Project disentangling the relationship between corruption, economic growth,fdi and oil production...

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1 MODULE TITLE: INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS REPORT MODULE CODE: EC7P80 PROJECT TITLE: DISENTANGLING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CORRUPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, FDI AND OIL PRODUCTION: CASE STUDY OF NIGERIA WORDCOUNT: 9857 DUE DATE: 19 JANUARY 2016 NAME: ISHENDINAYE SILAS KADZOMBA MA INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS LON MET ID: 14023415

Transcript of Project disentangling the relationship between corruption, economic growth,fdi and oil production...

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MODULE TITLE: INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS REPORT

MODULE CODE: EC7P80

PROJECT TITLE: DISENTANGLING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN

CORRUPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, FDI AND OIL PRODUCTION:

CASE STUDY OF NIGERIA

WORDCOUNT: 9857

DUE DATE: 19 JANUARY 2016

NAME: ISHENDINAYE SILAS KADZOMBA

MA INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

LON MET ID: 14023415

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Abstract

Resource curse hypothesis has attracted a significant amount of attention in the existing body of research

and it is commonly used to explain the poor economic growth of some of the oil producing countries.

Corruption plays a vital role within the resource curse as it decreases efficiency of allocating resources and

managing the country as well as deters FDI inflow. The presented research study focuses on Nigerian

context and critically examines the complex relationships between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil

production. The findings of the Pearson’s correlation test and multilinear regression analysis suggests that

corruption is the single key predictor of FDI inflow into the country and hence consequently affects the rate of

economic growth. Moreover, oil production is strongly correlated with the level of corruption supporting the

validity of the resource curse hypothesis in the context of Nigeria. Building on the systemic conceptualisation

of corruption depicted by Persson, Rothstein and Teorell (2013), this study concludes with an outline of

potential policy recommendations and areas in need of further investigation.

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Table of Contents

Abstract 2

Table of Contents 3

1. Introduction 4

1.1 Case Study Background 4

1.2 Aim and Objectives 5

1.3 Rationale 5

1.4 Structure 5

2. Literature Review 7

2.1 Resource Curse Hypothesis 7

2.2 Corruption 9

2.3 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 11

2.4 Summary 12

3. Methodology 13

3.1 Research Strategy 13

3.2 Research Method 13

3.3 Data Reliability 13

3.4 Data Analysis 14

4. Analysis and Discussion 15

4.1 Descriptive Statistical Analysis 15

4.2 Inferential Statistical Analysis 17

4.2.1 Pearson’s Correlation Test 18

4.2.2 Comparative Analysis 19

4.2.3 Multilinear Regression Analysis (FDI) 22

4.2.4 Multilinear Regression Analysis (Economic Growth) 24

4.3 Discussion 26

5. Conclusion 28

5.1 Practical Implications 29

5.2 Limitations 29

5.3 Further Research 29

Reference List 30

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1. Introduction

The estimates of corruption in Nigeria provided by UNODC (2015) suggest that over $400 billion had been

stolen in the period from 1960 to 1999. The perceived level of corruption in Nigeria is very high, resulting in

the Transparency International Index score of 2.7 (10 being the highest; Source: transparency.org, 2014).

Moreover, a recent survey amongst inhabitants of Nigeria revealed that over 40% of court users have been

asked for bribes (UNODC, 2015), thus demonstrating the systemic nature of corruption in the country. The

existing body of economic literature suggests that corruption fuels the resource curse hypothesis, according

to which the level of natural resources in a country in fact inhibits its economic growth (Apergis and Payne,

2014). Consequently, fighting the corruption in Nigeria has become a major initiative aiming to produce a

substantial positive impact on the level of economic growth and development (UNODC, 2015). The existing

body of research however highlights the highly complex nature of this phenomenon. Abundance of oil

reserves has been linked with impeded economic growth (Apergis and Payne, 2014), oil production has

been associated with the country’s economic growth (Akinlo, 2012). Furthermore, while foreign direct

investment (FDI) has been assumed to have a positive impact on economic growth as it addresses the

shortage of domestic capital for economic growth (Adamu, Idi & Hajara, 2015), the inconclusive findings

depicted in the academic debate question the potential role of FDI in stimulating economic growth in Nigeria

(Yaqub, Adam & Ayodele, 2013). Additional complexity can be found in the interlink between corruption,

economic growth and FDI (Dreher and Gassebner, 2011; Agbiboa, 2012; Uma, 2013). This stream of

research has so far failed to reach any clear consensus or viable policy recommendations, highlighting the

need for further research.

1.1 Case Study Background

Nigeria, with its population of 177.5 million people, represents the most populous country in Africa (The

World Bank, 2015). Over 250 ethnic groups live in the country resulting in a significant level of tension

amongst the population. Furthermore, 43% of the people are under the age of 14 (CIA.gov, 2015),

demonstrating the high population growth rate. Unfortunately, the Nigerian economy is unable to provide

adequate employment opportunities, leading to a high level of public’s dissatisfaction (The World Bank,

2015). From a historical perspective, Nigeria has gained its independence in 1960, however, both

presidential elections in 2003 and 2007 have been associated with considerable irregularities and violence

(NationsOnline.org, 2015). In terms of the country’s economy, Nigeria has achieved a gross domestic

product (GDP) of $US 568.5 billion, reflecting a 6.3% annual increase between 2014 and 2015 (The World

Bank, 2015). Extreme levels of poverty, unemployment and poor development of social services and

infrastructure represent the key challenges for the local population (CIA.gov, 2015). At the present moment,

over 70% of the population is employed in the agricultural sector. As pointed out in the previous section of

the presented research study, these challenges are further exacerbated by high levels of corruption

prevailing in the studied country.

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1.2 Aim and Objectives

The main aim of the presented study is to investigate the nature of the relationship between corruption,

economic growth, FDI and oil production in the context of Nigeria. This main research aim can be broken

down into the following set of research objectives.

