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Projections and Total Effect of Measures: The Swiss experienceProjections and Total Effect of Measures: The Swiss experience

Contents

1. The Swiss energy scenarios

- Methodology

- Institutional arrangements

2. Other projections

3. What‘s new?

4. Problems in the last

communication

5. How we try to solve them

6. General issues

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications,

Bonn, 28.2 - 2.3. 2001

INFRAS, on behalf of Swiss Federal Office of Environment, Forests and Landscape

Markus Maibach

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The Swiss energy scenarios: MethodologyThe Swiss energy scenarios: Methodology

Aim: Aggregate basis for energy policy monitoring

Assumptions based on Swiss general scenarios (population, economic development etc.)

Bottom up data, specific model based forecasting

Specific measures are treated on an aggregate level

Transport is treated separately (based on specific traffic forecasts)

1990 to 2030 (1990 not temperature adjusted)

Basis for CO2-projections for energy related sources

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The scenariosThe scenarios Scenario I: Adopted measures

(cons. measures based on legislation and reasonable implementation

Scenario II: Proposed measures(cons. measures which are on the official political agenda)high probability to be adopted2a/2b: Different intension of measures (esp. energy production and pricing options)

Scenario III: Measures under consideration(cons. Measures which are proposed by popular initiatives)failed in the meantime

Scenario IV: Optimised goal oriented measuresLeast cost approach towards CO2-targets

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Major AssumptionsMajor AssumptionsPopulation

0

2'000'000

4'000'000

6'000'000

8'000'000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

GDP real prices 1980 (mn CHF/a)

0

50'000

100'000

150'000

200'000

250'000

300'000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Primary energy demand (TJ/a)

0

150'000

300'000

450'000

600'000

750'000

900'000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Investments in the building sector real prices 1980

(mn CHF/a)

0

10'000

20'000

30'00040'000

50'000

60'000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

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ResultsResults

CO2-Perspectives energy related sources

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

1990 2010 2030

CO

2 M

io t

Scenario I Scenario IIa Scenario IIb Scenario III

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Institutional arrangementsInstitutional arrangements Federal ministry of environment, transport, energy and

telecommunication is leading the process

Coordination with other ministries (population and economic development), as an input

Federal office of energy has contracted private institutes (permanent procedure)

Service for transport studies is in charge of transport forecasts

Federal office of environment (FOEFL) is involved

Updating procedure: Problem driven, based on policy changes

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Other projectionsOther projections Decentralised process, based on emission and input data

No specific institutional arrangementsFOEFL is leading agency

Most important: Air pollution emission forecasts, for transport and other sectors, mainly only considering adopted measures

Scenarios available for agriculture, at least for the main input data, depending on the development of the Swiss agriculture policy (In charge: Swiss federal office of agriculture)

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What‘s new?What‘s new? Updated scenario 1 for all energy related sources

(Adopted measures, considering the Swiss transport policy changes)

Adopted CO2-legislation (target oriented) is not considered yet

Scenario 3 (cons. popular initiatives of energy taxation) obsolete

New transport emission forecast (all GHG emissions and precursors)

Very good monitoring data (effects) of energy policy measures

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Problems occured during the reviewProblems occured during the review

Switzerland has no ‚without measures scenario‘.

The ‚with measures scenario‘ differs from inventory data, due to temperature adjustment and other minor issues.$

The effect of measures is only possible on a disaggregated level (individual impact studies)

Historic trend extrapolation for other sources as the main methodological input.

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How we treat these problems?How we treat these problems? A new basis for the scenario ‚adopted measures‘ with

improved data quality

Since we implemented new measures, there is a chance to show a general effect of new measure, by comparing with the old scenario 1.

Better use of impact studies (transport sector, energy measures, based on monitoring reports) to show the effect of measures.

Illustration of possible implementation paths of our CO2-legislation.

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Issues for discussionIssues for discussion What is an ‚adopted‘ measure?

Depends very much on the interpretation of legislation It is important to show uncertainties and range of

possibilities properly

Effect of measures:Bottom up aggregation is not equal to a general BAU-scenario (methodological inconsistencies) Clear and transparent reference to impact studies,

qualititative aggregate statement

Internal update procedure and UNFCCC requests:How to optimise synergies? ‚wrong official data‘ versus ‚true‘ inofficial data Show the officiality, and report progress within the

reviews