Property Market Update Report - Amazon S3Market... · • Australia-wide predictions over the next...

OTH Capital City and National Overview

Data for the period ending October 31, 2014

Property Market Update Report

Median Value

Capital Growth Rent Sales Prediction

20 YrAvg. % pa

YE Oct14 Last Qtr Last Month ME Oct 14 ME Oct14Year

ChangeYE Oct14

Year Change

5 Year %pa

ACT $530,000 6.50% 0.44% 0.20% 1.47% 4.75% $480 -5.88% 5,036 7.40% 2%+

Adelaide $416,000 6.78% 5.21% 0.64% 0.50% 4.65% $370 4.23% 18,703 11.57% 1%+

Brisbane $476,000 6.63% 6.80% 0.54% 0.97% 4.87% $445 2.30% 39,114 20.44% 3%+

Darwin $581,000 6.76% 1.33% 0.55% 1.27% 5.50% $610 0.83% 1,466 4.86% 2%+

Hobart $378,000 NULL 5.73% 3.58% 3.17% 4.99% $360 4.35% 1,982 7.08% 0%+

Melbourne $657,000 7.88% 8.85% 4.95% 0.39% 3.57% $450 2.27% 47,388 17.64% 2%+

Perth $535,000 7.94% 2.63% -1.58% -0.54% 4.57% $470 -2.08% 32,129 7.01% 3%+

Sydney $875,500 7.40% 16.83% 4.28% 1.92% 3.81% $640 8.47% 49,945 16.34% 3%+

Australia $477,000 NULL 6.71% 0.81% 0.49% 4.63% $420 2.44% 339,347 12.35% 4%+

Property Market Update

National Overview

© onthehouse.com.au 1

Houses

G1: Australia Growth Trend G2: Sales Volumes

Median Value

Capital Growth Rent Sales Prediction

20 YrAvg. % pa

YE Oct14 Last Qtr Last Month ME Oct 14 ME Oct 14Year

ChangeYE Oct 14

Year Change

5 Year %pa

ACT $399,500 5.96% -1.83% -0.61% 0.25% 5.14% $395 -7.06% 3,121 -23.26% 0%+

Adelaide $311,500 6.56% 1.19% 1.46% 2.15% 5.18% $310 1.64% 4,735 5.08% 1%+

Brisbane $370,500 5.64% 5.54% 0.45% 0.15% 5.36% $380 1.33% 17,075 21.56% 1%+

Darwin $429,000 7.15% -0.95% -0.68% -0.89% 5.87% $480 -1.03% 790 -6.84% 1%+

Hobart $262,500 NULL 1.68% -0.14% -0.59% 5.62% $280 3.70% 610 5.54% 1%+

Melbourne $465,500 7.67% 4.25% 1.87% 0.16% 4.45% $395 0.00% 33,630 5.24% 3%+

Perth $465,500 7.42% 2.81% 0.37% 0.28% 4.93% $440 -1.12% 12,028 -15.32% 2%+

Sydney $594,500 6.48% 13.99% 2.18% 1.53% 4.74% $540 4.85% 45,547 12.98% 2%+

Australia $440,500 NULL 6.69% -0.58% 0.15% 4.89% $410 1.23% 153,828 7.55% 2%+

Units

• The Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment increased by 1.9% in November, from 94.8 in October to 96.6 inNovember.

• Following major data revisions from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the October unemployment rate was revised up from6.0% to 6.2%. Previous assessments that the unemployment rate may have stabilised around 6% have had to be reconsidered.The unemployment rate reached an all time high in December 1992 (11.1%) and a record low of 4.0% in February 2008. The longterm average unemployment rate in Australia is 7.0%.

• The unemployment revision is likely to have impacted the Westpac-Melbourne Unemployment Expectations Index. The Indexincreased by 2.7% in November, indicating that respondents are more pessimistic about the labour market. The result isparticularly disappointing given that it followed a promising fall of 3.9% in October. This Index is now 5.5% above its level of ayear ago and 17.2% above its level of three years ago when the Reserve Bank started its most recent cycle of rate cuts.

• Growth in the Sydney market over the last 12 months was significantly higher than any other capital city in Australia, at 16.83%.Melbourne recorded the second highest level of growth with values increasing by 8.85%.

• Unaffordability has now reached a level where first home buyers are largely excluded from the market, and the main centraldwelling areas of capital cities are become the “home” of investors.

• The resource state capital cities – Brisbane and Perth, are following a similar pattern to Sydney however their growth cycles havebeen small and these assets are producing growth that contradicts the hype around a property ‘boom’ or ‘bubble’.

• Australia-wide predictions over the next 5 years is 4% for houses and 2% for units, which is lower than the average growth ratesachieved over the last 20 years.

