Projection of Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on the Korean Watersheds

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    Pxcomnrlck ca J|bxcicdlnPxcomnrlck ca J|bxcicdlnLfpgnr~ ca Nilfgrm Njgkdm ckLfpgnr~ ca Nilfgrm Njgkdm ck

    rjm Ecxmgk Tgrmx~jmb~rjm Ecxmgk Tgrmx~jmb~&& Pxmilflkgx| g~~m~~fmkrPxmilflkgx| g~~m~~fmkr & &

    J}lnjm}i O]KD*jnjo}kd@eml+xm+ex,

    Ecxmg Gbgprgrlck Nmkrmx acx Nilfgrm Njgkdm)Ecxmg Mkqlxckfmkr Lk~rlr}rm

    Rjm 8kb Kgrlckgi Tcxe~jcp ck Mnckcfln~ ca Nilfgrm Njgkdm gkbIct Ngxhck Dxctrj ^rxgrmdlm~ lk Kcxrjmg~r G~lg

    Dxgkb Gfhg~~gbcx Jcrmi) ^mc}i) Ecxmg) 7= Cnrchmx 8070

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    Tgxflkd rmfpmxgr}xm?^kctfmir x}kcaa tlii hm njgkdmb lk rlflkd gkb rjm pmge qci}fmTgrmx ~}ppilm~ axcf dignlmx~ gkb ~kct ncqmx gxm pxcomnrmb rc bmnilkmTgrmx w}gilr| gkb gw}grln mnc~|~rmf nc}ib hm bmrmxlcxgrmb b}m rc lknxmg~lkdtgrmx rmfpmxgr}xm

    Lkrmk~la|lkd j|bxcicdlngi n|nim?70&20- lknxmg~m ca gqglighim tgrmx xm~c}xnm~ *GTX, gr jldj igrlr}bm gkb lk~cfm tmr rxcpln xmdlck~5 70&>0- bmnxmg~m cqmx bx| xmdlck~ gr flb&igrlr}bm gkblk rjm bx| rxcpln~Bxc}djr&gaamnrmb gxmg~ tlii ilemi| lknxmg~m lk mzrmkrJmgq| xglkagii mqmkr~ *aiccb xl~e, gxm ilemi| rc lknxmg~m lk axmw}mkn| gkbfgdklr}bm

    Xl~lkd ~mg imqmi?Ncg~rgi fmdg nlrlm~ gxm q}ikmxghim gkb tgrmx ~}ppilm~ axcf dxc}kb tgrmx tlii hmxm~rxlnrmb b}m rc ~mg tgrmx lkrx}~lck kmgx ncg~rgi xmdlck

    Lfpgnr~ ca nilfgrm njgkdm ckdichgi axm~jtgrmx xm~c}xnm~ *LPNN GX2) TD&LL) PF) 8004,

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    Lknxmg~m~ lk tgrmx ~ngxnlr| *EFG XNF G8 ~nmkgxlc, ?72- lknxmg~m ca fmgk gkk}gi pxmnlplrgrlck gkb %>+12

    N lknxmg~m ca fmgkgkk}gi rmfpmxgr}xm *8017&80> z 70 < rck # |x lk8010~ *cqmx rjm ~rcxgdm ca ^c|gkdgkd Bgf) 8< z 70 < rck ,

    X}kcaa bmnxmg~m lk Kgnebckd *&8+2-,) Dm}f *&7>+>-,) \c}kd~gk *&70+:-, lk 8010~

    Lknxmg~m~ lk mzrxmfm mqmkr~?Lknxmg~m lk axmw}mkn| ca jmgq| xglkagii

    8+4 rlfm~ *700 ff#b,n}xxmkr 700|x xmr}xk pmxlcb xglkagii =: |x

    Lknxmg~m lk axmw}mkn| ca bxc}djr |mgx~>+2 rlfm~) =4- bmnxmg~m ca x}kcaa

    Lfpgnr~ ca nilfgrm njgkdm ckEcxmgk tgrmx xm~c}xnm~ *O}km 8070 h| FIRF,

    >

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    G~~m~~lkd pcrmkrlgi j|bxcicdlngi lfpgnr~ ca nilfgrm njgkdmck Ecxmgk tgrmx~jmb~

    Rc lbmkrla| rjm ~pgrlgi bl~rxlh}rlck~ ca j|bxcicdlngi jcr&~pcr~ *a}r}xm x}kcaa) aiccb gkb bxc}djr mqmkr~,Rc mqgi}grm rjm a}r}xm lfpgnr~ m~rlfgrmb h| FIRFRc mqgi}grm mnc~|~rmf nckrxlh}rlck rc a}r}xm x}kcaa njgkdm~

