Prof. Dr. Ing. Enrique Puliafito Urban ecology: …E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006 1 Prof....

1E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006

Prof. Dr. Ing. Enrique Puliafito

"Urban ecology: linking carbon emissions andair quality"

Universidad Tecnológica Nacionaland Research member of CONICET, Argentina

Universidad Tecnológica Nacionaland Research member of CONICET, Argentina

First International Conference onCarbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels: Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues

Global Carbon ProjectMexico City, September 4-8, 2006

First International Conference onCarbon Management at Urban and Regional Levels: Connecting Development Decisions to Global Issues

Global Carbon ProjectMexico City, September 4-8, 2006


Urban model approaches

1. TOP-DOWNPOPULATION DATA CONSUMPTION SURVEYS, SOURCE-DESTINY CENSUSEMISSION FACTORS, FUEL CONSUMPTION, ETC-USEFUL FOR ANNUAL MEAN VALUES AND LONG TERM

TRENDS

2. BOTTOM –UPINTRACITY DETAILED STUDIES IN SITU MEASUREMENTSSHORT TERMED VARIATIONSSMALL SPATIAL SCALES

3. MATERIAL FLUX ANALYSISLOOK FOR PERFORMANCE INDICATORSINTERCITY COMPARISON


Top-down: demographic aspectsDemographic aspects Units /years 1970 1980 1990 2000

Pop. Nation Inhab. 23,364,000 27,949,480 32,615,528 36,260,130Pop. growth Nation %/Ann. 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% 1.10%Urban Pop. in city Mendoza Inhab. 456,794 618,702 778,972 902,539Population growth, city %/Ann. 3.50% 2.60% 1.60%Urban % to national pop. % 2.00% 2.20% 2.40% 2.50%Economic aspectsGDP Nation constant 1990 Mill. U$S 122,811 158,046 141,346 213,758GDP of the city Mill. U$S 2,564 3,471 3,181 4,870% City in GDP Province % 58 61 62 64GDP per capita of the city U$S 5,614 5,610 4,084 5,396Income distribution (city level) U$S 468 467 340 458Urban aspectsUrban density in the city Inhab. / Km2 1,893 2,252 2,577 2,768

Urbanized area Km2 317 336 357 376Rate of urbanization (decade) Km2/ann. 3 3.5 4.8

4E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006Source: Dirección de Medios y Vías de Transporte, Mendoza

Transport data: Origin-destiny survey 1998

35%

1%

1%

0%

1%

25%

15%

3%

7% 8% 4%

Public Bus (diesel)Trolley bus (elect)Taxi (diesel-GNC)Corporative BusSchool BusPrivate CarShare private car rideMotorcycleBicycleWalk > 1kmOther

Daily trips in Mendoza

100% : 1,500,000 trips


Fuel consumption

Source: Secretaría de Energía de la Nación

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

NCG Thous. m3 MC Thous. lt ME Thous. lt JF Thous. lt GO Thous. lt EE MWh

AutoBusesAirplaneFreight


Energyconsumption

16%

68%

10% 6%Oil productsNatural gasElectricityCoal

Energy consumption by fuel

Sector TJ % TJ % TJ %Energy production 15133 34.20% 17540 36.20% 17385 34.00%Residential 5022 11.40% 6970 14.40% 9676 18.90%Rural 1293 2.90% 1198 2.50% 1307 2.60%Industry 8812 19.90% 8320 17.20% 6051 11.80%Transport 12978 29.30% 12838 26.50% 14143 27.70%Service 982 2.20% 1569 3.20% 2527 4.90%Total 44219 100.00% 48435 100.00% 51089 100.00%

Year 1980 1990 2000


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

CO

2 (tn

)

198019902000

1980 1,180 299 95 668 973 551990 1,342 404 88 628 953 862000 1,355 576 96 459 1,061 142

Energy own Residential Rural Industry Transport Service

CO2 emissions by sector


Annual emissions thousands of tns

Gas / year 1980 1990 2000CO2 974 953 1,060CO 65 64 71NOx 5.2 5.1 5.7CH4 1.95 1.91 2.11

