Professional Management and

Integrated Governance Peijun Shi1,2,3, Ming Wang1,3,Jing'ai Wang1.4 ,

Qian Ye1,3 ,Saini Yang1,3, Yanli Lv1,3

1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University;2.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Beijing Normal University; 3.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University;

4. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University

Beijing Normal University ,Beijing, Chinaspj@bnu.edu.cn

Side Events: Disaster Risk Reduction: Government to Governance

ContentsContentsComplexity of Disaster SystemIntegrated Disaster Risk Governance

Complexity of Disaster SystemIntegrated Disaster Risk Governance

ContentsContents

2004 Indian Ocean earthquake - tsunami (275,000 dead)

2005 U.S. Hurricane Katrina (1300 death)

Myanmar typhoon disaster in 2008 (70,000 deaths)

Japan's earthquake and tsunami disaster in 2011 (15,000 deaths)

Response to environmental risks caused global changes is the major issue facing the sustainable development.Response to environmental risks caused global changes is the major issue facing the sustainable development.

Snow and ice storms in south China in 2008

Mississippi River floods in the United States in 2011 Drought disasters in south China in 2011

Examples of major disasters related to climate (precipitation and temperature)

Hurricane Katrina disaster in the United States in 2005

6

Disaster System (DS)

DS=E∩H∩S DS=E∩H∩S

E

H

S

DsE

• Environments (E)• Hazards (H)• Socio-economic system

(S)

• Environments (E)• Hazards (H)• Socio-economic system

(S)

(P. Shi, 1991)

Socio-Ecological System and Disaster System Complexity

complexity

multiple hazards

disaster compounddisaster chain

8

Multi -hazards

FloodDroughtWindstormHailDust StormTyphoonLow Temperature and FreezeSnowEarthquakeLandslideDebris Flow

Disaster-chain Japan 311 Earthquake and tsunami co-triggered nuclear crisis in

2011

Explosion of nuclear power

plantTsunami Earthquake

Collapse

Landside

Damage to terrestrial system

Structural damage

Housing collapse

Damage to road & bridge

Damage to reservoir &

dam

Nuclear substance leakage

Damage to regional & global ocean ecological

system

Decrease of marine bio resources

Damage to marine

aquaculture

Declined ocean water quality

Impact on power supply

Damage to industrial production system

Damage to coastal embankment

Damage to production system

Damage to lifeline system

Impact on local economy and world economy

Human casualty

Housing collapse

Social panic

Damage to terrestrial system

Vegetation contamination

Atmospheric pollution

Land contamination

Water contamination

Animal variation

Impact on human health

Social instability

Damage to social service system

Damage to agricultural ecological

system

Damage to supply chains system

Source: Peijun Shi et al., 2011

Earthquake - Tsunami Disaster Chain of Japan in 2011

China 5·12 Earthquake Disaster Chain of Wenchuan, in 2008

Heavy rain

Collapse Landslide

Earthquake

Quake-lakeDebris flow

Earthquake Disaster Chain of Wenchuan, China in 2008

Source: Peijun Shi et al., 2009

Hazards(Disasters) compound The large-scale sleet&snow disaster in South of

China （ 2008 ）

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008年

最大

连续

冰冻

日数

（天

）

冰冻日数 常年值

Multi-hazard, Disaster-chain, Hazards(Disasters) compound and LSD

Multi-hazard, Disaster-chain, Hazards(Disasters) compound are often used in various references of disaster studies, but there is still different understanding about their essential difference (Shi et al., 2010a).

The existence of multi-hazards is not a necessary condition for the formation of a LSD; only when the regional disaster prevention capacity is extremely low will it be possible to trigger a LSD.

Disaster-chain, Hazards(Disasters) compound triggered by a severe or enormous disaster event are generally the reason for the huge losses of LSD.

