Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS)

PIRCS MissionTo provide a common framework for evaluating

strengths and weaknesses of regional climate models and their component procedures through

systematic, comparative simulations

PIRCS Co-Directors

http://www.pircs.iastate.edu/

Ray Arritt rwarritt@iastate.eduBill Gutowski gutowski@iastate.eduGene Takle gstakle@iastate.edu

Dynamical DownscalingDynamical Downscaling

Global climate model

Regional climate model

Process models (e.g., hydrology, ecosystem)

Social systems

U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan

“Objective 1.6: Accelerate the development of scientifically-based predictive models to provide regional and fine-scale climate and climate impacts information”

“…establish a process for coordination of regional modeling activities…”

“Regional and sectoral climate and climate impacts research and modeling is a high program priority”

http://www.pircs.iastate.edu/

National Research Council Review National Research Council Review of CCSP Strategic Planof CCSP Strategic Plan

“In implementation, the CCSP should support the development and application of regional climate models to a greater extent than described in the revised plan.” 

NRC: Implementing Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Final U. S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan (2004)

PIRCS Experiments1a: 15 May-15 July 1988 1b: 1 June - 31 July 19931c: July 1986 - Dec 1993 Subset: Oct 1978 - Dec 1988

GCM grid: red points RCM grid: green, blue points

Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)

Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)

Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)

NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong) NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong)

NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)

CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)

Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)

Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)

Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)

Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)

SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)

NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)

ETH (D. Luethi)ETH (D. Luethi)

Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)

Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)

Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)

St. Louis University (Z. Pan)St. Louis University (Z. Pan)

PIRCS Participating GroupsPIRCS Participating Groups

500 hPa Heights:500 hPa Heights: Root Mean Square Difference from ReanalysisRoot Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis

PIRCS Expt 1a (1988)PIRCS Expt 1a (1988)

500 hPa RMSD

0

20

40

60

80

100

136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196

Julian Day

RegCM2RAMSDARLAMHIRHAMScripps RSMNCEP RSMMM5-BATS

““Warming Hole”Warming Hole”

TTmaxmax (JJA) (JJA)˚C

Refereed Publications: PIRCS Science of Climate Change

Takle, E. S., W. J. Gutowski, R. A. Arritt, Z. Pan, C. J. Anderson, R. R. da Silva, D. Caya, S.-C. Chen, J. H. Christensen, S.-Y. Hong, H.-M. H. Juang, J. Katzfey, W. M. Lapenta, R. Laprise, P. Lopez, J. McGregor and J. O. Roads, 1999: Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS): Description and initial results.  J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19,443-19,461.

Christopher J. Anderson, Raymond W. Arritt, Eugene S. Takle, Zaitao Pan, William J. Gutowski, Jr., Renato da Silva, Daniel Caya, Jens H. Christiansen, Daniel Luthi, Miguel A. Gaertner, Clemente Gallardo, Filippo Giorgi, Song-You Hong, Colin Jones, H.-M. H. Juang, Jack J. Katzfey, William M. Lapenta, Rene Laprise, Jay W. Larson, Glen E. Liston, John L. McGregor, Roger A. Pielke, Sr., John O. Roads, John A. Taylor, 2003: Hydrologic processes in regional climate model simulations of the central United States flood of June-July 1993.  J. Hydrometeor., 4, 584-598.

10-yr Runs of Climate and Climate Change

• Longest published ensemble RCM runs for contiguous U.S.

• 5 publications on science of regional climate and climate change

• 6 publications on climate change impacts.

• Numerous conference & university presentations.

Broad, Community InterestBroad, Community Interest

• Consultation by other science programs: RMIP, ARCMIP, MERCURE/PRUDENCE, WGNE, CLIVAR, South America projects, Africa AIACC

• Consultation by private sector: e.g., Corn Growers Assoc., Basin Electric, Soil Conservation Service, IA Assoc. of Municipal Utilities

• Foundation for North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

Transferability Working GroupTransferability Working Group GEWEX Hydrometeorology PanelGEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel

World Climate Research ProgrammeWorld Climate Research Programme

Objective: Improved understanding and predictive capability through systematic intercomparisons of regional climate simulations on several continents with observations and analyses.

•Build on coordinated observations from GEWEX continental scale experiments.

•Provide a framework for evaluating regional model simulations of climate processes of different climatic regions.

•Evaluate transferability of regional climate models, for example a model developed to study one region as applied to other, “non-native”, regions.