- To review the existing body of theoretical and empirical studies on the relationship between corruption,

economic growth, FDI and oil production

- To examine the strength and significance of correlations between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil

production in the context of Nigeria

- To compare and contrast the uncovered relationships within Nigerian context with the dynamics in other

countries in Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Angola, Cote d’Ivoire)

- To investigate the predictive power of corruption and economic growth in attracting FDI into Nigeria and to

propose a practical set of recommendations for policy makers based on the outcomes of the analysis

1.3 Rationale

The existing body of research has highlighted the vital role of relationships between corruption, economic

growth and FDI in the context of oil producing countries, however, the academic debate has so far failed to

reach any clear consensus on the dynamics of these factors. Moreover, although the studied topic has

attracted a significant amount of attention from the academic community, no prior research has examined all

of these factors at once. Particular streams of research focusing on the relationship between corruption and

economic growth, economic growth and oil production, and FDI and economic growth can be found within

the wider academic debate. However, numerous complex inter-relationships can be associated with these

elements and therefore highlight the need for a more systematic research into the studied topic. As a result,

both theoretical and practical contributions can be expected to emerge from the presented study. On the one

hand, the theoretical contribution can be found in the more holistic conceptual framework which outlines the

inter-relationships between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production. On the other hand, the

conclusions derived from this research study are expected to enhance the current level of understanding of

the role corruption plays economic growth and FDI. As a result, practical implications are expected to be

found in the particular recommendations for policy makers on how to ensure economic growth in Nigeria.

1.4 Structure

The presented research study is structured into five main chapters. The first chapter, Introduction, provides

the reader with a general background into the studied topic, clarifies research aim and objectives and

highlights the underlying rationale for this study. The second chapter, Literature Review, discusses the

existing body of both theoretical and empirical research in order to provide a firm conceptual underpinning

for the examination of the studied relationships between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production

in the context of Nigeria. The third chapter, Methodology, clarifies the research method used for the

purposes of the presented research study. The fourth chapter, Analysis and Discussion, follows the

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methodological approach depicted in the previous chapter and summarises the key outcomes of the

conducted statistical analysis and explores these outcomes in a more detail. Finally, the fifth and the last

chapter, Conclusion, revisits the research objectives depicted in the introductory chapter and concludes the

presented research study by emphasising practical implications, limitations and potential areas for further

research.

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2. Literature Review

This chapter of the presented research study discusses the outcomes of the conducted extensive review of

the existing body of research. Overall, the interlinks between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil

production have attracted a considerable amount of attention from the academic community, especially

within the context of developing countries. However, no prior study has examined the joint effects of these

factors nor the overall dynamics affecting particular interrelationships. The existing body of literature however

provides valuable information in terms of both theoretical and empirical findings relating to the studied

phenomenon.

The literature review chapter itself is structured into three main sections, each focusing on a particular

stream of research depicted in the academic debate. To begin with, the first section focuses on the resource

curse hypothesis which explains the potential link between oil production and impeded economic growth.

Furthermore, the resource curse hypothesis and surrounding literature recognises the vital role of corruption

and mismanagement in the process. The second section of the literature review chapter thereby builds on

the outcomes of the discussion encompassed in the first section and evaluates the relationship between

corruption and economic growth, with a particular focus on the Nigerian context. The third section examines

the nature of the relationship between FDI and economic growth and thus completes the assessment

encompassed in the literature review chapter. Following the three main sections of this chapter, a fourth

summary section is presented which puts together the findings from within individual streams of research

and provides an overview of the theoretical and empirical underpinning for the purposes of this research

study.

2.1 Resource Curse Hypothesis

The resource curse hypothesis stems from the empirical findings which associated high abundance of

natural resources in a country with the impeded economic growth (Ling, Xiao & Zhizhong, 2014). Numerous

studies have confirmed the resource curse hypothesis, particularly in the context of oil producing developing

countries (Apergis and Payne, 2014; Satti et al., 2014; Bjorvatn, Farzanegan & Schneider, 2012; Menegaki,

2013; Osaghae, 2015). The underlying explanation has been attributed to the high level of corruption and

mismanagement which impedes the efficiency of allocating resources. Apergis and Payne (2014) highlighted

the role of institutional quality in the process, suggesting the low institutional quality exacerbates the effects

of the resource curse. Similar conclusions have been drawn by Sarmidi, Law and Jafari (2014). The authors

pointed out the specific threshold of institutional quality necessary for developing countries to translate the

abundance of natural resources into positive economic growth. Moreover, Mokammadi et al. (2014)

uncovered that this effect is particularly strong for low democracy countries which are typically characterised

by ineffective institutions. Building on the macroeconomic perspective depicted in the academic debate,

Osaghae (2015) examined the microeconomic implications of the resource curse hypothesis. The author

investigated whether the presence of natural resources in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria affects the level

of development of this particular region of the country, concluding that it has in fact impeded the relative

economic growth in comparison to other regions of the country. From a contradictory perspective, the vital

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importance of oil in economic growth of Nigeria has been pointed out by Akinlo (2012). However, further

analysis conducted by the author revealed that oil impedes the development of the manufacturing sector.

The positive effects of natural resource on the level of economic growth of developing countries has been

pointed out by Smith (2015), challenging the general consensus depicted in the academic debate. Overall,

despite the largely inconclusive evidence depicted in the existing body of research, the general policy

recommendations revolve around improving financial development and trade openness in order to stimulate

economic growth in a country (Satti et al., 2014). Table 2.1 below provides an overview of the key studies

and their findings as discussed in this section of the literature review chapter.

# Author Title Findings

1 Bjorvatn, Farzanegan & Schneider (2012)

Resource curse and power balance: Evidence from oil-rich countries

The validity of the resource curse hypothesis and the actual impact of oil abundance is mediated by the strength of the government; in a country with a weak government, significant oil reserves typically damage the national economy.

2 Akinlo (2012) How important is oil in Nigeria’s

economic growth?

Although oil has had a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria from 1960 to 2009, its impact on the manufacturing sector is largely negative.

3 Menegaki (2013) An antidote to the resource curse: The blessing of renewable energy

Resource curse hypothesis supported for the oil industry; renewable energy however challenges this assumption.

