAMSNJNCSCTXVA
US
2.710.719.014.0
1.143.0
1.43.40.5
95.8
2.811.516.016.0
1.245.0
1.03.50.4
97.4
2.711.217.018.0
1.240.0
1.03.40.4
94.9
9697
106113100
89100
97100
97 1 Intended plantings in 2005 as indicated by reports from farmers.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 20 NASS, USDA
Asian Soybean Rust
The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts the March Agricultural Survey in all States each year. Randomly selected farmers across the United States were asked what they intend to plant during the upcominggrowing season for a number of crops, including soybeans. Due to the discovery of Asian soybean rust in theUnited States and the heightened speculation of how growers would react to the fast-spreading, yield-reducingdisease, questions were included in the March Agricultural Survey for the 31 soybean-producing States to measurefarmer awareness of Asian soybean rust and how its discovery has affected their planting decisions for the2005 crop.
Results of the Asian soybean rust questions by State are included in the following tables, along with results by acresintended to be planted for 2005 and Region.
These survey results are subject to sampling variability because all operations planting soybeans are not included inthe sample of over 68,000. The variability for the 31 soybean-producing States, as measured by the relativestandard error at the U.S. level, is approximately 2.4 percent for farmer awareness, 4.6 percent for whether Asianrust was a factor in the planting decisions, and 4.3 percent for their change in planting intentions. This means thatchances are approximately 95 out of 100 that survey estimates will be within plus or minus 4.8 percent for farmerawareness, 9.2 percent for whether Asian rust was a factor in the planting decisions, and 8.6 percent for theirchange in planting intentions.
Soybeans: Asian Rust Awareness by State and United States,Percent of All Farms and Farms Reporting Soybean Intentions, March 2005
State
Have you seen, read, or heard any information about Asian Rust?
All Farms Farms Reporting Soybean Intentions
Yes No Don’t Know Yes No Don’t Know
Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent
ALARDEFLGAILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMONENJNYNCNDOHOKPASCSDTNTXVAWVWI
US
323822
3308962876135523536594262863322376048243438762615212863
43
5858659770
932
63264255361335731136776633239746658207176786526
51
104
13 * *26771
2312
38171 *2 *8
132 *443917
11
6
91885972909881948965919193828893968675849692708782958569869178
89
910
32510
218
28
29496
1312
63
122316
45
291218
59
2814
58
8
*2
383 * *14365 *15 *1122 * *311 * *63 *4
14
3
* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 21 NASS, USDA
Soybeans: Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions for All FarmOperators who are Aware of Rust by State, Region, and United States
March 2005
State andRegion 1
Was Asian Rust a factor in your planting intentions?
YesIf so, how did your intentions change?
Increase Decrease No Change
Percent Percent Percent Percent
ALARDEFLGAILINIAKSKYLAMDMIMNMSMONENJNYNCNDOHOKPASCSDTNTXVAWVWI
NortheastGreat Lake StatesCorn BeltNorthern PlainsAppalachianSoutheastDelta StatesSouthern Plains
US
7696
1012
885388773584276624
13862217
47874352
6
25 * *347
104233
1213
38
17 *
24 *871
1915174
124
1310
710
1234
7
57595287505848495648754932567628435626515033544379716669593875
4458475456617063
53
41364813473845414050224856312164404450494260453820243324375021
4332463643372733
40
* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1 Regions consist of the following States: Appalachian: KY, NC, TN, VA, WV; Corn Belt: IA, IL, IN, MO, OH; Delta States: AR, LA, MS;
Great Lake States: MI, MN, WI; Northeast: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA; Northern Plains: KS, NE, ND, SD; Southeast: AL, FL, GA, SC; SouthernPlains: OK, TX.
Soybeans: Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions for Soybean FarmOperators who are Aware of Rust by Region and United States
March 2005
Region 1
Was Asian Rust a factor in your planting intentions?
YesIf so, how did your intentions change?
Increase Decrease No Change
Percent Percent Percent Percent
NortheastGreat Lake StatesCorn BeltNorthern PlainsAppalachianSoutheastDelta StatesSouthern Plains
US
129
101113291915
11
1614
712
2456
9
4445474855636355
49
4041464043333239
42 1 Regions consist of the following States: Appalachian: KY, NC, TN, VA, WV; Corn Belt: IA, IL, IN, MO, OH; Delta States: AR, LA, MS;
Great Lake States: MI, MN, WI; Northeast: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA; Northern Plains: KS, NE, ND, SD; Southeast: AL, FL, GA, SC; SouthernPlains: OK, TX.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 22 NASS, USDA
Soybeans: Asian Rust Awareness by Intended Planted Acreage, Region, andUnited States, Percent of Farms Reporting Soybean Intentions, March 2005
Soybean AcresIntended and
Region 1
Have you seen, read, or heardany information about Asian Rust?
Yes No Don’t Know
Percent Percent Percent
1-99 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
100-249 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
250-499 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
500-999 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
1000 Acres & Over Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
8073868768807453
80
9594969594958187
95
9994979890979785
96
9798999898989792
98
8595999897969693
97
1517111028192546
15
532345
1110
3
13129328
2
21121136
1
63123337
2
510
334111
5
*3222 *83
2
*32 *1 *17
2
11 * *11 *2
1
92 * * *11 *
1
* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1 Regions consist of the following States: Appalachian: KY, NC, TN, VA, WV; Corn Belt: IA, IL, IN, MO, OH; Delta States: AR, LA,
MS; Great Lake States: MI, MN, WI; Northeast: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA; Northern Plains: KS, NE, ND, SD; Southeast: AL, FL, GA,SC; Southern Plains: OK, TX.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 23 NASS, USDA
Soybeans: Asian Rust’s Impact on Planting Intentions for Operators whoIntend to Plant Soybeans and are Aware of
Rust by Intended Planted Acreage, Region, and United States, March 2005
Soybean AcresIntended and
Region 1
Was Asian Rust a factor in your planting intentions?
