Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving...

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Transcript of Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving...

Page 1: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally
Page 2: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Profitable Patterns found in the Major Moving Averages

Page 3: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

M.A.P. MOVING AVERAGE PATTERNS

Page 4: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

MAJOR MOVING AVERAGE RULES

1. There are four major moving averages: 50, 200, 500, 1000.

2. Moving averages act as magnets for price.

3. First contacts with long term moving averages are usually repulsed.

4. Second and third attempts at crossing major moving averages are usually successful.

5. Prices that break through a major moving average usually come back and retest that average.

6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside it becomes support for positive trends.

7. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the downside it becomes resistance for negative trends.

8. Stocks in sideways trends often bounce between major averages.

9. Moving averages and trend-lines often complement each other.

10. Major moving averages are fractal, for any time period.

11. Major market price gaps are around the major averages.

12. The safest place to buy is on positive moves off of major moving averages.

13 The safest shorts are on negative moves off of major averages.

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Page 5: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

M.A.P. Break Down Pattern for the 20 and 50 SMA

20 Sma

50 SMA First 50 SMA Test

Second SMA Test and Failure

“Blue Ice Hole Failure”of 50 SMA

20 SMA Test and Failure

Page 6: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally
Page 7: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

2004

Page 8: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

QQQQ

TARGET 200 SMA

Page 9: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

QQQQ, DAILY, 2000

50 SMA

200 SMA

Page 10: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

DJ-30

500 SMA

2000

Page 11: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

1987 Crash

1000 SMA

2 DAY CHART

DJ-30

Page 12: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

1973

DJ-30

Page 13: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

1956

DJ-30

Page 14: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

1946

DJ-30

Page 15: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

1929

DJ-30

Page 16: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

1929

2 day chart

DJ-30

Page 17: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

6 day chart

1929--1933

Page 18: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

1920

DJ-30

Page 19: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally
Page 20: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

TODAY'S MARKET Thursday's market move was a continuation of Wednesday's up move and our technical call. The DJ closed exactly at the 500 SMA with today's up side resistance at the daily 50 SMA at 112,683. A double failure of the DJ at the daily SMA would project the next market move back down below this weeks lows and April's lows. QQQQ made a new high for the month and last 3 months. Q's have held the weekly 50 SMA over the past several weeks. QQQQ shows 51.00 as our next resistance.

Oil has finally put un a strong rally for THE WAVE 2 retest the last highs move. Failure to make new oil highs will give good short signals and long DUG signals. On the other hand a new high will also be a top with strong negative divergence.

Page 21: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

DJ-30

June 6, 2008

50 SMA

500 SMA

200 SMA

WEEKLY 50 SMA

Page 22: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally
Page 23: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

DJ-30, 1 MIN

Page 24: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

DJ-30, 30 MIN CHART

Page 25: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

DJ-30, 60 MIN CHART

Page 26: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

DJ-30, 15 MIN CHART

Page 27: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

DJ-30, 1 MIN CHART

50 SMA

200 SMA

500 SMA

Page 28: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

QQQQ, 1 MIN. CHART

50 SMA

200 SMA

500 SMA

Page 29: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

LONDON FTSE

TARGET 200 SMA

Page 30: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

©

Page 31: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally
Page 32: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Break Down Pattern for the 20 and 50 SMA

20 SMA

50 SMA First 50 SMA Test

Second SMA Test and Failure

“Blue Ice Hole Failure”of 50 SMA

20 SMA Test and Failure

Page 33: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

50 SMA

20 SMA

200 SMA

QQQ

1

2

3

Page 34: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

[]AMR WEEKLY

50 SMA

Page 35: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

FDX DAILY

50 SMA200 SMA

500 SMA

Page 36: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

FDX MONTHLY

50 SMA

Page 37: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Break Down Pattern for the 20 and 50 SMA

20 SMA

50 SMA First 50 SMA Test

Second SMA Test and Failure

Failure”of 20 SMA

20 SMA Test and Failure

Page 38: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

YHOO

50 SMA

20 SMA

1

2

3

0

Page 39: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Double “Blue Ice Hole Failure” of 50 SMA

20 SMA

50 SMA

First 50 SMA Test

Second SMA Test and Failure

“ Double Blue Ice Hole Failure”of 50 SMA

20 SMA Test and Failure

80 SMA

Page 40: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

50 SMA

DOUBLE FAILURE

500 SMA

200 SMA

20 SMASCH

Page 41: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Break Down Pattern for the 50 SMA

50 SMA

First 50 SMA Test

Second SMA Test and Failure

“Blue Ice Hole Failure”of 50 SMA

Double Top Test and Failure

20 SMA

Page 42: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

50SMA

20SMA

BADOUBLE TOP

1

3

2

Page 43: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally
Page 44: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

FAILING THE “BLUE ICE” 50 SMA

SCH

1

2

3

Page 45: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Dragging the 50 Sma Failure Pattern

20 SMA

50 SMA First 50 SMA Test

Multiple 50 SMA Test and Failure New Lows

Page 46: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

50 Sma

200 SMA

50 SMA

500 SMA

SBC

Page 47: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally
Page 48: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Breakout Pattern for the 50 SMA with a 20 SMA test

20 SMA

Second 50 SMA test and penetration

First 50 SMA test and failure

Re-test of 20 SMA support

Breakout from 50 SMA

support

50 SMA

50 SMA

20 SMA

20 SMA breakout

Page 49: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

50 SMA

200 SMA

20 Sma20 SMA

SBC

1

2

3

Page 50: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Breakout Pattern for the 50 SMA

20 SMA

Second 50 SMA test and penetration

First 50 SMA test and failure

Re-test of 50 SMA support

Breakout from 50 SMA

support

50 SMA

50 SMA

20 SMA

20 SMA test and failure

Page 51: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

200 SMA

50 SMA

500 SMA

Test the 50 SMA

1

2

3

Page 52: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

CSX DAILY

50 SMA

Page 53: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Breakout Pattern for the 50 SMA Double test

20 SMA

Second 50 SMA test and penetration

First 50 SMA test and failure

Re-test of 50 SMA support

Breakout from 50 SMA

support

50 SMA

20 SMA

20 SMA test and failure

2nd Re-test of 50 SMA support

Page 54: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

200 SMA

50 SMA

50 SMA double

test

DOUBLE TEST 50 SMA

IBM

Page 55: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

GMT WEEKLY

500 SMA

50 SMA

200 SMA

Page 56: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

GOLD 2 DAY

1000 SMA

50 SMA

200 SMA

Page 57: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

Dragging the 50 SMA Breakout Pattern

20 SMA

50 SMA

First 50 SMA Test

Multiple 50 SMA Test and Breakout

New Highs

Page 58: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

GTW

DRAGING THE 50 SMA

1

2

3

Page 59: Profitable Patterns - Meetupfiles.meetup.com/81154/David Elliot MIT MAP.1.2.pdf · 6. Once a moving average has been penetrated to the upside ... Oil has finally put un a strong rally

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