Profiles and Trends of the Appalachian Highlands Dr. Jon ... · 9/10/2019 · Profiles and Trends...

Profiles and Trends of the Appalachian HighlandsDr. Jon Smith and Dr. Brian Noland

East Tennessee State UniversitySeptember 10, 2019

• Foundational constructs of economic development

• Data profile of the region

• The importance of data, research, and strategic planning

Presentation Overview

• In the Knowledge Economy, education, technology, and learning are the keys to sustainable economic growth, and the foundation of such growth is higher education.

• In order to remain competitive, states must work to develop policies that incorporate human, intellectual, and financial capital.

• Predicated on human capital theory

Public and private benefits from human capital investments.

Based on the notion that education increases the human capital stock of individuals, improves their productivity, leads to increases in economic productivity, and contributes to the general betterment of society. (Denison 1983; Walberg and Zhang 1998).

The advancement of educational attainment has become an indispensable variable in policy efforts to make improvements of society as a whole.

The Knowledge Economy and Human Capital Theory

AK

AR

DE

GA

HIIL

IN IAKS

LAME

MDMA

MTNE

NV NJ

NY

NC ND

OHOK

ORPARI

SCSD

VT

VA

WA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MIMN

MS

MONH

NMTN

TX

UTWV

WI

WY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

Personal Income

Per Capita

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with Bachelor’s Degrees

1980

Correlation = 0.64

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census’ and American Community Survey

Educational Attainment and Income


Educational Attainment and Income 1990

AK

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

IN IAKS

LA

ME

MD MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA RI

SC SD

VT

VAWA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UTWV

WIWY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

1990

Personal Income

Per Capita


Correlation = 0.76



AK

AR

DE

GA HI

IL

INIA

KS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

OR

PA RI

SC

SD

VT

VAWA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

UT

WV

WIWY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

2000

Personal Income

Per Capita


Correlation = 0.80



AK

AZ

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

IN IAKS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC NDOH

OK

OR

PA RI

SC

SD VT

VA

WAUS

AL

CACO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UTWV

WI

WY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2015

Personal Income

Per Capita


Correlation = 0.83

SOURCE: SREB Factbook (2019)

Annual Salaries of Adults by Educational Level(25 or older 2017)

Unemployment Rate by Education Level

1.5%

1.5%

2.2%

2.5%

3.4%

4.0%

4.6%

6.5%

3.6%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

Doctoral degree

Professional degree

Master's degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school diploma, no college

Less than a high school diploma

Total

2017 Unemployment rate

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

SOURCE: SREB Factbook (2019)

Projected Increases in Employment by Education Required (2016 to 2026)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2017 % Change

United States 20.3% 23.0% 24.4% 27.2% 32.0% 11.7%SREB States 18.6% 19.9% 22.4% 23.8% 29.6% 11.0%

Alabama 15.7% 17.3% 19.0% 21.4% 25.5% 9.8%Arkansas 13.3% 14.2% 16.7% 18.9% 23.4% 10.1%Delaware 21.4% 22.9% 25.0% 27.6% 31.5% 10.1%Florida 18.3% 22.1% 22.3% 25.8% 29.7% 11.4%Georgia 19.6% 22.7% 24.3% 27.1% 30.9% 11.3%Kentucky 13.6% 19.3% 17.1% 19.3% 24.0% 10.4%Louisiana 16.1% 20.1% 18.7% 20.6% 23.8% 7.7%Maryland 26.5% 26.4% 31.4% 34.5% 39.7% 13.2%Mississippi 14.7% 17.6% 16.9% 18.7% 21.9% 7.2%North Carolina 17.4% 20.6% 22.5% 25.1% 31.3% 13.9%Oklahoma 17.8% 19.1% 20.3% 22.4% 25.5% 7.7%South Carolina 16.6% 18.2% 20.4% 23.0% 28.0% 11.4%Tennessee 16.0% 17.8% 19.6% 21.8% 27.3% 11.3%Texas 20.3% 22.0% 23.2% 25.1% 29.6% 9.3%Virginia 24.5% 26.0% 29.5% 33.2% 38.7% 14.2%West Virginia 12.3% 12.7% 14.8% 16.9% 20.2% 7.9%