Complexity of Disaster SystemIntegrated Disaster Risk Governance

ContentsContents

The Nation-wide Paradigm of Integrated LSD RiskGovernance in China (Top-down)

Consilience between Disaster Risk Reduction and Development

Sustainability

Circular Economy

Saving Resources

EnvironmentFriendship

risk transfer

Green Economy

Year's Loss Ratio and Death population rate Caused by Natural

Disaster in China

Annual economic loss to GDP ratio (expressed as percentage of GDP) and annual death rate (number of deaths per million people) caused by natural disasters in China, 1990-2011 (excluding the Wenchuan earthquake event, 2008). Based on data from Fang et. al.

Disaster Risk Maps of CHINA

Covers of the three atlases of natural disaster risk in China. Source: The People’s Insurance Company of China, 1992; Shi, 2003 and 2011.

Establishing and Improving the Disaster System （ D S ）

Warning Information Integration Platform

Monitoring.Warning andForecasting

System

Prepareness and Manage System

Material Storage and Security

System

DS Warning Information Integration

Platform

Fam

ily

Com

munity

Institu

tes

Govern

ments

Local

RegionalGlobal

Place

Integration

Coordination

Cooperation

Construction

Communication

mitigation

resil

ence

ad

ap

tatio

n

Government: Development and Disaster Reduction (Governance)

Community: Safety Construction (Legislation)

Institute: Risk Transformation (Mechanism)

Family: Risk Awareness (Education)

Government: Development and Disaster Reduction (Governance)

Community: Safety Construction (Legislation)

Institute: Risk Transformation (Mechanism)

Family: Risk Awareness (Education)

Forming integrated DS governance paradigm

Consilience between Structure and Function Optimization

Consilience Model for Integrated DS Governance

Consilience

resilience

vulnerabilityadaptation

Pol i ti cs

Geography

Society

Economy

Catastrophe

Global Network of Large-Scale Disaster Impact

Improving mitigation to response ER

we propose to establish “global integrated disaster risk governance paradigm” under the development strategy for “living with global climate diversity .

Global Integrated Disaster Risk Governance Paradigm under Development Strategy for Living

with Global Climate Diversity

For this reason, humans must establish corresponding defensive measures based on the integrated characteristics of CCR, improving mitigation to response ER, improving resilence to response FR and improving adaptation to response TR. Only by improving mitigation, resilience and adaptation of human beings gradually to response climate change and form cohesion of integrated CCR governance, can we promote sustainability comprehensively from local, regional to global under the background of climate change.

Integrated Disaster Risk Governance of Climate Change

Key Points A The nature of disaster system shows the characteristics of

deep complexity. The human society as a whole should fully address the deep complexity and establish governance paradigms for better and more effective disaster risk reduction. The parameters in a disaster system usually experience the slow onset change, the rapid sudden change or the fluctuation in between, and these changes can often be observed as multiple hazards, disaster chain or disaster compound

Key Points B As a traditional fashion, based on the regional variation of

hazards, exposures and environments that form the essential of a disaster system, government emphasizes the various professional structure measures including safety construction, disaster relief, emergency management and risk transfer, along with professional functional measures such as preparedness, emergency response, recovery and reconstruction. However, in face of the deep complexity within the disaster system, traditional measures face significant difficulty of balancing and enhancing the efficiency and efficacy of resources used for disaster risk reduction.

This article proposes a strategy of integrated disaster risk reduction (DRR) :The unity of development and protectionThe equalization of technological and institutional innovation in DRRThe synergy between professional/industrial and regional DRR implementationThe integration of DRR structures and functionsThe systemization of all-level DRR from (inter)national plans to community actions

Key Points

服务于我国针对全球变化与环境风险的关系、制定科学有序的应对环境变化政策

服务于我国提高环境变化总体的预估水平和能力

服务于解决我国以制度设计为核心的综合环境风险防御的范式问题

诊断全球变化对环境风险的影响机理与途径（如何影响？）

解决渐发 - 突发综合环境风险评估中量化、模拟与预估的问题（影响多少？）；

揭示中国环境风险在全球环境风险水平中的位置，构建应对范式（责任多大？）

科学研究 国家需求

科学问题关键、国家需求紧迫、国际竞争激烈，且我国已有较好研究基础！

总结（史培军）

Thank you!

谢谢谢谢