YesIf so, how did your intentions change?
Increase Decrease No Change
Percent Percent Percent Percent
1-99 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
100-249 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
250-499 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
500-999 Acres Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
1000 Acres & Over Northeast Great Lake States Corn Belt Northern Plains Appalachian Southeast Delta States Southern Plains
US
11789
1224
812
9
1511131314372518
13
159
111117362425
12
13151011113719
7
12
347
131010311611
12
2115
8814 * *
9
14161016
113
14
11
*848 *
144 *
5
481
118 *8
22
6
*19102617 *5 *
12
4239424855538371
46
5246443857746375
46
6043596854636716
58
1963455044795831
51
1534574060745533
51
3746504444431729
45
3438464642253411
43
4049372446232984
37
7729543948213447
43
8547333423264067
37
* Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent. 1 Regions consist of the following States: Appalachian: KY, NC, TN, VA, WV; Corn Belt: IA, IL, IN, MO, OH; Delta States: AR, LA,
MS; Great Lake States: MI, MN, WI; Northeast: DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA; Northern Plains: KS, NE, ND, SD; Southeast: AL, FL, GA,SC; Southern Plains: OK, TX.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 24 NASS, USDA
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005(Domestic Units) 1
CropArea Planted Area Harvested
2004 2005 2004 2005
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres
Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain 2
Corn for Silage Hay, All Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain 2
Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All Winter Durum Other Spring
Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas
Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3
4,527.080,930.0
4,085.0710.0
3,347.01,380.07,486.0
59,674.043,350.0
2,561.013,763.0
865.0
523.073.0
1,430.08.7
175.075,208.0
1,873.0
13,658.613,409.0
249.61,346.0
30.51,354.3
530.0345.0
1,194.018.776.559.1
1,039.7
97.4
3,974.081,413.0
4,267.0
3,358.0
7,400.0
58,592.041,613.0
2,608.014,371.0
1,047.0
919.0
1,597.0
73,910.02,750.0
13,815.013,540.0
275.01,299.0
1,663.5
20.0
94.9
4,021.073,632.0
6,103.061,916.021,707.040,209.0
1,792.0595.0
3,325.0320.0
6,517.0352.0
49,999.034,462.0
2,363.013,174.0
828.0
516.068.7
1,394.07.8
159.073,958.0
1,711.0
13,057.012,809.0
248.01,306.7
952.1409.1
21.51,219.3
507.8329.0
5.80.2
27.777.7
1,168.118.572.254.6
1,022.815.193.3
0.4
62,940.0
319.9
19.8
1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2005crop year.
2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Area is total acres in crop, not harvested acreage.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 25 NASS, USDA
Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005(Domestic Units) 1
Crop UnitYield Production
2004 2005 2004 2005
1,000 1,000
Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain Corn for Silage Hay, All Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice 2
Rye Sorghum for Grain Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All Winter Durum Other Spring
Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed 3
Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All 2
Upland 2
Amer-Pima 2
Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas 2
Dry Edible Beans 2
Dry Edible Peas 2
Lentils 2
Wrinkled Seed Peas 3
Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint OilSweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3
Bu“Ton“““Bu“CwtBu“TonBu“““
LbTonBuLb“““BuLb
Bale““Ton“Lb
Cwt““““
Lb“““Cwt““““LbCwtLb
69.4160.4
17.62.553.472.0564.725.3
6,94226.969.813.543.243.538.043.2
1,618
20.3819
3,0571,3941,105
42.51,197
846835
1,42522.930.8
2,159
1,2281,4602,2491,271
1,22040,000
1,99092
391260314345401116176
235
279,25311,807,217
107,336157,774
75,38382,391
115,93515,065
230,8188,615
454,8994,763
2,158,2451,499,434
89,893568,918
1,339,5308,411.010,47156,290
4,261,70010,875
175,7653,140,9962,047,863
23,006.022,270.0
736.029,93229,295
883,171
26417,79911,419
4,182899
7,1006,000
55,203.97,146
456,3624,818
22,66318,858
410,0231,746
16,3995,200
4,658
1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full2005 crop year.
2 Yield in pounds. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 26 NASS, USDA
Crop Summary: Area Planted and Harvested, United States, 2004-2005(Metric Units) 1
CropArea Planted Area Harvested
2004 2005 2004 2005
Hectares Hectares Hectares Hectares
Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain 2
Corn for Silage Hay, All 3
Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain 2
Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All 3
Winter Durum Other Spring
Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All 3
Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas
Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All 3
Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 4
1,832,03032,751,560
1,653,160287,330
1,354,500558,470
3,029,510
24,149,47017,543,310
1,036,4105,569,750
350,060
211,65029,540
578,7103,520
70,82030,435,930
757,980
5,527,5005,426,490
101,010544,710
12,340548,070214,490139,620
483,2007,570
30,96023,920
420,760
39,420
1,608,24032,947,030
1,726,810
1,358,950
2,994,710
23,711,60016,840,360
1,055,4305,815,800
423,710
371,910
646,290
29,910,6401,112,900
5,590,7905,479,500
111,290525,690
673,200
8,090
38,410
1,627,26029,798,130
2,469,82025,056,790
8,784,61016,272,180
725,200240,790
1,345,590129,500
2,637,360142,450
20,234,10013,946,430
956,2805,331,390
335,080
208,82027,800
564,1403,160
64,35029,930,060
692,420
5,284,0405,183,670
100,360528,810385,310165,540
8,700493,440205,500133,140
2,35060
11,23031,440
472,7207,490
29,22022,100
413,9206,110
37,760150
25,471,190
129,440
8,010
1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full2005 crop year.
