profitepaper pakistantoday 21st june, 2012

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profit.com.pk Thursday, 21 June, 2012 SBP GOVERNOR AT MF-CIB NATIONAL ROLL-OUT JERKS… KNEE-JERKS THAT IS… The guvnor’s microfinance lecture numero uno states that multiple borrowing and loan defaults are not really the best thing in the world, and that a certain Credit Information Bureau would pull an elephant out of the proverbial hat to reduce that particular risk. And then he went onto blow SBP’s trumpet as to how it has proven itself to be the godfather of the microfinance sector – no real surprises there... Let’s gape at the oil pendulum Page 02 KARACHI STAFF REPORT Y ASEEN Anwar Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has said that Microfinance-exclusive Credit Information Bureau (MF- CIB) would help microfinance banks (MFBs) and microfinance institutions (MFIs) in developing robust risk manage- ment system and practices, which in turn re- duce the risk of multiple borrowing and loan defaults. Delivering his keynote address at the national roll-out of MF-CIB here at SBP Learning Resource Centre (LRC) Audito- rium on Wednesday, the SBP governor said the Bureau would open access to credit for millions of potential poor borrowers and re- duce the credit risk cost of the lenders, be- sides lowering the loan price for the borrowers. Anwar pointed out that at pres- ent even the credit-worthy borrowers of mi- crofinance institutions face difficulty in accessing larger loans from MFBs or com- mercial banks due to non-availability of their long history of loans and timely repay- ments with a microfinance institution. “The MF-CIB will facilitate in the ‘grad- uation’ of such livelihood-based workers into small entrepreneurs,” he added. He said this nation-wide MF-CIB will be a major step for both lenders and borrowers with positive impact. “As the CIB expands its op- erations across the country, the quality and efficiency of the loan appraisal process will improve significantly.” SBP believes that a policy framework for credit bureaus is essential for their smooth and long-term growth, he said, adding the Government and SBP have al- ready been working on the development of a legal framework, which will strengthen private CIBs by establishing criteria for li- censing, issuing regulations, and creating oversight mechanism. “All this will result into stakeholders’ satisfaction, and, most importantly, it will boost public confi- dence,” he added. He said that SBP has played a sterling role in the development of microfinance sector as an alternative to conventional banking to serve the lower end of the market. ‘However, there is a global shift from microfinance to inclusive finance, that is, from supporting microfi- nance initiatives in isolation to building in- clusive financial sector,’ he added. Financial inclusion, which is a core component of SBP’s financial sector de- velopment strategy, will also stimulate economic growth for the country, he said, adding that it envisages transforming the financial market into an equitable system with efficient market-based financial services to the otherwise excluded poor and marginalized population including women and young people. Anwar urged upon the CEOs/Presi- dents of MFBs and MFIs to improve corporate governance, management structures and put in place adequate systems & policies in their respective or- ganizations for ensuring protection of consumer rights. SBP is already in the process of revising regulations to ensure that MFBs follow best standards in these critical areas, he said and added: “We count on your wisdom and commit- ment to reach out to millions of finan- cially excluded people.” The SBP gover- nor pointed out that Pakistan has one of the lowest financial penetration levels in the world with 56% adult population totally excluded, and another 32% infor- mally served. “Therefore, it is impera- tive that we all endeavor to bring the unbanked people into the formal bank- ing channels to achieve our collective vi- sion of access to all,” he said. Highlighting some of the recent devel- opments in the microfinance sector, he said that first and foremost, many of our MFBs have undergone recapitalization and re- structuring in the last two years. Resultantly, strong and strategic in- vestors have now entered and are entering in the microfinance sector, he said, adding that secondly, adoption of new technolo- gies and alternative delivery channels such as mobile phone and agent-based banking have radically transformed the distribution channels and retail capacity of the sector. “Finally, SBP continues to invest in various large-scale initiatives in areas of funding, financial literacy, capac- ity building, institutional strengthening and innovations,” said he. SBP encourages that credit growth should be fairly distrib- uted across all economic, social, and geo- graphic segments of the target market. Having second thoughts, are we? g India may not inject $10b for IMF immediately NEW DELHI ONLINE India may not be called upon to give $10 billion ( Rs. 55,000 crore) it has committed to the IMF for bailing out debt-wrecked Eurozone if the global economic situation improves, Indian media reported on Wednesday. "The amount we contribute is entirely liq- uid, in the sense that the Interna- tional Monetary Fund (IMF) assures contributors that it will be available whenever needed. It will, therefore, continue to form part of our re- serves," Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in a statement. Indian of- ficials explained that the situation has not reached a point where the funds committed by Singh at the G20 Summit on Tuesday would have to be transferred to the IMF. According to R Gopalan, Secretary in the Depart- ment of Indian Economic Affairs, "the country may not be called upon to give the money if the world situa- tion gets better." India's contribution to the IMF bailout fund, Singh said, "reflects our recognition that as a re- sponsible player in the global com- munity, we must play our part." The G20 countries, he added, have re- sponded to the need to enhance the resources of the IMF to enable it to play its role in the current situation. "India has contributed $10 billion. BRICS and other countries have also contributed, taking the total commit- ments, including what was earlier agreed in April, to almost $460 bil- lion," Singh added. The Guvnor’s tutorial on microfinance gets emotional… and personal AMER SIAL ISLAMABAD The captive power plants (CPP) of in- fluential business groups, which have emerged as a parallel power sector over the decades, while benefiting only a limited number of industries at the cost of load shedding to the entire nation, is now posing a threat to the entire power sector if its unabated natural gas sup- plies are not immediately stopped. A study carried out by Planning Commission on the gas allocation and its impact on the power sector available with the Pakistan Today notes with con- cern that CPPs are currently estimated to be using 1.2 billion cubic feet gas per day (bcfd) out of which 250 million cubic feet gas per day (mmcfd) alone is allocated to plants in Karachi, which is higher than Karachi Electricity Supply Company (KESC) supply of 153 mmcfd. For immediate solution to the power crisis, the study recommends diverting 800 mmcfd from CPPs to In- dependent Power Plants (IPPs), which will increase generation by 3350 MW. It will help in a savings of $ 5.2 billion. Highlighting that presence of CPP only benefits a few industries while result- ing in load shedding for the entire na- tion, it stresses gas allocation on rational basis as it is a scarce commod- ity. It says gas consumption in the compressed natural gas (CNG) sector has increased by 363 percent from fis- cal year 2004-05 to fiscal year 2010-11, due to its being 33 percent cheaper than petrol and high speed diesel. Di- verting 310 mmcfd from CNG will in- crease power generation by 1300 MW. It will also result in a saving of $ 2 bil- lion on account of low furnace oil con- sumption. Both these steps will help reduce the load shedding by 80 percent as by a simple decision power generation will increase by 4,600 MW and en- hance economic growth. It will also end the circular debt as the power tar- iff differential subsidy (TDS) will be completely eliminated. It will also allow retaining the fiscal deficit close to the budgetary target. To avoid controversy on the facts, the study is compiled on the basis of the published government data upto end fiscal year 2010-11. Power crisis is one of the major reasons for massive decline in investment which have fallen from 23 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2006-07 to 13 percent in fiscal year 2010-11. It says TDS has increased 51 percent per annum over the last 5 years. TDS alone contributed to 30 per- cent in the fiscal deficit last fiscal year. The misallocation of natural gas has intensified the power crisis, points out the study stressing efficient alloca- tion of scarce resource. It says gas allo- cation policy was blatantly violated since 2005, as general industry fourth in the allocation list were the largest beneficiaries. The gas allocation to in- dustries increased by 34 percent or 766 mmcfd and CNG sector by 363 percent or 310 mmcfd over the same period. While the power third on the priority list, after domestic and commercial consumers, was the major loser since 2005 when its gas allocation decreased from 44 percent or 1.3 bcfd in FY 2005 to 27 percent or 924 mmcfd in FY11. Captive Power Plants benefit a handful of industries at the cost of load shedding; not an equation Adam Smith – or any economist with half a chicken’s brain for that matter – would be proud of… CPPs defy logic, belief, reason and math… among other things LOS CABOS AGENCIES World leaders extended by one year their vow not to put up new trade barriers at the Group of 20 summit on Tuesday in a last- minute deal that exposed deep rifts over protectionism. The agreement to refrain from new protectionist measures until the end of 2014 as part of world leaders' efforts to foster global growth was included in the final G20 communique. Mexican President Felipe Calderon said it was hard won and struck only at the very end of two-day talks in the Pacific resort of Los Cabos. "There was resistance from some countries but be- yond that we did manage to get a consensus and arrive at an agreement," he told a news conference after the meeting. Brazil, Ar- gentina and South Africa had resisted ex- tending the trade pledge beyond its current expiry at the end of 2013, while other coun- tries wanted to push it back to 2015, a diplo- mat with knowledge of the G20 trade talks said. The deadlock was broken by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the diplomat said. ALARM RISING: Ahead of the summit, Japan and the European Union had sent strong warnings that free trade was under threat as some countries respond to slowing growth by trying to protect their domestic industries. "The EU is sounding the alarm regarding a worrisome rise in protection- ism," EU President Jose Manuel Barroso said as G20 members arrived in Los Cabos. Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda called for world leaders to stamp out any ef- forts to lessen free trade. "I see signs of pro- tectionism emerging in the G20 debate, so we should deliver a message to counter (that)," he told reporters. Fearful that trade protec- tionism would slow global growth, G20 lead- ers at the height of the financial crisis in November 2008 first pledged to refrain from erecting any new trade barriers, often used to shield domestic businesses from world com- petition at times of economic stress. Despite that effort, a WB report released on Sunday found that G20 nations have accounted for the vast majority of the more than 1,000 new protectionist measures that have been intro- duced between Nov 2008 and March 2012. g Protectionism was conspicuous as top leaders threw their respective toys out of the prams. There was a deadlock over the extension of the ‘trade barrier’ pledge, which was broken by, surprise, surprise, our good friend Supercomrade Putin... 20-20 is hindsight; G-20’s is blindsight PRO 21-06-2012_Layout 1 6/21/2012 12:14 AM Page 1

