Project X - BPC Ingredient Analysis

8/12/2019 Project X - BPC Ingredient Analysis

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Patrick Harlow31.08.2012

Patrick Pat Harlow Philadelphia

USA

Project xxxx

BEAUTY & PERSONAL CARE

NORTH AMERICA

CATEGORY & INGREDIENT ANALYSIS


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Patrick Harlow, 31.08.2012 Patrick Pat Harlow

Philadelphia USA

Project xxx - Recap

Confidential, xxx- BPC Ingredient Analysis2

Project xxxspurpose is to identify and execute strategies to double xxx North AmericasBeauty & Personal Care ingredient sales within 5 years.

Tactics include:

Tapping into consumer mega trends and exploiting growth based on these trendsthrough increased and in-depth application know-how.

Improving regional innovation rate by having a stronger and more focused productdevelopment and application expertise.

Rebranding and re-establishing xxxsposition in North America by clearlydemonstrating to our customers that NA is a focus region for xxxx

There are three major consumer mega trends that we believe are key to understand andcapitalize on in order for xxx NORAM to achieve its goals:

Health and Wellness

Cost Effectiveness

Green and Natural

The next stage of the project was identified as:

Determining the BPC categories, sub-categories, and segments which are the best fitfor our portfolio and offer the best growth potential.

Determine what the gap is in our portfolio to maximize share in these product types.


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Executive Overview Project xxx BPC Ingredient Analysis


The analysis shows that a focus on specific categories is not the right approach for xxx interms of strategic planning.

There are common segments that capitalize on xxxsportfolio and capabilities across anumber of categories though. Narrowing the focus to the segment level should prove moreeffective in meeting our 5 year goal.

Examples include lotions in the Skin Care, Mens Grooming, Baby/Child Products, and SunCare categories or shampoo in several categories.

Emollients, Emulsifiers & Co-Emulsifiers, Humectants, Conditioning Agents (Skin, Hair,

Fabric), and Surfactant Cleansers & Adjuvants are prominent ingredients found acrosscategories.

Although we currently have ingredients in these functional areas, there are severalingredients within them that show promising growth and volumes, but we do not make.

There are categories that should not be focused on. Colour Cosmetics, Fragrances,Depilatories, Deodorants, and Oral Care mainly consist of ingredients that are not a good

match for our portfolio. A common theme is the projected growth of premium product sales. An expected

improvement in the economy, an ageing population that wants to look the age they feel,combined with product innovation is expected to attract consumers to buy premium ormasstige BPC products; most notably, Anti-Agers.

The added costs associated with improved features and benefits will be an acceptable

expenditure to future BPC consumers. This will in turn, fuel BPC sales growth.Source: Euromonitor


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All data is sourced from Euromonitor International.

Data is forecasted using a 2011 to 2016 time period.

Premium Cosmetics and Premium Products are an aggregation of BPC products. The distinctionbetween mass market and premium is price, label/positioning, and distribution.

- An example is the Anti-Ager segment; made up of the combination of Premium and Mass Anti-Agers.

- Este Lauders Creme De La Mer Moisturizing Cream 1 fl oz is a Premium Anti-Ager found indepartment stores, retailing for $135.00.

- Olay Regenerist Daily Serum 1.7 fl oz is a Mass Anti-Ager found in drugstores, retailing for$21.99.

- Sales for both products are included in the Anti-Ager segment.

Premium Cosmetics includes the following categories and sub-categories:

Parameters

- Premium Baby & Child-specific Products

- Premium Bath and Shower- Premium Colour Cosmetics

- Premium Deodorants

- Premium Fragrances

- Premium Hair Care

- Premium Skin Care

- Premium Body Care- Facial Care

- Hand Care

- Premium Sun Care

- Premium Sets/Kits

In this analysis, Premium Colour Cosmetics, Deodorants, and Fragrances have been

excluded.


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BPC Key Growth Categories The 2 largest categories, Skin and Hair Care are expected to grow by US$1.8BB & US$1.4BB respectively;

based on 201116 $ growth.

A key product class is Premium Cosmetics with a 24.6% projected growth. Its value growth of US$1.5BB,driven primarily by Hair and Skin Care, complements the xxx portfolio well.

Bath & Shower and Mens Grooming are nearly identical in future potential, coming in at value growth ofUS$76MM and US$72MM in that order.


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Skin Care Category Forecasted Growth


Skin Care is comprised of 3 sub-categories; Facial Care, Body Care, & Hand Care.

In 2016, Facial Care will make up 80% of category sales. Body and Hand will be 19% and 1% respectively.

Facial Care sales are projected at $9.8BB in 2016, The sub-category is projected to grow at a higher rate thanthe others with a 19.2% increase in sales , a CAGR of 3.6%, and US$1.57BB in incremental sales. Anti-Agersalone, are projected to grow by US$909MM

Facial Care is made up of 7 segments. The chart below compares the forecasted growth by segment:


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Facial Moisturizers and Cleansers Chemical Breakdown Moisturizers are forecasted at US$1.95BB in 2016 growing 14.3% from 2011. Chemically, growth is flat

and is made up primarily of:

Emollients at 2016 tonnes of 554.7 growing 3.4 tonnes (1116), consisting of:

Cyclomethicone at 241.5 tonnes, Paraffins (Emollients) at 91.6, Dimethicones (Emollients) at

77.1, Emollient Esters at 56.7, and Other Emollients at 53.7 tonnes.

