Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Changes in scope and depth in NC3...
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Transcript of Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work Changes in scope and depth in NC3...
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
Changes in scope and depth in NC3
The projections require:– wide range of competences and
agencies– presently 11 agencies involved
directly, agencies responsible sector integration
– experts from universities and consultants
•The objective to:– consider all sectors and all gases
Means
•Separate studies•Workshops•Seminars•Scrutinising by agencies and experts
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
The needs according to the guidelines
•Priorities on :– important sectors– policy and market implications– new information on development– integrated evaluation the effect of
policies and measures
The GHG emissions per sector, 1999
152%
229%
35%
40%
511%
60%
73% Energy
Transport
1. Energy (52%) 5. Agriculture (11%)
2. Transport (29%) 6. LULUCF (0)
3.Industry (5%) 7. Waste (3.2%)
4.Solvents (0.1%)
Agriculture
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
Basic approach
•With measures: – 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020
•Without measures:– 1990, 1995, 2000 2005, 2010
•With additional measures– Based on Government Commission
for a new climate strategy (2000) or GB
•Other Non-GHGs (Sox, NOx, VOCs)– Projections of the EU Acidification
and Ozone Strategy
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year
Emissions of GHG
Without
measures
B a U with sensitivity
scenariosWith additional measuresAggregated
effect of PaMs
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
Energy and transport
•CO2 (77 % of total GHG effect)– Consistency in GNP growth,
population and so forth– A number of scenarios to study effect
of energy supply system 2010-2020
•CH4 (1 % of total GHG effect)– Some new projection for vehicle
emissions
•N2O (3% of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis ?
Issues
•Phase-out of nuclear power •The energy supply system•Impact of emissions trading•Development of transport •Off-road vehicles and machinery
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
Industry
•CO2 (3 % of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis, expert
advice
•N2O (1% of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis ?
•HFCs, PFCs, SF6 (1 % of total GHG effect)
– projections with detailed information on the emission factors
Issues
•Rapid changes of actual emissions of HFCs, PCFs and SF6
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2012
kto
nn
es
CO
2-e
qv
HFCs
PFCs
SF6
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
Agriculture
•CH4 (5 % of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis ?
•N2O (6 % of total GHG effect)– Trend analysis ?
Issues
•Impact of CAP and Agenda 2000•Impact of national actions and markets•Poorly integrated in climate strategy
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
•CO2 (Sink about 33 % of total GHG emission)
– Net emissions from agricultural soils - No trends ??
– Net uptake in forest stock (above ground) - Based on models for biomass increment and market demands
Issues
•Impact of CAP•Impact of national actions and market•Poorly integrated in climate strategy
Projections of Swedish GHG emissions - current and planned work
Waste
•CH4 (4 % of total GHG emission)– Modeling of the impact of future
restrictions on depositing organic material
– Modeling on the impact of methane gas
– Time dependent decay of DOC in land fills
Issues
•Importance of household waste and industrial waste burning