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profitepaper pakistantoday 21st june, 2012

Transcript of profitepaper pakistantoday 21st june, 2012

Page 1: profitepaper pakistantoday 21st june, 2012

profit.com.pk Thursday, 21 June, 2012

SBP GovERNoR AT MF-CIB NATIoNAL RoLL-oUT JERKS… KNEE-JERKS THAT IS…

The guvnor’s microfinance lecture numero uno states that multiple borrowing and loan defaults are notreally the best thing in the world, and that a certain Credit Information Bureau would pull an elephantout of the proverbial hat to reduce that particular risk. And then he went onto blow SBP’s trumpet as tohow it has proven itself to be the godfather of the microfinance sector – no real surprises there...

Let’s gape at theoil pendulum

Page 02

KARACHI

STAFF REPORT

YASEEN Anwar Governor StateBank of Pakistan (SBP) has saidthat Microfinance-exclusiveCredit Information Bureau (MF-

CIB) would help microfinance banks(MFBs) and microfinance institutions(MFIs) in developing robust risk manage-ment system and practices, which in turn re-duce the risk of multiple borrowing and loandefaults. Delivering his keynote address at

the national roll-out of MF-CIB here at SBPLearning Resource Centre (LRC) Audito-rium on Wednesday, the SBP governor saidthe Bureau would open access to credit formillions of potential poor borrowers and re-duce the credit risk cost of the lenders, be-sides lowering the loan price for theborrowers. Anwar pointed out that at pres-ent even the credit-worthy borrowers of mi-crofinance institutions face difficulty inaccessing larger loans from MFBs or com-mercial banks due to non-availability oftheir long history of loans and timely repay-ments with a microfinance institution.

“The MF-CIB will facilitate in the ‘grad-uation’ of such livelihood-based workersinto small entrepreneurs,” he added. He saidthis nation-wide MF-CIB will be a majorstep for both lenders and borrowers withpositive impact. “As the CIB expands its op-erations across the country, the quality andefficiency of the loan appraisal process willimprove significantly.”