Humectants at 448.1 tonnes growing by 2.8 tonnes. Glycerol makes up 86% of sales.

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers at 189.8 tonnes growing 1.2 tonnes, made up of:

Mono and Diglycerides of Fatty Acids at 66.6, Fatty Alcohols at 52.5, Fatty Esters at 29.5, and

Sorbitan Esters of Fatty Acids at 21.5 tonnes.

Cleansers are forecasted at US$1.69BB with growth of 13.6%. Minimal growth of chemical sales in:

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants at 1,768.2 tonnes growing by 42.6 tonnes. Made up of:

Alkyl Isethionates at 911.6 tonnes growing by 34.5, Alkoxylated Fatty Alcohols at 451.3, AlkylAmido Alkyl Betaines at 207.0, and Sarcosinates/Sarcosines at 159.1 tonnes; all with flat growth.

Emollients with 2016 tonnes of 1,676.6 growing 51.1 tonnes. Made up of:

Paraffins (Emollients) at 836.4 growing 21.0, Emollient Esters at 719.9 growing by 25.7.

Humectants at 1,387.6 tonnes will grow 35.5 split by Glycerol of 847.6 at +17.4 tonnes and

.Butylene Glycol of 540.1 at +18.1 tonnes.



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Hair Care Category - Chemical Breakdown (cont)


Shampoo ingredient growth is flat at (-0.2%) CAGR, with all ingredient volumes to experience negligibledeclines. There are significant volumes to be sold in 2016. Key ones include:

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants at 40,230.9 tonnes made up of: Alkyl Ether Sulphates at 28,090.6, Alkyl Sulphates at 6,442.0, Alkyl Amido Alkyl Betaines at

2,655.9, and Alkanolamides at 2,397.8 tonnes.

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers at 3,680.7 tonnes made up if:

Alkoxylated Fatty Esters at 2,320.4 and Fatty Alcohols at 1,360.2.

Conditioning Agents (Skin, Hair, Fabric) at 2,249.7 consisting of:

Silicones (Conditioning Agents) at 1,679.6 and Dimethicones (Conditioning agents) at 560.2tonnes.

Preservatives/Antioxidants at 857.3 tonnes made up of:

Benzoic Acid/Benzoate at 600.0, and Hydantoin at 120.9 tonnes.

Conditioners, also flat at 0.2% have 3 potential functional areas for xxx products:

Conditioning Agents (Skin, Hair, Fabric) at 7,232.9 tonnes and 72.1 in growth made up of:

Silicones (Conditioning Agents) at 4,640.5 and +46.3 tonnes, Monoalkyl Quats at 1,511.0, andAlkylamidopropylamines at 994.5.

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers at 6,385.4 and +63.7 with:

Fatty Alcohols making up 5,785.9, and Mono-and Diglycerides of Fatty Acids at 452.4 tonnes.

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants at 763.3 with 93% consisting of Alkoxylated Fatty Alcohols.


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Premium Cosmetics Forecasted Growth


Showing the extent of the move to innovative, premium priced products, Premium Cosmetic segments hit

high marks in the power ranking. Facial Care is #3, Anti-Agers are #6, and Hair Care is at #13.

Premium Facial Care will make up 40% of the segments sales in 16. Premium CAGR will be 5.1% vs.Mass at 3.7%, and period growth will be 28.3% vs. the Mass gain of 19.7%.

Premium Anti-Agers will be 50% of segment sales with a CAGR of 7.2% and period growth of 41.4%.

Mass Anti-Agers will see a CAGR of 4.3% and period growth of 23.5%.

Premium Hair Care at 30% of sales will experience 4.2% CAGR and 22.7% period growth. Mass will see a

2.0% CAGR and 10.5% growth.

Categories Sub-Categories 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016% Growth

2011 - '16

Premium Cosmetics Premium Facial Care 2,946.9 3,124.4 3,268.5 3,406.4 3,576.1 3,782.9 28.4%

Premium Cosmetics Premium Anti-Agers 1,288.3 1,401.1 1,489.8 1,580.0 1,691.5 1,824.4 41.6%

Premium Cosmetics Premium Hair Care 2,519.1 2,692.9 2,786.2 2,871.9 2,986.0 3,096.5 22.9%


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Bath & Shower - Forecasted Growth (cont)


The 5 other segments consist of Bar Soap, Liquid Soap, Intimate Hygiene, Talcum Powder, and BathAdditives.

Despite steady sales declines, Bar Soap, Liquid Soap, and Bath Additives are very large segments.

Projected sales in 2016 for Bar Soap are US$1.44BB, Liquid Soap is US$969.3MM, and for Additives,US$641.8MM.


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Bath & Shower - Chemical Breakdown (cont)


Bar Soap ingredients are projected to experience a (-2.4%) declining CAGR and all volumes are expectedto decrease. The segment is huge, so ingredients are still a big opportunity. Key ingredient opportunitiesare:

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants at 11,946.3 tonnes in 2016.