• Lower rates of growth are a function of our markets becoming more unaffordable.

-0.40%

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Houses Units

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Adelaide

• Unemployment in South Australia has been increasingsince March 2008, when it was 4.4%. While today’sunemployment rate is higher than the national average, ithas been improving since its high of 7.3% in June 2014.

• Calculations estimate that there is an oversupply of housingstock of about 4,000 dwelling, which is significant as thismarket is relatively small.

• The surplus supply problem is likely to be found in theinner city unit market where the Government continues toprovide ‘off-the-plan’ apartment concessions of up to$21,330.

• Affordability in Adelaide is among the best in the nation. Itcurrently takes 29.5% of the median household’s after taxincome to make loan repayments on the median house.

• The good affordability position will be of significantassistance in ensuring the oversupply position is correctedonce demand is generated.

• The house market presents as if there is growth to comeover the next 12 months, however it will be at inflationlevel. The units market presents as if it will struggle to keeppace with inflation.

• 5 year growth predictions indicate that both the house andthe unit markets will struggle to keep pace with inflation.


Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

South Australia Unemployment Rate 6.7%

Historical South Australian Unemployment Rate* 7.7%

National Average 6.2%

* Median since Feb-1978

Key Statistics


Affordability

WeeklyLoan Payment

% of A/TIncome

WeeklyRent Payment

% of A/TIncome

Houses $448.27 29.50% $372.14 24.49%

Units $335.67 22.09% $310.18 20.41%

Annual Income $95,217Official Cash Rate 2.5%

Assumed Home Load Rate 5.1%Loan Amount 80%Assumed Tax Rate 17%

G1: Growth Trend

G3: Cash Rate

G2: Sales Volume

G4: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment

DONE Houses Units

Median Value $416,000 $311,500

Annual Growth 5.21% 1.19%

Quarterly Growth 0.64% 1.46%

Monthly Growth 0.50% 2.15%

Rental Yield 4.65% 5.18%

Rent Rate $370 $310

Annual Sales 18,703 4,735

5 Year Prediction 1%+ 1%+

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Brisbane

• Growth in the Brisbane market was 6.80% for houses and5.54% for units in the last 12 months.

• It is calculated that there is potentially surplus of stock inthis market, which is likely to be found in the unit marketsof the Gold Coast and Brisbane.

• Affordability in Brisbane is at the limit of comfort. Rentalcosts are only marginally better than making home loanrepayments, making it difficult for the median rentingfamily to save a deposit for their own home.

• The growth cycle in Brisbane has been small and it is nowslowing. However, all properties in this market will not haveadvanced in value and it is likely that over 50% of dwellingshave not recovered their losses since the correction phasecommenced in February 2010.

• While sales in the Brisbane market have increased morethan any other capital city in Australia in the past 12months, activity remains lower than the peak sale period inSeptember 2003. House sales are only 63% of the peakrate, while units are 76% of the peak rate.

• Improvement in economic growth is expected over the nextfew years, which means well placed properties in Brisbanethat are purchased for the right price present goodinvestment opportunities.



Queensland Unemployment Rate 7.0%

Historical Queensland Unemployment Rate* 7.4%



Key Statistics

Houses Units

Median Value $476,000 $370,500





Rent Rate $445 $380




Affordability

WeeklyLoan Payment

% of A/TIncome

WeeklyRent Payment

% of A/TIncome

Houses $512.93 32.96% $445.88 28.65%

Units $399.24 25.66% $381.85 24.54%



G1: Growth Trend

G3: Cash Rate

G2: Sales Volume


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G1: Growth Trend

Canberra

• The Federal Government is in the process of cutting jobs,with a stated objective of reducing staff numbers by 16,500jobs by July 2017.

• The impact of job losses is evident in the unemploymentgraph – with the unemployment rate deteriorating sinceearlier this year. Unemployment in Canberra is now at itshighest level since its low of 2.5% in November 2007. Theparticipation rate has also been dropping since August2012.

• The unit market has lost value of about $38,500 since it’speak of $438,000 in August 2011.

• The house market has also lost value, but at a lower rate –the peak value in the house market was reached inNovember 2010 at $541,500.

• Residex calculates that this market has a surplus ofapproximately 3,000 dwellings, which is significant as thismarket is relatively small.

• Affordability in the ACT is amongst the best in the nation,which is a function of higher household income and lowerproperty values. This suggests that once the FederalGovernment begins employing again, this market shouldmove forward quite strongly.

• Property owners in Canberra should be patient and wait forprices to increase when the Federal Government decides toexpand.

