Professor Paul Bates
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Transcript of Professor Paul Bates
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Professor Paul Bates
SWOT and hydrodynamic modelling
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2 Flooding as a global problem
• According to UNESCO in 2004
floods caused …..– ~7k deaths
• Also ~225k deaths due to Asian tsunami, effectively a coastal plain flood
– affected ~116M people– 7.5Bn USD of damages
• Flooding is the major natural
hazard worldwide – 107 out of 305 UNESCO-listed
natural disasters in 2004 were floods
– Always the largest category each year
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3 Flood dynamics
• Large low amplitude waves– 1-1000km in length– <1 hour to 6 months duration– Low slope 1-100cm km-1
– Gradually varied flow– Above bankfull stage waves
spread in 2D over floodplains– Complex shallow water
inundation dynamics– Major control on wetland
biogeochemistry and carbon cycling
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4 Hydrodynamic models
• Principal tool for assessing flood risk
• Provide dynamic predictions of water depth and velocity– Horizontal scales of ~1-1000 m– Temporal scales of ~1-60 s over events lasting up to 1
year– Domain sizes of ~1- 100,000 km2
– Can be 1, 2 or 3 dimensional (but consensus that floodplain inundation is at least a 2D process)
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5 Model data needs
• Boundary conditions– Discharge and stage at river
gauging stations
• Topography– Ideally LiDAR (<10m spatial
resolution, <10cm rmse vertical accuracy), but can also use SRTM for large rivers
• Calibration/validation data– Measurements of water height
and flood extent– Used to calibrate model friction
parameters
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6 Current measurements of surface water dynamics
• Limited to….– Point gauging stations
– Very small numbers of consistent inundation images
– Satellite altimetery (=gauges)
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7 Carlisle, UK – 10m model vs. ground survey
RMSE on water depth = 0.32 m
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8 Upton on Severn, UK – 18m model vs Airborne SAR
= correct= over-prediction= under-prediction= predicted as
flooded, no ASAR coverage
Model fit = 89%
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9 Data limitations to modelling
• When we have distributed cal/val data we can do great
modelling
• But …..– Existing gauges only test bulk flow routing
• Allows modellers to ‘get away with’ 1D codes such as HEC-RAS which are known to miss important aspects of flood physics
– We only have data to test 2D model performance at ~10-15 sites globally
– Often only 1 flood extent image per event• Doesn’t allow us to test model dynamics
– Lack of sufficient cal/val data means that many flood models suffer from high uncertainty
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10 What data do we want?
• Must have ….– Over the mission lifetime generate data to calibrate 2D models at a ‘large’ number
of sites• Need flood extent with pixel sizes of ~100m or less and water elevations to at least
decimeter level accuracy• ‘Large’ here means data for O(1-2) more river reaches than we currently have• Will make 2D modelling routine globally
– For a more limited number of sites we need multiple synoptic images of flood extent and grids of water elevation through events
• Will allow model dynamic performance to be tested effectively for the first time and lead to the development of better modelling tools
• Would be nice– Discharge measurements in ungauged rivers accurate to ±25%– Better global floodplain terrain data
• SRTM is all we have, but this has ~5m scale vertical noise at 3 arc-second resolution• Ideally need a global floodplain DEM with decimeter scale vertical errors
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11 Will SWOT do this?
YES!– Don’t need to image all floods, just
a sufficient number– Dealing with whole river reaches
(10-1000km) so exact orbit repeat is not necessary to image a single flood multiple times
– Pixel size and water height/slope accuracy within specification
– Discharge will be routinely measured
– Better floodplain terrain data may be a fantastic side product of the mission
• Could be an important secondary science goal, but may incur some processing costs Credit: Karen Wiedman
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12 Hydrodynamic modelling – key message
• Routine application of hydrodynamic models appropriate to simulating floodplain inundation is currently prevented by a lack of observed 2D flood extent and water height data that can be used to calibrate such schemes. SWOT will provide this data and allow a step change in our ability to model floods.