2 Area planted for all purposes. 3 Total may not add due to rounding. 4 Area is total hectares in crop, not harvested hectares.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 27 NASS, USDA
Crop Summary: Yield and Production, United States, 2004-2005(Metric Units) 1
CropYield Production
2004 2005 2004 2005
Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
Grains & Hay Barley Corn for Grain Corn for Silage Hay, All 2
Alfalfa All Other Oats Proso Millet Rice Rye Sorghum for Grain Sorghum for Silage Wheat, All 2
Winter Durum Other Spring
Oilseeds Canola Cottonseed 3
Flaxseed Mustard Seed Peanuts Rapeseed Safflower Soybeans for Beans Sunflower
Cotton, Tobacco & Sugar Crops Cotton, All 2
Upland Amer-Pima Sugarbeets Sugarcane Tobacco
Dry Beans, Peas & Lentils Austrian Winter Peas Dry Edible Beans Dry Edible Peas Lentils Wrinkled Seed Peas 3
Potatoes & Misc. Coffee (HI) Ginger Root (HI) Hops Peppermint Oil Potatoes, All 2
Winter Spring Summer Fall Spearmint Oil Sweet Potatoes Taro (HI) 3
3.7410.0639.43
5.717.784.592.321.427.781.694.38
30.332.902.932.562.90
1.81
1.270.923.431.561.242.861.34
0.950.941.60
51.3568.97
2.42
1.381.642.521.42
1.3744.83
2.230.10
43.7929.1935.1838.7144.93
0.1319.70
26.37
6,080,020299,917,130
97,373,580143,130,170
68,386,31074,743,860
1,682,790341,670
10,469,730218,830
11,554,9704,320,920
58,737,80040,807,910
2,446,49015,483,410
607,6007,630,330
265,98025,530
1,933,0704,930
79,73085,483,900
928,900
5,008,9704,848,720
160,25027,153,85026,575,980
400,600
11,970807,350517,960189,690
40,780
3,2202,720
25,0403,240
20,700,230218,540
1,027,980855,380
18,598,330790
743,8502,360
211,280
1 Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full2005 crop year.
2 Production may not add due to rounding. 3 Yield is not estimated.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 28 NASS, USDA
Winter Weather Review
Highlights: Winter conditions varied dramatically in the West, ranging from periods of excessive precipitationacross southern California, the Great Basin, and much of the Southwest, to persistently dry weather across thenorthern half of the region. Southwestern storminess caused flooding and mudslides but eased or eradicated long-term drought. Meanwhile, drought expanded or intensified in the Northwest, where meager high-elevationsnowpacks were not expected to provide much spring and summer runoff. A similar pattern was observed on thePlains, where abundant precipitation across the southeastern half of the region contrasted with worsening droughton the northern High Plains. During the second half of January and much of February, the northern High Plains’winter wheat crop was exposed to occasional weather extremes. Farther east, the Midwestern winter featuredunusually wet weather in the southern and eastern Corn Belt but rather tranquil conditions in the upper MississippiValley. Stormy, often snowy, weather affected areas from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Farthersouth, however, drier-than-normal weather prevailed from the central Gulf Coast region to the southern AtlanticStates.
Above-normal temperatures were observed nearly nationwide. Winter readings generally ranged from 2 to 6degrees F above normal on the Plains and averaged as much as 8 degrees F above normal in the upper Midwest. Near- to slightly below-normal temperatures were confined to parts of California, the Great Basin, the lower GreatLakes, and the Atlantic Coast States.
December: December featured some brief but historically snowy, cold weather across the South. Ironically, wetsnow—Deep South Texas’ first accumulation in more than a century—helped to insulate citrus, sugarcane, andwinter vegetables from a Christmas Day freeze. Meanwhile, warmer- and drier-than-normal weather prevailed inmost areas from the High Plains to the Mississippi River, providing generally favorable conditions foroverwintering grains. Somewhat wetter conditions were observed in the Great Lakes and Northeastern States,although much of the rain and snow fell early in the month. Farther south, a major snow and ice storm affectedparts of the Ohio Valley and interior South on December 22-23. Toward the end of December, stormy weatherreturned to California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest, following nearly a month-long respite. The Westernprecipitation caused local flooding and mudslides, but padded high-elevation snow packs and further eased long-term drought. Farther north, however, snowpacks remained mostly below normal for this time of year across thenorthern Rockies and northern Intermountain West.
There were also some wild temperature swings in all parts of the United States. Although monthly temperaturesaveraged as much as 8 degrees F above normal on the northern Plains, readings briefly dipped to -20 degrees F orlower in some locations on December 23. Two days later, the high-pressure system responsible for Montana’s coldsnap reached the Deep South, where southern Texas noted a hard freeze (temperatures of 28 degrees F or lower). However, cool conditions were most persistent in the Southeast, where monthly temperatures averaged as much as4 degrees F below normal. Nevertheless, Florida’s winter agricultural areas avoided a significant freeze, althoughtemperatures flirted with the freezing mark (32 degrees F) in the State’s northern citrus belt on December 15. Meanwhile, monthly temperatures were mostly above normal in the West, despite cool spells in early December andagain after midmonth. The Northwest was especially warm, relative to normal.