    Ghc}r 40- ca rjm Ecxmgk pmklk~}ig l~ cnn}plmb h| acxm~r~5 Ghc}r 42- ca gkk}gi pxmnlplrgrlck *6 7)841 z 70 : rck # |x) 72+2 Flzmb) 87+1 Nxcpigkb) 80+>

    Tgrmx) >+7

    Hlir&}p) 8+8Bmnlb}c}~

    ) 74+=

    0- 70- 80- >0- 20- =0- 10- 40- :0-

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    =

    C}rilkm ca lfpgnr g~~m~~fmkr

    =

    =

    Bmalkm gkb bmqmicp dmcdxgpjln gkb mncicdlngi ~ncpm ca Ecxmgk Bmalkm gkb bmqmicp dmcdxgpjln gkb mncicdlngi ~ncpm ca Ecxmgkmnc~|~rmf gkb tgrmx~jmb~mnc~|~rmf gkb tgrmx~jmb~

    Bmqmicpfmkr gkb mqgi}grlck ca nilfgrm njgkdm ~nmkgxlc~ *=ef

    xm~ci}rlck,

    ^rcnjg~rln tmgrjmxdmkmxgrlck tlrj fckrji|

    nilfgrm

    Grfc~pjmxln NC 8ncknmkrxgrlck

    Rjxmgr~ rc jghlrgr gkbhlcblqmx~lr|

    Rjxmgr~ rc j|bxcicdlngia}knrlck Fcbmi ngilhxgrlck

    gkbpgxgfmrmxl grlck

    A}r}xm Igkb gkbQmdmrgrlck Ncqmx

    Bgrghg~m

    G DL^&hg~mb J|bxcicdlngiFcbmi

    Igkb fgkgdmfmkrgkb nck~mxqgrlck

    ~rxgrmd|

    Njgkdm~ lk j|bxcicdlngi Njgkdm~ lk j|bxcicdlngi xm~pck~m~ lk tgrmx~jmb~ xm~pck~m~ lk tgrmx~jmb~ Njgkdm~ lk tgrmx gqglighlilr| Njgkdm~ lk aiccb mqmkr~ gkb lkrmk~lr| Njgkdm~ lk bxc}djr mqmkr~ gkb

    lkrmk~lr|

    Njgkdm~ lk hlcblqmx~lr| gkb Njgkdm~ lk hlcblqmx~lr| gkb nck~mxqgrlck ~rgr}~ nck~mxqgrlck ~rgr}~ Njgkdm~ lk pcrmkrlgi qmdmrgrlck Mzrmkr~) nckrlk}lr| gkb axgdfmkrgrlck

    ca xmfglklkd acxm~r ncqmx Njgkdm~ lk igkb }~m giicngrlck

    Bmalkm Mncicdlngi gkb Bmalkm Mncicdlngi gkb J|bxcicdlngi Jcr J|bxcicdlngi Jcr& &~pcr~ ~pcr~

    acx lfpimfmkrlkdgbgprgrlck ~rxgrmdlm~

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    Rjm > gxn ~mnckb *ghc}r

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    G bmrmxflkl~rln) pxcnm~~&cxlmkrmb) bl~rxlh}rmb pgxgfmrmx j|bxcicdln fcbmihg~mb ck 7B&^QGR HXCCE

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    ngilhxgrlckqgilbgrlck

    x8&ngi+ 6 0+00

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    ngilhxgrlckqgilbgrlck

    J+^mcfolkdgkdbgf

    Ch~mxqmb fckrji| x}kcaa *ff,

    0 700 800 >00 200 =00

    ^ l f } i g r m b f c k

    r j i | x } k c

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    ngilhxgrlckqgilbgrlck

    x8&ngi+ 6 0+

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    Fcbmi qgilbgrlck *8,? Dmkmxgrmb bgli| lkp}r~

    Fckrji| aict gkb fcbmi maalnlmkn| }~lkd dmkmxgrmb bgli| nilfgrmFckrji| fmgk hlg~ mxxcx? &:{0+= - *7< ~rgrlck~,Fckrji| aict x 8 ? 0+ # f c k

    r j ,

    0+007

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    70

    Fckrji| fmgk aictFckrji| W #fckrjX8 6 0+

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    Fcbmi qgilbgrlck *>,? Gkk}gi x}kcaa m~rlfgrlck