4 Satti et al. (2014) Empirical evidence on the resource curse hypothesis in oil abundant economy

Abundance of natural resources (e.g. oil) has a negative impact on economic growth. This effect can be reversed by promoting financial development and trade openness.

5 Apergis and Payne (2014)

The oil curse, institutional quality, and growth in MENA countries: Evidence from time-varying cointegration

Improvements in institutional quality can be used to address the adverse impact of resource curse.

6 Sarmidi, Law & Jafari (2014)

Resource curse: New evidence on the role of institutions

The relationship between reserves of natural reserves and economic growth becomes positive for countries that have exceeded a specific threshold of institutional quality.

7 Mokammadi et al. (2014)

The relationship between reserves of oil endowment and economic growth from the resource curse viewpoint: A case study of oil producing countries

Resource curse hypothesis holds only in the context of low democracy countries.

8 Smith (2015) The resource curse exorcised: Evidence from a panel of countries

Contradictory evidence to resource curse hypothesis; significant discoveries of natural resources in developing countries linked to both short- and long-term effects on GDP per capita. Inconclusive evidence in terms of the impacts on employment and economic development.

9 Osaghae (2015) Resource curse or resource blessing: The case of the Niger Delta oil republic in Nigeria

Microeconomic assessment of the resource curse hypothesis in the context of the Niger Delta region provides empirical support for the hypothesis as these regions of Nigeria have been found to be less developed in comparison to other parts of the country.

Table 2.1: Overview of prior research on resource curse hypothesis

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To put it in a nutshell, a prevailing consensus in the academic debate supports the validity of the resource

curse hypothesis in the context of oil-producing developing countries. As a result, the abundance of natural

resources in Nigeria can be associated with a negative impact on the level of economic growth. The

underlying explanation pointed out in the resource curse literature revolves around corruption and

mismanagement both of which impede the effectiveness of the country’s management. The following section

of the literature review chapter builds on the existing body of research on the relationship between corruption

and economic growth and thus extends the discussion encompassed in this section.

2.2 Corruption

Transparency International (TI) defined corruption as the abuse of entrusted power for private gain” and

classified corruption as ‘grand’, ‘petty’ or ‘political’. Every year TI publishes a Corruption Perception Index

(CPI) that “measures perceived levels of Public Sector Corruption Worldwide” (transparency.org, 2014). The

published index ranks countries by how corrupt their public officers are and uses a scale of 0 to 100 where

the lower the country is on the scale, the less corrupt their public officers are. The 2013 Index rates Somalia

as being the most country in the world while Nigeria is the 126th most corrupt country.

Building on the discussion encompassed in the previous section of the literature review chapter, corruption

can be associated with a negative impact on the level of economic growth. The underlying explanation has

been provided by Park (2012) who revealed that corruption decreases the quality of private investments,

leading to a general decrease of the economic growth. Similar conclusions can be found in the work of

Agbiboa (2012) who highlighted the role of corruption in the poor performance of Nigerian economy. From a

microeconomic perspective, Osaghae (2015) also pointed out corruption as the key impediment preventing

economic growth of Nigeria. The general consensus in the academic debate thereby suggests that

corruption represents the single most important challenge for Nigeria (Uma, 2013). Anti-corruption policies

have been at the centre of political agenda in Nigeria over the last few years, however, no significant positive

effects of these strategies can be observed. From a critical perspective, Persson, Rothstein and Teorell

(2013) argued that this apparent failure of anti-corruption initiatives can be found in the failure to properly

conceptualise the phenomenon. Whilst the dominant strategies have assumed that corruption represents a

mere principal-agent problem, Persson, Rothstein and Teorell (2013) argued that it is a collective action

problem requiring a different set of strategies in order to address it.

A number of researchers have linked economic growth with addressing the level of corruption in a country

(Bai et al., 2013; Yusuf et al., 2014). An alternative point of view can be found in the “grease the wheels”

hypothesis proposed by Dreher and Gassebner (2011). The authors suggested that corruption actually

facilitates firm entry and thereby stimulates economic growth in highly regulated economies. Empirical

support for this argument has been presented by Huang (2016) in the context of South Korea. Table 2.2

below provides an overview of the key studies discussed in this section of the literature review chapter.

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# Author Title Findings

1 Dreher and Gassebner (2011)

Greasing the wheels? The impact of regulations and corruption on firm entry

In the context of highly regulated countries, corruption can be linked with “grease the wheels” hypothesis and in fact stimulates FDI and economic growth.

2 Park (2012) Corruption, soundness of the banking sector, and economic growth: A cross-country study

Corruption impedes the allocation of bank’s funds and affects the quality of private investment leading to a decrease in economic growth.

3 Agbiboa (2012) Between corruption and development: The political economy of state robbery in Nigeria

There is a direct significant relationship between corruption and under-development; poverty and slow economic growth in Nigeria can be attributed to high levels of corruption.

4 Okada and Samreth (2012)

The effect o foreign aid on corruption: A quantile regression approach

Foreign aid has been linked with a positive effect on reducing the level of corruption in a country.

5 Freckleton, Wright & Craigwell (2012)

Economic growth, foreign direct investment and corruption in developed and developing countries

In the context of developing countries, the level of corruption mediates the extent to which FDI translates into economic growth.

6 Persson, Rothstein & Teorell (2013)

Why anticorruption reforms fail: Systemic corruption as a collective action problem

The typical conceptualisation of the corruption in terms of the principal-agent problem is inapplicable to the Nigerian context as the corruption resembles more closely a collective action problem. The authors attributed this explanation to the apparent failure of government’s anti-corruption attempts so far.

7 Bai et al. (2013) Does economic growth reduce corruption? Theory and evidence from Vietnam

Economic growth has a positive effect on addressing the level of corruption in a country.

8 Uma (2013) Corruption, economic development and emerging markets: Evidence from Nigeria

Corruption represents one of the most significant challenges impeding the level of economic growth and development in Nigeria.

9 Adenike (2013) An economic analysis of the impact of corruption on economic growth in Nigeria

High levels of corruption impede economic growth in Nigeria and hence, it needs to be addressed in order to stimulate the national economy.

