Products and Tools from theNational Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM)2015 ATC-USGS User Needs WorkshopPeter Powers, USGS, Golden, COpmpowers@usgs.gov

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Overview

• Introduction & Background– Conterminous US Map Releases: 1996, 2002, 2008, 2014– Web Service Development as Requested or Possible

• Product overview– Primary Products: Hazard Models & Data– Secondary Products: Design– Secondary Products: Hazard– Other Data Products

• Current Issues• Solutions• Scientific Issues• Poll

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Primary Products: Hazard Models & Data

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Primary Products: Hazard Models & Data

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Primary Products: Hazard Models & Data

• Open-File Reports

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Primary Products: Hazard Models & Data

• Open-File Reports• Data: Curves and Maps

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Primary Products: Hazard Models & Data

• Open-File Reports• Data: Curves and Maps• Print Maps

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Primary Products: Hazard Models & Data

• Open-File Reports• Data: Curves and Maps• Print Maps• Fault Source Tool

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Primary Products: Hazard Models & Data

• Open-File Reports• Data: Curves and Maps• Print Maps• Fault Source Tool• Source Code• EQ Catalogs• GIS Data

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Secondary Products: Design Maps & Data

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Secondary Products: Design Maps & Data

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Secondary Products: Design Maps & Data

• US Design• Worldwide Design• RTGM Calculator

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Secondary Products: Design Maps & Data

• US Design• Worldwide Design• RTGM Calculator• Reports

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Secondary Products: Hazard Data & Services

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Secondary Products: Custom Hazard Map

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Secondary Products: Custom EQ Probability Map

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Secondary Products: Hazard Curve Service

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Secondary Products: Hazard Curve Service

• Hazard Curves

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Secondary Products: Hazard Curve Service

• Hazard Curves• Response Spectra

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Secondary Products: Hazard Curve Service

• Hazard Curves• Response Spectra• HTTP Data Access

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Secondary Products: Hazard Deaggregation

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Secondary Products: Hazard Deaggregation

• Deaggregation• Text (tabular) results

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Secondary Products: Hazard Deaggregation

• Deaggregation• Text (tabular) results• Geographic

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Secondary Products: Hazard Deaggregation

• Deaggregation• Text (tabular) results• Geographic• Conditional Mean

Spectra

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Secondary Products: Banded Deaggregation

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Other Data Products

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Other Data Products: Global Vs30 Map Server

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Other Data Products: Q-Faults Database

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Current Issues

Slow to update products and services with the 2014 model

• Increasing epistemic uncertainty and model complexity– WUS: UCERF3 for California (fault system approach)– CEUS: adopted elements of CEUS-SSC

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Current Issues

Slow to update products and services with the 2014 model

• Increasing epistemic uncertainty and model complexity– WUS: UCERF3 for California (fault system approach)– CEUS: adopted elements of CEUS-SSC

• Current products and services backed by different codes– OpenSHA, USGS Fortran

• Maps for increased periods and site classes– Data management issue; multiple model releases

• Must support estimation of uncertainty moving forward• Larger models; computationally intensive

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Solutions: nshmp-haz (backend)

Recognizing our resources and capabilities: • Near-term focus on unifying software used to generate and

serve hazard data and products: nshmp-haz• Implemented in Java; adopts best elements of OpenSHA

and USGS Fortran• Generalized source model format (XML)• Versioning: GitHub (usgs/nshmp-haz-*)• Data releases keyed to software• Functional PSHA: Emphasis on

– Immutability– Concurrency

• Round trip consistency between:– nshmp-haz, source models– GIS databases and services– Web services and applications

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Solutions: Unified Hazard Tool (in development)

• Leverages nshmp-haz• Integrates in a single web application:

– Custom hazard maps– EQ probability maps– Hazard Curve Service– Deaggregation– Source model maps

• Supports new services– Source MFD plotter

• Integrates static and dynamic data– Static data keyed to releases (i.e. building code)– Dynamic always serves most up-to-date model

• Data representations: tabular, SVG plots

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Solutions: Unified Hazard Tool (in development)

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Solutions: Unified Hazard Tool (in development)

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Solutions: New U.S. Seismic Design Maps Tool

• Features design ground motion values from the 2015 NEHRP Recommended Seismic Provisions

• Other design codes to come, e.g. 2015 IBC

• Mobile-friendly design

• Anticipated launch: end of September

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Scientific Issues

• Induced seismicity and hazard• Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF)• Urban and regional hazard maps• Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty• Basin depth maps• Time-dependent hazard models• Liquefaction potential• Directivity and directionality• Hazard map testing• Single station sigma• Vertical ground motions• Others?

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Questions

• Are we making more work for ourselves?– Unused products?– Inadequate documentation?

• Who is required to use the latest published source model?• How to deal with deterministic events in light of UCERF3?

User-Needs Poll…