Promise is debt

Trouble in (agile) paradise

Marc Evers - marc@qwan.it Willem van den Ende - willem@qwan.it 2008-2010 QWAN

Lean & Kanban Europe 2010, 24 September 2010

Overview

About us Benefits Our problem Systems Thinking

in six simple steps Summary Q&A

willem@qwan.it rob@qwan.it marc@qwan.it

www.qwan.it

Key points

Most problems are systemic

Look at whole & parts

Tackle root causes, instead of fire fighting

Prevent local optimization

Our problem

We taught everybody agile but....We taught everybody agile but....

customers are unhappycustomers are unhappy

developers are preparing their resumesdevelopers are preparing their resumes

What happened?What happened?What can we do now?What can we do now?

How can we prevent this the next time?How can we prevent this the next time?

We need to look at

the whole system

Diagram of Effects 6 Steps

1. tell the story ask questions, determine scope and focus question

2. collect variables observable or measurable behaviour over time

3. determine cause effect relations

4. look for loops reinforcing, stabilizing

5. simplify 7 2 variables - remove unrelated variables split up the diagram

6. identify possible interventions

Step 1 Tell the Story

Perceived SituationPerceived Situation

Telling already gives inspirationTelling already gives inspiration

Try not to jump to solutions nowTry not to jump to solutions now

Story - Adding a customer

Who has 1 customer?Who has 1 customer?

Who serves multiple customers?Who serves multiple customers?

Who has to share developers with other Who has to share developers with other customers?customers?

Manager in the middle

3 customers, 4 developers, 1 manager3 customers, 4 developers, 1 manager

'special features' for each customer'special features' for each customer

The road to hell is paved with good intentions

Let's promise one 'special feature'Let's promise one 'special feature'

to show what we can doto show what we can do

Step 2 Collect Variables

Simple names work bestWe use # to indicate numbers

Brainstorm: don't worry about relevance or relations

Our variables

Features promised

Customer satisfaction

Plannedfeatures

Customerexpectations

BA BA

BA

Step 3 Determine Cause Effect Relations

Delay

'Positive' Effect 'Negative' Effect

Features promised

Customer satisfaction

Plannedfeatures

Customerexpectations

Tell some more...

Developers work harder, but cut corners

More defects

Customers :(

Manager promises a bit more...

Featurespromised

Customer satisfaction

Customerexpectations

Plannedfeatures

Workload

DefectsPressure

todeliver

Corners cut

Designdebt

Step ... Oh yes, that reminds me

Design debt makes each new feature more xpnsiv

velocity

goes

down

Probability that promises will be

fulfilled

Designdebt

Corners cut

Pressureto deliver

Defects

WorkloadCustomer satisfaction

Features promised

Customerexpectations

Plannedfeatures

Time needed for defectsand new features

Step 4 Identify LoopsStep 4 Identify Loops

This gives focus for interventionsThis gives focus for interventions

Even number of 'negative' effects: SnowballEven number of 'negative' effects: SnowballOdd: StabilizingOdd: Stabilizing

Probability that promises will be

fulfilled

Designdebt

Corners cut

Pressureto deliver

Defects

WorkloadCustomer satisfaction

Features promised

Customerexpectations

Plannedfeatures

Time needed for defectsand new features

Where are the loops?

Probability that promises will be

fulfilled

Designdebt

Corners cut

Pressureto deliver

Defects

WorkloadCustomer satisfaction

Features promised

Customerexpectations

Plannedfeatures

Time needed for defectsand new features

Step 5 - Simplify

Remove Variables and Relations

What causes this?

Customers don't have a choice well, that's what they think afraid to speak up and put up with it the product is really not that important

Developers try to make the best of it pride in craftsmanship over early escalation

Managers want to score escalation / early transparency equals losing face

However

Sooner or later, the system will collapse

People burn outDevelopers leaveCustomers give up

Step 6 - Identify possible interventions

BA

Add Management Decision

Remove Variable

Defects

Add Variable

?

What would you do to recover from this What would you do to recover from this situation?situation?