•Examine individual and ensemble performance between domains and on individual domains.

A Vision for U.S. Regional A Vision for U.S. Regional Climate ModelingClimate Modeling

• There is well documented need for regional climate modeling beyond the CCSP plan to "Accelerate the development of..."

• This urgency is driven both by the need for better science and requirements for applications.

• The PIRCS and PRUDENCE experiences demonstrate the value of coordination in regional climate modeling

• No U.S. agency or organization is taking leadership to accelerate regional climate modeling.

A Vision for U. S. Regional A Vision for U. S. Regional Climate ModelingClimate Modeling

• PIRCS brings:– 10 years of experience– Commitment to lead a regional modeling effort – Motivation to coordinate with national climate

change priorities.• Development of a center is potentially slow and

cumbersome.• PIRCS can provide leadership within the timeframe of

the normal grants program.

Implementing the VisionImplementing the Vision

• Systematically examine fine-scale climate dynamics.

• Coordinate U.S. comparisons.• Provide foundation for:

– community member proposals – U.S. climate change assessments

• Advance goals of CCSP Strategic Plan. • Provide international linkages (e.g., GEWEX)

Implementing the Vision: Implementing the Vision: IssuesIssues

• Ensembles• Transferability• Uncertainty, Predictability & Error Propagation• Upscaling• Feedbacks• Nesting

– domain, resolution differences, input frequency, physics consistency

• Stability of long simulations• Calibration

Implementing the Vision: Implementing the Vision: OutcomesOutcomes

• Standardized framework for assessing RCMs

• Regional-scale feedbacks and couplings exposed

• Improved models

• Guidelines for improving observational databases for model assessment

• Capacity-building in RCM science and assessment

• Cross-comparison with other downscaling methods

Implementing the Vision:Implementing the Vision:NSF RoleNSF Role

Questions for NSF:• How much should impacts be included and

emphasized?• What NSF divisions should be linked to this

vision?• What is the potential for developing, with NSF

help, inter-agency cooperation toward meeting CCSP goals?

• How much does US commitment to GEWEX influences NSF's priorities?

PIRCS HomepagePIRCS Homepage

http://www.pircs.iastate.edu

Implementing the Vision:Implementing the Vision:PersonnelPersonnel

• ISU faculty - oversight & management

• 1 Postdoc - scientific coordination

• 3 Graduate students - focused analyses

• 3 Undergraduates - computing assistance

• 1 Research associate - data management and access

• External visitors

Implementing the Vision:Implementing the Vision:SupportSupport

• Workshops for participating modelers & output users

• Supporting hardware

• Data access tools (e.g., Live-Access Server)

• Travel & Publication support

Precipitation Bias

[mm/d]

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1980.00 1980.25 1980.50 1980.75 1981.00

Daily Precipitation San Juan - 1980

OBS

StatDS (1)

Year

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1980.00 1980.25 1980.50 1980.75 1981.00

Daily Precipitation San Juan - 1980

OBS

RegCM

Year

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

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250

300

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Runoff Bias - Animas

Bias(RegCM)

Bias(StatDS)

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987

Snowpack - Animas

SIMULATEDRegCMStatDS

Year

SIMULATED

X = 250 km

contours every 250 m

X = 50 km

contours every 250 m

X = 10 km

contours every 250 m

Reanalysis

HadCMCont/Scen

RegCM2

HIRHAM

Possible Possible Comparisons?Comparisons?

OBS

HadCMCont/Scen

Driving Differences

0 1 2

0 1 2

0 1 2

MotivationMotivation

10-6

10-4

10-2

100

0 2 4 6 8 10

Daily Precip. Intensity: Apr - Sep

OBS-1d

MOD-1d

[cm/d]

Model & SimulationModel & Simulation

5-km grid (121 x 165)

May - August 1997 (after spin-up)

20-km grid (120 x 150)

Grell & Pagowski

1994 - 1999

Results - PrecipitationResults - Precipitation

0

2

4

6

8

0 4 8 12 16 20 24

Precipitation Diurnal Cycle

EastWestWhole Domain

Time [Local ST]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

OBSERVED

LatentSensibleInc. SW

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

NCEP RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

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400

600

800

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

SCRIPPS RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

Hour

REGCM2

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

MM5-BATS

Hour

CLIMRAMS

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

ISU RAMS

Hour

HIRHAM DARLAM

Without sufficient resolution, it just doesn’t look right!

EST&LM