January: In most sections of the United States, January’s weather exhibited two distinct characters. For example,the first 2 weeks of January featured warmth, record wetness, and widespread flooding in the Ohio and middleMississippi Valleys. Colder, drier weather followed, causing concerns in soft red winter wheat areas due tonumerous freeze-thaw cycles and heaving of saturated soils. Near-record to record warmth also prevailed acrossmuch of the South and East until a pattern-changing cold front swept offshore on January 14. Although only lightprecipitation accompanied sharply colder weather in the Southeast, a major snowstorm swept across the upperMidwestern, Great Lakes, and Northeastern States from January 21-23, preceded and followed by several lessserious storms. Unlike wheat fields in Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys, a thick blanket of snow protected thewheat crop from weather extremes in the lower Great Lakes region, including Michigan. Farther west, a late-monthreturn to wet weather (rain and snow) maintained adequate to locally excessive soil moisture reserves across thesouthern half of the Plains. In contrast, cold, occasionally snowy conditions on the northern Plains in early to mid-January were suddenly replaced by mild, windy weather. As a result, the northern High Plains’ wheat crop lost notonly its protective snow cover but some of its winter hardiness as well. The interior Northwest also experienced arapid change from cool, showery weather early in the month to unfavorable dryness and record warmth. Bymonth’s end, water-supply concerns mounted across the Northwest due to meager mountain snowpacks and alreadylow reservoir levels. Farther south, record-setting precipitation totals deluged California, the Great Basin, and muchof the Southwest through January 12, causing flash flooding and mudslides, but padding high-elevation snowpacks,improving spring and summer runoff prospects, and further easing the effects of long-term drought. Quieterweather prevailed west of the Rockies thereafter, although a pair of storms brought a brief return of showeryconditions to the Southwest during the last week of January.
Despite a mid- to late-month cooling trend, January temperatures averaged 4 to 8 degrees F above normal acrossmuch of the South. Slightly lower (near-normal) temperatures were observed along the southern Atlantic Coast.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 29 NASS, USDA
Unusually mild weather also prevailed in the Four Corners States, where monthly temperatures in a few locationsaveraged more than 10 degrees F above normal. In contrast, mid- to late-month warmth only partially offset abitterly cold start to the year on the northern Plains, where January temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees Fbelow normal. Meanwhile, temperatures varied sharply across the interior Northwest, ranging from as much as 6degrees F below normal in the snow-covered northern Great Basin to 4 degrees F above normal in several locationsfarther north. Elsewhere, temperatures averaged near normal in California, while Midwestern readings ranged from2 degrees F below normal in Michigan to as much as 8 degrees F above normal in the lower Ohio Valley. Some ofthe coldest weather, relative to normal, affected New England, where temperatures averaged as much as 4 degrees Fbelow normal.
February: Continuing a winter-long trend, unfavorably dry weather in the Northwest contrasted with excessivewetness in southern California and parts of the Southwest, where periods of heavy precipitation further eased oreradicated long-term drought and sustained tremendous high-elevation snowpacks. Southwestern storminess alsocaused flash flooding and mudslides, although some large reservoirs remained low. Meanwhile, Northwesterndrought-related concerns included diminishing moisture reserves for dryland winter grains, meager mountainsnowpacks, and dismal spring and summer runoff prospects. A similar weather pattern prevailed on the Plains,where persistently dry weather across northern areas contrasted with widespread precipitation from southeasternNebraska and much of Kansas southward. On the drought-affected northern High Plains, winter wheat-relatedconcerns included soil moisture shortages and the crop’s exposure to occasional temperature and wind extremes. By month’s end, warm weather prompted winter wheat to begin breaking dormancy as far north as the centralPlains. Farther east, below-normal precipitation in parts of the Southeast promoted late-winter fieldwork butreduced topsoil moisture for pastures and winter grains. However, a pattern change toward month’s end producedwidespread rain and was especially beneficial across Florida’s peninsula, reducing the threat of wildfires and easingcitrus irrigation demands. Elsewhere, snow fell frequently during February across the Great Lakes andNortheastern States, while widespread showers maintained soggy conditions in feedlots and winter wheat fields inthe southern and eastern Corn Belt. However, the upper Midwest continued to experience a relatively mild winter,with above-normal temperatures and generally light snow.
Above-normal temperatures prevailed nearly nationwide during February, with the warmest weather—relative tonormal—affecting the upper Midwest (5 to 9 degrees F above normal). Colder-than-normal conditions (locally asmuch as 7 degrees F below normal) were confined to some valley locations across the interior Northwest, whilenear-normal readings were observed in parts of the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and the Atlantic coastal plain.
Winter Agricultural Summary
Warm, dry conditions in the northern Great Plains prevented the accumulation of snow cover across most of theregion. Though temperatures averaged well above normal, periods of bitterly cold weather were unfavorable forunprotected winter wheat. Moreover, producers were concerned about the availability of soil moisture in thespring, which is heavily dependent upon snow melt. By contrast, precipitation was abundant in the southern GreatPlains. Soggy conditions continued to delay fieldwork, including the harvest of last year’s cotton crop in Texas,which was still not complete by the end of February.
In the Corn Belt, both temperatures and precipitation were above normal for the winter. In the southern and easternareas of the region, excessive rainfall caused widespread flooding in the Ohio and middle Mississippi Valleys. Combined with repetition of the freeze-thaw cycle, the persistent wetness caused soil heaving, particularly inlow-lying areas.