Alkyl Isethionates at 11,328.6, Linear Alkylbenzene Sulphonate at 391.4, and Alkyl Amido AlkylBetaines at 195.7.

Humectants at 8,433.7 tonnes with 99% made up of Glycerol.

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers at 232.1 primarily of Fatty Esters at 191.9.

Preservatives/Antioxidants at 152.3 made up of 140.6 tonnes of Other Preservatives/Antioxidants.

Liquid Soap is expecting a 2.2% CAGR gain in ingredient sales despite the fall in product sales.Ingredients that will benefit:

North America - In Tonnes

Products by Ingredient 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011-16 %2011-16

CAGR %

2011-16

Absolute

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants 22,194.8 22, 773. 3 23, 259. 4 23, 650. 6 24, 181. 6 24, 725. 4 11. 4 2. 2 2, 530. 7

-Alkanolamides 208.2 213.6 218.2 221.9 226.8 231.9 11.4 2.2 23.7

-Alkyl Amido Alkyl Betaines 4,439.4 4,555.1 4,652.3 4,730.5 4,836.8 4,945.5 11.4 2.2 506.2 -Alkyl Ether Sulphates 6,518.4 6,688.3 6,831.1 6,946.0 7,101.9 7,261.6 11.4 2.2 743.2

-Alkyl Isethionates 2,426.4 2,489.6 2,542.8 2,585.5 2,643.6 2,703.0 11.4 2.2 276.7

-Alkyl Polyglucosides 2,700.7 2,771.0 2,830.2 2,877.8 2,942.4 3,008.6 11.4 2.2 307.9

-Alkyl Sulphates 108.1 110.9 113.3 115.2 117.8 120.4 11.4 2.2 12.3

-Amphodiacetates 2,426.4 2,489.6 2,542.8 2,585.5 2,643.6 2,703.0 11.4 2.2 276.7

-Linear Alkylbenzene Sulphonate 940.9 965.4 986.1 1,002.6 1,025.2 1,048.2 11.4 2.2 107.3

-Sarcosinates/Sarcosines 2,426.4 2,489.6 2,542.8 2,585.5 2,643.6 2,703.0 11.4 2.2 276.7

Humectants 1,528.5 1,568.3 1,601.8 1,628.8 1,665.3 1,702.8 11.4 2.2 174.3

-Glycerol 1,068.0 1,095.9 1,119.3 1,138.1 1,163.7 1,189.8 11.4 2.2 121.8

-Propylene Glycol 420.4 431.4 440.6 448.0 458.0 468.3 11.4 2.2 47.9

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers 989.0 1,014.7 1,036.4 1,053.8 1,077.5 1,101.7 11.4 2.2 112.8 -Ethoxylated Fatty Acids 813.8 835.0 852.8 867.2 886.6 906.6 11.4 2.2 92.8

-Polyglycerol Esters 130.1 133.5 136.4 138.7 141.8 145.0 11.4 2.2 14.8

Liquid Soap - Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants


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Bath & Shower - Chemical Breakdown (cont)


Bath Additive ingredients are projected to fall at a CAGR of (-4.7%). There are 2 primary functional areaswe can benefit in due to the size of business.

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants at 1,766.8 tonnes, made up of: Alkyl Ether Sulphates at 921.8, Alkene Sulphonates at 313.1, Alkyl Amido Alkyl Betaines at 227.3,

and Alkyl Polyglucosides at 169.6 tonnes.

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers at 1,026.6 with 934.3 tonnes of Fatty Esters making up the bulk ofsales.


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Recommendation:


Determine the $ value of key segment ingredients as an aggregate of all BPCcategories using todays Pricing.

Include ingredients we currently sell and selected ones we dont sell, butpossibly could, based on potential sales volume and chemistry capabilities .

Determine how much of the pie we can take, how we will do it, and what itsworth.


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BPC Sub-Category Power Rank Top 20


The 6 categories evaluated are made up of 45 sub-categories. Skin Care has the most top 20 sub-cats at 7; followed by Hair Care at 6, and Mens Grooming at 5.

Categories Sub-Categories 2016 % Growth2011 - '16

Rank2016

Size

Rank'11-'16

Growth

Rank P-Rank

Bath and Shower Body Wash/Shower Gel 3,051.9 38.4% 2 1 3 1

Skin Care Anti-Agers 3,797.8 31.5% 1 3 4 2

Hair Care Salon Hair Care 2,556.7 23.6% 3 7 10 3

Hair Care Colourants 1,997.3 21.9% 6 9 15 4

Sun Care Sun Protection 1,690.3 21.2% 9 10 19 5

Men's Grooming Men's Bath and Shower 857.7 33.8% 18 2 20 6

Skin Care Liquid/Cream/Gel/Bar Cleansers 1,548.2 16.7% 12 12 24 7Skin Care Facial Moisturisers 1,950.1 14.3% 7 17 24 7

