Project Overview and Scenario Process Prof. Malcolm Eames 6 October 2011.
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Transcript of Project Overview and Scenario Process Prof. Malcolm Eames 6 October 2011.
Project Overview and Scenario Process
Prof. Malcolm Eames6 October 2011
Project Aims
• To develop the knowledge and capability to overcome the separation between the "what" and "how" of urban scale retrofitting in order promote a managed socio-technical transition in built environment and urban infrastructure.
Vision
• To deliver a 'step change' in current knowledge and capacity to underpin the transition to urban sustainability, by working with key stakeholders to illuminate challenging but realistic social & technological options and pathways for systemic retrofitting of two core UK city regions (Greater Manchester and Cardiff/SE Wales) by 2050
Step ChangeFrom… • Incremental & near
market technologies• Niche experiments • Piecemeal &
fragmented programmes
• Limited capacity for learning
To… • Prospective tech. and
disruptive innovation• Systems change• Integration across
scales • Top down & bottom up
learning
Objectives• Explore and advance both theoretical and practical understandings of processes
of systems innovation and transition in an urban context.
• Analyse through case studies, modelling and international comparison, the technical and social processes underpinning such transitions.
• Identify and characterise prospective disruptive technologies and systems innovations which will underpin a transition to sustainability in the built environment (over the period 2020-2030)
• Articulate and appraise regionally specific visions and prospective pathways for urban scale retrofitting of the built environment.
• To develop and test an integrated socio-technical support system that practically assists … improving effectiveness and efficiency of retrofitting processes.
What we intend to deliver • Improved societal understanding of long-term transitions
(energy, water & waste) for sustainable urban retrofitting
• Mobilise expectations around clearly articulated, pathways & scenarios for prospective disruptive technologies and systems innovations
• Integrated urban scale modelling and evaluation tools to support improved decision-making and implementation
• Practical knowledge exchange framework which cities can apply to drive forward systemic retrofitting
Work Package 1
Urban Transitions Analysis
Work Package 2
Urban ForesightLaboratory(2020-2050)
Work Package 3
Urban Options, Visualisation
and Pathways Analysis
Work Package 4
Synthesis, Comparison
& Knowledge Exchange
Urban Foresight Panel
ScenarioWorkshops
Produces set of
contextual ‘socio-technical’
scenarios for testing in WP3
Project Structure
Urban Retrofit Scenarios
An Outline Framework for Scenario Foresight and Appraisal
Foresight & Scenario Approaches
Descriptive
Forecasts use formal quantitative extrapolation and modelling to predict ‘likely’ futures from current trends.
Exploratory Scenarios explore possible futures. They emphasise drivers, and do not specify a predetermined desirable end state towards which storylines must progress.
Technical Scenarios explore possible future technological systems. They emphasise the technical feasibility and implications of different options, rather than exploring how different futures might unfold.
Normative
Visions are elaborations – usually narrative accounts - of a desirable/sustainable future. They describe a (more or less) plausible end state rather than the pathways through which that future might be achieved.
Backcasting studies start by defining a desirable and plausible future end point (or vision). They then investigate possible pathways to reach that point.
Socio-technical transition scenarios emphasis a multi level co-evolutionary understanding of the social and technological dimensions of the large scale systems changes.
Roadmaps provide a schematic description (time line) of a sequence of specific measures or targets designed to bring about a particular future.
Methodology
We will adopt a participatory backcasting approach in order to develop a realistic,
internally coherent and transparent set of socio-technical transition scenarios for
systemic urban retrofitting.