Percentage of Population 25 or Older with a Bachelor's Degree (Full Census and American Community Survey)

Educational Attainment - SREB States

Sheet1

Percentage of Population 25 or Older with a

Bachelor's Degree (Full Census and American Community Survey)

194019501960197019801990199519992000200220052017% Change

United States4.6%6.0%7.7%10.7%16.2%20.3%23.0%25.2%24.4%24.4%27.2%32.0%11.7%

SREB States3.8%5.1%6.9%9.7%14.9%18.6%19.9%21.7%22.4%22.8%23.8%29.6%11.0%

Alabama2.9%3.7%5.7%7.8%12.2%15.7%17.3%21.8%19.0%20.6%21.4%25.5%9.8%

Arkansas2.3%3.2%4.8%6.7%10.8%13.3%14.2%17.3%16.7%19.7%18.9%23.4%10.1%

Delaware5.3%7.5%10.0%NANA21.4%22.9%24.0%25.0%25.1%27.6%31.5%10.1%

Florida5.0%6.5%7.8%10.3%14.9%18.3%22.1%21.6%22.3%24.1%25.8%29.7%11.4%

Georgia3.3%4.6%6.2%9.2%14.6%19.6%22.7%21.5%24.3%24.4%27.1%30.9%11.3%

Kentucky3.0%3.9%4.9%7.2%11.1%13.6%19.3%19.8%17.1%18.8%19.3%24.0%10.4%

Louisiana3.5%4.8%6.7%9.0%14.5%16.1%20.1%20.7%18.7%20.4%20.6%23.8%7.7%

Maryland4.9%7.2%9.3%13.9%20.4%26.5%26.4%34.7%31.4%33.1%34.5%39.7%13.2%

Mississippi3.1%3.9%5.6%8.1%12.3%14.7%17.6%19.2%16.9%17.7%18.7%21.9%7.2%

North Carolina4.1%5.1%6.3%8.5%13.2%17.4%20.6%23.9%22.5%23.4%25.1%31.3%13.9%

Oklahoma4.8%6.3%7.9%10.0%15.1%17.8%19.1%23.7%20.3%20.7%22.4%25.5%7.7%

South Carolina4.7%5.5%6.9%9.0%13.4%16.6%18.2%20.9%20.4%22.7%23.0%28.0%11.4%

Tennessee3.1%4.1%5.5%7.9%12.6%16.0%17.8%17.7%19.6%21.0%21.8%27.3%11.3%

Texas4.4%6.2%8.0%10.9%16.9%20.3%22.0%24.4%23.2%24.5%25.1%29.6%9.3%

Virginia4.5%6.5%8.4%12.3%19.1%24.5%26.0%31.6%29.5%31.7%33.2%38.7%14.2%

West Virginia3.4%4.4%5.2%6.8%10.4%12.3%12.7%17.9%14.8%16.1%16.9%20.2%7.9%

Sheet2

Sheet3

Percent of Adult Population with a High School Degree

Red = Most critical 300 counties

Green = Least critical 300 counties

Average for TN: 87.8%

Average for US: 88.0%

Percent of Working Age Adult Population with an Associate Degree or Higher





Percent of Adult Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher





Median Household Income



Average for TN: $55,240

Average for US: $61,372

State Public Health Rankings

Source: United Health Foundation.

Opioids Prescribed Per Capita (2015)

Source: Tennessee Department of Mental Health & Substance Abuse Services

Source: Tennessee Department of Mental Health & Substance Abuse Services

The Story of Addiction in Tennessee

Selected Data – TN Regional Profile

County Adult SmokingAdult

Obesity%

Uninsurred% Children in Poverty

Median Household

Income

Adults with HS +

Adults w/ BA +

Population Projections (2012-26)

State Avg - Tennessee 22 33 11 21 $51,319 88.7 27.6 8.2Carter 24 36 11 29 $39,725 86.1 16.5 -3.3Greene 22 36 11 25 $40,145 86.6 15.7 2.8Hancock 26 31 12 45 $29,689 80.6 8.7 -4.9Hawkins 21 33 11 26 $41,397 86 12.9 -0.7Johnson 24 31 12 33 $36,331 80.6 11.7 -0.5Sullivan 22 33 10 24 $54,224 88.7 23.4 -0.7Unicoi 22 34 13 25 $41,188 87.8 14.5 0.4Washington 21 30 10 19 $43,194 91.8 34.3 8

For almost every county across the region, performance across key indicators yields outcomes

below state and national averages.