Skin Care General Purpose Body Care 2,201.9 12.5% 5 21 26 8

Skin Care Lip Care 705.4 22.9% 20 8 28 9

Skin Care Facial Cleansers 1,689.3 13.6% 10 19 29 10

Hair Care Conditioners 1,826.3 11.8% 8 22 30 11

Hair Care Shampoos 2,315.0 9.7% 4 26 30 11

Baby and Child-specific Products Baby and Child-specific Sun Care 266.0 29.8% 27 4 31 12

Baby and Child-specific Products Baby Wipes 1,177.0 15.2% 16 16 32 13

Sun Care Self-Tanning 211.7 27.0% 30 5 35 14

Men's Grooming Men's Deodorants 1,399.8 11.3% 14 23 37 15

Men's Grooming Men's Hair Care 795.3 13.2% 19 20 39 16

Hair Care Hair Loss Treatments 148.3 24.2% 34 6 40 17

Baby and Child-specific Products Baby and Child-specific Bath 483.6 13.7% 22 18 40 17

Baby and Child-specific Products Nappy (Diaper) Rash Treatments 248.8 16.2% 28 13 41 18

Hair Care Styling Agents 1,661.9 5.2% 11 30 41 18

Men's Grooming Men's Skin Care 237.2 15.2% 29 15 44 19

Skin Care Acne Treatments 1,265.0 6.9% 15 29 44 19

Men's Grooming Men's Pre-Shave 375.3 7.7% 23 27 50 20

Bath and Shower Bar Soap 1,435.6 -1.1% 13 37 50 20


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BPC Ingredient Power Rank Data Source = Euromonitor Intl.

Evaluated 11 ingredient functional groups used in top 20 BPC sub-categories with potential to, oralready utilize, existing xxx infrastructure/capabilities.

Functional groups made up of 89 ingredients.

All others require CAPEX, M&A, or are commoditized or regulated not to sell.

Of 89 ingredients, 31 were determined to be feasible Fits.

Ingredients were ranked by combination of Fit and potential 2016 dollar sales.

Ingredients ranked from 14, with 1 equaling no restrictions or infrastructure/capability issues to 4equaling some type of forward integration or substantial CAPEX to produce. (5s = wont sell andare not charted))

$ sales are calculated by multiplying 2016 tonnage by 2204.62 lbs by current published low targetprice.

The power rank then uses a weighted methodology to evaluate 2016 sales potential.

- Given equal $ sales amounts, an ingredient thats a 3 fit should rank far below an ingredientthats a 1 fit.

- 2016 potential sales for 1 fits require no adjustment. All other sales adjusted by the percentage

of the fit # divided into the sum of the ranks (1+2+3+4+5 = 15). 2016 sales for 2 fits are reducedby 13%, 3s = 20%, and 4s = 27%. 2016 sales of $1,000 with a 3 fit would be adjusted to $800.


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BPC Ingredient Power Rank Results

If xxx achieved a 10% share of 2016 sales (un-weighted), the total incremental sales for thatyear would be estimated at US$xx.0MM.

The only 4 fit, Silicones (Conditioning Agents), could add another US$14.0MM to salesputting xxx at an optimistic US$xx.0MM in 2016 incremental sales; far short of our organic

growth target.


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BPC Ingredient Power Rank

Chemical Class Products by IngredientTons

2016

Growth

%

2011-16

CAGR

'11 -'16

2011-16

Absolute

Fit

1-5

Price/lb

Rank

2016

Size

Rank

'11-'16

Growth

Rank P-Rank

Potential

Value @

10%

Weighted

$ Value to

Fit Rank

Rank P-Rank

Emollients -Emollient Esters 3,809.0 107.3 19.9 227.3 1 $3.00 11 3 14 4 $2,519,219 2 3 1

Surfactant Cleansers & Adjuvants -Alkyl Isethionates 4,410.2 53.3 9.9 442.6 1 $2.00 9 29 38 12 $1,944, 563 3 4 2

Conditioning Agents-Skin/Hair/Fabric -Silicones (Conditioning Agents) 7,735.0 3.5 0.5 144.2 4 $8.00 5 79 84 34 $13,642,189 1 5 3

Conditioning Agents-Skin/Hair/Fabric -Monoalkyl Quats 2,514.7 27.1 5.0 72.9 1 $3.15 15 51 66 26 $1,746, 347 4 5 3

Thickeners/Structurants -Cross-linked Synthetic Polymers 383.5 92.8 17.1 19.8 1 $20.00 37 5 42 14 $1,690, 944 5 6 4

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Alkoxylated Fatty Esters 2,479.7 34.0 6.4 (18.0) 1 $3.00 16 47 63 24 $1,640, 039 6 7 5

Surfactant Cleansers & Adjuvants -Alkanolamides 3,533.1 32.9 6.2 74.3 2 $2.00 12 48 60 22 $1,557, 829 7 9 6

Synthetic Polymers -Copolymers 633.0 38.2 7.2 89.0 1 $9.42 30 40 70 28 $1,314, 584 8 9 6

Surfactant Cleansers & Adjuvants -Alkoxylated Fatty Alcohols 3,292.6 35.7 6.7 27.0 1 $1.50 13 44 57 21 $1,088, 840 9 10 7

Surfactant Cleansers & Adjuvants -Sarcosinates/Sarcosines 2,921.4 74.2 13.8 388.4 1 $1.5014 19