10 Yusuf et al. (2014) Corruption, poverty, and economic growth relationship in the Nigerian economy

Economic growth reduces corruption in Nigeria.

11 Osaghae (2015) Resource curse or resource blessing: The case of the Niger Delta oil republic in Nigeria

Microeconomic perspective on the level of economic growth in Nigeria revealed that corruption and mismanagement in local governments in the Niger Delta region as well as general government deteriorate the performance of the region in comparison to other parts of the country.

12 Huang (2016) Is corruption bad for economic growth? Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries

Anti-corruption policies may in fact undermine economic development of the country. Examples can be made of South Korea where corruption has a positive effect on economic growth and China where economic growth leads to corruption.

Table 2.2: Overview of prior research examining the impact of corruption on economic growth

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To sum up, Nigeria has been historically associated with a high level of corruption and existing body of

research has associated this endemic level of corruption with negative impacts on economic growth of the

country. Freckleton, Wright and Craigwell (2012) went even further and argued that it reduces the positive

impacts of FDI on economic growth. The critical perspective depicted in the academic debate however

suggests that anti-corruption strategies may not be an effective way to stimulate economic growth due to two

particular reasons. On the one hand, these initiatives tend to be based on an improper conceptualisation of

corruption, rendering the anti-corruption practices ineffective. On the other hand, “grease the wheels”

hypothesis supported by empirical findings suggests that corruption can have under specific circumstances a

positive impact on the country’s level of economic growth. The following section of the literature review

chapter examines FDI and its impact on economic growth and thus completes the theoretical examination of

the studied factors within the scope of this research study.

2.3 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

FDI can be associated with three particular positive impacts on economic growth in a country. First, FDI

supplements domestic investment and thereby allows the national economy to grow even if the domestic

capital is insufficient or unavailable (Yaqub, Adam & Ayodele, 2013). Secondly, FDI generates employment

and thus increases the purchasing power of the population (Yaqub, Adam & Ayodele, 2013). The third and

the final contribution of FDI to a nation’s economic growth can be found in the transfer of technology (Yaqub,

Adam & Ayodele, 2013).

Empirical body of research has supported the positive impact of FDI on country’s economic growth as

measure by real GDP (Freckleton, Wright & Craigwell, 2012; Umoh, Jacob & Chuku, 2012; Okoro and Atan,

2014; Idoko, Idachaba & Emmanuel, 2015; Adamu, Idi & Hajara, 2015; Kehinde, Adeyeke & Andrew, 2013).

In practical terms, Idoko, Idachaba and Emmanuel (2015) concluded that a 1% increase in FDI enhances

real GDP by 10%, thus highlighting the need for attracting FDI in order to stimulate a country’s economic

growth. From a critical perspective, Yaqub, Adam and Ayodele (2013) however challenged these

conclusions for Nigeria and argued that the linkage between FDI and economic growth has been largely

inconclusive.

Further examination of the relationship between FDI and the level of economic growth conducted by Inekwe

(2013) distinguished two particular effects of FDI based on the particular sector. On the one hand, FDI into

servicing (e.g. oil industry) has been linked with a positive impact on economic growth. On the other hand

however, FDI into manufacturing sector has been associated with a negative impact on economic growth.

As shown in Table 2.3 below, the practical policy recommendations depicted in the academic debate revolve

primarily around creating greater trade openness to attract FDI (Umoh, Jacob & Chuku, 2012) and

addressing the high levels of corruption in order to ensure that FDI translates into economic growth

(Freckleton, Wright & Craigwell, 2012).

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# Author Title Findings

1 Freckleton, Wright & Craigwell (2012)

Economic growth, foreign direct investment and corruption in developed and developing countries

In both short- and long-term, FDI has a direct positive effect on economic growth in a country.

2 Umoh, Jacob & Chuku (2012)

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria: An analysis of the endogenous effects

A strong correlation between FDI and economic growth has been uncovered in the context of Nigeria within the studied period from 1970 to 2008.

3 Kehinde, Adeyeke & Andrew (2013)

A cost-benefit analysis of foreign direct investment inflows into Nigeria

Based on the examination of the performance of Nigerian economy in the period from 1970 to 2009, the authors highlight a positive impact of FDI on the level of economic growth (measured as real GDP).

4 Yaqub, Adam & Ayodele (2013)

Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical analysis

Although in theory the FDI is expected to have a positive impact on the country’s development as it supplements domestic investment and generates employment, the empirical evidence from Nigeria is inconclusive resulting in a weak relationship between FDI and real GDP.

5 Inekwe (2013) FDI, employment and economic growth in Nigeria

In the context of Nigeria, FDI in manufacturing has been linked with a positive impact on employment rate, however, a negative influence on economic growth. Contradictory relationship exists for FDI into servicing industry (e.g. oil).

6 Okoro and Atan (2014)

An investigation of the impact of foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nigeria: A rigorous approach

The authors openly criticised the methodological reliability of the research methods used in prior research to assess the link between FDI economic growth. Consequent rigorous testing revealed a positive impact of FDI on the level of economic growth in Nigeria.

7 Idoko, Idachaba & Emmanuel (2015)

The effects of foreign direct investment on sustainable development in Nigeria

In aggregate terms for Nigeria, a 1% increase in FDI translates into 10% increase in real GDP, thus demonstrating the significant and positive effect of FDI on the level of economic growth.

8 Adamu, Idi & Hajara (2015)

FDI and economic growth nexus: Empirical evidence from Nigeria (1970-2012)

FDI has a considerable positive impact on the level of economic growth in the context of Nigeria.

Table 2.3: Overview of prior research assessing the influence of FDI on economic growth

2.4 Summary

Overall, the review of the existing body of literature encompassed in this chapter of the presented research

study has highlighted the complex dynamics between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production.

Inconclusive and often contradictory findings can be found in the academic debate, enhancing the need for

further research in order to better understand the studied phenomenon. Furthermore, no prior study has

examined the joint effects of the four factors at once as the focus was predominantly put on examining the

relationships between pairs of these factors (e.g. economic growth and corruption; economic growth and

FDI; economic growth and oil production). This research study thereby builds on the existing body of

research and uses statistical methods (as will be discussed in the following chapter) in order to critically

examine the complex nature of the relationships between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil productio

in the context of Nigeria.