Sheet1

CountyAdult SmokingAdult Obesity% Uninsurred% Children in PovertyMedian Household IncomeAdults with HS +Adults w/ BA +Rate of Population Growth (2012-16)Population Projections (2012-26)

State Avg - Tennessee22331121$51,31988.727.63.18.2

Carter24361129$39,72586.116.5-1.4-3.3

Greene22361125$40,14586.615.7-0.12.8

Hancock26311245$29,68980.68.7-1.5-4.9

Hawkins21331126$41,3978612.90-0.7

Johnson24311233$36,33180.611.7-2-0.5

Sullivan22331024$54,22488.723.40.1-0.7

Unicoi22341325$41,18887.814.5-2.80.4

Washington21301019$43,19491.834.328

Real Gross Domestic Product Growth

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

MSA REAL GDP

Johnson City Kingsport Asheville Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville

Real GDP Growth – MSA Comparisons

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

MSA REAL GDP

Johnson City Kingsport Asheville

Chattanooga Knoxville-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

US

Johnson City

Kingsport

Asheville

Chattanooga

Knoxville

Nashville

16.09%

4.01%

-6.29%

22.52%

11.48%

12.92%

41.17%

% in MSA Total Real GRP2010 to 2017

Real GDP Growth – MSA Comparisons


-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

US

Johnson City

Kingsport

Asheville

Chattanooga

Knoxville

Nashville

18.08%

2.43%

-5.42%

14.25%

6.00%

7.98%

24.31%

% Change in MSA Real GDP Per Capita2010 to 2017

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

MSA REAL GDP PER CAPITA


Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville

Real GDP Growth Per Capita – MSA Comparisons


Civilian Employment Level

-100000

100000

300000

500000

700000

900000

1100000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018


Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

US

Johnson City

Kingsport

Asheville

Chattanooga

Knoxville

Nashville

12.01%

2.04%0.43%

18.91%

10.81%

7.48%

26.44%

% Change in MSA Civilian Employment2010 to 2018

Civilian Employment – MSA Comparisons

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Percent Change in County Employment2010 to 2018

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPS Data

For almost every county within the region, there was flat to declining job growth across industry sectors for the decade.

-100000

100000

300000

500000

700000

900000

1100000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018


Chattanooga Knoxville Nashville -7.00%

-2.00%

3.00%

8.00%

13.00%

18.00%

US

John

son

City

King

spor

t

Ashe

ville

Chat

tano

oga

Knox

ville

Nas

hvill

e

5.32%

-4.10%-5.26%

11.69%

4.73%

1.67%

18.76%

% Change in MSA Civilian Labor Force2010 to 2018

Civilian Workforce – MSA Comparisons

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Local Unemployment Statistics

Percent Change in County Labor Force2010 to 2018

Almost every county within the region experienced flat to declining labor force participation rates throughout this decade.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPS Data

Net Migration by Age Signature – Tennessee

Net Migration by Age Signature – Nashville MSA

De

Net Migration by Age Signature –Johnson City MSA

Migration by Age Signature: Kingsport-Bristol MSA

Asheville MSA (4 Counties)

YearStarting

populationEnding

populationTotal

ChangePercent change

Natural increase Net migration

2000 - 2008 370,615 417,457 46,842 12.64% 2,016 44,8262008 - 2017 417,457 456,145 38,688 9.27% -1,554 40,776

Johnson City MSA (3 Counties)

YearStarting

populationEnding

populationTotal



2000 - 2008 181,944 196,242 14298 7.86% 242 14,0562008 - 2017 196,242 202,053 5811 2.96% -1,263 8,017

Kingsport MSA (5 Counties)