SBP believes that a policy frameworkfor credit bureaus is essential for theirsmooth and long-term growth, he said,adding the Government and SBP have al-ready been working on the development ofa legal framework, which will strengthenprivate CIBs by establishing criteria for li-censing, issuing regulations, and creatingoversight mechanism. “All this will result

into stakeholders’ satisfaction, and, mostimportantly, it will boost public confi-dence,” he added. He said that SBP hasplayed a sterling role in the developmentof microfinance sector as an alternative toconventional banking to serve the lowerend of the market. ‘However, there is aglobal shift from microfinance to inclusivefinance, that is, from supporting microfi-nance initiatives in isolation to building in-clusive financial sector,’ he added.

Financial inclusion, which is a corecomponent of SBP’s financial sector de-velopment strategy, will also stimulateeconomic growth for the country, he said,adding that it envisages transforming thefinancial market into an equitable systemwith efficient market-based financialservices to the otherwise excluded poorand marginalized population includingwomen and young people.

Anwar urged upon the CEOs/Presi-dents of MFBs and MFIs to improvecorporate governance, managementstructures and put in place adequatesystems & policies in their respective or-ganizations for ensuring protection ofconsumer rights. SBP is already in theprocess of revising regulations to ensurethat MFBs follow best standards inthese critical areas, he said and added:“We count on your wisdom and commit-

ment to reach out to millions of finan-cially excluded people.” The SBP gover-nor pointed out that Pakistan has one ofthe lowest financial penetration levelsin the world with 56% adult populationtotally excluded, and another 32% infor-mally served. “Therefore, it is impera-tive that we all endeavor to bring theunbanked people into the formal bank-ing channels to achieve our collective vi-sion of access to all,” he said.

Highlighting some of the recent devel-opments in the microfinance sector, he saidthat first and foremost, many of our MFBshave undergone recapitalization and re-structuring in the last two years.

Resultantly, strong and strategic in-vestors have now entered and are enteringin the microfinance sector, he said, addingthat secondly, adoption of new technolo-gies and alternative delivery channelssuch as mobile phone and agent-basedbanking have radically transformed thedistribution channels and retail capacityof the sector. “Finally, SBP continues toinvest in various large-scale initiatives inareas of funding, financial literacy, capac-ity building, institutional strengtheningand innovations,” said he. SBP encouragesthat credit growth should be fairly distrib-uted across all economic, social, and geo-graphic segments of the target market.

Having secondthoughts, are we?g India may not inject $10b

for IMF immediatelyNEW DELHI

ONLINE

India may not be called upon to give$10 billion ( Rs. 55,000 crore) it hascommitted to the IMF for bailing outdebt-wrecked Eurozone if the globaleconomic situation improves, Indianmedia reported on Wednesday. "Theamount we contribute is entirely liq-uid, in the sense that the Interna-tional Monetary Fund (IMF) assurescontributors that it will be availablewhenever needed. It will, therefore,continue to form part of our re-serves," Prime Minister ManmohanSingh said in a statement. Indian of-ficials explained that the situationhas not reached a point where thefunds committed by Singh at the G20Summit on Tuesday would have to betransferred to the IMF. According toR Gopalan, Secretary in the Depart-ment of Indian Economic Affairs,"the country may not be called uponto give the money if the world situa-tion gets better." India's contributionto the IMF bailout fund, Singh said,"reflects our recognition that as a re-sponsible player in the global com-munity, we must play our part." TheG20 countries, he added, have re-sponded to the need to enhance theresources of the IMF to enable it toplay its role in the current situation."India has contributed $10 billion.BRICS and other countries have alsocontributed, taking the total commit-ments, including what was earlieragreed in April, to almost $460 bil-lion," Singh added.

The Guvnor’s tutorial on microfinancegets emotional… and personal

AMER SIAL

ISLAMABAD

The captive power plants (CPP) of in-fluential business groups, which haveemerged as a parallel power sector overthe decades, while benefiting only alimited number of industries at the costof load shedding to the entire nation, isnow posing a threat to the entire powersector if its unabated natural gas sup-plies are not immediately stopped.

A study carried out by PlanningCommission on the gas allocation andits impact on the power sector availablewith the Pakistan Today notes with con-cern that CPPs are currently estimatedto be using 1.2 billion cubic feet gas perday (bcfd) out of which 250 millioncubic feet gas per day (mmcfd) alone isallocated to plants in Karachi, which ishigher than Karachi Electricity SupplyCompany (KESC) supply of 153 mmcfd.

For immediate solution to thepower crisis, the study recommendsdiverting 800 mmcfd from CPPs to In-dependent Power Plants (IPPs), whichwill increase generation by 3350 MW.

It will help in a savings of $ 5.2 billion.Highlighting that presence of CPP onlybenefits a few industries while result-ing in load shedding for the entire na-tion, it stresses gas allocation onrational basis as it is a scarce commod-ity. It says gas consumption in thecompressed natural gas (CNG) sectorhas increased by 363 percent from fis-cal year 2004-05 to fiscal year 2010-11,due to its being 33 percent cheaperthan petrol and high speed diesel. Di-verting 310 mmcfd from CNG will in-crease power generation by 1300 MW.It will also result in a saving of $ 2 bil-lion on account of low furnace oil con-sumption.

Both these steps will help reducethe load shedding by 80 percent as bya simple decision power generationwill increase by 4,600 MW and en-hance economic growth. It will alsoend the circular debt as the power tar-iff differential subsidy (TDS) will becompletely eliminated. It will alsoallow retaining the fiscal deficit closeto the budgetary target.

To avoid controversy on the facts,

the study is compiled on the basis ofthe published government data uptoend fiscal year 2010-11. Power crisis isone of the major reasons for massivedecline in investment which have fallenfrom 23 percent of GDP in fiscal year2006-07 to 13 percent in fiscal year2010-11. It says TDS has increased 51percent per annum over the last 5years. TDS alone contributed to 30 per-cent in the fiscal deficit last fiscal year.

The misallocation of natural gashas intensified the power crisis, pointsout the study stressing efficient alloca-tion of scarce resource. It says gas allo-cation policy was blatantly violatedsince 2005, as general industry fourthin the allocation list were the largestbeneficiaries. The gas allocation to in-dustries increased by 34 percent or 766mmcfd and CNG sector by 363 percentor 310 mmcfd over the same period.While the power third on the prioritylist, after domestic and commercialconsumers, was the major loser since2005 when its gas allocation decreasedfrom 44 percent or 1.3 bcfd in FY 2005to 27 percent or 924 mmcfd in FY11.