Much of the western Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to the Rio Grande, was blanketed with snow on Christmasmorning, for the first time in over 100 years in some locations. However, the winter agricultural area of southernTexas escaped freeze damage, as temperatures were below 28 degrees Fahrenheit for only a few hours. Throughthe remainder of the winter, above-normal temperatures prevailed along the western Gulf Coast, while in Florida,temperatures averaged below normal, though not low enough to damage citrus crops.
Across the remainder of the Southeast and Mississippi Delta, mild, dry weather prevailed through most of thewinter. However, periods of heavy rainfall toward the end of the season hindered field preparation and planting.
Heavy precipitation fell in the Southwest, causing persistent flooding in southern California, where over 25 inchesfell in some areas. However, the rain and snowfall eased long-term drought conditions, recharged reservoirs, andincreased high-elevation snowpacks. Further north, however, in the interior Pacific Northwest and northern RockyMountains, conditions were mostly warm and dry. Snow accumulation remained well below normal throughoutwinter, leaving winter wheat unprotected from occasional cold snaps and limiting the availability of moisture fromspring snowmelt.
Corn: Growers intend to plant 81.4 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2005, up 1 percent from 2004 and4 percent above 2003. If realized, this would be largest corn acreage since 1985 when 83.4 million acres were
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 30 NASS, USDA
planted for all purposes. Expected acreage is up from last year throughout much of the Corn Belt and southernGreat Plains. However, growers in most States in the Delta, Southeast, and northern Great Plains intend to decreasetheir corn acreage as producers are switching to other more profitable crops due to low corn prices and high fueland fertilizer costs.
Corn farmers in the ten major corn producing States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri,Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin) intend to plant 64.5 million acres, an increase of 1 percent from the63.6 million acres last year. Kansas is showing the largest increase as 3.40 million acres are intended to be planted,which is 300,000 acres above last year. Illinois farmers expect to plant a record high 12.0 million acres, an increaseof 250,000 acres from last year. South Dakota is the only major corn State showing a decrease from last year asproducers there expect to plant 250,000 fewer acres.
Sorghum: The 2005 intended sorghum area planted for all purposes is estimated at 7.40 million acres, down1 percent from last year. Sorghum acres declined from last year in seven States, but increased in ten States. Thelargest acreage declines are expected by growers in Kansas and Nebraska, which will combine for a decrease of460,000 acres. Parts of Kansas that had been in very dry conditions for several years received ample moisture thislast fall and winter. Due to the better moisture conditions, some Kansas growers are planning on switching to othercrops this year. The largest acreage increase is expected in Texas, where the intended sorghum area is 2.50 millionacres, up 13 percent from the previous year. Soil conditions are adequate across most of Texas due to plenty ofrainfall this fall and winter, but planting has been slowed in some areas due to wet field conditions. If the wet fieldconditions persist, some growers may change their planting intentions.
Oats: Acres seeded and to be seeded for the 2005 crop year are expected to total 4.27 million acres, up 4 percentfrom last year’s planted area. Acreage planted to oats is expected to increase or remain at the same level as 2004 inmost states across the Great Plains, except in Kansas, Montana, and Oklahoma. The largest increase of oat acreageis expected in North Dakota, which is up 8 percent from 2004. Iowa, New York, Texas, and Wyoming are eachexpecting an increase of 20,000 acres from last year.
Barley: Growers intend to plant 3.97 million acres for 2005, down 12 percent from last year and, if realized, thelowest since barley planted acreage estimates began in 1926. Expected acreage declined from last year in the4 largest barley-producing States. Of the top 10 barley States, Minnesota is the only State with increased plantingintentions. North Dakota growers expect to plant 1.20 million acres, 400,000 acres below 2004 and, if realized, thefewest planted acres on record. Acreage intentions in Montana and Washington are the lowest since 1953. Droughtconditions and an expected decrease in malting barley contracts are the main reasons for the decrease in plantingintentions.
Winter Wheat: Planted area for the 2005 crop is 41.6 million acres, down 4 percent from 2004, but virtuallyunchanged from the Winter Wheat Seedings report. Changes from the previous report were minor and mostlyoffsetting. Of the total, about 30.5 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 6.6 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and4.5 million acres are White Winter. Seeding began last August and advanced ahead of the 5-year average pace untilthe middle of October, when wet weather slowed progress. Nearly all of the U.S. acreage was seeded byDecember 1. Ample precipitation in most areas contributed to record high condition ratings throughout much of thefall.
Durum Wheat: Area seeded to Durum wheat is expected to total 2.61 million acres, up 2 percent from 2004. Planted area is up 100,000 acres in North Dakota, where growers expect to shift acres from other crops to wheat. This more than offsets acreage declines in all other States. In Idaho, which is new to the estimating program thisyear, growers intend to plant 10,000 acres. Unusually heavy rain in California hampered seeding activities duringFebruary.
Other Spring Wheat: Growers intend to plant 14.4 million acres this year, up 4 percent from 2004. Of the total,about 13.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. Large increases in North Dakota, South Dakota, andMinnesota more than offset declines in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Montana. Growers in the Dakotas arereturning acreage to other spring wheat from barley, corn, and soybeans. Extremely dry conditions in the PNW areleading to lower intended acreage. Montana producers shifted acreage from other spring wheat to winter wheat.
