Prof Roy Thompson, FRSEthompson/assets/under/under/Haddingt… · ocean acidification Prof Roy...
32
21/10/2015 1 Global warming and its equally evil twin ocean acidification Prof Roy Thompson, FRSE
Transcript of Prof Roy Thompson, FRSEthompson/assets/under/under/Haddingt… · ocean acidification Prof Roy...
21/10/2015
1
Globalwarming
and its equally evil twin
ocean acidification
Prof Roy Thompson, FRSE
21/10/2015
2
Scientists also look beneath the ocean surface
.
. . ..
Predicted changes in the oceans.
21/10/2015
3
Climate change1. How the climate system works
(Greenhouse effect)
2. The fundamental dilemma(Overpopulation & overconsumption)
3. Global signals of a changing climate(Many)
4. Can science fix climate change?(No)
5. Economics of climate change
James Croll - visionary 19th-century Scottish scientist
(1821 – 1890)
Probable birthplace, Little Whitefield, Tuesday 2nd of January 1821
When James was three years old, the family croft was cleared by the
landowner, Lord Willoughby, and displaced to an area of bog-land a mile to
the west at Wolfhill.
21/10/2015
4
Correctly interpreted the influence of eccentricity on the duration of the seasons, and hence on climate
21/10/2015
5
Greenhouse pioneers
Tyndall's 1872 setup for measuring the heat absorption of gases.
21/10/2015
6
Spectroscopy:The interaction between matter and electromagnetic radiation
MOLECULES: The combination of atoms into molecules leads to the creation of numerous unique energetic states ,and hence to the selective emissivity and absorptivity which underlie the greenhouse effect.
21/10/2015
7
Climate change1. How the climate system works
(Greenhouse effect)
2. The fundamental dilemma(Overpopulation & overconsumption)
3. Global signals of a changing climate(Many)
4. Can science fix climate change?(No)
5. Economics of climate change
21/10/2015
8
China
Global
Despite Kyoto,Copenhagen,& Rio globalCO2 emissionsare risingeven faster than previousbusiness-as-usual projections.
Where are
we now?
Global Change's Terrifying Maths
Three simple numbers that add up to a global catastrophe…
The First Number: 2°CA 2°C target is often used in International negotiations as a
guide line for avoiding dangerous climate change.
The Second Number: 900 Gigatons Humans can pour roughly 900 Gt of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere and still have some hope of staying below two
degrees.
The Third Number: >11,000 Gigatons This number – the scariest of all – describes the amount of
carbon contained in coal, oil, gas & hydrofracking
resources. In short, the fossil-fuel mankind can burn is over
10 times higher than the 900 Gt ‘limit’.
21/10/2015
9
Climate change: three steps to ruin
1. Our ever rising global
population, with its over
consumption, generates
atmospheric pollutants
especially CO2.
2. CO2 is a powerful, long-
lived greenhouse gas. It’s
fluctuations have been
the primary driver of
geological climate
change and ocean pH.
3. Impacts of the two
evil twins
ice melt, sea-level rise,
food supply &
ecosystem disruption,
droughts, biodiversity
loss & a 5% fall in
global GDP forever.
Annual greenhouse gas emissions by sector
21/10/2015
10
Climate change1. How the climate system works
(Greenhouse effect)
2. The fundamental dilemma(Overpopulation & overconsumption)
3. Global signals of a changing climate(Many)
4. Can science fix climate change?(No)
5. Economics of climate change
Ice cores
21/10/2015
11
Antarctic ice: the world's air museum
Climate Sensitivity Estimated From Earth's Climate History
ESS of 3 to 6 °C
for 2xCO2
21/10/2015
12
IGY (actually 18-months from July 1957 to December 1958)
Charles David Keeling
Muir
Glacier
21/10/2015
13
Continent-wide response of mountain
vegetation to climate change (2001-8)
”Clear shift towards species that
prefer warmer temperature at 60
summit sites, (867 vegetation
samples) in 17 mountain areas
across Europe”
21/10/2015
14
Recent
developments in
LED technology
create new
opportunities for
lighting of
greenhouse crops.
High-pressure
sodium lamps with
oscillating reflectors
cast moving beams
of light to crops
below in order to
increase yield,
inhibit dormancy, or
accelerate flowering
Managing Daylength in Commercial Greenhouse and Nursery Production
21/10/2015
15
Desynchronisation
■ Not one RBGE phenological publications in over 190 years in an open scientific journal.
■ “If statistical advice [is needed] we will look for it outside Edinburgh”,
■ “While I appreciate your concerns, it must be understood that my colleague got in touch with you as a courtesy to inform you and only ask for your "blessing" as it were…”
Head of Publications
■ Apparent statistical significance is achieved by mere repetition (of non-standard, eccentric assessments and of invalid procedures) until a success occurs.