Calculated annual fuel consumption (mobile sources), using emission factors (g/litres o g/Joule)


Bottom-up

For each street segment one needs to assign

N: vehicle fleet

e: Pollutant and GHG emission factors (g/km),

l . Street length

E: Total emission g/h

leNE ××=∑ ∑ ∑ ⎥

⎦

⎤⎢⎣

⎡⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛××=

k ij

m

mi imNvkme

plkimE ),(),,(

100),,(


Bottom-up

For each street segment it is necessary to determine the traffic flow and velocity

)/)1exp(()(),()/)1exp(()(),(

0

0

BdjNjiNAdjVjiV

−=−=

)(0

)(0

),()()(

),()()(jD

HCHC

jCCOCO

jiVjEiE

jiVjEiE

×=

×=

The emission factors depend on vehicular activity, speed, fuel type, etc:


CO en g/s AV. SAN MARTIN 1C0802

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0 50 100 150 200 250 300TIEMPO (s)

CO

(g/s

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

VELO

CID

AD (k

m/h

)

CO g/s velocidad

Measurements of vehicular emissions


Mobile sources distribution


Comparison and calibration

Emission Tn/year Top-down Bottom-up Dif %CO GV 30,908 33,319 7.80%HC GV 5,099 4,293 -15.80%


Air quality estimation and measurements

1) Organize the vehicular emissions in a griddedpattern

2) Add industrial sources

3) Include residential sources…

Apply a gaussian dispersion model

In our case study: 20.000 cells 350 x 350 m

Display results


Griddedemissionpatterns

forMendoza

Annual mean values of CO frommobile sources


DAILY PRESSURE 1990-1998

910

920

930

940

950

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

DAY OF YEAR

PRES

S. (m

bar)

Presmediasim

DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURES 1990-1998

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360

DAY OF YEAR

TEM

P. (°

C)

Temppromediosim

Local meteorology


Resultados


Air quality

• Annual mean values of CO


Pollutantmeasurements

Media diaria material particulado, Mendoza 1987-1998

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Año

MP

(ug/

m3)

Medias diarias óxidos de nitrógenos, Mendoza, 1987-1998

0

50

100

150

200

250

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Año

NO

x (u

g/m

3)

Datos: Dirección de Control Ambiental, MAOP, Mendoza

Air qualitymonitoring


Mendoza, O3, NOx and CO Sep 1998

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

7-9-980.00

7-9-986.00

7-9-9812.00

7-9-9818.00

8-9-980.00

8-9-986.00

8-9-9812.00

8-9-9818.00

9-9-980.00

9-9-986.00

9-9-9812.00

9-9-9818.00

10-9-980.00

DAY AND HOUR

NO

x an

d O

3 ug

/m3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

CO

(ppm

)

NOxOzoneCO

Variación diaria típica de contaminantes en Benegas, (2/10/1998)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0:00 3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 0:00Hora del día

NO /

NOx

/ O3

(ppb

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Rad

. (W

/m2)

CO

x100

(ppm

)

NO ppb NOx ppb Ozono ppbCO x 100 ppm Radia W/m2

Continuos measurements

Of pollutants

Air qualitymonitoring


Modelling industrial sourcesParticulate matter Nitrogen oxides


Material flux analysis: perfomance indicators

STORAGE / ACCUMULATION

Domestic extractions

External hidden flux

Imports Exports

processed domestic outputsemissions to air, water, ...

LOCAL ENVIRONMENT

Hidden domestic flux

DMI

TDO

Water, air supply Water vapor

ECONOMICPROCESS

Hidden domestic flux


Conclusions

• Urban air quality and GHG emissions• Have many common sources,

industry, energy gen., transport, residential, etc….

• Emission modeling using top-down and bottom up approaches…

• Modelling may help and show opportunities to reduce both air pollutant and GHG emissions

Prof. Dr. Ing. Enrique Puliafito Urban ecology: …E. Puliafito GCP-Mexico 3-8 Sept. 2006 1 Prof....

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