Projecting delay and compression of mortality Anastasios … · 2017. 5. 23. · 4 th HMD...
Transcript of Projecting delay and compression of mortality Anastasios … · 2017. 5. 23. · 4 th HMD...
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 1
Projecting delay and compression of mortality
Anastasios Bardoutsos
(joint work with J. de Beer & F. Janssen)
University of Groningen
Faculty of Spatial Sciences
Population Research Center
4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin
Research project �Smoking, alcohol and obesity - ingredients for
improved and robust mortality projections� funded by NetherlandsOrganisation for Scienti�c Research (NWO)(grant no. 452-13-001)
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 2
Motivation
� the importance of mortality delay and compression,
� literature on mortality projection using age-at-death distribution israre,
� compression is not steady over all ages,
� modal age increases in parallel with life expectancy at birth.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 3
Simulation of mortality delay
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 4
Simulation of mortality compression
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 5
Objectives
-Present a model that decomposes delay and compression.
-Projecting mortality delay and compression.
-Distinguish mortality compression in young, adult, and advancedages.
-Comparison with Lee-Carter model.
-Case studies: Japan, France & USA (both genders).
-Data: from 1960-2014 and ages from 0-100.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +Teenage years+Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Non-linear model.
� Parameters constraints:0 < At < 1,B > 0, 0 < αt < 1, 0 < g < 1, β1,t > 0, β2 > 0, β3,t > 0& h > 0.
� We present the CoDe 2.1 version.
� Continuous version of the CoDe model (de Beer & Janssen, 2016).
� Describes the full age pattern of mortality and assesses mortalitydelay and compression.
� Applied to unsmoothed data from HMD.
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +Teenage years+Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +Teenage years+Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +
Teenage years+Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +Teenage years+
Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +Teenage years+Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +Teenage years+Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +Teenage years+Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 6
The (Co)mpression (De)lay model (CoDe)
qx,t :=At
x · B + 1+ αt ·
ex−zt
1+ ex−zt+
bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt)
1+ g−1 · bx,t · ebx,t ·(x−Mt),
with bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
� Decomposition of the model:
Youngest ages +Teenage years+Adult and old ages
� Following Kannisto (1994) and Thatcher (1999) we assumed alogistic function for adult and old age mortality with
slope age and time dependent
� Death probabilities at very old ages (x → +∞) are equal to g .
� Trivial extrapolation to ages beyond age sample.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 7
bx,t := β1,t +β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h)
1+ β−1
3,t · β2 · eβ2·(x−Mt+h).
β1,t
β3,1960
β3,2014
0.10
0.12
0.14
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
Age (x)
b x,t
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 8
Fit of CoDe 2.1 model: dx
� For the �tting of CoDe 2.1 we used the Di�erential Evolution (DE)algorithm (RcppDE package in R).
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 9
Projections
For the CoDe 2.1 model:
� For the projections of time dependent parameters we used ARIMAmodels.
� Dependency is established through dependent errors, modeled by amultivariave normal distribution.
� To ensure that the corresponding projections will satisfy theconstraints we transformed the parameters (e.g logit At).
� Out of sample projections 40 years (i.e. 2014-2054).
� Backtesting: three periodsi. Short (5 years), ii. Middle (10 years), iii. Long (15 years).
For the LC model:
� We used SVD to �t the model and RW to project the timedependent parameter.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 10
In-sample comparison: Japan dx .
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 11
Out-of-sample comparison: Japan dx .
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 12
Out-of-sample comparison: Modal age (Mt).
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 13
Out-of-sample comparison: Japan Mt .
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 14
Backtest comparison: Males Mt .
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 15
Conclusion
When there is both compression and delay, the Lee-Carter model projects a slowdown of delay,whereas the CoDe 2.1 model projects a continuationof delay.
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 16
Future work
� comparison with other mortality models,
� a multi-population version of the CoDe model,
� apply CoDe model to cohort data,
� include smoking, alcohol and obesity epidemics,
� R package,
� ...
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4th HMD symposium, May 22-23, Berlin | 17
Thank you for your attention!
Research project �Smoking, alcohol and obesity - ingredients for improved
and robust mortality projections� funded by Netherlands Organisation forScienti�c Research (NWO)(grant no. 452-13-001)
www.futuremortality.com