■ Create scientific-sounding terms (e.g. ‘botanical regression’, ‘thermaldeceleration’) in order to add weight to their claims and thereby persuade non-experts to believe statements that are meaningless.
■ Our work is commercially valuable.
Director
21/10/2015
16
Oceans
Three billion people rely on wild-caught or farmed seafood as their primary source of protein
21/10/2015
17
Sea-level rise from altimetry
Ocean Levels Are Getting Higher
Venice, 2008
21/10/2015
18
G Milne
21/10/2015
19
Aragonite saturation as projected in 2100. Only in the blue
regions will corals and carbonate-shelled creatures
continue to grow. In red regions they will have a hard time.
In a lab experiment, a sea butterfly (pteropod) shell placed in seawater
with increased acidity slowly dissolves over 45 days.
21/10/2015
20
Acidifying oceans spells trouble for squid
The shells of Antarctic marine snails (Limacina helicina - the sea butterfly) are being dissolved by ocean acidification
Cavolinia inflexa’s calcareous shell is very sensitive to pH
Rising water temperatures block
photosynthetic reactions leaving coral a bleached
white.
Acidification even effects organisms without shells
or skeletons:– especially pico- & nano-plankton
21/10/2015
21
Giant plastic
bags deployed
in unique
study of ocean
acidification
Smallest plankton grow fastest
(with rising CO2) depriving larger
phytoplankton of nitrates
21/10/2015
22
The United Nations has warned
that ocean acidification could
cost the global economy
US$1 trillion per year by the
end of the century.
(Thompson, 2016)
4 oC for 2xCO2
21/10/2015
23
Big changes ahead!
Climate change1. How the climate system works
(Greenhouse effect)
2. The fundamental dilemma(Overpopulation & overconsumption)
3. Global signals of a changing climate(Many)
4. Can science fix climate change?(No)
5. Economics of climate change
21/10/2015
24
Plan-A Mitigation
Plan–BAdaptation
Plan-CGeo-engineering
What can we do about Climate Change?
A. Fix the problemB. Cope with the problemC. Re-engineer it.
Space mirrors Sulphate aerosols
Marine stratocumulus clouds (Salter)
Enhanced reflectivity
Plan-C: Geo-engineering
21/10/2015
25
Solid as a rock: The Seven Sisters
A geologic solution?
Dispose of CO2
through mineralization
ENHANCED CHEMICAL WEATHERING AS A GEOENGINEERING STRATEGY TO REDUCEATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE Jens Hartmann et al. May, 2013
21/10/2015
26
CO2 Mineralisation Project to turn released carbon into commercial products.
Industrial flue gas is fed into a high temperature and high pressure environment to create a reaction between the CO2 and chemical solutions and produce useful mineral-based products.
Climate change1. How the climate system works
(Greenhouse effect)
2. The fundamental dilemma(Overpopulation & overconsumption)
3. Global signals of a changing climate(Many)
4. Can science fix climate change?(No)
5. Economics of climate change
21/10/2015
27
Cost-benefit analysis
"The economics problem from hell“1. Multi-national problem
4. Low-probability
catastrophic outcomes
2.Irreversibilities
3. Long time-scale
6.Externalities
5. Large
uncertainties
21/10/2015
28
Global trends of the major well-mixed greenhouse gases
Impact damage form climate change, from Figure 6.5d, (SR, p. 157)
People living in industrialised countries and
indifferent to the fate of humankind after 2050 do not
really need to worry overmuch about climate change.
21/10/2015
29
Disentangling the Nordhaus/Stern controversy
Lord Stern:The benefits of strong, early action
outweigh the costs. Prefers cap and trade. Is calling for counties to raise
the ambition of their climate pledges
Nordhaus: strongly favours a
carbon tax (around $10/ton), and has criticised the Stern Review for its use of a low discount rate.
Carbon Tax,
or Cap &
Trade?
21/10/2015
30
Arthur Pigou
A Pigovian tax is a levy
on an environmental externality
(damage) as an incentive to avert
the costs (to society).
In a true market economy a
Pigovian tax is the most efficient
and effective way to correct a
negative externality. 1920
Wake Up!Climate Change Solution For Sale.$68 Billion [email protected]
21/10/2015
31
David G. Wilson:
The unsung inventor of the
revenue-neutral energy tax
Carbon Dividend(A smart 'revenue neutral‘ carbon tax)
All money collected is returned to households (None goes to the politicians)
Innovation & investment in low-carbon technologies
stimulated by Adam Smith’s invisible hand
Simple and inexpensive to administer
Scope for corruption greatly reduced
Gradual, so predictable for business
Can receive bipartisan political support
Having flogged for 21 years, the dead horse of legally binding emission targets, the UN should close that chapter and try something new.
21/10/2015
32
The United Nations
Climate Change
Conference, COP21
will be held in a
Paris from Nov 30
to Dec 11, 2015
