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Project Controls Expo – 18 November 2014Emirates Stadium, London
Progress | Position | PredictionThe key to completing projects on time
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About the Speaker
� David Bordoli
David has over 30 years in the construction industry specialising in planning and scheduling, initially with contractors and latterly as a consultant focusing on forensic delay analysis. David is academically and professionally qualified and is the author of numerous high quality papers. He was awarded an MSc degree with distinction for his work on ‘The simulation of construction project delays using network techniques’, the method of analysis now known as ‘Time Impact Analysis’. His book, ‘A Handbook for Construction Planning and Scheduling’, co-authored with Andrew Baldwin, was published by Wiley Blackwell in May 2014. Most recently he has been engaged as an expert on major projects in South Africa and China.
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Cambridge
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Cambridge
Pos Club P W D L F A GD Pts1 Leicester City 42 21 13 8 58 38 20 552 Sunderland 42 21 12 9 69 42 27 54
3 Birmingham City 42 21 11 10 58 38 20 53
4 Chelsea 42 23 7 12 66 52 14 535 Queens Park Rangers 42 18 13 11 75 53 22 496 Luton Town 42 16 17 9 66 45 21 497 West Ham United 42 20 7 15 54 43 11 478 Cambridge United 42 14 16 12 61 53 8 449 Newcastle United 42 15 14 13 53 49 4 44
10 Preston North End 42 12 19 11 56 52 4 4311 Oldham Athletic 42 16 11 15 49 53 −4 4312 Swansea City 42 17 9 16 48 53 −5 4313 Shrewsbury Town 42 18 5 19 60 53 7 4114 Leyton Orient 42 12 17 13 48 54 −6 4115 Cardiff City 42 16 8 18 41 48 −7 4016 Wrexham 42 16 6 20 40 49 −9 3817 Notts County 42 11 15 16 51 52 −1 3718 Watford 42 12 13 17 39 46 −7 3719 Bristol Rovers 42 11 13 18 50 64 −14 3520 Fulham 42 11 7 24 42 74 −32 2921 Burnley 42 6 15 21 39 73 −34 2722 Charlton Athletic 42 6 10 26 39 78 −39 22
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Cambridge – First Half
Cambridge United v Bolton WanderersSaturday 4 April 1981
1
2
3
4
Half time 2-0
Full time 4-0
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Cambridge – Second Half
Cambridge United v Bolton WanderersSaturday 4 April 1981
1
2
3
4
Half time 2-0
Full time 2-3
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1
2
3
4
Half time 2-0
Full time 2-3
Cambridge – Full Time
Cambridge United v Bolton WanderersSaturday 4 April 1981
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Change
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Predictability Time - Construction
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Progress | Position | Prediction
� Active management of time comprises three steps
� Measure Progress� Determine Position� Completion Prediction
Progress
ImpossiblePrediction
DifficultPosition
Easy
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future
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Progress – how much has been done
� Progress� Physically complete (%)
� Time expended� Time remaining� Time to complete
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Position – what is the current status
� Activity Position� time ahead� on schedule� time behind
if S d TN d F, then if (% < 100, P = S + (D x %) – TN, else P = 0), elseif S d TN t F, then P = S + (D x %) – TN, elseif S t TN, then if (% > 0, P = S + (D x %) – TN, else P = 0)
Where: P is the activity position,S is the planned start of the activity,F is the planned finish of the activity,TN is time now,D is the planned duration of the activity, and% is the percentage complete of the activity at time now.
time now
time ahead
time behind
on schedule
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Position – what is the current status
� Project Position� Averaging� Critical Path Methods
SET UP
SUBSTRUCTURES
FRAME
ENVELOPE
FIRST FIX
JOINERY
M & E SECOND
FIT-OUT
COMMISSION
END
-2-10+1
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Position – what is the current status
� Project Position� Averaging� Critical Path Methods� Planned Progress Monitoring� Earned Value Analysis
planned
actual
planned
actual
£ m
illio
nPP
M U
nits
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Prediction – when will the project end
� Predicting is the estimation or forecasting of some future event or condition of the project as a result of the study and analysis of available data on the basis of observation, experience or scientific reason.
� Experience� Critical Path Analysis� Extrapolation� Reprogramming
� Parkinson’s Law� Student Syndrome
� Earned Value Analysis
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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
valu
e (£
m)
week number
y = -2E-07x6 + 2E-05x5 - 0.0006x4 + 0.0092x3 - 0.0472x2 + 0.1084x - 0.0257R² = 0.9994
Forecasting Using Earned Value Analysis
BAC(planned
completion)
BCWS(planned)
time now
BCWP(actual)
EAC(forecast
completion)
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Forecasting Using Earned Value Analysis
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
valu
e (£
m)
week number
BAC(planned
completion)
BCWS(planned)
time now
BCWP(actual)
EAC(forecast
completion)
Planned completion date (BACt) = 22.0Time now (BCWSt) = 12.0Current position (BCWPt) = 10.0Rate of Progress (SPI) = 10.0 / 12.0 = 0.83Time not yet completed = 22.0 – 10.00 = 12.0Forecast time to complete (ETCt) = 12.0 / 0.83= 14.5Forecast completion date (EACt) = 12.0 + 14.5 = 26.5
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Forecasting UsingPlanned Progress Monitoring
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PPM
uni
ts
week number
planned completion
planned
time now
actual
forecast completion
Original project duration (D)= 22Project position (P) = 10Time now (TN) = 12
Completion = D x TN / P= 22 x 12 / 10 = 26.4
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A Simple Approach to ForecastingThe Planned Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
posi
tion
week number
x = y
planned completion
planned
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The Actual Model
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
posi
tion
week number
planned
time now
actual
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
posi
tion
week number
Simple Linear RegressionThe Forecast Model
plannedactual
actual trend
forecast
y = 0.8208x + 0.1522R² = 0.9994Regression Equation: y = a + bxIntercept: a = (ΣY - b(ΣX)) / N Slope: b = (NΣXY - (ΣX)(ΣY)) / (NΣX2 - (ΣX)2)
Where x and y are the variables. b = The slope of the regression line a = The intercept point of the regression line and the y axis. N = Number of values or elements X = First Score Y = Second Score ΣXY = Sum of the product of first and Second Scores ΣX = Sum of First Scores ΣY = Sum of Second Scores ΣX2 = Sum of square First Scores
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
posi
tion
week number
Simple Linear RegressionThe Forecast Model
planned
forecast completion
actual
actual trend
forecast
y = 0.8208x + 0.1522R² = 0.9994
x = 26.6x = y - 0.15220.8208
x = 22 - 0.15220.8208
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Project Recovery
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
posi
tion
week number
forecastmaintain
accelerate
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
posi
tion
week number
Ahead and On Programme
ahead
on programme
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Conclusion
> Profitability
� Simple linear regression � Takes account of all the position data� Presents in simple straight-line graphs� Understood by non-specialists� Trends are easier to understand� Change needed to bring the project back on schedule is straightforward
to see.
� Progress trends tend to be influenced by leadership, management, resources, experience and strategy decisions.
� Progress > Position > Prediction
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Questions?
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A Handbook forConstruction Planning and Scheduling
David Bordoli Andrew Baldwin
John Mullen Robert Horne
John Mullen Peter Davison
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Project Controls Expo – 18 November 2014Emirates Stadium, London
Progress | Position | PredictionThe key to completing projects on time