Project Estimation: Myths, Taboos, and Inconvenient Truths
Transcript of Project Estimation: Myths, Taboos, and Inconvenient Truths
BW10Session6/8/164:15PM
ProjectEstimation:Myths,Taboos,andInconvenientTruths
Presentedby:
RobertMerrill
UniversityofWisconsin-Madison
Broughttoyouby:
350CorporateWay,Suite400,OrangePark,FL32073888---268---8770··[email protected]://www.techwell.com/
RobertMerrillUniversityofWisconsin-MadisonAsahurricanescientistinthe1980s,RobertMerrillknewestimationwasaboutforecastingandresponse.(Controlnevercrossedhismind.)Asascientificapplicationsprogrammerinthe1990s,Roberthonedhisestimationskillsinself-defenseagainstprojectmanagement.In2003,askedtocreateafailure-proofapplicationcontractinganddeliveryprocess,Robertfinallyfacedtherealityoftheestimationproblemandgraspedthebusinessessenceofprojectsuccess.Histarget-budget,variable-scopeapproachhelpedturnaroundhisprojectstoprofitability,referenceability,andsustainability.Hethenspentsevenyearsasanindependentconsultant,refiningtheprinciplesandmakingthemclearandconvincing.RobertpresentlyservestheUniversityofWisconsin-Madisonasaprojectintakespecialistandbusinessanalyst.
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Warm-upIntroduce yourself to your neighbor.Answer, “How do you produce, consume, or experience project or release-level estimates?”Describe your feelings about the topic of estimation.
Robert T. MerrillSenior Business AnalystDivision of Information Technology (DoIT)University of Wisconsin–Madison
Project EstimationMyths, Taboos, and Inconvenient Truths
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The Estimation Problem1. Estimates are ranges2. Ranges are larger than we think3. Ranges cost more to reduce than we feel they should, or can afford4. Ranges are too big to live with
What I want you to hear1. Estimation Problem drives many others2. Thinking is impaired
– Myths (blindness)– Taboos (shame)– Inconvenient Truths (avoidance)
3. A respectful solution
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McConnell’s Cone
Reading the Cone1000 h
4x1000=4000 h0.25x1000=250 h
“Initial Concept” estimateExpect 16x range
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Behind the ConeScatter2x
½x
Cone Caveats1. Not your shop, not your data2. YMMV, and probably worse3. Doesn’t converge if you’re dysfunctional
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For every complex problemthere is an answer that isclear, simple, and wrong.—H. L. Mencken
Clear, Simple, & Wrong
The solution is properdefinition and planning
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Cone Ranges and Costs“Up Front”doesn’t equal “Instant and Free”
4x 2x
% of Project Cost Estimate Range, low to highBuffer, % of 50/50 estimate
2-4% ~4x 100%4-6% ~3x 70%
8-12% ~2x 40%20-25% ~1.5x 20%
Cost of Accurate Estimates
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Sources of Uncertainty
The Estimation ProblemWe can’t afford estimatesthat are accurate enoughto make estimation errorsa non-significant risk.Inconvenient Truth
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That’s what eveningsand weekends are for
Crunch ModeStanford
Stanford Univ. Dept. of Computer Science
“Thus, while employers do notallow their employees to come towork drunk, they oftenperpetuate working conditionslike crunch mode that yield thesame net effect.”
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PRESSURE!PRESSURE!
Doom Loop: PressureDoom Loop: Mistakes
PRESSURE!PRESSURE!MoreTo Do!
MoreTo Do!MoreTo Do!MoreTo Do!
Doom Loop: PressureDoom Loop: More Work!
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Cost
Quality
The software most of us are making
AvionicsNuke ControlsRadiotherapy
Cost-Quality curve
DoomLoopZone
Schedule
Cost ParkinsonZone
Cost-Schedule Curve
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I just need a rough estimate.I won’t hold you to it.—Pinocchio
Management has a legitimate need for estimatesInconvenient Truth
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Estimates aren’t commitments
What they ask forRange and probabilitiesaround a requestWhat you agreeto try to make happen
Vocabulary• Request / Demand
• Estimate
• Commitment
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Is it an estimate?• Project effort estimate is 3500 h• Project effort has a 50% chance of being 3500 hours or less• Project duration is estimatedat 6-8 months• The 50%-90% chance project duration is 6-8 months
YesOK, but…
Yes
Avoiding Games & Drama• Vocabulary• Awareness (“Thomsett estimation games”)
https://www.cutter.com/article/double-dummy-spit-and-other-estimating-games-405811• Hard Soft Skills Dialogue Boundaries Negotiation
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Padding is unprofessional
Commitments?
Estimates?
Trains always on time. Is this happening?
Isn’t thismore common?
Parkinson’s Law?
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In the beginning…In the beginning was the ship date, and the specification was without form, and void…--Inception 1:1
Scope: A Big Pile of Rocks
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Which do you understand?
Where uncertainty really isProject uncertaintyreally wants to bein the scope.
Inconvenient Truth
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Cutting scopemeans we’ve failed
Project Success RedefinedProject Successis delivering results that areworth more than they costwithout running out oftime and money.
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We do this.We always scope projects to fit.That’s what you heard,not what I mean
I can’t estimate
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No, you can’t, can you?
The hardest thingis giving upthe illusion of controlat the beginning.—”Uncle Bob” Martin
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This sounds like a cop-out!• BAs, stakeholder analysis is good• So is data and function modeling• PMs, planning is goodBut the estimation problem remains!Diminishing returns, folks!
Variable scope? How?• A dice game• Burn-up charts
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Estimation Risk GameWork in pairs or threes~15 minutesFollow the instructions first, then experimentThen we’ll discuss
The Scope-Schedule Swap
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1. Crazy big ranges2. Don’t squeeze the goose3. Up-front work can’t save you4. Pad the scope5. Do Phase Two right away6. Included for free with agile