Captive Power Plants benefit a handful of industries at the cost ofload shedding; not an equation Adam Smith – or any economistwith half a chicken’s brain for that matter – would be proud of…

CPPs defy logic, belief, reasonand math… among other things

LOS CABOS

AGENCIES

World leaders extended by one year theirvow not to put up new trade barriers at theGroup of 20 summit on Tuesday in a last-minute deal that exposed deep rifts overprotectionism. The agreement to refrainfrom new protectionist measures until theend of 2014 as part of world leaders' effortsto foster global growth was included in thefinal G20 communique. Mexican PresidentFelipe Calderon said it was hard won andstruck only at the very end of two-day talksin the Pacific resort of Los Cabos. "Therewas resistance from some countries but be-yond that we did manage to get a consensusand arrive at an agreement," he told a newsconference after the meeting. Brazil, Ar-gentina and South Africa had resisted ex-tending the trade pledge beyond its currentexpiry at the end of 2013, while other coun-tries wanted to push it back to 2015, a diplo-mat with knowledge of the G20 trade talkssaid. The deadlock was broken by RussianPresident Vladimir Putin, the diplomat said.

ALARM RISING: Ahead of the summit,Japan and the European Union had sentstrong warnings that free trade was underthreat as some countries respond to slowinggrowth by trying to protect their domesticindustries. "The EU is sounding the alarmregarding a worrisome rise in protection-ism," EU President Jose Manuel Barrososaid as G20 members arrived in Los Cabos.

Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Nodacalled for world leaders to stamp out any ef-forts to lessen free trade. "I see signs of pro-tectionism emerging in the G20 debate, so weshould deliver a message to counter (that),"he told reporters. Fearful that trade protec-tionism would slow global growth, G20 lead-ers at the height of the financial crisis inNovember 2008 first pledged to refrain fromerecting any new trade barriers, often used toshield domestic businesses from world com-petition at times of economic stress. Despitethat effort, a WB report released on Sundayfound that G20 nations have accounted forthe vast majority of the more than 1,000 newprotectionist measures that have been intro-duced between Nov 2008 and March 2012.

g Protectionism was conspicuous as top leaders threw theirrespective toys out of the prams. There was a deadlock overthe extension of the ‘trade barrier’ pledge, which was brokenby, surprise, surprise, our good friend Supercomrade Putin...

20-20 is hindsight;G-20’s is blindsight

PRO 21-06-2012_Layout 1 6/21/2012 12:14 AM Page 1

Page 2: profitepaper pakistantoday 21st june, 2012

news02Thursday, 21 June, 2012

g While easing oil prices are touted as the outlet of respite in our neck of the woods, probably since the $3.77b C/A gapscares the daylight out of our economic mangers, crude dropped in Asia with profit taking and Fed decision paranoiadragging it down. Meanwhile, Japan feels buying oil from Iran would be a great idea. Yeah, good luck with that!

LAHORE

ONLINE

The Nepalese ambassador Bharat RajPaudyal has said Pakistan and Nepalshould focus on the promotion of bilateralbusiness relations ensuring continuedpartnership for progress.

Speaking to the business communityduring his visit to Lahore Chamber of Com-merce and Industry (LCCI), he said theeconomic ties between the two countriescan be enhanced to the best possibility.

The ambassador of Nepal said Nepalgreatly valued its relations with Pakistanthat were based on mutual respect, trust

and shared perceptions on regional and in-ternational issues. Exchange of sector-spe-cific trade delegations, single countryexhibitions, dissemination of economicdata and a proactive involvement of cham-bers of commerce in the two countries cando miracles as far as two-way business isconcerned, he added. He said Nepalesebusinessmen felt quite comfortable whiledealing with their Pakistani counterparts.

He expressed the opinion that the fastchanging global scenario called for innova-tive economic strategies therefore the busi-nessmen in the two countries should joinhands for a better tomorrow. He said thatat present the mutual trade ties between

Pakistan and Nepal are negligible and thestate of affairs asked for an increased fre-quency of reciprocal visits by the Pakistaniand Nepalese business community.

The Ambassador urged the ActingPresident, LCCI, to bring a delegation ofLCCI to Nepal for having first hand knowl-edge about the economic opportunities inNepal as frequent visits were a way to ex-pand business ties. His deputy, DP Bhan-dari also gave a detailed presentation onavailable business opportunities in Nepal.

The LCCI Acting President Kashif You-nis Meher, Vice President Saeeda Nazarand Vice President SAARC Chamber ofCommerce and Industry Iftikhar Ali Malik,

Former LCCI Senior Vice President AbdulBasit and former Vice President AftabAhmad Vohra shared their point of view onthe subject. The LCCI Acting PresidentKashif Younis Meher termed Nepal as animportant partner for Pakistan in theSAARC region. “As far as mutual trade tiesare concerned, both the sides need to domuch more to know about each others' po-tential areas,” he noted.

He emphasized on an improved peo-ple-to-people contacts on regular basis toadd new impetus to and further invigorateexisting cordial ties. He suggested thatboth the countries should appoint distrib-utors of their respective famous brands in

the two countries. He also suggested jointendeavors for promoting cooperation indifferent fields including health, human re-source development and agriculture andsetting up of joint ventures in textiles andpharmaceutical sectors.

Furthermore, he said, people to peoplecontact, tourism links, exchange of busi-ness delegations, direct air link betweenPakistan and Nepal and establishment ofdisplay centers in each other's countriescan considerably upgrade the bilateraltrade. LCCI Executive Committee Mem-bers including Shoaib Zahid Malik, SheikhMohammad Ayub and Ahmad Husnainalso spoke on the occasion.