Rice: Area intended for rice in 2005 is estimated at 3.36 million acres, up less than 1 percent from 2004 and up11 percent from 2003. Growers in California and Texas intend to plant fewer acres compared with last year, whilethe remaining producing States expect an increase in acreage from 2004.
Long grain intended acreage, representing 80 percent of the total, is up 4 percent from last year. Medium grainintended acreage is down 11 percent from 2004 and represents 19 percent of the total. Area intended for short grainvarieties declined 8 percent from 2004 and represents 1 percent of the total.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 31 NASS, USDA
Hay: Producers expect to harvest 62.9 million acres of all hay in 2005, up 2 percent from last year. The two Stateswith the largest expected increases are New York, which is up 470,000 acres from last year, and South Dakota,which is up 300,000 acres. Acreage in Texas and Oklahoma is expected to increase due to beneficial weatherconditions. A wet fall combined with a mild winter has allowed for adequate soil moisture and expectations of alarger hay crop in those States. Conversely, much of the Northwest has experienced an unusually dry winter withvery low snow-pack levels leading to reduced expectations for hay in that region.
Soybeans: Growers intend to plant an estimated 73.9 million acres in 2005, down 2 percent from the recordacreage planted in 2004.
Growers in 16 of the 31 soybean producing States intend to plant fewer acres this year, while producers in 11 Statesintend to plant more acres than in 2004. Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, and West Virginia are unchanged fromlast year. The largest intended decrease in soybean acreage is in the Dakotas, where low soybean prices have somefarmers shifting to other crops. Producers in the Delta and Southeast States are more concerned with Asian soybeanrust than in other parts of the country. The expected rise in soybean production costs to combat the disease arepersuading some farmers in those regions to find alternatives. Acreage planted to soybeans in Louisiana is expectedto decrease 23 percent, partially due to the risks of Asian soybean rust.
Producers in the eleven major soybean growing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota,Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio) intend to plant 60.4 million acres, down 1 percentfrom last year. Illinois and Indiana farmers intend to plant 250,000 and 150,000 fewer soybean acres, respectively. Planted acreage is expected to increase from last year in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio.
Due to the discovery of Asian soybean rust in the U.S., questions were asked of farmers in soybean producingStates about their awareness of the disease and how it has affected their planting decisions. Of those intending toplant soybeans this year, 89 percent had seen, read, or heard at least some information about Asian soybean rust. Only 11 percent of those aware of the disease considered rust as a factor in making their 2005 soybean plantingdecisions, but 49 percent of these farm operators who intend to plant soybeans decreased acreage because of theadditional factor of rust in their decisions. The largest percentage of soybean farmers who decreased their acreagedue to the additional factor of Asian soybean rust were in the Delta and Southeast regions, where 63 percentdecreased acreage. For additional information by State, Region, and intended soybean acres planted, see pages 20 -23 of this report.
Peanuts: Producers intend to plant 1.60 million acres of peanuts in 2005, up 12 percent from last year. Of the nineproducing States, five intend to plant more acres than in 2004. Southeast growers (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, andSouth Carolina) intend to plant 1.18 million acres, up 18 percent from last year. In the Virginia-North Carolinaregion, producers intend to plant 130,000 acres, down 6 percent from 2004. Growers in the Southwest (NewMexico, Oklahoma, and Texas) intend to plant 292,000 acres, unchanged from last year.
Sunflower: Growers expect to plant a total of 2.75 million acres in 2005, up 47 percent from last year and the firstacreage increase since 1998. Area intended for oil type varieties, at 2.19 million acres, is up 43 percent from 2004,and the non-oil varieties, estimated at 565,000 acres, are up 66 percent from last year.
North Dakota sunflower growers intend to plant 1.26 million acres in 2005, up 380,000 from 2004, and growers inSouth Dakota intend to plant 600,000 acres, up 165,000 acres from the previous year. Acreage increases are alsoexpected in Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Texas.
Canola: Producers intend to plant 1.05 million acres in 2005, up 21 percent from 2004, the first increase in canolaacreage since 2000. Producers in North Dakota, the leading canola State, intend to plant 950,000, while producersin Minnesota and Montana expect to plant 45,000 and 23,000 acres, respectively.
Flaxseed: Producers expect to plant 919,000 acres in 2005, up 76 percent from last year. If realized, this would bethe largest planted area since 1979 when 922,000 acres were planted. Each of the four States in the estimatingprogram (Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota) are showing significant increases from 2004 asproducers are hoping to take advantage of high flaxseed prices. North Dakota growers intend to plant 850,000 acresin 2005, up 73 percent from 2004.
Cotton: The U.S. planted area for all cotton in 2005 is estimated at 13.8 million acres, up 1 percent from 2004. Upland cotton acreage totaled 13.5 million acres, also up 1 percent. Growers intend to increase American-Pimacotton planted area 10 percent from 2004, to 275,000 acres.
Upland growers in the Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) planted3.83 million acres, up 12 percent from 2004. Farmers in Louisiana and Mississippi expect to plant 120,000 and140,000 more acres than last year, respectively.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 32 NASS, USDA
Producers in Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas intend to plant 6.08 million acres of upland, a 2 percentdecrease from last year. Planting intentions in Texas are 150,000 acres below 2004. In the Southeast (Alabama,Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia), farmers expect to plant 2.92 million acres,1 percent below 2004.
Upland planted acreage in Arizona and California is estimated at 710,000 acres, 11 percent below last year. California producers intend to plant 480,000 acres, 14 percent less than 2004.