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3. Methodology

This chapter of the presented research study outlines the research strategy and method used for the

examination of the complex nature of the relationships between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil

production in the context of Nigeria. The chapter itself is structured into four main sections, each focusing on

a particular element of the methodological approach: research strategy, research method, data reliability and

data analysis.

3.1 Research Strategy

The presented study relies on a case study approach focusing primarily on the context of Nigeria. The

rationale behind the selection of this case study country can be found in its dependence on revenues from oil

and gas industry to fuel the national economy as well as historically high levels of corruption. Building on the

phenomenological research philosophy, the study recognises the vital importance of contextual factors

affecting the dynamics of the studied phenomenon (Lewis, Thornhill & Saunders, 2007). For the purposes of

the presented research study, four key variables will be included into analysis, namely level of corruption,

GDP per capita, FDI inflow and oil production levels.

3.2 Research Method

To begin with, the level of corruption will be assessed with reference to the index provided by Transparency

International (transparency.org, 2014). This index reflects a perceived extent of corruption in a country and is

assessed on a scale from 1 to 10. Secondly, available data from Google Public Data (2015) will be used to

retrieve values for GDP per capita and FDI inflow. Since the first corruption index for Nigeria has been

established in 1996, the studied period ranges from 1996 to 2013. The third and the final source of the data

comes from Index Mundi (2015) which provides aggregate volumes of oil produced according to countries.

In addition to the dataset for the studied case study country (Nigeria), additional oil producing (Angola, Cote

d’Ivoire) as well non-oil producing (Kenya, Tanzania) countries in Africa will be included in the analysis in

order to investigate the extent to which conclusions drawn about Nigeria can be extrapolated to other

countries in the region.

3.3 Data Reliability

There is the myth that corruption cannot be measured and the available data is vague and subjective rather

than specific. Kaufmann et al. ((2005) debunked these myths while providing about 22 different data sources

that provide perception data on corruption. They believed that corruption can be measured by gathering

informed views from relevant stake holders and by tracking countries’ institutional features. This was also

followed through by Transparency International in that their Corruption Perception Index is based on expert

opinion from around the world. Transparency International in its 2014 report suggests that leading financial

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institutions in the EU and US need to join with fast growing economies to stop corruption from getting out of

control.

Overall, the reliability of the data can be questioned based on two underlying arguments. On the one hand,

the corruption index developed by Transparency International is in fact based on a number of national

surveys (transparency.org, 2014). These surveys are distributed on a national basis and there are

substantial variations between different surveys as well as regions. Typical surveys included in the

construction of the index are as follows: Economic Intelligence Unit (country risk service and country

forecasts), Gallup International, Institute for Management Development, Political & Economic Risk

Consultancy, Political Risk Services, World Development Report, World Economic Forum & Harvard Institute

for International Development (transparency.org, 2014). Since not all of these survey are available for each

of the country included in the list provided by Transparency International, the reliability of the index can be

expected to vary between different countries. Additional limitation of this research method can be found in

the subjective nature of the corruption index which aims to assess the perceived level of corruption and not

the actual level of corruption in absolute terms.

On the other hand, the high level of corruption within the studied countries as highlighted by low corruption

indices in fact questions the reliability of the official figures, such as GDP per capita and FDI inflow.

3.4 Data Analysis

In terms of data analysis methods, this research study relies on the use of a statistical software package

SPSS version 23.0 for Mac OS and both descriptive and inferential statistical methods have been used to

critically examine the studied relationship between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production. On

the one hand, descriptive statistical methods are used to outline the general patterns emerging from the data

in terms of particular longitudinal trends. On the other hand, inferential statistical methods (namely Pearson’s

correlation test and multilinear regression analysis) are used to examine the strength and statistical

significance of the relationships between the four studied variables. The analysis process has been repeated

for each of the four additional countries included in the analysis in order to support the examination of the

validity of the findings derived from data relating to Nigeria.

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4. Analysis and Discussion

This chapter of the presented research study strictly follows the methodological approach depicted in the

previous chapter and aims to summarise the key outcomes of the conducted analysis of the studied

phenomenon. The chapter itself is organised into three main sections. To begin with, the first section focuses

on the outcomes of the descriptive statistical analysis and thereby highlights the general trends and patterns

in the context of the studied variables. Secondly, inferential statistical methods (namely Pearson’s correlation

test and multilinear regression analysis) are used to investigate the strength and significance of the studied

relationships between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production. Finally, a discussion section

brings together the outcomes of the literature review and analysis chapters in order to critically evaluate

further implications of the presented research study.

4.1 Descriptive Statistical Analysis

As shown in Figure 4.1 below, the perceived level of corruption in Nigeria has improved in the period from

1996 to 2014, however, this improvement was relatively minor (from 0.69 to 2.7). Over the last 8 years, the

corruption index has remained fairly stable at the value of 2.7 (transparency.org, 2014).

Figure 4.1: Corruption index for Nigeria (Source: transparency.org, 2014)

In comparison to other countries included in the analysis (as shown in Figure 4.2 below), the perceived level

of corruption in Nigeria represents an approximation of an average value. Both more corrupt (Angola and

Kenya) and less corrupt countries (Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania) have been included in the analysis. However,

the long-term pattern shown in Figure 4.2 below suggests that the level of corruption has been decreasing

most rapidly in the context of Nigeria (1.2 in 2000; 2.2 in 2007; and 2.7 in 2014).

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Figure 4.2: Corruption index, country comparison (Source: transparency.org, 2014)

As shown in Figure 4.3 below, GDP per capita has been increasing exponentially over the last 18 years in

Nigeria and is currently at the value of $US 3,203 (Google Public Data, 2015).

Figure 4.3: GDP per capita, Nigeria (Source: Google Pubic Data, 2015)

FDI inflow into Nigeria has also increased since 2005 when the corruption index exceeded the value of 2.0

(as shown in Figure 4.4 below). The level of FDI inflow has been highly volatile over the last 9 years.