Probability that promises will be

fulfilled

Designdebt

Corners cut

Pressureto deliver

Defects

WorkloadCustomer satisfaction

Features promised

Customerexpectations

Plannedfeatures

Time needed for defectsand new features

Use a 'gate'

Probability that promises will be

fulfilled

Designdebt

Corners cut

Pressureto deliver

Defects

WorkloadCustomer satisfaction

Features promised

Customerexpectations

Plannedfeatures

Time needed for defectsand new features

Developers say 'no'

Probability that promises will be

fulfilled

Designdebt

Corners cut

Pressureto deliver

Defects

WorkloadCustomer satisfaction

Features promised

Customerexpectations

Plannedfeatures

Time needed for defectsand new features

Don't overpromise

Recover

Probability that promises will be

fulfilled

Designdebt

Corners cut

Pressureto deliver

Defects

WorkloadCustomer satisfaction

Features promised

Customerexpectations

Plannedfeatures

Time needed for defectsand new features

CodeReview

Higher level interventions (1)

Work on a clear product vision product boxes release early

Shield team from customer interruptions no let's just do this customer proxy / product owner / product manager

Use more 'places to intervene in a system' but not too many

Change mental models what is development now? change the cultural pattern

Higher level interventions (2)

Creating a diagram of effects

1. tell the story ask questions, determine scope and focus question

2. collect variables observable or measurable behaviour over time

3. determine cause effect relations

4. look for loops reinforcing, stabilizing

5. simplify 7 2 variables - remove unrelated variables split up the diagram

6. identify possible interventions

Systems thinking in practice

Pitfall: it's only the perception of the group that makes the diagram

Involvement leads to buy-in for interventions

Diagram helps to explain it to others

It's all about storytelling

The diagram is a nice by-product

Don't obsess over your models

It's not just a ... problemIt's not just a ... problem

difficult issues are technical, difficult issues are technical, organizational and managerial organizational and managerial

all at onceall at oncelinear cause-effect linear cause-effect

thinking is not enoughthinking is not enough

root causes are usually root causes are usually systemicsystemic

blaming someone else blaming someone else does not solve itdoes not solve it

We need to look at

the whole system

Seriously

Background

Gerald M. Weinberg, Quality Software Management Vol. 1-4

Peter M. Senge, The Fifth Discipline (1993)

Linda Booth Sweeney & Dennis Meadows, Systems Thinking Playbook (1995)

Poppendieck, Implementing Lean Software Development (2006)

Kent Beck, eXtreme Programming Explained (1999)

Donella H. Meadows, Places to Intervene in a System (1997)

www.developerdotstar.com/mag/articles/places_intervene_system.html

Marc Evers & Willem van den Ende, Promise is Debt (2008)

www.systemsthinking.net/publications/promise_is_debt_6-2-2008.pdf

Credits

wicked weather by alexdecarvalho - flickr.com/photos/adc/423172478/

Point! by Lisamarie Babik - flickr.com/photos/78453620@N00/1448178195

Earth, courtesy Apollo 17, and probably the most reproduced image of all time by

woodleywonderworks - flickr.com/photos/wwworks/2222548359/in/photostream/

Our Milky Way Galaxy.. by Sir Mervs - flickr.com/photos/14150482@N02/2544902240

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING AT? by nolifebeforecoffee - flickr.com/photos/55279617@N00/124659356

Artistic Wormhole by Steve Jurvetson - flickr.com/photos/44124348109@N01/2490285058

Measuring time aussiegall - flickr.com/photos/aussiegall/286709039/

New Year's Resolution: 36/365 by Sasha Wolff flickr.com/photos/27786290@N05/3171917389

dog on treadmill by Anne Norman flickr.com/photos/29278394@N00/23844169

Free Loopy Colorful Background Wallpaper Creative Commons by D. Sharon Pruitt

flickr.com/photos/40645538@N00/447277429

Baker Hotel (half of it!) by Justin Cozart - flickr.com/photos/40011478@N00/2296478479

Which way? by Kevin Dooley flickr.com/photos/12836528@N00/2445707568

Flickr images were collected using QWAN Labs PhotoSuggest - labs.qwan.it/photosuggest

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