    Gxmg XC # P

    *7000ef 8, O}k+&^mp+ Cnr+&Fg| Gkk}gi O}k+&^mp+ Cnr+&Fg| Gkk}gi *&, P XCXCE 21+< 8>+> 40+8 0+=>< 1=+:- 11+:-BPE 788+= 4=+< >7+: 704+: >:+> 74+< =1+> 0+=88 40+2- 1:+7-

    Pxmnlplrgrlck) P *ff, X}kcaa) XC *ff, O}k+&^mp+ axgnrlck*ef >, *ef >,

    Gkk}gi fmgkx}kcaa *ff#|mgx,

    >0&|mgx fmgk gkk}gi pxmnlplrgrlck *P, gkb x}kcaa *XC,

    J g k K g e b c k d D m } f m c f o l k \ m c k d ~ g k G k ~

    m c k d n j m c k g p

    d | c n j m c k F g k d | m c k d B c k d o l k J | m

    c k d ~ g k M g ~ r n c g ~ r

    T m ~ r n c g ~

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    Xmpcxrmb XC*$1

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    7>

    A}r}xm nilfgrm njgkdm ~nmkgxlc~

    O}k+&^mp+ Cnr+&Fg| Gkk}gi O}k+&^mp+ Cnr+&Fg| Gkk}gi O}k+&^mp+ Cnr+&Fg| Gkk}gi O}k+&^mp+ Cnr+&Fg| Gkk}giXCE 7+1 8+1 8+> 28+7 2+0 82+2 8+0 >+7 8+4 71+< &=+7 1+4BPE 7+= >+0 8+= >4+0 80+2 >0+< 8+> >+= >+7 7&80=0, 80+12

    N lknxmg~m ca fmgk gkk}girmfpmxgr}xm *8017&80 G8&MNJGF*RGX,g82 G8&JGBNF*RGX,g8= G8 &KNGXPNF*RGX,g81 G8&NNNFG*GX2,g84 G8&N^LXC*GX2,g8: G8&MNJGF*GX2,g8< G8&DABI*GX2,

    h7 H7&N LXC*RGX,h87 H8&NNNFG*RGX,h88 H8&N LXC*RGX,h8> H8&MNJGF*RGX,h82 H8&JGBNF*RGX,h8= H8&KNGXPNF*RGX,x20 G8&FXL*XNF,8020~x

    g82

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    g81g84

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    g8 2 =

    g77

    g7h

    g87

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    g8>

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    g8=

    g81g84

    g8:

    g87&80=0, BPE *80>7&80=0,

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    Hg~m ~nmkgxlc *7+4-) BPE? 74+4-FLXCN G7H? XCE >=+8-) BPE? 22+

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    7=

    Njgkdm~ lk Fmgk Gkk}gi X}kcaa h| 8020~ #80-

    21+1-

    &8+=-

    &74+ # | m g x ,

    &>0-

    &80-

    &70-

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    m l k g k k } g i x } k c

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    G, 80&|mgx fmgk *80>7&80=0,>4+=-

    >=+7-

    77+0-1+=- =+:-

    &4+4-

    70+=-

    &7=++8-

    &80

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    XCE BPE XCE BPE XCE BPE XCE BPE XCE BPE XCE BPE

    FXLXNF&G8 Flnxc&G7H n~lxc&G7 n~lxc&G8 n~lxc&H7 n~lxc&H8

    N j g k d m

    l k x } k c

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    -njgkdm

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    71

    L+XCE&D|mckd~gkd

    O A F G F O O G ^ C K B

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    8020~80

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    74

    L+XCE&D|mckd~gkd

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    8020~8000

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    8020~80

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    Njgkdm~ lk bxc}djr xl~e aict *80:7&8700,?FXL&XNF G8? XCE &=+2{&72+4-) BPE? &78+>-)

    FLXCN G7H? Kckm

    Nilfgrm njgkdm lfpgnr~ ck mzrxmfm aict~ *8,?Bxc}djr xl~e aict

    7-) BPE 82- ca

    lkigkb gxmg

    Nilfgrm njgkdm lfpgnr~ ck mzrxmfm aict~ *>,?Pcrmkrlgi xl~e gxmg~

    80

    8020~ *80>7&80=0, 80

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    X}kcaa njgkdm~ lk rjm ~mimnr mldjr acxm~rmb tgrmx~jmb~ *8>- ca rjm tjcim kgrlck, h| 80:7&8700Rjxmm kcqmi gppxcgnjm~ rc mqgi}grm rjm mnc~|~rmf nckrxlh}rlckrc a}r}xm x}kcaa lknxmg~mNg~m N? Nilfgrm njgkdm cki| *FXLXNF&G8 ~nmkgxlc,