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Figure 4.4: FDI inflow into Nigeria, BoP $US billion (Source: Google Public Data, 2015)

Oil production levels in Nigeria (expressed in thousand barrels per day) have been relatively stable over the

last 18 years with a minor increasing trend over the long-term, as shown in Figure 4.5 below.

Figure 4.5: Oil production, in thousand barrels per day (Source: Index Mundi, 2015)

4.2 Inferential Statistical Analysis

The descriptive analysis encompassed in the previous section of the analysis chapter has uncovered a

potential relationship between FDI inflow into Nigeria and the level of corruption as FDI increased

dramatically once the level of corruption decreased (Transparency International corruption index increased

above the value of 2.0). This section of the analysis chapter builds on the outcomes of the descriptive

statistical analysis and uses inferential statistical methods to assess the strength and significance of the

relationships between particular variables. To begin with, Pearson’s correlation test is used to examine

correlations between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production in Nigeria. Secondly, a

comparative analysis uses datasets for the remaining four countries included in the analysis in order to

investigate the extent to which the relationships between the studied variables are general and to which

context-dependent. Finally, a series of multilinear regression analyses is used to assess the predictive power

of individual factors in determining FDI and the level of economic growth in Nigeria.

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4.2.1 Pearson’s Correlation Test

Table 4.1 below summarises the outcomes of the conducted Pearson’s correlation test to assess the

relationships between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production in Nigeria. The level of corruption

has been strongly associated with economic growth (correlation 0.759, significant at 0.01 level, 2-tailed), FDI

inflow (correlation 0.849, significant at 0.01 level, 2-tailed) as well as oil production (correlation 0.536,

significant at 0.05 level, 2-tailed). Moreover, a strong correlation has been uncovered between economic

growth and FDI inflow (correlation 0.762, significant at 0.01 level, 2-tailed).

Table 4.1: Pearson’s correlation test, Nigeria (Source: SPSS output)

Overall, the outcomes of the conducted Pearson’s correlation test highlight the vital role of corruption in

determining economic growth as well as FDI inflow. Moreover, the correlation between the level of corruption

and oil production as well as between oil production and economic growth supports the resource curse

hypothesis.

Correlations

NIGERIAcorru

ption NIGERIAgdp NIGERIAfdi NIGERIAoil

NIGERIAcorru

ption

Pearson

Correlation 1 .759** .849** .536*

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.000 0.022

N 18 18 18 18

NIGERIAgdp Pearson

Correlation .759** 1 .762** .642**

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.000 0.004

N 18 18 18 18

NIGERIAfdi Pearson

Correlation .849** .762** 1 .565*

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.000 0.000 0.014

N 18 18 18 18

NIGERIAoil Pearson

Correlation .536* .642** .565* 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.022 0.004 0.014

N 18 18 18 18

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

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4.2.2 Comparative Analysis

Two oil producing countries in Africa (Angola and Cote d’Ivoire) and two non-oil producing countries in Africa

(Kenya and Tanzania) have been included in the analysis in order to critically examine the extent to which

the nature of the relationships depicted in the previous section is context-specific and relates to Nigeria only.

The outcomes of the statistical analysis for the remaining four countries can be found in Tables 4.2 - 4.5

below.

Table 4.2: Pearson’s correlation test, Angola (Source: SPSS output)

Correlations

ANGOLAcorru

ption ANGOLAgdp ANGOLAfdi ANGOLAoil

ANGOLAcorru

ption

Pearson

Correlation 1 .660* -.601* .626*

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.010 0.030 0.017

N 14 14 13 14

ANGOLAgdp Pearson

Correlation .660* 1 -.674* .937**

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.010 0.012 0.000

N 14 14 13 14

ANGOLAfdi Pearson

Correlation -.601* -.674* 1 -0.525

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.030 0.012 0.066

N 13 13 13 13

ANGOLAoil Pearson

Correlation .626* .937** -0.525 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.017 0.000 0.066

N 14 14 13 18

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

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Correlations

COTEcorrupti

on COTEgdp COTEfdi COTEoil

COTEcorrupti

on

Pearson

Correlation 1 -0.241 -0.171 -.560*

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.369 0.527 0.024

N 16 16 16 16

COTEgdp Pearson

Correlation -0.241 1 .575* .732**

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.369 0.020 0.001

N 16 16 16 16

COTEfdi Pearson

Correlation -0.171 .575* 1 .745**

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.527 0.020 0.001

N 16 16 16 16

COTEoil Pearson

Correlation -.560* .732** .745** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.024 0.001 0.001

N 16 16 16 18

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Correlations

KENYAcorruption KENYAgdp KENYAfdi

KENYAcorruption Pearson

Correlation 1 .594** 0.216

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.009 0.390

N 18 18 18

KENYAgdp Pearson

Correlation .594** 1 .505*

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.009 0.033

N 18 18 18

KENYAfdi Pearson

Correlation 0.216 .505* 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.390 0.033

N 18 18 18

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

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Table 4.4: Pearson’s correlation test, Kenya (Source: SPSS output)

Table 4.5: Pearson’s correlation test, Tanzania (Source: SPSS output)

In all three oil producing countries (Nigeria, Angola, Cote d’Ivoire), the conducted Pearson’s correlation test

revealed a statistically significant correlation between the level of oil production and perceived level of

corruption. This finding provides substantial empirical support for the validity of the resource curse

hypothesis in the context of oil producing African countries. Moreover, a strong correlation has been found in

all cases between the level of economic growth (GDP per capita) and FDI inflow. However, the correlation

was negative in the case of Angola, suggesting an inverse type of relationship in this context in comparison

to other countries included in the analysis. Overall, the contradictory findings derived from the series of

Pearson’s correlation tests suggest that the nature of the relationships between corruption, economic growth,

FDI and oil production is largely context-dependent.