G4: Unemployment Trend


Unemployment Trend

ACT Unemployment Rate 5.4%

Historical ACT Unemployment Rate* 5.3%



Key Statistics

DONE Houses Units

Median Value $530,000 $399,500

Annual Growth 0.44% -1.83%

Quarterly Growth 0.20% -0.61%



Rent Rate $480 $395




Affordability

WeeklyLoan Payment

% of A/TIncome

WeeklyRent Payment

% of A/TIncome

Houses $571.12 29.08% $484.04 24.65%

Units $430.49 21.92% $394.57 20.09%



G3: Cash Rate

G2: Sales Volume

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Darwin

• Unemployment in the NT is the lowest in Australia, and issignificantly lower than its long term median.

• Calculations indicate that this market is oversupplied byabout 1,000 dwellings, which is significant as this is a smallmarket.

• Growth and sales activity has slowed in this market.• Growth in the Darwin house market was just 1.33% in the

last 12 months, which is significantly lower than the 20 yearlong term average rate of growth (6.76%).

• The unit market lost value by -0.95% in the last year andsales have dropped by -6.84%. Rent has also dropped inthis market, falling by -1.03% in the last 12 months.

• Affordability in this market is not great and there is little tono benefit of renting compared to buying. The differencebetween renting and buying a house is just $11 per week,while it is in fact $22 less to pay off a mortgage on a unitthan it is to rent one.

• Darwin has become a relatively risky market for themoment, and statistical predictions suggest growth over thenext 5 years is unlikely to exceed 2% for houses and theunit market is unlikely to keep pace with inflation unlessthere are significant increases in defence personnel and/ornew resource projects.


Unemployment Trend

Northern Territory Unemployment Rate 4.0%

Historical Northern Territory Unemployment Rate* 5.7%



Houses Units

Median Value $581,000 $429,000

Annual Growth 1.33% -0.95%


Monthly Growth 1.27% -0.89%


Rent Rate $610 $480

Annual Sales 1,466 790



Affordability

WeeklyLoan Payment

% of A/TIncome

WeeklyRent Payment

% of A/TIncome

Houses $626.07 36.56% $614.62 35.89%

Units $462.28 26.99% $484.41 28.28%



G1: Growth Trend

G4: Unemployment Trend

G3: Cash Rate

G2: Sales Volume

Key Statistics 0.00

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Hobart

• Unemployment in Tasmania is higher than the nationalaverage, however it remains significantly lower than itslong-term median.

• It is calculated that this market has a potential housingstock surplus, which has grown in the last few quarters toabout 2,000 dwellings.

• Growth in the Hobart house market saw the highestincrease in value out of all capital cities last month, at3.17%.

• The peak of Hobart’s house market was reached inNovember 2010 with a value of about $394,000. The marketis yet to recover all of its losses, and is now valued at$378,000.

• The average salary in Tasmania is the lowest in Australia,but affordability in this market is the best in the nation.

• There is currently little cash benefit between renting andbuying in this market. You are just $45 per week better off ifyou are renting a house, while it is actually $1 per week lessto pay off a mortgage on a unit than to rent one.

• Overall, Tasmania remains a place to watch and see whatthe Government does to rejuvenate the state, and if theirplans are successful.



Tasmania Unemployment Rate 6.9%

Historical Tasmania Unemployment Rate* 8.7%



Key Statistics

Houses Units

Median Value $378,000 $262,500



Monthly Growth 3.17% -0.59%


Rent Rate $360 $280

Annual Sales 1,982 610



Affordability

WeeklyLoan Payment

% of A/TIncome

WeeklyRent Payment

% of A/TIncome

Houses $407.33 28.13% $362.39 25.03%

Units $282.86 19.54% $283.55 19.58%



G1: Growth Trend

G3: Cash Rate

G2: Sales Volume


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Melbourne

• House price value growth in Melbourne was 8.85% in thelast 12 months, which is second only to Sydney. Unit valuesalso increased in this market during the same time period,by 4.25%.

• Affordability in Melbourne is the second worst in Australia.The median household making home loan repayments onthe median home is left with only $913 after tax per weekto spend on necessities. Making repayments on the medianunit leaves the median household with $1,119.

• Calculations indicate that the surplus stock situation in thismarket has increased. It is estimated that this market isnow oversupplied by around 7,000 dwellings.

• The trend in both sales and growth indicates that we havepassed the peak of this relatively small, sharp period ofgrowth in this market. This market is expected to slow aswe approach the Christmas period.

• Rental yields in Melbourne are the lowest in Australia.Currently, rental yields are 3.57% and 4.45% for houses andunits respectively. These yields will be impacting investoractivity in this market.

• The average predicted growth outcome per year over thenext 5 years is 2% for houses and 3% for units.