33 9 $966,087 10 11 8Preservatives/Antioxidants -Benzoic Acid/Benzoate 916.3 75.4 14.2 26.7 2 $4.50 24 17 41 13 $909,042 11 13 9

Surfactant Cleansers & Adjuvants -Amphodiacetates 2,375.9 69.0 12.9 287.4 2 $1.50 17 20 37 11 $785,693 12 14 10

Conditioning Agents-Skin/Hair/Fabric -Alkylamidopropylamines 1,004.4 0.0 0.0 9.8 1 $3.00 23 83 106 44 $664,296 13 14 10

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Sorbitan Esters of Fatty Acids 862.3 43.1 8.1 63.6 2 $3.87 25 35 60 22 $735,704 14 16 11

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Polyglycerol Esters 778.2 37.6 7.1 68.6 2 $4.00 27 43 70 28 $686,254 15 17 12

Synthetic Polymers -Polyalkylene Glycols 732.7 61.0 11.6 56.4 1 $3.00 28 25 53 18 $484,598 16 17 12

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Ethoxylated Fatty Acids 1,363.1 84.0 15.5 196.5 1 $1.50 21 11 32 8 $450,768 17 18 13

Humectants -Other Humectants 616.7 76.2 14.3 82.7 1 $3.17 31 16 47 15 $430,990 18 19 14

Emollients -Other Emollients 262.1 45.2 8.5 18.9 3 $8.00 44 33 77 33 $462,265 19 22 15

Preservatives/Antioxidants -Parabens 573.1 123.0 22.9 32.2 2 $3.00 33 2 35 10 $379,040 20 22 15

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Fatty Esters 359.7 84.3 15.5 32.3 2 $3.0039 10

49 16 $237,901 21 23 16Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Ethoxylated Glyceryl Esters 302.0 83.4 15.5 20.0 1 $3.00 42 13 55 19 $199,739 22 23 16

Antifungals -Piroctone Olamine 14.8 (1.0) (0.2) (0.2) 1 $50.00 71 86 157 66 $163,142 23 24 17

Preservatives/Antioxidants -Phenoxyethanol 250.5 97.3 17.7 12.5 1 $2.00 45 4 49 16 $110,451 25 26 18

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Other Emulsifiers 138.9 59.0 10.4 23.8 3 $5.00 50 26 76 32 $153,111 24 27 19

Preservatives/Antioxidants -Isothiazolinones 141.7 83.7 15.5 19.7 2 $4.00 49 12 61 23 $124,958 26 28 20

Preservatives/Antioxidants -Hydantoin 367.4 74.9 13.8 17.7 2 $1.00 38 18 56 20 $80,998 27 29 21

Synthetic Polymers -Polycarboxylate Esters 55.3 43.5 7.9 2.5 1 $4.00 58 34 92 39 $48,766 28 29 21

Skin Benefit Agents -Other Skin Benefit Agents 23.9 37.9 7.1 3.6 1 $3.86 66 41 107 45 $20,339 29 30 22

Surfactant Cleansers & Adjuvants -Taurates 9.0 7.8 1.6 0.4 1 $2.96 76 71 147 62 $5,873 30 31 23

Surfactant Cleansers & Adjuvants -EO - PO Block Copolymers 13.6 7.8 1.6 0.6 1 $1.50 72 70 142 58 $4,497 31 32 24

$35,249,063Potential 2016 Incremental Sales:

f d l d l


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BPC Ingredient & Product Claim Analysis

Matching Mintel classification of categories to Euromonitor, we focus on Skincare, Soap &Bath Products, and Hair Products.

Mintel further breaks down the categories to the sub-category level.

There is a strong correlation between the most prominent claims and two of the previouslyidentified mega trends; Health and Wellness and Green and Natural. Cost Effectiveness is a

matter of subjective opinion based on product cost and the level of claim performance.(Consumers will pay a premium for products that work.) POS data would measure costeffectiveness in our case.

Beauty Enhancement claims make up the majority of top 20 claims led byMoisturizers/Hydrators, Functional claims such as Cleansing, and Natural claims suchBotanical/Herbal are the next most prevalent claims.

Source: Mintel

C fid i l BPC I di A l i26


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BPC Ingredient & Product Claim Analysis

Source: Mintel

Category Sub-Category Claims Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q1 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q3 - 2012 Total Sample

Skincare Body Care Moisten-Hydrate 17 27 35 24 26 29 39 19 216

Skincare Face/Neck Care Cleansing 5 11 9 2 2 22 14 4 69

Soap & Bath Products Shower Products Moisten-Hydrate 11 2 10 4 2 21 9 2 61

Soap & Bath Products Shower Products Botanical/Herbal 12 6 4 4 3 7 10 10 56

Skincare Face/Neck Care Moisten-Hydrate 5 6 5 3 4 9 15 6 53

Soap & Bath Products Shower Products Male 3 6 2 11 5 3 6 7 43

Skincare Face/Neck Care Anti-Ageing 4 2 2 2 4 6 17 2 39

Skincare Body Care Brighten-Illuminate 1 4 4 7 3 3 6 7 35Soap & Bath Products Shower Products Female 0 6 6 1 3 3 9 0 28