Growers expect to plant 275,000 acres of American-Pima cotton. This is a 10 percent increase from last year’scrop. California shows the largest increase, planting 240,000 acres, a 12 percent increase from last year. Texasproducers are planning to increase planted acreage by 5 percent, while Arizona remained the same as last year. New Mexico growers intend to plant 10,000 acres, down 600 acres from a year ago. Factors such as wateravailability, the cost of irrigating, and prices of upland relative to American-Pima will impact the final plantingdecisions.
Sugarbeets: Area planted to sugarbeets for the 2005 crop year is expected to total 1.30 million acres, 3 percentbelow the 2004 planted acreage. Intended plantings decreased from last year in all States, except North Dakota andColorado. The largest declines in acreage were in Idaho, with 22,000 fewer acres than in 2004, and Michigan, with16,000 fewer acres. If realized, these would be the lowest planted acreage since 1988 for Idaho and since 1987 forMichigan. Lack of soil moisture across most sugarbeet-producing areas was the main reason for the decline inplanting intentions.
Tobacco: U.S. all tobacco area for harvest in 2005 is expected to be 319,860 acres, down 22 percent from both2004 and 2003. If realized, this will be the lowest harvested acreage on record. The previous low of 369,000 acresoccurred in 1868. Large decreases in flue-cured and light air-cured harvested acreage are expected as well asdecreases in dark-air cured and all cigar types. However, a slight increase in acres to be harvested is expected forfire-cured. Acreage this year will be heavily impacted by the elimination of the tobacco quota program and pricesupports as farmers adjust to the tobacco buyout.
Flue-cured tobacco, at 189,300 acres, is 17 percent below a year ago and down 19 percent from 2003. Flue-curedacreage accounts for 59 percent of this year’s expected total tobacco acreage. Acreage in North Carolina, theleading flue-cured State, is down 14 percent from last year. Harvested acreage is also expected to decline inVirginia, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina by 39 percent, 30 percent, 17 percent, and 15 percent, respectively.
Light air-cured tobacco types are down 30 percent from last year and 29 percent below 2003. Burley tobacco, at108,300 acres, is down 30 percent from a year ago and 29 percent below two years ago. Seven burley producingStates expect acres to decrease from last year. These States are Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Ohio, NorthCarolina, Missouri, and West Virginia which are down 31 percent, 24 percent, 25 percent, 20 percent, 45 percent,3 percent, and 46 percent, respectively. Pennsylvania tobacco farmers expect to begin growing burley in 2005, with2,400 acres. New opportunities for Pennsylvania growers are available due to the elimination of the tobacco quotaprogram. Pennsylvania’s southern Maryland type tobacco acres are estimated at 1,500, down 32 percent from lastyear but 15 percent above two years ago.
Fire-cured tobacco types, at 11,770 acres, are up 1 percent from 2004 and 5 percent above 2003. Kentuckyproducers expect acreage to increase 8 percent from last year while Tennessee growers expect no change in theiracreage.
Dark air-cured tobacco types, at 4,140 acres, are 2 percent below last year’s harvested acres but virtually unchangedfrom 2003. One sucker type tobacco, at 2,840 acres, and Green River type tobacco, at 1,300 acres, are bothunchanged from last year. Farmers in Virginia do not expect to grow sun-cured tobacco this year.
All cigar types, at 4,850 acres, are down 29 percent from last year and 37 percent below 2003. Acreage ofPennsylvania seedleaf, at 1,300 acres, is down 28 percent from last year. Connecticut and Massachusetts broadleafacreage, at 2,300, is down 3 percent from the 2004 crop. Expected harvested acres of Connecticut andMassachusetts shade-grown tobacco are estimated to be 1,250, up 5 percent from a year ago.
Dry Beans: Prospective 2005 planting of dry beans in the U.S. totals 1.66 million acres, up 23 percent from lastyear and 18 percent above 2 years ago. High prices for the 2004 crop and low inventories contributed to theexpected increase in planted acres. Thirteen States expect to plant more dry bean acres than a year ago and 3 Statesexpect planted acres to be unchanged, while acreage in Texas is expected to be down from 2004.
North Dakota farmers expect a 29 percent increase in dry bean acreage this year. Michigan's prospective acreage isup 24 percent. Nebraska growers expect a 33 percent increase, while Minnesota dry bean acreage is expected to goup 13 percent. South Dakota growers expect a 122 percent increase if current plans are realized. Colorado andWyoming producers expect planted acres to be up 20 percent, while prospective dry bean acres in Idaho rose
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 33 NASS, USDA
19 percent. Acres in Kansas, Montana, New York, Utah, and Washington are also expected to be up. Acres inCalifornia, Oregon, and New Mexico are expected to be unchanged from 2004. Texas acres are expected todecrease 15 percent from last year due to good planting conditions for other crops.
Garbanzo beans have been planted in California but other varieties will not be planted until mid-May. Growers arewaiting for warmer and drier weather. Most States will wait until late April through June for dry bean planting. Water supplies in Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington are low and growers are uncertain if they will be ableto plant. In Colorado, water supplies are better than in the last 3 years.
Sweet Potatoes: Growers intend to plant 94,900 acres of sweet potatoes in 2005, down 3 percent from last yearand 1 percent below 2003. This intended decrease in planted acreage is being influenced by high storageinventories. Acreage is expected to be lower than last year in 4 States, unchanged in 3, and higher in 2.
Transplant preparations are active in North Carolina, as most growers have planted their beds or have lined upsources for plants. North Carolina growers expect to decrease planted acres by 11 percent. Alabama growers planto lower planted acres by 4 percent. Mississippi and Louisiana planting intentions for sweet potatoes are up 13 and6 percent, respectively. Growers in New Jersey, South Carolina, and Virginia expect to plant the same as last year.