A FEW PARTS OF THE MILKY WAY

STAFF REPORT/AGENCIES

THE analysts foresee a big challenge for the eco-nomic mangers in the months ahead as thecountry’s current account deficit widened to $3.77 billion during first 11 months of the current

fiscal year, July-May-FY12. The major source of concernfor the government, the analysts believe, would be its de-pleting foreign exchange reserves to be eroded by the heftydebt repayments to the International Monetary Fund(IMF), especially when the inflow of foreign financing is atthe lowest level. The analysts at InvestCap Research saidthe current account gap swelled to $3.77 billion during11MFY12 compared to a deficit of just $ 79 million lastyear, up by a whopping $ 3,691 million.

“The main reason for this widening CA gap this year ishuge trade deficit,” the analysts said. During the review pe-riod the country’s trade gap ballooned by up 44pc YoY to$13.8 billion whereas it was $9.6 billion during same pe-riod in FY11. The widening deficit gap includes rising im-port bill (up 13% YoY) and flat exports (down 0.3% YoY).Furthermore, the State Bank of Pakistan reported that thecurrent account deficit stood at $ 414 million in May12 asagainst $275 million in April12, up 50pc MoM.

The statistics also reveals that the country's exportsvalue and volumes stood on the declining side to reachat USD22.64bn during 11MFY12 period as againstUSD22.7bn recorded during same period last year,down by meager 0.3%YoY. On the other hand, the im-port during same period were USD36.5bn, up 13%YoYfrom USD32.3bn recorded last year. On monthly basis,country's exports were valued at USD2.17bn, which was6% YoY lower than the level of USD2.2bn during May-11. However, imports were valued at USD3.32bn inMay-12, registering a decline of 0.9% YoY over the im-port of USD3.35bn during May-11, imports during thisyear were mainly supported by decline in international

oil prices. The worker remittances inflows offered con-siderable support to the current account as it posted thegrowth of 19.5%YoY during 11MFY12 to stand atUSD12.1bn compared to USD10.1bn recorded last year.Remittances during May-12 stood at USD1.19bn com-pared to USD1.05bn during May-11, showing surge of13.5%YoY. “However, on the other hand, the decliningtrend of international oil and commodity prices couldpotentially result in CA numbers delivering some reliefin 1QFY13,” said the analysts. Also expected, they said,was improvement in the Pak-US relations that could bea key positive development for re-initiation of CoalitionSupport Fund program and other civilian and militaryaid foreign flows which will decrease the pressure oncountry's external account.CRUDE DOWN IN ASIA ON PROFIT-TAKING:

Crude slid in Asia on Wednesday with traders takingprofit from overnight gains aseuphoria over a speculated USFederal Reserve stimulus offsetpersistent worries about Europe,analysts said. New York's maincontract, light sweet crude for de-livery in July, fell 19 cents to$83.84 a barrel on its lasttrading day and Brent North Seacrude for August delivery shed 13cents to $95.63. Oil traders were cashing outof the market after a rally in late trade Tuesday fu-elled by talk of Fed action to boost the flagging USeconomy, said Jason Hughes, head of premium clientmanagement for IG Markets Singapore. "We've seen theoil price ease a bit in the Asian session so far, perhapsthat's in line with the view that people might be takingsome short-term gains," he told AFP. The Federal Reserveon Tuesday began another crunch policy meeting underthe pall of subpar US jobs growth and a European debtcrisis that could slowly squeeze the life out of the global

recovery. Many on Wall Street were betting that the badnews forces the Fed to come to the rescue -- altering itsbond portfolio or piling more assets on its already consid-erably swollen balance sheet. But Hughes said traderswere taking a second look at their expectations of drasticFed action to jumpstart the economy of the world's largestoil consumer after the initial euphoria.JAPAN MOVES ONE STEP FORWARD IN BUY-

ING OIL FROM IRAN: Despite the ban from EU, theparliament of Japan has given the approval to accept thegovernment’s guarantee on insurance for importingcrude oil from Iran . The decision of the parliamentwould pave the way for oil purchase for Japan from

Iran.The law will take effect onJune 27, a government official

said on Tuesday. It allows theJapanese government,

which has succeeded ingetting a waiver from U.S.financial sanctions, toprovide cover of up to$7.6 billion for each

tanker carrying Iraniancrude bound for Japan in the

event of accidents. A Eu-ropean Union ban onmember countries im-

porting Iranian oil takes effecton July 1 and includes a banon EU insurance firms from

covering Iran's exports. That isa headache for Japan, South Korea, China and India,which together buy two-thirds of Iran's oil exports andrely on EU companies to insure them. EU and U.S. sanc-tions aim to cut the oil revenues on which Tehran de-pends to force it to curb its nuclear program. The Westsuspects Iran's aim is to develop nuclear weapons, whileTehran says it needs reactors to provide electricity.

Anotherbizarre linkup? g Govt links external debt

sustainability with foreignexchange earnings capacity

ISLAMABAD

ONLINE

The government has linked externaldebt sustainability of the country withforeign exchange earnings capacity ofthe economy as public debt to revenueratio is consistently rising against PublicDebt-to-GDP ratio, say an official. Inthe current financial year ending June30, 2012 public debt to revenue ratio ofthe country is expected to stand at 414per cent against Public Debt-to-GrossDomestic Product (GDP) ratio which hasbeen hovering around 60 per cent in lastfour years. Official said that governmentwas need to contain primary deficitthrough enhancing revenues and ration-alization of current expenditure particu-larly untargeted subsidies and toimprove the external debt sustainability,foreign exchange earnings needs to beenhanced through focusing on exports,workers’ remittances and attracting for-eign investment so that public debt canbe made sustainable. According to offi-cial, the higher fiscal deficit is adding topublic debt and pre-empting a majorchunk of revenues to service.

Euro weakensin Asian trade

TOKYO

APP/AFP

The euro weakened in Asian trade onWednesday as worries about the eurozonecontinued to weigh while traders lookedto a US Federal Reserve policy meetingfor signs of further stimulus measures.The common currency was changinghands at $1.2670 and 99.97 yen in Tokyomorning trade, easing from $1.2688 and100.16 yen in New York late Tuesday. Thedollar was flat at 78.88 yen."Asian tradelacks direction," said Yukihiro Ichikawa,manager at Hachijuni Bank's forex group."Worries over immediate eurozone tur-moil have receded after the Greek elec-tions, where pro-austerity parties won."But the bottom-line trend of a weak eurohas not changed. Greece will need moremoney sooner or later." The euro roseovernight after a moderately successful, ifexpensive, Spanish bond auction. TheTuesday sale saw Madrid raise 3.04 bil-lion euros ($3.8 billion), beating a 2.0-3.0-billion-euro target and after worriesabout Spain spiked in the wake of a 100-billion-euro bailout to prop up its trou-bled banks. However Spain still had topay sky-high rates to lure investors --5.074 percent for 12-month debt and5.107 percent for 18-month debt. Marketswere also eyeing the Fed's two-day policymeeting starting Tuesday, amid specula-tion that the bank will launch furtherstimulus, including chopping interestrates, to spur the world's largest economy.

