Transcript of Project: Bram Edens, Rutger Hoekstra, Daan Zult, Harry Wilting (PBL), Ronghao Wu (intern) Carbon...
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Project: Bram Edens, Rutger Hoekstra, Daan Zult, Harry Wilting
(PBL), Ronghao Wu (intern) Carbon footprints reconciling academic
and statistical work
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Overview Overview work within statistical community Overview
work within academic community State the problem Possible solution:
SNAC footprint Conclusions and discussion 2
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Overview of footprint calculations at NSIs and other government
agencies NSI/Other Institute Type Country specific IO Years
Environmenta l Regions Industries National Statistical Institutes
Australian Bureau of Statistics SRIOY2007/ 2008GHG140 Statistics
CanadaMRIOY2002&2006GHG4? Statistics DenmarkPartialY2005CO 2
1360 INSEEPartialY2005CO 2 1560 DESTATISPartial/ hybridY2007Energy,
CO 2 1473 Statistics NetherlandsPartialN2009GHG (4)1760 Statistics
SwedenSRION1993-2008 Energy; materials; air emissions 2134 GSO
VietnamSRION2005, 2007CO 2 15 Other government agencies PBL
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Partial and
MRIOY2001GHG (3) and land1357 DEFRAMRIOY1990-2009CO 2 and GHG4123
International institutes OECDMRIOY 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009 CO2
(only emissions from fuel combustion) 5718 EurostatSRION2000-20078
pressures264 3
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Statistical community There is wide range of methods being used
NSIs often use simpler models Focus broader than carbon Clear
interest in additional breakdowns Household characteristics such as
income Dissemination practices of the institutes show that the
results are not always presented as official statistics 4
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Overview of MRIO databases that are currently publically
available GTAPEXIOBASEWIODEora Acronym Global Trade Analysis
Project EXIOPOL: Externality data and input-output tools for policy
analysis World Input-Output Database- InstitutePurdue University
EXIOBASE: FP6 project (EXIOPOL) led by FEEM Database created by
NTNU, TNO, SERI, CML FP7 project lead by the University of
Groningen University of Sydney Years 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2001,
2004, 2007 (years are not comparable) 20001995-20111990-2009 Prices
of previous year --1995-2009- Countries/ Regions 15-129 (depends on
year) 43 (27 EU, 16 non-EU) (95% of the global GDP) 40 (27 EU and
12 non-EU) (80% of world GDP in 2006) 187 Number of industries 57
industries130 industries35 industries100-500 industries
Environmental data Greenhouse gases (CO2, NO2, CH4) Energy use Land
use (split agro- ecological zone) Emissions (56) Materials (96)
Land use (15) Water use (14) Energy use / several energy carriers
Water consumption Land use Emissions of greenhouse gases Air
pollutants Resource use/extraction Generation and treatment of
various types of waste Greenhouse gases Air pollution Water use
Ecological Footprint 5
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Academic work Difference between MRIOs: Aggregation (industries
and/or countries) Construction method: IO based, SUT based, or
trade based Assumptions RoW or ITMs Emission data (modeled or not)
Aim of MRIOs Information about global developments No claim to be
100% correct at national level Focus on consistent method (rather
than best country data) 6
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Carbon footprints for the Netherlands from various MRIO
databases 7 Data provided by Glen Peters and Nori Yamano
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Carbon footprints for the Netherlands: WIOD and Eora 8
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Stating the problem Growing policy interest in footprints, but
no clear answers MRIOs have set the standard, but outside NSIs
capabilities Labour intensive Assumptions MRIOs vs. official
statistics Always inconsistent due to integration/balancing
required: Trade asymmetries Can we reconcile statistical and
academic work in area of footprint analysis? 9
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A SNAC footprint Produce a footprint, based on MRIO, that is
consistent to official statistics of the Netherlands Single-country
National Accounts consistent (SNAC) Main approach: Adjust WIOD to
be consistent to Dutch data Why WIOD? Transparancy Time series
availibility Gain insight why results could be so different 10
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Method Follow WIOD procedure, but overrule with improved Dutch
int SUT: Improved allocation of imports/exports to countries: Trade
in goods: Bilateral trade data (re-exports and domestic trade) from
micro data Trade in services: Trade in services (confidential)
National Accounts Used IO database to isolate re-exports Used IO
database for valuation layers -> basic prices Expand from 35 to
72 industries (CO2 only) Balancing using the WIOD procedure but
keeping the Dutch data fixed 11
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Results: SNAC vs. WIOD 12 Overall difference in footprint: 4-6%
Mainly due to lower foreign emissions NL becomes net exporter of
emissions 20032009 Name SNAC- footprintWIODSNAC-footprintWIOD
Absolute/PercentageMtCO 2 % % Total Footprint206220-6% 202210-4%
Domestic indirect emissions81784% 807111% Domestic direct
emissions41403% 40395% Total Domestic1221183% 1201099% Total
Foreign85102-17% 83101-22% Resident emissions209 205
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Results 2: per capita 13 Source: CBS 2013
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Results for top 10 countries/regions 14 Source: CBS 2013 China
at 19%: largest foreign emissions followed by Germany WIOD:
21%
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Why do SNAC and WIOD results differ? WIOD intermediate
consumption Final consumption expenditure Gross fixed capital
formation Changes in inventories and valuables Gross capital
formation ExportsTotal use at basic prices use36234478-3753101,091
imports (incl ITM)18759220 0268 Total intermediate
inputs549403100-397 Taxes less subsidies on products332190962
Intermediate Inputs adjusted582425109-4105 Value added at basic
prices5100 Output at basic prices1,0910 CBS use41136875752441,096
imports1593720-2200214 Total intermediate inputs57040595-395 Taxes
less subsidies on products1532140 62 Total intermediate inputs
adjusted585437109-3109 Value added at basic prices511 Output at
basic prices1,096 15
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Why do SNAC and WIOD results differ? 2 CBS/WIOD intermediate
consumption Final consumption expenditure Gross fixed capital
formation Changes in inventories and valuables Gross capital
formationExports Total use at basic prices
use114%107%96%33%100%79%100% imports85%63%91% 80% Total
intermediate inputs104%100%95%100%98% Taxes less subsidies on
products45%152%156% Total intermediate inputs
adjusted101%103%100%75%104% Value added at basic prices100% Output
at basic prices100% 16 Differences due to: Re-exports Valuation
layers More detailed information
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Conclusions and discussion 1.Shift: uncertainty within MRIO to
between MRIOs 2.MRIOs are produced for global questions, a
SNAC-footprint is more relevant for national policy makers due to
consistency to country statistics 3.SNAC makes a difference! (at
least for the Netherlands) 4.MRIO producers could quite easily make
a footprint for individual countries using SNAC-philosophy; key
issue is sharing data 5.Need for enhanced cooperation especially in
light of 2008 SNA Between statistical offices Between MRIO
producers Statistical and academic community 17