Propositions & Consequences - California State University ... · CENTER FOR CALIFORNIA STUDIES ....
Transcript of Propositions & Consequences - California State University ... · CENTER FOR CALIFORNIA STUDIES ....
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J O S H U A J . D Y C K
V I S I T I N G S C H O L A R C E N T E R F O R C A L I F O R N I A S T U D I E S
2 0 1 5 - 2 0 1 6 A C A D E M I C Y E A R
A S S O C I A T E P R O F E S S O R , P O L I T I C A L S C I E N C E C O - D I R E C T O R , C E N T E R F O R P U B L I C O P I N I O N R E S E A R C H
U N I V E R S I T Y O F M A S S A C H U S E T T S L O W E L L
J O S H U A _ D Y C K @ U M L . E D U @ D R J J D Y C K
Propositions & Consequences Ballot Initiatives and Civic Engagement
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Roadmap
Part I: A Puzzle Part II: Background Part III: Participatory Democratic
Theory Part IV: A New Theory and New
Evidence Party V: Summary and
Conclusion
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A P U Z Z L E
Part I
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The puzzle
Studies show turnout increases due to initiatives
No evidence of effects of ballot initiatives on trust, efficacy, knowledge, interest, etc.
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B A C K G R O U N D
Part II
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Direct Democracy •Historic Roots
•Definitions
•Usage
•Policy Content
•Contentious debates
0102030405060708090
100
1904 1916 1928 1940 1952 1964 1976 1988 2000 2012
Nu
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Year
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Roots and Reform
Progressive Era Foundations
Understanding the purpose of Progressive Era Reforms Political Parties Corruption Juxtaposition of the ballot initiative
with meritocracy and Strong Mayor systems
Hybrid Democracy Direct Democracy
Reconciling with Representative Democracy Madison’s tyranny of the majority
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Adoption and Usage
Table 1. Initiative History and Usage, 1898-2010
State
Year of Adoption Legislative Domain Total Initiatives
1898-2010
Average Biennial
Initiatives
Alaska 1956 Statute Only 47 1.7 Arizona 1911 Both 172 3.4 Arkansas 1910 Both 120 2.4 California 1911 Both 340 6.8 Colorado 1912 Both 215 4.3 Florida 1972 Constitutional Only 32 1.6 Idaho 1912 Statute Only 28 0.6 Illinois 1970 Constitutional Only 1 0.0 Maine 1908 Statute Only 52 1.0 Massachusetts 1918 Both 72 1.5 Michigan 1908 Both 72 1.4 Mississippia 1992 Constitutional Only 2 0.2 Missouri 1908 Both 81 1.6 Montanab 1904 Both 77 1.4 Nebraska 1912 Both 46 0.9 Nevada 1905 Both 54 1.0 North Dakota 1914 Both 179 3.7 Ohio 1912 Both 77 1.6 Oklahoma 1907 Both 85 1.6 Oregon 1902 Both 355 6.5 South Dakota 1898 Both 64 1.1 Utahc 1917 Statute Only 20 0.4 Washington 1912 Statute Only 163 3.3 Wyoming 1968 Statute Only 6 0.3 a Mississippi passed it in 1914, but it was ruled unconstitutional in 1922 b Montana Added the Constitutional Initiative in 1972 c Utah voters approved of the ballot initiative in 1990, but the legislature balked at implementing the law until 1917
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Content and Conflict California had 208 initiatives from 1970-2012; 76 of them were classified as “tax,” “bond,” or “budget” initiatives by NCSL
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Civic Engagement
A measure of the connectedness of citizens and government/society Voting/Turnout as civic duty Political Interest Political Awareness/Knowledge Trust (Political and Social) Efficacy (Internal and External)
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Effects talked about by scholars
Primary
Secondary
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Effects
Primary
Secondary
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P A R T I C I P A T O R Y D E M O C R A T I C T H E O R Y
Part III
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Spillover Effects
The direct democracy experience is different
How is it different? The act of voting is different The issues we consider are different The cost of voting is different The perceived benefits of voting or not
voting are different The expectations for voters are different
Question: does direct democracy
increase civic engagement?
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The current theory
Participatory democratic theory as applied to ballot measures
Ballot Measures
Our own capabilities
The capabilities of others
The effectiveness of government
Higher Levels of Participation
• Direct legislation engages citizens through involvement in their democracy; empowerment is key to this theory
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What the empirics support
Participatory theory
Ballot Measures
Our own capabilities
The capabilities of others
The effectiveness of government
Higher Levels of Participation
Knowledge Engagement/Interest Internal Political Efficacy
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What the empirics support
Participatory theory
Ballot Measures
Increasing Views of Own Capabilities
The capabilities of others
The effectiveness of government
Higher Levels of Participation
Generalized Social Trust Political Discussion Cross-cutting political discussion
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What the empirics support
Participatory theory
Ballot Measures
Our own capabilities
The capabilities of others
The effectiveness of government
Higher Levels of Participation
Political Trust External Political Efficacy
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Trust From Dyck (2010)
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Political Awareness (from Seabrook, Dyck and Lascher 2015)
% Effect of 1 additional initiative per year, on average, on political knowledge
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Null Effects are the norm
Political Efficacy Some evidence that ballot measures
decrease internal efficacy among long-resource voters
Political Interest Inconsistent evidence
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What the empirics support
Participatory theory
Ballot Measures
Our own capabilities
The capabilities of others
The effectiveness of government
Higher Levels of Participation
Why?
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A N E W T H E O R Y ( A N D S O M E N E W E V I D E N C E )
Part IV
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Why does turnout increase?
Participatory theory argument falls apart Was never really logically coherent
(Rosenstone and Hansen 1993)
How do we increase turnout? Decrease the costs Increase the benefit Increase the expressive benefit of
voting – Civic Duty Create Social Pressure through
campaigns
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An alternative theory Propositions
Conflict-centered process Schattschneider on conflict Dahl on the mobilization of conflict
Elite Behavior:
The incentive structure for ballot initiatives encourages extremism Ballot initiatives completely change the way we understand agenda
setting Ballot initiatives increase the number of interest groups More money more ad space more efforts to influence and
mobilize
Mass Behavior:
Mobilization without interest campaign mobilization Voters will trust the government at lower rates ; like direct
democracy in the abstract, but dislike it in practice Issue space will be more developed and therefore more partisan
Despite the hopes of reformers, most of this conflict reinforces and intensifies partisan divides
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Some evidence that already exists…
Partisan bias in mobilization Tested in one state by Dyck and Seabrook (2010)
Ballot initiatives will increase policy-specific knowledge, but not general knowledge Seabrook, Dyck and Lascher (2015) Nicholson (2003)
The most conflictual and competitive initiatives will lead to the biggest turnout increases Childers and Binder (2011) Biggers (2015)
Ballot initiatives decrease trust in government Dyck (2010)