Programmatic Futures: Global trends & the

opportunity for GreeceAthens, 5 April 2019

Dr. Daniel KnappChief Economist, IAB Europe

Market update

2

Assuming slowdown of overall digital growth to ~7% yoy, programmatic in Europe to grow 2.5x between 2017-23

3

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f

Europe: Programmatic Ad Spend

Programmatic Traditional

+ €17.7bn

€m

Sources: IAB Europe, own calculations

Programmatic is the new ‘digital’: an increasingly unnecessary pre-fix

4

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f

Europe: Programmatic share of total digital advertising

programmatic share traditional share

Sources: IAB Europe, own calculations

5

Greece: excavating the programmatic future

Scope for digital ad growth in Greece

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Greece: Digital Ad Spend per Capita

Low Middle High

Scenarios based on:

• GDP forecasts

• Ad budget migration

• Ad industry development index

+€12.6

+€7.6

+€7.6

Programmatic traction around the corner?

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Greece: Programmatic share of digital today & growth scenario

State of leading programmatic markets 2013-2014

Acceleration of growth 3x*

Sources: Own estimates. Spend estimates based on DSP/SSP data April 2018-March 2019, and benchmark with markets where share is known. Extrapolated to full year. Includes platform companies. May include some traffic from Greece on sites outside Greece.

*Assumption based on typical growth trajectory in previously emerging programmatic markets once critical mass is reached.

Video expands programmatic opportunity

8

How should we define ‘video programmatic’?

9

Prog

ram

mat

ic

Onl

ine

Vide

o

Conn

ecte

d TV

Addr

essa

ble

TV/H

bbTV

Prog

ram

mat

icLi

near

TV

Subs

titut

iona

l Lin

ear

Targ

etin

g

mature emerging theoretical

€4bn today (Europe)

€20bn potential market (Europe)

Video is gaining share of programmatic

10

2013

video banner

2017

video banner

2023

video banner

Sources: IAB Europe historicals, own forecasts

Europe: Video vs. Banner share of programmatic spend

CTV advertising is connector between internet video and living room

11

84

3345

27

7.2

180

144

8166 58.8

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

UK France Germany Spain Italy

Gross Spend on CTV advertising (€m)

2018 2023

Sources: own calculations, SpotX/MTM, company data

Now that the programmatic pipes have been laid: let the real value creation begin

12

AI: fine line between hype & reality

13

55.8%

44.2%

Europe: AI Start-Ups

found to use AI no evidence of using AI

Source: MMC Ventures, n = 2830

CMOs must deliver business results, not just hit marketing KPIs

14%

9%

45%

33%

“Does your marketing organization have its own P&L

to capture revenue?”

No, but plan to in the next 24 monthsNo, and no plans to add within next 24 monthsYes, has own P&LYes, but shares P&L with other business units

Source: Gartner, n = 348

Execution requires the combination of programmatic & custom KPIs

• KPIs: brands increasingly define custom business success metrics

• Orchestration: always-on orchestration, not just buying, across channels is required

• Business integration: adaptive feedback loops between programmatic execution and business needs close CMO/CFO gap

14

Opportunities for Greece

15

Chance for Greece

• Greece has a 2nd mover advantage• Potential & pitfalls of

programmatic have been defined• Chance to build a

sustainable ecosystem• Success will not come

automatically - do’s & don’ts important

16

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Recap: Programmatic share of digital in Greece

Dos & Don’ts

17

Brands

• Ask tough questions• Build in-house expertise• Treat programmatic with the

same care as the rest of your supply chain

• FOFO (Fear of finding out)• Outsource all responsibility

Agencies

• Invest in talent• Cut out bad actors• Embrace transparent models

• Oversell your technology• Hidden arbitrage models

Publishers

• Scrutinize SSPs• Optimize selling paths • Build in-house expertise

• Follow static waterfall models• Undersell for short-term gains

Thank you!danfknapp@gmail.com

+447946007813@_dknapp