Project RLA/013/10

Framework for adaptation policies to current and future

drought in the Dominican Republic and in Cuba

NOVIEMBRE 2006NOVIEMBRE 2006

ObjectivesObjectives

To strengthen and facilitate adaptaton to drought by socio-economic sectors impacted by climate change and variablity

To propose and implement adaptation policies in local and regional territorial planning, with emphasis on the population and productive activities

Human interventionHuman intervention

• Deforestation• Inappropriate tecnology • Improper use or contamination of water

sources• Improper use of soils

1. Can increase drought severity

2. Can reduce its impact

• Rational use of natural resources

• Adaptation measures

Why Las Tunas ?

Dry Sub-humid

Annual precipitation <800mm <1000mmmMonths of drought 9-11 8-10evaporation 2000/2400mm >2400mmprec/evap. >60 >40

dry

Sub- humid

Affects: 14 % of the country, 1056 settlements (94% of them rural) and more than 1 million inhabitants

Source Ministry of Agriculture, 1995

Distribution of dry zones

MANATÍ

PUERTO PADRE

J. MENÉNDEZ

Case study: CUBALAS TUNAS PROVINCE

MUNICIPALITIES

• 3 municipalities

• Total surface 2 771 km2

• Total population of 180 000 inhabitants

• Population density of 68 pp/km2

• 69 settlements > 500 inhabitants

Area studiedArea studied

SURVEY

PROSPECTUS

ASSESSMENT

FRAMEWORK FOR ADAPTATION POLICIESFRAMEWORK FOR ADAPTATION POLICIES

SCENARIOS

Stages of the research

CHAPTER I

CHAPTER II

CHAPTER III

CHAPTER IV

Proposed adaptation measures for the current situation

Proposed adaptation measures per future scenario

1

2

3

4

5

6

Introduction

Objectives, scope, content, methodology

Synthesis of the assessment

Survey design

7

Results of the survey of farmers

8

Results of survey of the population

Survey results for key informants

9

10

Vulnerability of the agricultural sector

Vulnerability of the population

11

V = I - AV = I - A

Socio-economic assessment of the province and the municipalities

(Schema y master plans)

Agro-productivity of the soilsAgro-productivity of the soils

Water resources

Situation: some dry reservoirs, others with low water accumulation

Historical precipitation average diminishes from 1126 mm to 998 mm

SYNTHESIS OF THE PROBLEMATIC

Proposal for transformation

Low agricultural productivity, salinity

Territorial Planning Territorial Planning Studies, DPPF Las Tunas Studies, DPPF Las Tunas (Adaptation)(Adaptation)

forestry

pastures

idle land

sugarcane

Mixed crops

Soil usage

tourism

Protected area

Underground water

Bad drainage

Forestry

Average agricultural productivity

Move from sugarcane to pastures

Natural potential

IMPACTSIMPACTSADAPTATION ADAPTATION MEASURESMEASURES

CURRENT CURRENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY

Conceptual modelConceptual model

HypothesisHypothesis

The population’s response capacity depends on:

• education level• extent of information that the population has on drought

Drought influences social vulnerability social in regard to:• housing conditions and typology

• hygiene and sanitary conditions • overcrowding in housing • vectors• illnesses augmented by drought

Migration of the population to other territories is a reflection of:

• soil degradation• water scarcity• lack of employment

Selection of indicatorsSelection of indicatorsSelection of indicatorsSelection of indicators

Method of analysis: SurveyMethod of analysis: Survey

Areas studiedAreas studied Areas studiedAreas studied

primary surveyprimary surveyprimary surveyprimary survey

(direct information from an informant - written or verbal)(direct information from an informant - written or verbal)

QQualitative procedure, sample determined by expert judgement, based on soil usage and population distribution

Proposal: Total to survey = 34 settlements, covering 49% of the area, 2.3% of the population and 929 people interviewed

Actual: 57 settlements and 940 people interviewed

Selected locations

Types of surveys:

Individual interviewIndividual interviewIndividual interviewIndividual interview

• concentrated housing• dispersed housing• farmer• key informant

Group interviewGroup interviewGroup interviewGroup interview• farmers

Open interviewOpen interviewOpen interviewOpen interview• socio-economic sectors and scientific institutions (agriculture, environment, sanitation, health care)

Variables• Personal and community safety Personal and community safety • Food security, health and Food security, health and

economic problemseconomic problems• Environmental safety and Environmental safety and

public policiespublic policies

• Personal and community safety Personal and community safety • Food security, health and Food security, health and

economic problemseconomic problems• Environmental safety and Environmental safety and

public policiespublic policies

• Training workshop for actors and interviewers

• Workshop after survey data collected but before it was processed

• Objectives were to gather views on the territory visited, perceptions of the drought impacts, solutions implemented to date and assistance provided by local governments and the population itself

TALLERES

Workshops with the interviewers (very positive)

Survey resultsSurvey results

Main Problems

Farmers Population Key informants

Lack of rain (drought) Transportation Water distribution for people, cattle and agriculture

Low crop yields Drought Housing (roofing and walls)

Cattle and self-sufficiency affected

Recreation Transportation and repair of roads

Forestry and bee farming affected

Food Waste water treatment

Housing

Vulnerability to drought

Vulnerability of the agricultural sector by Vulnerability of the agricultural sector by People’s Councils (districts)People’s Councils (districts)

Vulnerability of the livestock farming sector by People’s Councils (districts)

Vulnerability of the forestry sector by People’s Councils

Final vulnerability index

Productive sector

Drought adaptation policies

Adaptation policies

Scenarios

Current vulnerability

(Impact - Adaptation)

Survey assessment and results

ScenariosScenarios

• Hypothetical scenarios allow for anticipatory actions to be undertaken in the present, to reduce future vulnerability to drought on the local level.

• Selection of 25 key variables

Impact, vulnerability and adaptation matrix established:

• Giving an order of priority to measures and actions identified

• Existing facilities for their implementation

:.

ADAPTATION POLICIES

Thematic area

Policies

Soils Restablishment of the fertility indexes.

Crops Improving the territorial planning program and soil use management.Achieving efficient irrigation methods.Development of urban agriculture and family gardens.

Livestock Development of sustainable family livestock farming.

Improvment of the contingency plan for drought in the livestock sector.

Forestry Reforestation of the territory and rational use of existing forest areas.

Water Rational use of water resources.

ADAPTATION POLICIES

Settlements and population

Raise awareness of and capacity for drought adaptation,

Minimize the impact on forests due to consumption of charcoal and wood-burning,

Guarantee adequate levels of food security on a permanent basis,

Improve the population’s quality of life,

Organizational aspects

Improve intervention mehcanisms and participation in dealing with drought.

Training Expand training on drought management.

Housing Meet the needs for appropriate housing and water services.

Infrastructure Access and comunication for the entire population to regional

centres, to seek employment and services.

DROUGHT ADAPTATION Measures proposed

WATER (26)SOILS (13)AGRICULTURE (26)LIVESTOCK (15)FORESTRY (15)BEE FARMING (6)POPULATION (16)HOUSING AND SETTLEMENTS (25)

Total 142

Priority I - 95

Priority II - 25

Priority III - 22

Lessons learned (positive)

• Inter-disciplinary team with members from various institutions

• Dynamic testing conducted to validate the surveys

• The need for territorial baseline data

• Support from institutions and government at all stages of the project facilitated the training of actors and the implementation of results

• Training workshops held with various actors at different moments of the research project

• The alliance and joint work carried out between scientists from two fields (meterology and planning) enhanced the quality of the results obtained

• Selection of the area to be studied based on expert judgement and the appplication of the survey in the middle of a severe drought

• The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatial representation of the vulnerability and its components

• The use of scenario techniques (climatic, economic and social variables), the identification of existign strengths and barriers in order to arrive at a proposal for adaptation measures

• The research results allowed for the elaboration of specific project outlines for achieving adaptation in different time periods and affected territories

• Potential for application of this experience in other countries in the region with similar characteristics

• Incorporation of the results into the territorial planning