Project selection for sustainable

energy projects

Determining the most important factors

Background

• NEPAD to start sustainable energy projects in Africa

• Projects must be optimally selected as Africa cannot waste resources

• Over a hundred project selection methodologies exist for the selection of R&D projects

Project selection

Methodology and criteria

Selected projects

Input

Process

Output

Proposals

Purpose of PhD study

• Identify most important factors for selection of sustainable energy projects in Africa

• Choosing a project selection methodology is dependent on which factors are important for the projects

• The first part of the study will focus on identifying the factors

• After that a decision making model will be selected

Proposed methodology

Conduct literature surveyWhy is project selection important and required?

What project selection methodologies are used in R&D?What is a sustainable energy base?

Conduct focus group 1What are the most important factors in selecting projects for a

sustainable energy base in Africa?

Conduct focus group 2Will the consolidated factors meet the needs of selectingprojects to ensure a sustainable energy base for Africa?

Conduct survey to validatefactors

Conduct international DelphiWhat are the most important factors in selecting projects for

a sustainable energy base in Africa

Literature survey factors

• Quantitative factors:– Economic measures– Future savings in

capital– Operational and

maintenance costs– Profits– Improvement in

productivity

• Qualitative factors:– Political and senior

management support– Client and public

support– Environmental

impact– Technical and

educational relevance

– Interface to existing projects

– Impact on project portfolio

Possible decision making methodologies

• Comparative approaches – Pair-wise comparison– Analytical hierarchy process– Scoring models

• Strategic planning methods – Cognitive modelling (eg decision tree

diagramming)– Cluster analysis

• Systems approaches

First focus group

Item Description Duration Responsible

1 Purpose, rational and methodology of the study

30 minutes Marie-Louise Barry

2 Identification of most important factors for projects selection

1 hour All

3 Classification of factors 1 hour All

4 Preliminary ranking of factors 30 minutes All

5 Identification of Delphi study participants

30 minutes All

Delphi study

• Consult international experts to ensure that the most important factors have been identified

• Minimum of 15 experts required

Second round focus group

• Present factors identified by Delphi

• Discuss factors

• Update factors

Survey for validation

FactorsConduct focus

group 2

Develop, conduct and analysesurvey

Validatedfactors for project selection

Input

Process

Output

Proposed work plan

ID Task Name Duration Start Finish

1 Proposal 111 days? Mon 8/7/06 Tue 1/23/07

6 Literature survey 500 days Mon 7/3/06 Mon 6/16/08

7 Focus group 1 16 days Wed 1/10/07 Wed 1/31/07

11 Conduct international Dephi 50 days Thu 2/1/07 Wed 4/11/07

15 Focus group 2 14 days? Thu 4/12/07 Tue 5/1/07

20 Survey 170 days Wed 5/2/07 Tue 12/25/07

24 Finalise dissertation 130 days Wed 12/26/07 Tue 6/24/08

30 Conference and journal papers 270 days Wed 1/10/07 Tue 1/22/08

J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M JHalf 2, 2006 Half 1, 2007 Half 2, 2007 Half 1, 2008

Discussion

Sustainable energy literature factors

• African ownership and responsibility

• Regional infrastructure• Regional institutional

capacity• Regional policies and

regulatory frameworks• Capacity building• Partnerships• Size of capital

investment• Skill development • Skills transfer

• Training of locals• Investment by other

parties• Customer base• Global sustainability• Transfer of science and

technology• Economic participation• Development of Africa• Eradicating poverty• Promoting the role of

women in all activities• Impact of the project• Achievability of projects

Delphi study

• Summary of participants