Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat - iiasa.ac.at fileProfessor Dr. Pavel Kabat IIASA Director General and...
Transcript of Professor Dr. Pavel Kabat - iiasa.ac.at fileProfessor Dr. Pavel Kabat IIASA Director General and...
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Hadera EnergyTech Conference, Tel Aviv, April 2016
Professor Dr. Pavel KabatIIASA Director General and Chief Executive Officer
Long-term Strategic Energy Solutions
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CONTENTS
• Energy in the long-term• An integrated approach to meet multiple energy
challenges• How technology can help• What investments are needed for a sustainable
energy system• Future collaboration
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Energy in the long-term
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Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution
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An integrated approach to meet multiple energy
challenges
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Energy Access
Energy Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air PollutionHealth Impacts
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway
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0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total G
lobal Policy Co
sts (20
10‐2030)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm
3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200BaselineGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Source: Fricko et al, 2014
Global Water WithdrawalsA Pathway with Full Portfolio
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Efficient Urban Energy Systems
11Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012
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How technology can help
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time
costperformance
Benz Motorwagen (1885)
Ford Model T (1914)
Steam-powered Cugnot (1769)
transformational
disruptive
existing technology
We seek technologies that lead to
fundamentally new learning curves
Source: Steve Chu, 2013
Incremental & Disruptive Technologies
cumulative output - experience
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Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
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What investments are needed for a sustainable
energy system
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Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
2050
Today(941bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(2558 bill.)
2005-2010
Investment Portfolios World
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
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Efficiency(marginal)
OilGas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
CCS Other conversion
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
2050
Today(941bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(2558 bill.)
2005-2010
Investment Portfolios World
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
GEA-Efficiency(2849 bill.)
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Future collaboration
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IIASA
An international research institute that conducts multidisciplinary research to help policymakers find long-term solutions to global and regional challenges facing
countries
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Israel Energy Outlook
Possible project:System analysis of plausible futures for the Israeli energy sector within the broader regional and global context
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THANK YOU
FURTHER INFORMATION:www.iiasa.ac.at