BHARAT RAJ AT LCCI!

Let’s gape at the oil pendulum

ISLAMABAD

STAFF REPORT

Pakistan Institute of Development Eco-nomics (PIDE) organized an INVITEDlecture on ‘Pakistan and the IMF’ by Dr.Meekal Ahmed, Visiting Senior Fellow,PIDE and formerly Senior Advisor to Ex-ecutive Director IMF and Joint ChiefEconomist, Pakistan Planning Commis-sion, here on Wednesday. Mr. Shahid Kar-dar, former Governor State Bank ofPakistan presided over the invited lecture.In his lecture Dr. Meekal analyzed theIMF’s interaction with Pakistan. He said agreat deal is written and said about theIMF’s interaction with Pakistan, none of itgood, most of it couched in sweeping neg-ative terms and some of it quite hostile.

He held that at the same time in Pak-istan who have a deep abiding commit-ment to economic reform and feelfrustrated by the fact that so little reformshas been undertaken think that the IMFhave been insufficiently tough on Pak-istan, letting Pakistan off the hook timeand again rather then taking the opportu-nity of a critical situation to push through

much-needed reforms. Dr. Meekal addedthat to some this suggests that the IMF isin cahoots with Pakistan’s elite and is notwilling to stare down powerful vested in-terests in agriculture, the stock market, thereal estate sector and services which re-main untaxed. “Yet, despite all the pro-grams we have had with the IMF and thelegions of technical assistance missionsand fiscal experts, the tax system remainsdysfunctional, discriminatory, and corruptwith too many exemptions, concessions,tax arrears, non-filers and under-filers.Pakistan’s tax to GDP ratio after 64 yearsis still amongst the lowest in the world andrisks falling further,” he said.

He discussed that the fund is accusedof being anti-poor forcing countries to cutspending in the social sectors such ashealth, education and so on, is untrue. Theprerogative of where to cut spending, gen-erally a better route to fiscal adjustmentthan raising taxes, belongs to the countryauthorities, not the fund. “The fund is nei-ther clairvoyant nor omnipotent and hasmade mistakes most spectacularly in Asia.For our part, we need to reflect on way weare a ‘prolonged user’ of fund resources

and unable to get out of their clutches andstay out like other successful developingcountries have done,” he said. FormerGovernor State Bank, Shahid Kardar saidthat in Pakistan we have no proper imple-mentation mechanism to seriously under-take any policy reforms. He said, “We havehigh default rate in electricity bill pay-ment, as private sector is defaulter of Rs160 billion the question rises why we notdisconnecting them?. On the other handwe have 34, 000 registered electricitycommercial users of which only 4000 filetax returns. He emphasized on gover-nance issues and lack luster priorities ofpolicy makers. He categorically pointedout that bureaucracy is just not willing orcommitted for economic reforms. Hepointed out that for political reasons theagriculture sector is not taxed but are get-ting huge subsidies on fertilizers. Whilespeaking on the occasion, Vice Chancellor,PIDE, Dr. Rashid Amjad said that in last20 years Pakistan had been through 15IMF programmes with very little to showfor them. In the current uncertainty theinvestment rate has dropped to 11 percentof GDP the lowest in the country’s history.

Pakistan and IMF: a road to nowhere There’s good news for‘Prime Customers’g They may get Rs5m clean credit

card, personal loan from banksKARACHI

STAFF REPORT

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has al-lowed the banks and Development FinanceInstitutions (DFIs) to assign clean creditcard and personal loan limits up to a maxi-mum of Rs 5 million with a sub-limit of Rs2 million on clean personal loans to their“Prime Customers”. The higher clean limitsfacility has been provided to banks andDFIs with a view to providing flexible treat-ment to their prime customers. However,aggregate exposure of banks and DFIs inrespect of prime customers has beencapped at up to 20 percent of the total ex-posure on account of credit cards and per-sonal loans, said an SBP circular issued tothe banks and DFIs on Wednesday. In viewof this facility to prime customers, the fol-lowing paragraph has been added afterParagraph 3 of Regulation R-7 of Pruden-tial Regulations for consumer financing.

g No we’re not going back to the late 1930s, that’s the name of the Nepalese ambassador

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Page 3: profitepaper pakistantoday 21st june, 2012

Ufone customers can nowfind and set their favourite UTuneswith ‘SMS Song Search’ISLAMABAD: While living up to its standard, Ufone,one of the leading telecom operator in Pakistan, has in-troduced yet another amazing service called SMS SongSearch which enables its customers to find/set anyUTune of their choice via an SMS. After finding theUTune of their choice, customers can select the desiredoption and set it as their default UTune. Mobile com-munication technologies have evolved independentlyacross continents and there is significant challenge inachieving success while introducing innovative serv-ices. Ufone customers can search for UTunes from thecurrent library of songs by sending song name, moviename or the singer’s name to short code 6766. In replythey will receive a list of songs matching the keywordsthat have been sent. SMS charges to 6766 are Rs. 2+tax/SMS whereas the browsing charges in the SMSmenu are Rs.0.50+T/SMS . Time and time again Ufonehas been offering unmatched packages and servicesthat have met the changing needs of their customers.The organization has always been keen to introduce themost competitive products and services in the market.

PSo, PARCo collaborate to save$130 million dollars annually KARACHI: As part of it’s new vision, Pakistan State Oil(PSO) has embarked upon a strategy of domestic self-re-liance by maximizing fuel upliftment from local refiner-ies. This will result in multiple benefits including reduceddependency on foreign fuel imports, increased through-put of local refineries and savings of foreign exchangeworth an estimated $130 Million dollars per annum.

