Projection of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO...
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Transcript of Projection of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO...
![Page 1: Projection of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) since 1750: far exceed pre-industrial.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f115503460f94c23d7a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Projection of Global Climate Change
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Review of last lecture
• Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) since 1750: far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice core measurements spanning the last 650,000 years. Lead to strong radiative heating.
• Mainly caused by CO2 fossil fuel use.
• The developed countries and developing countries contribute almost equally to the emissions of GHGs.
• Observed change of mean: air temperature, ocean temperature, melting of arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, snow and glaciers, rising of sea level.
• Observed change of extreme events: extreme precipitation events, heat waves, strongest hurricanes
![Page 3: Projection of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) since 1750: far exceed pre-industrial.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f115503460f94c23d7a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The most common atmospheric circulation structure
L
H
H
L
HeatingCoolingor No Heating
Imbalance of heating Imbalance of temperature Imbalance of pressure Wind
Radiation Convection Conduction
Latent/Sensible
BiosphereLand/Ocean/Ice/
Stratosphere Feedback
Greenhouse Gases
Pollution
Clouds Precipitation (Latent heat)
![Page 4: Projection of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) since 1750: far exceed pre-industrial.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f115503460f94c23d7a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Coupler .
Land
Sea Ice
Atmosphere
Ocean
Framework of Earth System Model
Biogeochemistry
• Include 5 components: atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice, biogeochemistry• Based on the conservation laws of mass, energy, momentum, water vapor and other
chemical species (e.g. CO2, CH4)• Based on future assumptions of external forcing (GHG concentrations, solar
variability, pollution, land use changes)
![Page 5: Projection of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) since 1750: far exceed pre-industrial.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f115503460f94c23d7a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Can the GCMs Reproduce the 20th Century Temperature Trend?
The GCMs can reproduce the 20th century temperature trend
The warming is caused by anthropogenic forcings!
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Simulations for Different Regions: Warming is caused by anthropogenic forcings
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Our choice of the future: Emission scenarios
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Projected Change in Global Mean Temperature
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Global map of projected change Temperature: Largest warming over Arctic, larger over land
Precipitation: Increase in tropics/poles, decrease in mid-latitudes
![Page 10: Projection of Global Climate Change. Review of last lecture Rapid increase of greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) since 1750: far exceed pre-industrial.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081603/56649f115503460f94c23d7a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Video: Six Degrees Could Change the World
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_pb1G2wIoA
(Carbon footprint 20:00-)
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Number of Days over
100 oF
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Vertical Structure of Projected Warming (Averaged over each latitude)
Atmosphere:
Tropical amplification (Glaciers, disease, …)
Polar amplification (Ice, sea level)
Ocean: Large warming goes down to ~1000 m (ecosystems)
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Projected change of sea ice and ocean
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Projected Change in Global Sea Level
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Other examples: • Nile Delta – 1m rise affects 6,000,000 people• Florida, Louisiana - population centers, wetlands, tourism
1.5m rise expected 150 years from now(United Nations Environmental Program)
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New York City under a 3-5m sea level rise
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Projected Change in Precipitation: Increase in tropics and high latitudes, decrease in
mid-latitudes
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Impacts on fresh water
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Impacts on ecosystems
4.0 oC
3.0 oC
Poison ivy loves CO2
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Attribution of Projected Temperature Change: Mainly caused by anthropogenic forcings
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Summary
• Global climate models: Earth system models (5 components)• Global climate models can reproduce the observed warming
in the 20th century. The warming is largely caused by human activities.
• Projected change: mean temperature (largest warming over Arctic, larger over land), mean precipitation, sea level, extreme temperature, extreme precipitation, fresh water, ecosystems
• Future climate scenarios show that reducing greenhouse gas emissions can substantially mitigate warming in the latter half of this century.
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Work cited• http
://intercongreen.com/2010/03/15/green-building-ebbs-slightly-in-recession-but-sentiment-remains-strong/
• http://nimbuseco.com/2013/01/deforestation-and-pollution-facts/ • http://greenbalkans.org/category.php?language=en_EN&cat_id=63 • http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/ia/newsroom/releases/?cid=
nrcs142p2_011847 • http://www.csiro.au/en/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-record/Megan-Clark-presentation-2
0090526-generating-industries/Post-Combustion-Carbon-Capture.aspx
• http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2005/09/the_consumer_dr.html • http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/human-health • http://yosemite.epa.gov/ee/epa/eerm.nsf/vwAN/EE-0564-112.pdf/$file/EE-0564-
112.pdf • http://livinggreenmag.com/2012/06/13/climate-change/scientists-warn-that-earth-is-
close-to-climate-tipping-point/ • http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/29/opinion/mystreet-digital-anthropology/ • http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World-airline-routemap-2009.png