YearStarting

populationEnding

populationTotal



2000 - 2008 298,534 308,069 9,535 3.19% -1,979 11,5142008 - 2017 308,069 306,659 -1,410 -0.46% -6,258 5,204

Knoxville MSA (9 Counties)

YearStarting

populationEnding

populationTotal



2000 - 2008 679,999 753,517 73,518 10.81% 13,682 59,8362008 - 2017 753,517 804,626 51,109 6.78% 9,242 42,264

37.0%

36.8%36.5%

36.3%36.1% 36.0%

35.9%

35.6% 35.7%

40.7%

39.7%39.4%

39.1%

39.1%39.0%

38.7%38.5%

38.2%

37.1%

36.2%

35.8%

35.3%

35.1%

34.8%34.7%

34.4% 34.3%

41.0%

40.4%

40.1%

39.8%

38.9%38.7%

38.5%

38.4%

38.3%

34.0%

35.0%

36.0%

37.0%

38.0%

39.0%

40.0%

41.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Asheville Johnson City Kingsport Knoxville

MSA Age Distribution (Ages 15 to 44)

17.9%17.9%

18.2%

18.6%

18.9%

19.4%

19.9%

20.5%

20.8%

15.4%

15.7%15.9%

16.3%

16.7%

17.1%

17.6%

18.1%

18.4%

16.9%

17.3%

17.8%

18.2%

18.6%

19.0%

19.5%

20.0%

20.3%

14.0%

14.2%14.5%

14.8%

15.5%

15.9%

16.4%

16.9%

17.2%

14.0%

15.0%

16.0%

17.0%

18.0%

19.0%

20.0%

21.0%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Asheville Johnson City Kingsport Knoxville

MSA Age Distribution – 65 and Older

Commercial Branch Bank and Savings Institutions Deposits

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

Tennessee

Asheville

Johnson City

Kingsport

Chattanooga

Knoxville

Nashville

42.08%

49.48%

39.26%

27.62%

46.57% 45.69%

77.35%

47.83%

19.79%

7.58%1.55%

27.49%

38.39%

87.39%

2001-2008 2008-2018

% Changes in Nominal Dollar Deposits of All FDIC-Insured Institutions

(Commercial Banks, Savings Institutions, Branches of Foreign Banks)

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Tennessee

Asheville

Johnson City

Kingsport

Chattanooga

Knoxville

Nashville

16.87%

22.95%

14.55%

4.97%

20.56% 19.84%

45.88%

26.75%

2.71%-7.76% -12.93%

9.31%

18.66%

60.67%

2001 to 2008 2008 to 2018

Percent Changes in Real Dollar Deposits of All FDIC-Insured Institutions

(Commercial Banks, Savings Institutions, Branches of Foreign Banks)

Issues for Consideration• Strategic Planning:

What are the region’s short and long-term goals to address its demographic, economic, and educational issues?

Do the region’s policies, practices, and incentives align with these goals? Are the goals achievable and measurable?

Are institutions held accountable when they do not meet these goals? Are they provided incentives when they do meet these goals?

• State and Local Issues: What is the state and region’s economic forecast? Is the current regional ECD infrastructure able to present a consistent

advocacy voice to federal, state, and other constituencies? How effective is the region in realizing grant and special project

funding to support regional economic, education, and health objectives? Is the region coordinated or disjointed in its approach to industry

recruitment?

Slide Number 1Presentation OverviewSlide Number 3Educational Attainment and IncomeEducational Attainment and Income 1990Educational Attainment and Income 2000Educational Attainment and Income 2015Annual Salaries of Adults by Educational Level� (25 or older 2017) Slide Number 9Projected Increases in Employment by Education Required (2016 to 2026)Slide Number 11Percent of Adult Population with a �High School Degree Percent of Working Age Adult Population with an Associate Degree or Higher Percent of Adult Population with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher Median Household Income Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Slide Number 34Slide Number 35Slide Number 36Commercial Branch Bank and �Savings Institutions DepositsSlide Number 38Slide Number 39Slide Number 40

Profiles and Trends of the Appalachian Highlands Dr. Jon ... · 9/10/2019 · Profiles and Trends...

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