Skincare Body Care Botanical/Herbal 1 1 3 3 2 4 8 1 23

Skincare Sun - Sun/Sunbed UV Protection 0 0 6 5 0 1 6 3 21

Hair Products Shampoo Botanical/Herbal 1 0 2 6 3 4 2 2 20

Hair Products Shampoo Moisten-Hydrate 4 0 2 3 3 5 1 2 20

Hair Products Conditioner Moisten-Hydrate 2 1 1 4 3 4 1 2 18

Skincare Lip Care Moisten-Hydrate 3 0 2 0 0 3 1 9 18

Soap & Bath Products Shower Products Ethical-Animal 6 1 2 1 1 5 2 0 18

Hair Products Conditioner Damaged Hair 4 3 1 3 4 1 0 1 17

Skincare Face/Neck Care Toning 1 1 4 1 0 3 4 1 15

Skincare Face/Neck Care Exfoliating 0 2 2 1 2 3 1 3 14Skincare Face/Neck Care Firming 3 0 0 0 2 3 4 2 14

Hair Products Shampoo Brighten-Illuminate 3 4 0 1 1 2 1 2 14

Hair Products Shampoo Damaged Hair 3 1 1 4 1 1 1 2 14

2 Years end Q3-2012Mintel Claims by Sub-Category - Top 20 Variants Launched


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Patrick Harlow31.08.2012

Patrick Pat Harlow Philadelphia

USA

BACKUP INFO


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Confidential xxx- BPC Ingredient Analysis30


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BPC Ingredient Power Rank (Top 45 5 fits)



2016

Growth

%

2011-16

CAGR

'11 -'16

2011-16

Absolute

Fit

1-5Price/lb

Rank

2016

Size

Rank

'11-'16

Growth

Rank P-Rank

Humectants -Glycerol 7,175.8 160.7 29.6 399.5 5 6 1 7 1Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants -Alkyl Amido Alkyl Betaines 11,135.5 92.0 16.6 1,091.7 5 2 6 8 2

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants -Alkyl Ether Sulphates 56,371.0 87.4 15.7 3,176.6 5 1 9 10 3

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants -Alkyl Polyglucosides 6,617.5 91.7 17.1 896.3 5 8 8 16 5

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Fatty Alcohols 10,495.7 83.4 15.7 289.6 5 3 14 17 6

Emollients -Paraffins (Emollients) 7,037.7 66.3 12.6 332.9 5 7 23 30 7

Humectants -Propylene Glycol 1,492.7 81.4 14.9 60.9 5 20 15 35 10

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants -Alkyl Sulphates 8,452.6 42.7 7.9 138.0 5 4 37 41 13

Emollients -Plant Oils 530.0 91.8 17.5 39.3 5 35 7 42 14

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Mono- and Diglycerides of Fatty 838.1 68.1 12.9 31.1 5 26 21 47 15Humectants -Butylene Glycol 1,658.4 50.5 9.6 79.2 5 19 31 50 17

Emollients -Cyclomethicone 644.1 43.1 8.1 26.6 5 29 36 65 25

Emollients -Hydrocarbon Waxes 2,288.0 28.3 5.4 102.3 5 18 50 68 27

Emollients -Petrolatum 1,316.4 28.5 5.4 100.1 5 22 49 71 29

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants -Alkene Sulphonates 3,879.0 16.6 3.1 550.9 5 10 64 74 30

Preservatives/Antioxidants -Benzophenone 136.4 63.1 11.6 22.6 5 51 24 75 31

Preservatives/Antioxidants -Butylated Hydroxyltoluene (BHT) 127.9 67.1 12.7 1.8 5 54 22 76 32

Emollients -Dimethicones (Emollients) 590.2 23.0 3.9 82.8 5 32 53 85 35

Synthetic Polymers -Vinylpyrollidones/Acetates 50.0 54.6 10.3 7.5 5 59 27 86 36Preservatives/Antioxidants -Other Preservatives/Antioxidants 73.7 51.3 9.8 9.6 5 56 30 86 36

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants -Phosphate Esters (Surfactants) 44.5 54.3 9.8 7.8 5 60 28 88 37

Skin Benefit Agents -Collagen 277.1 34.3 6.5 7.2 5 43 45 88 37

Thickeners/Structurants -Hectorites 132.8 42.5 8.0 8.2 5 53 38 91 38

Humectants -Sorbitol (Humectant) 345.5 26.1 4.9 35.8 5 40 52 92 39

Antimicrobials -Salicylic Acid and Its Salts 41.5 46.3 8.8 4.0 5 61 32 93 40

Conditioning Agents (Skin, Hair, Fabric) -Dialkyl Quats 113.7 34.3 6.5 4.1 5 55 46 101 41

Antifungals -Pyrithiones 399.7 15.7 3.0 5.6 5 36 66 102 42

Emollients -Lanolin and Derivatives 171.1 21.2 4.0 11.3 5 48 55 103 43

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Lecithin 21.0 42.5 8.0 1.5 5 68 39 107 45

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BPC Ingredient Power Rank (Remaining 5 fits)