Correlations

TANZANIAcorrupti

on TANZANIAgdp TANZANIAfdi

TANZANIAcorrupti

on

Pearson

Correlation 1 .746** .628**

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.001 0.009

N 16 16 16

TANZANIAgdp Pearson

Correlation .746** 1 .919**

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.001 0.000

N 16 16 16

TANZANIAfdi Pearson

Correlation .628** .919** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.009 0.000

N 16 16 16

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Model Summary

Model R R Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of the

Estimate

1 .936a 0.876 0.865 1.07003

a. Predictors: (Constant), NIGERIAcorruption

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4.2.3 Multilinear Regression Analysis (FDI)

Tables 4.6-4.9 below summarise the outcomes of the conducted multilinear regression analysis which aimed

to examine the main predictors of FDI inflow into Nigeria.

Table 4.6: Multilinear regression analysis (FDI), Model summary

Table 4.7: Multilinear regression analysis (FDI), ANOVA

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ANOVAa

Model

Sum of

Squares df

Mean

Square F Sig.

1 Regression 89.142 1 89.142 77.856 .000b

Residual 12.595 11 1.145

Total 101.737 12

a. Dependent Variable: NIGERIAfdi

b. Predictors: (Constant), NIGERIAcorruption

Coefficientsa

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients

B Std. Error Beta t

Sig

.

1 (Constant)

-4.597 1.108

-

4.1

49

0.0

02

NIGERIAco

rruption 4.746 0.538 0.936

8.8

24

0.0

00

a. Dependent Variable: NIGERIAfdi Excluded Variablesa

Model Beta In t Sig.

Partial

Correlation

Collinearity

Statistics

Tolerance

1 ANGOLAc

orruption -.111b -0.781 0.453 -0.240 0.579

ANGOLAfd

i .065b 0.488 0.636 0.153 0.675

KENYAcorr

uption -.072b -0.514 0.618 -0.160 0.622

KENYAfdi .024b 0.206 0.841 0.065 0.915

TANZANIA

corruption -.199b -1.290 0.226 -0.378 0.445

TANZANIA

fdi .034b 0.195 0.849 0.061 0.409

COTEcorru

ption -.103b -0.950 0.365 -0.288 0.973

COTEfdi .107b 0.668 0.519 0.207 0.461

a. Dependent Variable: NIGERIAfdi

b. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), NIGERIAcorruption

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Table 4.9: Multilinear regression analysis (FDI), Excluded variables

Overall, the conducted multilinear regression analysis revealed that the perceived level of corruption is the

single key predictor of FDI inflow into Nigeria. This variable alone accounts for 86.5% of the variation in the

dependent variable. As a result, the inferential statistical test has confirmed the observations depicted in the

descriptive statistical analysis section and the level of corruption has a significant impact on the level of FDI

inflow into Nigeria.

4.2.4 Multilinear Regression Analysis (Economic Growth)

The second multilinear regression analysis examines the main predictors of economic growth (as measured

by GDP per capita) in Nigeria. Full outcomes of the statistical analysis can be found in tables 4.10-4.13

below.

Table 4.10: Multilinear regression analysis (Economic growth), Model summary

Table 4.11: Multilinear regression analysis (Economic growth), ANOVA

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Table 4.12: Multilinear regression analysis (Economic growth), Coefficients

Model Summary

Model R R Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of the

Estimate

1 .762a 0.581 0.555 615.39075

a. Predictors: (Constant), NIGERIAfdi

ANOVAa

Model

Sum of

Squares df

Mean

Square F Sig.

1 Regression 8416055.7

28 1

8416055.7

28 22.223 .000b

Residual 6059292.4

97 16

378705.78

1

Total 14475348.

225 17

a. Dependent Variable: NIGERIAgdp

b. Predictors: (Constant), NIGERIAfdi

Coefficientsa

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized

Coefficients

B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) 91.702 255.620 0.359 0.724

NIGERIAfdi 243.008 51.549 0.762 4.714 0.000

a. Dependent Variable: NIGERIAgdp

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Table 4.13: Multilinear regression analysis (Economic growth), Excluded variables

The hypothesised relationship between the country’s economic growth and FDI inflow has been confirmed

by the conducted multilinear regression analysis. Based on the outcomes of the statistical analysis, the level

of FDI inflow explains 55.5% of the variation in the GDP per capita (indicator of economic growth).

4.3 Discussion

Overall, the conducted statistical analysis has uncovered a number of relationships between the level of

corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production. To begin with, the validity of the resource curse

hypothesis for Nigeria has been confirmed as a strong and statistically significant correlation has been

uncovered between the level of oil production and the perceived level of corruption. Building on the notion

that corruption inhibits economic growth, the resource curse hypothesis can be considered confirmed in the

context of Nigeria. Secondly, perceived level of corruption is the key predictor of FDI inflow into the country.

In line with the existing body of research which has associated the level of corruption with a mediating effect

on the relationship between FDI and economic growth, this finding supports a number of propositions

depicted in the academic debate, as summarised in Table 4.14 below.

# Author Title Findings

1 Dreher and Gassebner (2011)

Greasing the wheels? The impact of regulations and corruption on firm entry

In the context of highly regulated countries, corruption can be linked with “grease the wheels” hypothesis and in fact stimulates FDI and economic growth.

2 Park (2012) Corruption, soundness of the banking sector, and economic growth: A cross-country study

Corruption impedes the allocation of bank’s funds and affects the quality of private investment leading to a decrease in economic growth.

3 Agbiboa (2012) Between corruption and development: The political economy of state robbery in Nigeria

There is a direct significant relationship between corruption and under-development; poverty and slow economic growth in Nigeria can be attributed to high levels of corruption.

4 Okada and Samreth (2012)

The effect o foreign aid on corruption: A quantile regression approach

Foreign aid has been linked with a positive effect on reducing the level of corruption in a country.

Excluded Variablesa

Model Beta In t Sig.

Partial

Correlation

Collinearity

Statistics

Tolerance

1 NIGERIAco

rruption .398b 1.331 0.203 0.325 0.279

NIGERIAoil .310b 1.668 0.116 0.396 0.680

a. Dependent Variable: NIGERIAgdp

b. Predictors in the Model: (Constant), NIGERIAfdi

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5 Freckleton, Wright & Craigwell (2012)

Economic growth, foreign direct investment and corruption in developed and developing countries

In the context of developing countries, the level of corruption mediates the extent to which FDI translates into economic growth.