Victorian Unemployment Rate 6.8%

Historical Victorian Unemployment Rate* 6.1%



Houses Units

Median Value $657,000 $465,500





Rent Rate $450 $395



Key Statistics


Affordability

WeeklyLoan Payment

% of A/TIncome

WeeklyRent Payment

% of A/TIncome

Houses $707.97 43.67% $450.66 27.80%

Units $501.61 30.94% $398.53 24.58%



G1: Growth Trend

G3: Cash Rate

G2: Sales Volume


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Perth

• House values in Perth have almost doubled in the lastdecade.

• Affordability in Perth is better than the eastern capital cities,aside from Canberra. It currently takes 32.81% of after taxincome of the median family to make home loanrepayments on the median home.

• This market has a calculated housing surplus ofapproximately 3,000 dwellings.

• The data indicates that the recent growth cycle in thismarket is coming to an end.

• Housing prices peaked in July 2014 at $543,500 and havesince adjusted – the median value of a Perth houses is now$535,000.

• The median Perth unit is now valued at $465,500, which ismarginally lower than its peak of $464,500 in April 2014.

• Dollar weekly rentals have fallen from their high in June2013 of $480 per week for houses, to $470. This furtherconfirms that the market is likely oversupplied.

• The unit market has suffered most with dollar weeklyrentals falling by -6.4% from their peak of $470 in August2012. Further rental reductions should be expected untilthe stock overhang is absorbed.

• The average predicted growth outcome per year over thenext 5 years is 3% for houses and 2% for units.


Houses Units

Median Value $535,000 $465,500


Quarterly Growth -1.58% 0.37%

Monthly Growth -0.54% 0.28%


Rent Rate $470 $440




Affordability

WeeklyLoan Payment

% of A/TIncome

WeeklyRent Payment

% of A/TIncome

Houses $576.51 32.81% $470.55 26.78%

Units $501.61 28.55% $440.93 25.09%



G1: Growth Trend

G3: Cash Rate

G2: Sales Volume


Key Statistics


Western Australia Unemployment Rate 5.2%

Historical Western Australian Unemployment Rate* 6.6%



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Sydney

• Sydney remains the most expensive market across thecountry, and was the top growth performer in the last year.

• Sydney house values increased by 16.83% in the last 12months, while unit values grew by 13.99%.

• Affordability in Sydney has reached an unacceptable level. Itnow takes more than 55% of after tax income to makehome loan repayments on the median value house.

• When a city becomes too expensive to live in people tend toexit the market, causing lower levels of demand for housingstock. Investors should be careful of a situation where thebest alternative to comfortable living is to leave Sydney andseek employment elsewhere.

• Residex calculates a potential dwelling surplus of about4,000 dwellings.

• For the moment, growth in Sydney house prices is slowing.This is a healthy sign as a further slowing from here meansfuture market corrections are unlikely. Should the rate ofgrowth increase then the longer the growth cycle continuesthe larger any corrections are likely to be.

• Overall, there is still growth to come in this market over thenext 12 months, and the high levels of immigration arelikely to help absorb the excess of stock during this period.

• There is little alternative to rental increases over the nextfew years. This will assist investors by covering increasinginterest rates when they come.



NSW Unemployment Rate 5.7%

Historical NSW Unemployment Rate* 6.2%



Houses Units

Median Value $875,500 $594,500





Rent Rate $640 $540



Key Statistics


Affordability

WeeklyLoan Payment

% of A/TIncome

WeeklyRent Payment

% of A/TIncome

Houses $943.42 55.23% $642.25 37.60%

Units $640.62 37.50% $542.20 31.74%



G1: Growth Trend


G2: Sales Volume

G3: Cash Rate

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Term What is it? What does it tell you?

Average Capital Growth It is the aggregate capital growth amount over a time frame longer than one year, expressed as an annual percentage.

Average capital growth figures allow you tomonitor the performance of different areas orproperties over a period of time.Be aware that the average capital growth figuresare not the total growth figures divided by time.This method would overstate annual growth as itwould include capitalisation.

Capital Growth The capital growth is the growth in houseprices over a period of time, expressed inpercentage.

Capital growth figures allow you to monitor theperformance of different areas or properties overa period of time.

Median Value Residex holds a current value for everyproperty in its database. The median value for any region is the middle value when all values are arranged in order. Where median is ascribed to a date range, the value represents the median at the end date.

The median value tells you what a typical property is worth in an area. By knowing the cost of a typical property in the area, you can judge which areas you can afford to invest in.

Rental Yield The rental yield is the amount of rent you can expect to receive in a year, expressed as a percentage of a property's value. (The rental yield is an annual figure.)Rental yield is the annual rent figure dividedby the property value figure.

Rental yield figures allow you to compare rentalincome from areas or properties with differentproperty values.

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NSW Data:Residex Pty Ltd is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the Department of Finance and Services, Land and Property Information. The information providedin this report contains property sales information provided under licence from the Department of Finance and Services, Land and Property Information. Issue date: October2014.

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