Planting intentions in California are down 3 percent from last year. Hotbed planting is underway in California. Growing conditions have been good, with ample rainfall reported. Texas growers also plan to decrease acres3 percent this year. Wet conditions may delay planting.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 34 NASS, USDA
Reliability of Acreage Data in this Report
Survey Procedures: The acreage estimates in this report are based primarily on surveys conducted during the first 2 weeks ofMarch. The March Agricultural Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of over 83,000 farm operators selected froma list of producers that ensures all operations in the U.S. have a chance to be selected. These operators were contacted by mail,telephone, or personal interview to obtain information on crop acreage planned for the 2005 crop year.
Estimating Procedures: National, Regional, State, and grower reported data were reviewed for reasonableness and consistencywith historical estimates. Each State Statistical Office submits their analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural StatisticsBoard (ASB). Survey data are compiled to the National level and are reviewed at this level independently of each State’s review.Acreage estimates were based on survey data and the historical relationship of official estimates to the survey data. Revision Policy: Acreage estimates in the "Prospective Plantings" report will not be revised. These estimates are intended toreflect grower intentions as of the survey period. New acreage estimates will be made based on surveys conducted in June whencrop acreages have been established or planting intentions are firm. These new estimates will be published in the "Acreage"report scheduled for June 30, 2005. Winter wheat is an exception. Since winter wheat was seeded prior to the March survey, anychanges in estimates in this report are considered revisions. The estimate of the harvested acreage of winter wheat will bepublished on May 12, 2005, along with the first production forecast of the crop year.
Reliability: The survey used to make acreage estimates is subject to sampling and non-sampling errors that are common to allsurveys. Sampling errors represent the variability between estimates that would result if many different samples were surveyedat the same time. Sampling errors for major crops are generally between 1.0 and 3.0 percent, but they cannot be applied directlyto the acreage published in this report to determine confidence intervals because the official estimates represent a composite ofinformation from more than a single source.
Non-sampling errors cannot be measured directly. They may occur due to incorrect reporting and/or recording, data omissionsor duplications, and errors in processing. To minimize non-sampling errors, vigorous quality controls are used in the datacollection process and all data are carefully reviewed for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of acreage estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measurebased on past performance, is computed. The deviations between the acreage estimates in this report and the final estimates areexpressed as a percentage of the final estimates. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period iscomputed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can bemade concerning expected differences in the current estimates relative to the final end-of-season estimates, assuming that factorsaffecting this year's estimates are not different from those influencing recent years.
For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the corn planted estimate is 2.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3that the current corn acreage estimate will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.0 percent. Chances are 9 outof 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 3.5 percent.
Also, shown in the table is a 20-year record for selected crops of the difference between the "Prospective Plantings" plantedacreage estimates and the final estimates. Using corn again as an example, changes between the intentions estimates and thefinal estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 1.16 million acres, ranging from 7,000 acres to 3.84 million acres. Theprospective plantings estimates have been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. This does not imply that theplanted estimate this year is likely to understate or overstate the final estimate.
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 35 NASS, USDA
Reliability of Prospective Plantings Planted Acreage Estimates
CropRoot Mean
Square ErrorPercent
90Percent
ConfidenceInterval
20-Year Record ofDifferences Between Forecast
and Final Estimate
Thousand AcresQuantity
Number ofYears
Average Smallest Largest BelowFinal
AboveFinal
1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres 1,000 Acres Number Number
CornSorghumOatsBarleyWinter WheatDurum WheatOther Spring WheatSoybeansUpland Cotton
2.07.87.74.81.27.36.02.03.8
3.513.613.3
8.32.0
12.510.3
3.56.7
1,164662604311423186835
1,094406
7312431
9121225
6
3,8442,4712,429
7601,630
5522,5432,582
945
710
459
12141310
1310161511
867
10
Prospective Plantings Agricultural Statistics BoardMarch 2005 36 NASS, USDA
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact foradditional information.
Joe Prusacki, Chief (202) 720-2127
Field Crops SectionGreg Thessen, Head (202) 720-2127Lance Honig - Wheat, Rye (202) 720-8068Darin Jantzi - Corn, Proso Millet, Flaxseed (202) 720-9526Troy Joshua - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings (202) 720-5944Dennis Koong - Hay, Oats, Sorghum (202) 720-7688Jason Lamprecht - Soybeans, Sunflower, Other Oilseeds (202) 720-7369Dennis Koong - Peanuts, Rice (202) 720-7688Brian Young - Crop Weather, Barley, Sugar Crops (202) 720-7621
Fruit, Vegetable & Special Crops SectionJim Smith, Head (202) 720-2127Leslie Colburn - Berries, Grapes, Maple Syrup, Tobacco (202) 720-7235Debbie Flippin - Austrian Winter Peas, Dry Edible Peas, Lentils, Mint, Mushrooms, Peaches, Pears, Wrinkled Seed Peas (202) 720-3250Jorge Garcia-Pratts - Citrus, Tropical Fruits (202) 720-5412Rich Holcomb - Floriculture, Nursery, Nuts (202) 720-4215Terry O’Connor - Apples, Apricots, Cherries, Cranberries,
Plums, Prunes (202) 720-4288Kim Ritchie - Hops (360) 902-1940Cathy Scherrer - Dry Beans, Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes (202) 720-4285Biz Wallingsford - Fresh and Processing Vegetables, Onions,
Strawberries (202) 720-2157
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