6 Persson, Rothstein & Teorell (2013)

Why anticorruption reforms fail: Systemic corruption as a collective action problem

The typical conceptualisation of the corruption in terms of the principal-agent problem is inapplicable to the Nigerian context as the corruption resembles more closely a collective action problem. The authors attributed this explanation to the apparent failure of government’s anti-corruption attempts so far.

7 Bai et al. (2013) Does economic growth reduce corruption? Theory and evidence from Vietnam

Economic growth has a positive effect on addressing the level of corruption in a country.

8 Uma (2013) Corruption, economic development and emerging markets: Evidence from Nigeria

Corruption represents one of the most significant challenges impeding the level of economic growth and development in Nigeria.

9 Adenike (2013) An economic analysis of the impact of corruption on economic growth in Nigeria

High levels of corruption impede economic growth in Nigeria and hence, it needs to be addressed in order to stimulate the national economy.

10 Yusuf et al. (2014) Corruption, poverty, and economic growth relationship in the Nigerian economy

Economic growth reduces corruption in Nigeria.

11 Osaghae (2015) Resource curse or resource blessing: The case of the Niger Delta oil republic in Nigeria

Microeconomic perspective on the level of economic growth in Nigeria revealed that corruption and mismanagement in local governments in the Niger Delta region as well as general government deteriorate the performance of the region in comparison to other parts of the country.

12 Huang (2016) Is corruption bad for economic growth? Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries

Anti-corruption policies may in fact undermine economic development of the country. Examples can be made of South Korea where corruption has a positive effect on economic growth and China where economic growth leads to corruption.

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5. Conclusion

The aim of the presented research study was to critically examine the complex nature of the relationships

between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production in the context of Nigeria. The analysis and

discussion encompassed in the presented paper relied on both the review of existing body of literature and

statistical analysis using descriptive as well as inferential methods. The outcomes of the presented research

study can be summarised in accordance with the research objectives set out in the introductory chapter.

RO1: To review the existing body of theoretical and empirical studies on the relationship between corruption,

economic growth, FDI and oil production.

The review of the existing body of literature encompassed in this chapter of the presented research study

has highlighted the complex dynamics between corruption, economic growth, FDI and oil production.

Inconclusive and often contradictory findings can be found in the academic debate, enhancing the need for

further research in order to better understand the studied phenomenon.

RO2: To examine the strength and significance of correlations between corruption, economic growth, FDI

and oil production in the context of Nigeria.

Overall, the outcomes of the conducted Pearson’s correlation test highlight the vital role of corruption in

determining economic growth as well as FDI inflow. Moreover, the correlation between the level of corruption

and oil production as well as between oil production and economic growth supports the resource curse

hypothesis.

RO3: To compare and contrast the uncovered relationships within Nigerian context with the dynamics in

other countries in Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Angola, Cote d’Ivoire).

In all three oil producing countries (Nigeria, Angola, Cote d’Ivoire), the conducted Pearson’s correlation test

revealed a statistically significant correlation between the level of oil production and perceived level of

corruption. This finding provides substantial empirical support for the validity of the resource curse

hypothesis in the context of oil producing African countries. Moreover, a strong correlation has been found in

all cases between the level of economic growth (GDP per capita) and FDI inflow. However, the correlation

was negative in the case of Angola, suggesting an inverse type of relationship in this context in comparison

to other countries included in the analysis. Overall, the contradictory findings derived from the series of

Pearson’s correlation tests suggest that the nature of the relationships between corruption, economic growth,

FDI and oil production is largely context-dependent.

RO4: To investigate the predictive power of corruption and economic growth in attracting FDI into Nigeria

and to propose a practical set of recommendations for policy makers based on the outcomes of the analysis

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The conducted multilinear regression analysis revealed that the perceived level of corruption is the single

key predictor of FDI inflow into Nigeria. This variable alone accounts for 86.5% of the variation in the

dependent variable. As a result, the inferential statistical test has confirmed the observations depicted in the

descriptive statistical analysis section and the level of corruption has a significant impact on the level of FDI

inflow into Nigeria. As the level of FDI inflow is predicted by the perceived level of corruption and FDI inflow

translates into economic growth, addressing corruption should be the principal focus of the policy makers in

Nigeria. Given the apparent failure of the previous anti-corruption attempts pursued by policy makers in

Nigeria, a re-conceptualisation of the nature of corruption and consequent re-design of the anti-corruption

initiatives in line with the work of Persson, Rothstein and Teorell (2013) is recommended.

5.1 Practical Implications

The practical implications of the presented research study can be found in the policy recommendations

stemming from the outcomes of the conducted analysis. As the level of FDI inflow is predicted by the

perceived level of corruption and FDI inflow translates into economic growth, addressing corruption should

be the principal focus of the policy makers in Nigeria. Given the apparent failure of the previous anti-

corruption attempts pursued by policy makers in Nigeria, a re-conceptualisation of the nature of corruption

and consequent re-design of the anti-corruption initiatives in line with the work of Persson, Rothstein and

Teorell (2013) is recommended. Moreover, in line with the uncovered relationship between oil production

levels and the extent of perceived corruption, imposing limits on annual oil production can be successful in

addressing the level of systemic corruption in the country.

5.2 Limitations

The main limitations of the presented research study relate primarily to the methodological approach

adopted. The reliance on secondary data represents a limitation on the reliability of the data and conclusions

consequently drawn. Furthermore, given the sensitive and complex nature of measuring corruption levels,

additional limitations can be found in the reliability of the Transparency International corruption index itself.

5.3 Further Research

The analysis encompassed in this research study has uncovered a number of areas in need of further

attention from the academic community. Three particular areas include the development of practical anti-

corruption measures based on the systemic conceptualisation of corruption, investigating effects of

corruption on particular sectors of the Nigerian economy and extending the scope of this research to include

other oil producing countries.

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