    Ng~m NP? N % Pj|~lcicdlngi acxnlkd) P*Grfc~pjmxln NC 8 nckn)+ 6400ppfq+,Ng~m NPQ? NP % Qmdmrgrlck bl~rxlh}rlck njgkdm) Q *>=- lknxmg~m~ lk rjmbmnlb}c}~ acxm~r axgnrlck,

    Mnc~|~rmf Nckrxlh}rlck rc X}kcaa Njgkdm *7,?Mzpmxlfmkr ~mrrlkd

    87

    Qgxlghim~ ^\ JT NO KD JN GB BN ^O Fmgk

    R*

    N, >+0 8+: 8+< 8+: 8+: 8+< 8+4 8+1 8+:P*-, 77+2- 72+1- 71+>- 4+7- 1+4- 88+7- 7>+4- 7>+8- 7>+7-T lkb*-, 0+8- &0+7- 0+7- &0+>- &0+7- 0+=- &0+4- &7+1- &0+>-J }flblr|*-, 7:+4- 74+4- 7:+0- 74+1- 74+4- 74+:- 71+:- 71+4- 74+1-Xgblgrlck*-, 7+0- 0+=- 7+:- &0+>- 0+7- 0+4- 0+:- 0+2- 0+1-

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    Nilfgrm njgkdm gickm? 78- *8{74-, lknxmg~m lk x}kcaa NP njgkdm? 71- *={>8-, lknxmg~m lk x}kcaa

    NPQ njgkdm? 74- *:{8:-, lknxmg~m lk x}kcaa

    Lknxmg~mb NC8 maamnr ck x}kcaa? >+>- *7+7{4+4-,

    Lknxmg~mb NC8 gkb bmnlb}c}~ acxm~r~ maamnr~? =+0- *8+={70+:-,

    Mnc~|~rmf Nckrxlh}rlck rc X}kcaa Njgkdm *8,?Xm~}ir~

    88

    | 6 0+

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    X}kcaa rmkb~ rc hm lknxmg~mb lk tm~rmxk ncg~rgi xmdlck ca rjm pmklk~}iggkb }ppmx lkrmxlcx xmdlck ca rjm Jgk Xlqmx Hg~lk gxc}kb rjm Dtgkdtckpxcqlknm+

    Mzrxmfm aict~ rmkb rc hm lknxmg~mb lk fgxlrlfm pgxr~ ca rjm pmklk~}ig +Aiccb~ fg| hm lknxmg~mb cqmx rjm tjcim pmklk~}ig) m~pmnlgii| tm~rmxkncg~rgi xmdlck gkb Kcxrj Ecxmg) hmng}~m ca lknxmg~m~ ca rjm jmgq| xglkagiilk ~}ffmx ~mg~ck+

    Ict aict gi~c rmkb~ rc hm lknxmg~mb jctmqmx rjm tm~rmxk ncg~rgi xmdlckca rjm pmklk~}ig gkb rjm flbbim pgxr~ ca rjm Jgk Xlqmx hg~lk gxm ~jctlkdxmb}nmb ict aict h| 80

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    82

    Nckni}blkd xmfgxe~

    ^mxlc}~ njgkdm~ lk mzrxmfm mqmkr~ gxm ncknmxkmb gkb tgrmx~ngxnm xmdlck lk rjm a}r}xm l~ hg~lngii| ncxxm~pckblkd rc mzlrlkdjcr&~pcr~ kmgx rjm ncg~rgi xmdlckLk cxbmx rc pxcqlbm }~ma}i lkacxfgrlck acx lfpgnr gkbgbgprgrlck g~~m~~fmkr ~r}blm~)

    Rjm }knmxrglkrlm~ lk xmdlckgi nilfgrm pxcomnrlck~ kmmb rca}ii| njgxgnrmxl mb gkb xmb}nmb *pxchghlil~rln g~~m~~fmkr,Rjm xcim ca mnc~|~rmf *gkb n}xxmkr ~cnlc&mnckcflngnrlqlrlm~, ~jc}ib hm nck~lbmxmb lk rjm fcbmilkd axgfmtcxe *m+d+) BGF h}liblkd) }klalngrlck lk rjm kmgx a}r}xm)lkrmdxgrlck ca j}fgk tgrmx ~mn}xlr| gkb xlqmx hlcblqmx~lr|mrn+,