NIT’s promotional kiosk from 22nd June KARACHI: NIT’s sales promotion teams are organizinginformative kiosk services in major cities of Pakistan tocreate awareness among public about the benefits of in-vesting in NIT funds and its tax benefits to the investors.In this connection NIT will set up three days kiosk atExpo Centre, Karachi from 22 nd to 24 th June, 2012 tobrief public about the opportunities of profit by invest-ment in NIT funds. Life Style exhibition is a permanentevent of local marketing calendar, combining consumermarketing and corporate sector to provide a showcase toPakistani products and services. Expo Centre is famousfor catering thousands of visitors daily due to its localeand facilities. It is expected that hundreds of people willvisit NIT kiosk for obtaining information on NIT Funds.

LUMS becomes first Pakistaniuniversity to embrace ExD, SAP ERPKARACHI: Lahore University of Management Sci-ences (LUMS) – one of the most renowned universitiesin Pakistan partners with SAP and ExD Pakistan – aleading enabler of better-run businesses, to implementa robust ERP solution within its campus that will fosteran improved and more collaborative environmentamong students, administration and faculty alike. Theimplementation process of SAP ERP solution at LUMSwill be facilitated by Excellence Delivered. In today’shighly competitive climate, immediate access to andanalysis of all operational and academic data ultimatelydetermines the success of an educational institution.The ERP solution from SAP aims to provide LUMS ad-ministration and management with real-time access toinformation tailored to their individual requirements.

Khushhalibank Sports festivalin Mandi BahauddinISLAMABAD: Khushhalibank sponsored a Sports Fes-tival in Bhojowal village, Mandi Bahauddin. The festivalconsisted of an exclusive Kabaddi match, which wasplayed between two local teams. Aimed at promoting so-cial events through healthy sports activities among thelocal people and villagers, Khushhalibank Sports Festivalis the first mega sports event being organised at MandiBahauddin by any financial institution on a large scale.The festival was attended by a large number of local res-idents, including young spectators, people especiallyfrom low income groups, villagers and farmers etc.

Mobilink, UNESCo launch‘Mobile Based Literacy’ programme

LAHORE: Mobilink has partnered with UNESCO tolaunch the third phase of the ‘Mobile Based Literacy’program - A broad based initiative continuing since theyear 2009. The program is a unique initiative that uti-lizes mobile technology to improve literacy for femalestudents, aged 15 to 25 years, in rural and deprived

areas. The ‘Mobile Based Literacy’ program is an evo-lution of the previous ‘SMS for Literacy’ program, withthe third phase of the project designed to use the mobilephone both for learning and communication betweenthe teachers & students, as well as teachers & supervi-sors. In the third phase of the program 2500 studentswill be given basic literacy skills through by communi-cating with teachers through SMS based interactive les-sons. As a value addition the third phase will alsoenable 100 participating teachers to coordinate with su-pervisors and report on student progress via data en-abled SIMs provided by Mobilink. The current phasealso extends th outreach of the program, reaching outto learners in KPK and Punjab through 100 learningcenters. Jahanzeb Taj, Vice-President Marketing, Mo-bilink, highlighted, “ICT provides some of the mostpowerful methods to help us in our efforts to eradicateilliteracy in Pakistan. The Mobile Base Learning pro-gram uses the cell-phone as a learning tool and hasbeen designed to take advantage of Mobilink’s extensivepenetration amongst the Pakistani population. The ear-lier phases provided great results, reaching out to 1500female students and I look forward to this program hav-ing an even greater impact in the third phase.”

PTCL brings free wi-fi modemfor its broadband customersISLAMABAD: As another first by Pakistan Telecom-munication Company Limited (PTCL), the telecomgiant now brings free wi-fi modems for its valued cus-tomers with every new Broadband connection. This in-credible new offer allows PTCL landline customers toavail free wi-fi modem by ordering a PTCL BroadbandPakistan Internet connection. These free wi-fi modemswill be provided without any monthly recurring chargesto new customers of all packages, excluding 256Kbpsand 1Mbps Student Package. All existing wired modemsubscribers of 1Mbps regular and above will be chargedRs.750 as modem up-gradation charges on opt-in basis.PTCL believes in facilitating its customers every step ofthe way. The ever increasing proliferation of wi-fi en-abled tabs, mobile phones and gadgets makes it essen-tial to have a wi-fi modem for connectivity needs, soPTCL is now offering wi-fi modems to its Broadbandcustomers instead of the regular wired modem.

Emirates carries new friends for childrenKARACHI: Emirates, one of the world’s fastest-growing international airlines, has introduced a col-lection of onboard toys for children which is set tolaunch on June 25, 2012. These young globalistas cannow enjoy the company of new travel companionswhich have two ranges of toys aimed at pre-schooland older children, the travel experience has beenfurther refined by Emirates to enable young passen-gers to have an entertaining, memorable journey.

news

Thursday, 21 June, 2012

03

CAUTIoN: BEARS AHEAD Major Gainers

Company Open High Low Close Change Turnover

UniLever Pak 7260.91 7380.00 7200.00 7300.00 39.09 43Nestle Pakistan Ltd. 4054.43 4249.00 4055.00 4079.57 25.14 32Bata (Pak) Limited 640.00 654.95 640.00 654.95 14.95 3,004Siemens Pakistan 675.00 708.75 675.00 688.06 13.06 3,563Philip Morris Pak. 173.00 181.65 173.00 181.61 8.61 4,422

Major Losers

Mithchells Fruit 299.08 290.00 284.13 285.79 -13.29 1,157Island Textile 227.05 233.73 215.70 217.62 -9.43 140Pak Services 155.06 150.00 150.00 150.00 -5.06 200Ismail Industr 100.00 96.00 95.05 95.07 -4.93 500Shezan Inter. 199.90 199.90 192.00 196.10 -3.80 200

Volume Leaders

Jah.Sidd. Co. 13.46 13.75 13.25 13.32 -0.14 4,696,749D.G.K.Cement 40.34 40.75 39.91 40.03 -0.31 3,450,713Hub Power Company 41.99 42.15 41.65 41.80 -0.19 2,905,704Lotte PakPTA 7.35 7.69 7.20 7.57 0.22 2,618,677Fauji Fert Bin 40.93 41.80 41.02 41.11 0.18 2,389,250

Interbank RatesUS Dollar 94.2350UK Pound 148.1751Japanese Yen 1.1928Euro 119.6219

Dollar EastBuy Sell

US Dollar 94.80 95.50Euro 119.23 120.63Great Britain Pound 147.73 149.44Japanese Yen 1.1774 1.1909Canadian Dollar 91.81 93.38Hong Kong Dollar 12.03 12.20UAE Dirham 25.62 25.89Saudi Riyal 25.12 25.36Australian Dollar 95.36 97.91

g KSE shed 16 points, owing to cautious activity in blue chipstocks. For the record, the speaker opened the honey jar...