Confidential, xxx BPC Ingredient Analysis31


2016

Growth

%

2011-16

CAGR

'11 -'16

2011-16

Absolute

Fit

1-5Price/lb

Rank

2016

Size

Rank

'11-'16

Growth

Rank P-Rank

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants -Linear Alkylbenzene Sulphonate 338.3 15.7 3.0 4.0 5 41 67 108 46Conditioning Agents (Skin, Hair, Fabric) -Other Conditioning Agents (Skin, 193.9 16.6 3.1 27.5 5 46 65 111 47

Synthetic Polymers -Other Synthetic Polymers 186.7 12.7 2.2 1.8 5 47 68 115 48

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Ethoxylated Sorbitan Esters 63.8 18.2 3.1 0.4 5 57 61 118 49

Skin Benefit Agents -Hydroxy Acids 24.3 22.2 4.2 2.0 5 65 54 119 50

Conditioning Agents (Skin, Hair, Fabric)-Dimethicones (Conditioning agent 560.2 (1.0) (0.2) (5.9) 5 34 85 119 50

Emollients -Synthetic Emollient Hydrocarbons 22.7 20.9 3.9 3.9 5 67 56 123 51

Thickeners/Structurants -Silica (Thickeners) 4.3 37.9 7.1 0.8 5 83 42 125 52

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Citric Acid Esters of Monoglycerid 16.2 20.9 3.9 2.8 5 70 57 127 53

Thickeners/Structurants -Bentonites 133.9 4.6 0.9 5.8 5 52 75 127 53Humectants -Xylitol (Humectant) 9.7 20.9 3.9 1.7 5 74 58 132 54

Synthetic Polymers -Polycarboxylates 9.7 20.9 3.9 1.7 5 75 59 134 55

Antimicrobials -Triclosan 27.5 6.8 1.4 0.0 5 63 73 136 56

Synthetic Polymers -Acrylamides 7.5 17.0 3.2 1.1 5 78 62 140 57

Surfactant Cleansers and Adjuvants -Alkane Sulphonates 24.5 1.0 0.2 0.2 5 64 80 144 59

Preservatives/Antioxidants -Potassium Sorbate 16.5 4.6 0.9 0.7 5 69 76 145 60

Antimicrobials -Chlorinated Phenols 1.9 20.9 3.9 0.3 5 86 60 146 61

Emollients -Emollient Ethers 4.1 17.0 3.2 0.6 5 84 63 147 62

Preservatives/Antioxidants -Sulphites/Metabisulphites 28.9 (7.2) (1.5) (2.3) 5 62 87 149 63Preservatives/Antioxidants -Bronopol 4.4 12.4 2.5 0.1 5 82 69 151 64

Humectants -Urea 8.1 5.2 1.0 0.3 5 77 74 151 64

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Sucrose Esters of Fatty Acids 10.7 0.6 0.1 0.1 5 73 81 154 65

Antifungals -Tea Tree Oil 6.6 4.6 0.9 0.3 5 80 77 157 66

Antimicrobials -Other Antimicrobials 1.0 7.8 1.6 0.0 5 87 72 159 67

Skin Benefit Agents -Pyrollidone Carboxylic Acid (PCA) 6.6 4.6 0.9 0.3 5 81 78 159 67

Conditioning Agents (Skin, Hair, Fabric) -PCA Dimethicone 7.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 5 79 82 161 68

Antimicrobials -Quaternary Salts (Antimicrobials) 0.2 (0.5) (0.1) 0.0 5 89 84 173 69

Emulsifiers and Co-Emulsifiers -Ethoxylated Fatty Amides 3.7 (7.2) (1.5) (0.3) 5 85 88 173 69Thickeners/Structurants -Other Thickeners/Structurants 0.4 (12.4) (2.6) (0.1) 5 88 89 177 70



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Confidential, xxx BPC Ingredient Analysis32

BPC NORAM Premium vs. Mass Product Comparison

Premium products are an aggregation of BPC products. The distinction between mass

market and premium is price, label/positioning, and distribution.

NORAM - Market Sizes | Historic/Forecast | Retail Value RSP | US$ mn | Current Prices | Year| on| Year Exchange Rates

Categories 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011-16 %2011-16

CAGR %

2011-16

Absolute

Premium Firming/Anti-Cellulite Body Care 43.6 42.6 42.6 39.5 40.5 41.0 40.7 40.5 40.5 40.8 41.2 0.4 0.1 0.2 Mass Firming/Anti-Cellulite Body Care 73.2 73.3 73.3 78.9 81.7 70.0 64.6 62.5 61.2 60.7 61.2 -12.6 -2.7 -8.8

General Purpose Body Care 2,193.5 2,274.7 2,267.9 2,204.0 2,208.6 2,264.0 2,335.2 2,408.7 2,475.7 2,534.3 2,587.3 14.3 2.7 323.3

Premium General Purpose Body Care 199.4 213.4 205.3 190.1 198.6 210.4 214.5 218.0 221.6 226.1 231.6 10.1 1.9 21.2