The Retrofit 2050 Scenarios Process
Step Focus Participants
Phase 1 October 2011 –
September 2012
1. Problem Framing & Structuring
Practices, drivers and expectations
Urban Foresight Panel of national experts
2. Visioning Radical & disruptive innovation across
scales and domains(Indicator development)
3. Pathway Analysis Transition dynamics(Indicator development)
Phase 2 October 2012 –
June 2013
4. Regional Implementation
Grounding and visualisation(Modelling)
Key regional stakeholders
Phase 3: June 2013 – September
2013
5. Evaluation & Appraisal
Sustainability and resilience under multiple
perspectives(Multi Criteria Analysis)
Wider sample of regional stakeholders &
societal interests
Urban Foresight Panel
Your role in the process:• Broaden the range of disciplinary, professional
& organisational knowledge• Contribute a high degree of creativity, critical
thinking and challenge• Help to ensure the relevance, usefulness and
usability of the outputs
Defining ‘Sustainable Urban Retrofit’
“…the directed alteration of the fabric, form or systems which comprise the built
environment in order to improve energy, water and waste efficiencies.”
Urbanisation is a complex socio-technical process
Retrofit
Impacts ofprices of fuelsEffects of
InfluenceFactors (IF)
Impacts ofpeerpressure
Impacts ofincentives
Impacts ofperceivedbenefits
neighbourhoodretrofit rates
Lowcarbon
buildings
NaturalmaterialsproductsProcessing
distributionNaturalmaterialsproducesgrow of natural
materials
SkilledAgriculture andOther Labour
unemploymentrate
hiring in AO
SkilledConstruction
Labour
hiring inconstructions
transition tolabour force
quitting fromconstruction
quitting fromA&O
Labour forcepool
total retiringUnemployed
Labour
reemployed
Populationpopulation change
sewagegeneration
Sewagesewage disposal
(SD)
demand for newSDC
Solid WasteCollectionCapacitySWCC
solid wastegeneratio SWG
fresh waterconsumptions
Sewage DisposalCapacity SDC
delay of SDCacquisition
AccumulatedLandfillIntake
SDCacquisition
SWCC lossSWCCacquisition
average life ofSWCC
landfill
Recycle and disposeto other regions
solid wastecollection
Available LandfillCapacity
Usage alternativetransports modes
(ATM)transfer rate to
ATM
Total energydemand
energy need forbuildings
energy need fortransportation
energy need forleisure and other
activities
CO2emissions
total vehicle kmtravelled
energyresources
stock
imports and localgeneration
energy exportsand consumption
Energy & CO2
Mobilities
Skilled labours
Water
Natural Materials
Existingbuilding
stock
Impacts ofFITs/RHIs
Impacts ofgreen deals
Impacts of otherincentives
Privatetransports
attractivess ofATM
pedestration andcycling routes
prices attractivenessof ATM
Availableland
resources occupyingland
Utilisedland
resources
demolition
demolationrates
processingcapacityprofitability for
farmers
new ATMusers
new privatetransports users
Total energyconsumption
urbanagriculture
Population
Waste
Land Uses
electrical vehcilesinstallations
birth ratedeath rate
land usespolicies
constructioncost
whole lifecosts labour
demand
<Population>
rain watercollectionsimpacts of
stormwater
soft landscaping andother SUDs methods
newhomesdemolition
rate
multi functionaluses of land
Apprenticeshipand Training
Capacity
demand for newhomes labour forces
increase
Retrofit as an emergent process…
Improvement
Innovation
Repair
Maintenance
Retrofit ‘Regimes’: a Socio-Technical Perspective
Technologies
Infrastructures
Skills & Training
User Practices
SharedExpectations
Culture & Heritage
Policies and Regulations
Institutions
Networks of
Actors
Buildings
Retrofit Regime1
Technologies
Infrastructures
Skills & Training
User Practices
Expectations
Culture & Heritage
Institutions
Policies & Regulation
Networks of Actors
Buildings
Retrofit Regime3
Technologies
Infrastructures
Skills & Training
User Practices
Expectations
Culture & Heritage
Institutions
Policies & Regulation
Networks of Actors
Buildings
Retrofit Regime2
Technologies
Infrastructures
Skills & Training
User Practices
Expectations
Culture & Heritage
Institutions
Policies & Regulation
Networks of Actors
Buildings
Retrofit Regime4
www.retrofit2050.org.uk