Another twistin the tale?g Shares rise as investors

bet Fed will 'Twist' againSINGAPORE

APP/REUTERS

Asian shares rose on Wednesday and the euroclung to most of the previous session's gainsas investors bet that Europe's worsening debtcrisis and faltering global growth will promptmajor central banks to launch a new round ofmonetary stimulus. The U.S. Federal Reserveconcludes a two-day policy meeting later,with expectations high that the central bankwill extend its bond-buying programmedubbed "Operation Twist".MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific sharesoutside Japan rose 0.4 percent, while Japan'sNikkei share average climbed 0.8 percent,though U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightlyweaker open on Wall Street. "The market is waiting for the outcome of theFed meeting, and many expect some kind ofeasing steps," said Yutaka Miura, senior tech-nical analyst at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo."If they're disappointed, U.S. stocks wouldfall, so that risk will likely keep the markethere from pushing the upside too far."The liquidity hit provided by previous dosesof Fed stimulus has lifted riskier assets, andfinancial markets have become highly sensi-tive to expectations of further moves, withglobal equities and commodities tending torise and the dollar coming under pressurewhen action is seen as increasingly likely.U.S. stocks rose around 1 percent on Tuesday,and industrial metals and the euro alsogained ground.

CORPORATE CORNER

KARACHI

STAFF REPORT

PAKISTAN Stocks closed lower amidrecord low trades on cautious activityin blue chip stocks after verdict onspeakers ruling case. This was viewed

by Ahsan Mehanti, Director at Arif Habib In-vestments Limited. The Karachi Stock Ex-change (KSE) 100-share index declined 15.81points or 0.12 percent to close at 13,667.18points as compared to 13,682.99 points of theprevious session. The KSE 30-share index shed17.07 points to close at 11,835.43 points ascompared with 11,852.50 points.

The market turnover was down to 47.417million shares after opening at 75.992 millionshares. The overall market capitalization de-clined 0.02 percent and traded Rs 3.488 tril-lion as against Rs 3.492 trillion. Losersoutnumbered gainers 117 to 144, while 86stocks were unchanged. Mehanti added thatthe investor awaited announcements regard-ing nomination of new PM and KSE 100 indextraded in narrow range despite recovery inglobal stocks and commodities. The KMI 30-share was down by 37.95 points to close at

23,667.83 points from its opening at23,705.78 points. The KSE all-share indexclosed with a loss of 12.90 points to 9,625.90points as against 9,638.80 points.

Jahangir Siddiqui Company was the vol-ume leader in the share market with 4.696 mil-lion shares as it closed at Rs 13.32 after openingat Rs 13.46. D.G.K Cement traded 3.450 millionshares as it closed at Rs 40.03 after opening Rs40.34. Hub Power Company traded 2.905 mil-lion shares as it closed at Rs 41.80 from itsopening at Rs 41.99. Lotte Pakistan PTA traded2.618 million shares and closed at Rs 7.57 asagainst its opening at Rs 7.35. Fauji FertilizersBin traded 2.389 million shares as it closed atRs 41.11 as compared to its opening at Rs 40.93.He said that the Gas shortage for fertilizer sec-tor, power crises for industrial sector and circu-lar debt issues in energy sector played a catalystrole in bearish sentiments at KSE.

On the future market, the turnover down byover 4 million to 4.973 million against 8.385million shares of Tuesday. The Unilever Pak-istan XD and Nestle Pakistan Limited, up Rs39.09 and Rs 25.14, led highest price gainerswhile, Mithchells Fruit and Island Textile downRs 13.29 and Rs 9.43 respectively, led the losers.

Bears breed onparanoid investors

TCP imports80,000 tonne urea

ISLAMABAD

ONLINE

At least two consignments of Urea, havingvolume around 80 thousands Ton arrived atPakistan’s seaports on Tuesday. The TradingCorporation of Pakistan (TCP) has importedthese consignments to bridge the supply-de-mand gap in the domestic market of Pakistanwhile the consignments arrived at Gwadarand Karachi. Meanwhile, the TCP is export-ing the urea to the country after receiving a$100 million credit facility extended by theSaudi Fund for Development as the Federalcabinet of Pakistan directed the TCP to im-port .3 million ton urea into Pakistan.

Moody’s cook TurkeyANKARA

APP/AFP

Moody's on Wednesday hiked Turkey's creditrating by one notch from 'Ba2' to 'Ba1' with apositive outlook on improved government fi-nances and ability to withstand economicshocks. It said the main reason for upgradewas "the significant improvement in Turkey'spublic finances and the resulting increasedshock-absorption capacity of the government'sbalance sheet". Moody's said Turkey's govern-ment had also taken steps that could help ad-dress the country's large current accountdeficit "which is the largest credit risk facingthe country". The Ba1 rating leaves Turkey justbelow investment grade, which Moody's saidit would likely receive if the country becomesmore resilient to balance-of-payments shocks.

No energy, no tractorsISLAMABAD

ONLINE

The deteriorating energy crisis has signifi-cantly dropped the local tractor production asin the first nine months (July-March) of cur-rent financial year 2011-12 tractors productiondeclined to 27,131 unites against 70,855 dur-ing 2010-11. According to an official, there arequality concerns with regard to locally manu-factured machinery while high price for im-ported ones has restricted its use and for thispurpose concerted efforts would be required,from both public as well privet sector, to popu-larize the agricultural machinery in Pakistan.

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