Mass General Purpose Body Care 1,994.1 2,061.3 2,062.6 2,013.8 2,010.0 2,053.6 2,120.7 2,190.7 2,254.1 2,308.2 2,355.7 14.7 2.8 302.1

Acne Treatments 1,146.0 1,153.6 1,158.6 1,180.8 1,203.4 1,214.3 1,232.8 1,243.0 1,247.9 1,265.8 1,291.4 6.3 1.2 77.1

Premium Acne Treatments 27.2 28.3 29.1 29.0 30.3 31.4 32.4 33.4 34.2 35.4 37.0 17.8 3.3 5.6

Mass Acne Treatments 1,118.8 1,125.3 1,129.5 1,151.8 1,173.1 1,182.9 1,200.3 1,209.7 1,213.7 1,230.4 1,254.4 6.0 1.2 71.5 Face Masks 75.9 79.4 76.4 72.7 73.3 74.7 75.9 76.4 76.7 77.4 79.0 5.7 1.1 4.3

Premium Face Masks 36.7 38.3 37.7 35.7 38.3 40.2 41.6 42.7 43.4 44.0 45.3 12.7 2.4 5.1 Mass Face Masks 39.2 41.1 38.7 37.0 35.0 34.6 34.4 33.7 33.3 33.4 33.7 -2.4 -0.5 -0.8

Liquid/Cream/Gel/Bar Cleansers 1,446.4 1,532.9 1,541.4 1,466.3 1,526.9 1,606.3 1,670.0 1,727.1 1,780.4 1,829.8 1,882.7 17.2 3.2 276.5

Premium Liquid/Cream/Gel/Bar Cleansers 492.8 514.1 500.6 482.2 507.3 530.9 547.5 563.3 574.6 587.8 606.6 14.3 2.7 75.7 Mas s Liquid/Cream/Gel/Ba r Cleanser s 953.6 1,018.8 1,040.8 984.2 1,019.6 1,075.4 1,122.5 1,163.9 1,205.9 1,242.0 1,276.2 18.7 3.5 200.8

Facial Cleansing Wipes 216.4 223.8 213.5 194.1 186.7 181.9 176.9 172.7 169.4 167.3 164.1 -9.8 -2.0 -17.8

Premium Facial Cleansing Wipes 6.7 7.4 7.5 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 Mass Facial Cleansing Wipes 209.7 216.4 206.0 187.2 179.8 175.1 170.0 165.8 162.5 160.4 157.2 -10.2 -2.1 -17.9

Facial Moisturisers 1,912.3 2,000.5 2,007.4 1,899.0 1,977.1 2,106.6 2,177.4 2,230.7 2,281.2 2,337.1 2,424.0 15.1 2.8 317.4

Premium Facial Moisturisers 961.8 1,028.9 1,026.4 992.2 1,054.3 1,136.7 1,192.1 1,239.8 1,285.0 1,336.7 1,396.8 22.9 4.2 260.1

Mass Facial Moisturisers 950.6 971.6 981.0 906.7 922.8 969.9 985.3 990.9 996.2 1,000.4 1,027.1 5.9 1.2 57.2

Lip Care 524.5 573.3 574.1 560.7 598.4 627.9 652.4 677.7 701.9 732.7 768.4 22.4 4.1 140.6

Premium Lip Care 13.6 13.6 13.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.5 2.9 2.1

Mass Lip Care 510.9 559.7 561.0 548.0 585.5 614.6 638.7 663.8 687.6 717.9 753.1 22.5 4.1 138.5

Anti-Agers 2,317.4 2,599.7 2,828.4 2,902.0 3,077.8 3,318.2 3,510.4 3 ,695.3 3 ,883.1 4 ,110.2 4 ,375.7 31.9 5.7 1,057.5

Premium Anti-Agers 1,042.3 1,146.2 1,182.7 1,168.8 1,345.6 1,552.5 1,685.6 1,795.4 1,907.9 2,040.7 2,195.1 41.4 7.2 642.6

Mass Anti-Agers 1,275.1 1,453.5 1,645.7 1,733.2 1,732.2 1,765.6 1,824.8 1,899.9 1,975.3 2,069.5 2,180.6 23.5 4.3 414.9

Toners 368.9 368.6 354.8 332.3 327.7 325.5 323.6 322.5 323.7 326.8 329.5 1.2 0.2 4.0 Premium Toners 219.8 224.8 224.4 215.9 214.6 214.8 214.7 215.0 216.5 219.2 222.0 3.3 0.7 7.1

Mass Toners 149.1 143.8 130.4 116.4 113.1 110.7 108.9 107.5 107.2 107.6 107.5 -2.8 -0.6 -3.1

Hand Care 146.1 158.7 157.2 146.1 151.9 155.3 157.6 158.8 161.0 164.4 168.4 8.5 1.6 13.2 Premium Hand Care 39.0 43.7 44.2 40.9 43.3 45.0 45.7 46.4 47.5 48.8 50.1 11.4 2.2 5.2

Mass Hand Care 107.1 115.1 113.0 105.2 108.7 110.3 111.9 112.4 113.5 115.6 118.3 7.3 1.4 8.0

Project X - BPC Ingredient Analysis

Documents

Transcript of Project X - BPC Ingredient Analysis