Professional Judgement in Hydrogeology A “Blink”...
Transcript of Professional Judgement in Hydrogeology A “Blink”...
Professional Judgement in Hydrogeology
A “Blink” Test
Dave Hart – Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey
Kallina Dunkle – Austin Peay State University
Blink: The Power of Thinking
Without Thinking
Book by Malcolm Gladwell
Discusses “first impression” processes
When and in what context they are useful
We often feel this in science.
Data doesn’t seem correct
Figure looks wrong
or
It all makes sense and works together.
Gladwell’s Example – Getty Kouros Statue sold to Getty Museum
for $10M
Lots of documentation w/ 14
month inspection
Expert reactions-post
purchase
“fresh looking”,
fingernails seemed wrong,
felt “intuitive repulsion”
Today thought to be a
forgery.
Getty Museum
Kouros Statues represented
Greek ideals of male beauty.
Hypothesis – We have similar “snap”
judgements and reactions in geosciences
Investigate our collective
“snap” judgement. Are we consistent in our judgement?
Do experience and training make
much difference?
Local versus universal knowledge (old
timer vs Stackoverflow)
Lots of pitfalls for this type of
question. This is just a start
Looking for improvements
Getty Museum
Kouros Statues represented
Greek ideals of male beauty.
Created Training Images to
represent sediment distributions
Feyen & Caers (2005)
Reference field
Variogram model
Training image model
Hard & Soft Data
TIGenerator Parameters
Shape
Orientation
Dimensions
Length, width, thickness
Amplitude, wavelength
Radii
Proportion
Training Image Selection
80 TI’s Created 12 run with snesim algorithm
Selection basis: Visual comparison with WCRs
Geologic plausibility