Market situation in the olive oil and table olives sectors

Committee for the Common Organisation

of the Agricultural Markets

- Arable crops and olive oil -

30 September 2021

AGRI G.4

PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION & ENDING STOCKS

World production decreasing for the third consecutive marketing year

2 324 1 752 2 188 2 264 1 920 2 053

853

810

1 191 1 041

1 337 979

3 177

2 562

3 379 3 304 3 2563 031

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 (fin.) 2020/21 (prov.)

WORLD OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION

non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2016/17-2020/21

Source: International Olive Council, MS declarations. Note: excl. pomace oil.

thousand tonnes

WORLD -5% WORLD -2%

EU 7% EU -2%

non-EU -22% non-EU -2%

2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average

Production recovery in the EU in 2020/21…

EU production in 2020/21 expected 2% below 5-year average

…partly offsetting slowdown in non-EU countries.

Source: International Olive Council. Note: excl. pomace oil.

Non-EU production in 2020/21 expected 2% below 5-year average

First estimates for 2021/22 in the EU…

Production recovery in the EU in 2021/22

1 291 1 262 1 790 1 125 1 387 1 400

182429

174

366

274 300195

346185

275275 230

69

135100

141100 150

1752

2188 2264

1920 2053 2097

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 (fin.) 2020/21 (prov.) 2021/22 (for.)

EU OLIVE OIL PRODUCTION

Other EU (0%) Portugal (+50%) Greece (-16%) Italy (+10%) Spain (+1%) Average 2016/17-2020/21

Source: International Olive Council. Note: excl. pomace oil.

thousand tonnesforecast

EU production in 2021/22 expected 3% above 5-year average

Lower estimated EU availabilities in 2020/21

2 991

2 293

2 602

2 204

2 693

2 941 2 9562 843

2 326

2 1092 226

1 862

2 157 2 122

2 3152 370

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (fin.) 2018/19 (prov.) 2019/20 (est.) 2020/21 (for.)

EU OLIVE OIL AVAILABILITIES AND USES

Availabilities (stocks+prod.+ import extra EU) Uses (consumption+exports extra EU)

thousand tonnes

Estimated EU ending stocks below average in 2020/21

894

455

631

177

359

322

531

783

631

474

0

200

400

600

800

1 000EU OLIVE OIL ENDING STOCKS

Ending stocks Average last five yearsNote: ending stocks on 30.9.; excl. olive pomace oil.

thousand tonnes

EU EXTRA-TRADE

Imports decreased in the first ten months of 2020/21…

volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2019/20 (%)

Tunisia 99 784 75 93 203 74 188 757 88 127 849 86 -32.3

Syria 7 895 6 6 923 5 2 521 1 2 716 2 7.7

Morocco 6 858 5 13 719 11 5 126 2 4 913 3 -4.2

Turkey 6 362 5 5 126 4 7 431 3 3 907 3 -47.4

Argentina 5 014 4 2 912 2 4 927 2 4 357 3 -11.6

Utd. Kingdom 2 138 2 2 082 2 1 828 1 960 1 -47.5

Peru 805 1 812 1 2 737 1 1 503 1 -45.1

Others 3 763 3 1 714 1 2 175 1 2 757 2 26.8

Extra EU 132 618 126 492 215 503 148 962 -30.9

EU27 imports of olive oil from third countries (October - July)

2020/21Trade partner

Source: COMEXT. Period: October - July. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes). Provisional data for 2020/21.

2019/202015/162017/18 2018/192016/172015/20 (5-year average)

…resulting from lower imports of EVOO and LOO, partly offset by higher imports of OPO.

Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes

15091020 (extra virgin)

15091080 (virgin other than lampante)

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20

EXTRA-EU OLIVE OIL IMPORTS, PER CATEGORY

Extra virgin (CN 15091020) Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080)

Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090) Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)

Olive oil (CN 15099000) Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510)

Average previous 3 marketing years

tonnes

Imports from TN decreased for the fourth consecutive month

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Oct. 15 Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20

IMPORTS OF VIRGIN OLIVE OIL FROM TUNISIA

quota + out of quota Inward processing Average previous 3 MY (quota + out of quota) Average previous 3 MY (inward processing)

tonnes

65 444 56 199 121 580 106 118 216 767 125 212

Source: Eurostat COMEXT.

Imports from TN under zero duty quota fully allocated

Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period

it is still part of the EU Customs Union. TAXUD EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.

Zero duty imports from Tunisia in 2021

Exports stable in the first ten months of 2020/21, compared to 2019/20…

volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) volume (t) share (%) vs. 2019/20 (%)

United States 192 317 34 197 324 34 228 099 33 236 826 35 3.8

Brazil 51 535 9 57 879 10 76 288 11 74 658 11 -2.1

Utd. Kingdom 52 398 9 48 836 8 66 152 10 57 244 8 -13.5

Japan 47 805 8 55 664 10 57 274 8 47 304 7 -17.4

China 34 139 6 38 168 7 39 348 6 32 281 5 -18.0

Canada 24 381 4 23 179 4 29 924 4 28 062 4 -6.2

Australia 23 604 4 22 105 4 29 878 4 25 542 4 -14.5

Others 137 193 24 140 645 24 159 866 23 180 315 26 12.8

Extra EU 563 372 583 800 686 828 682 233 -0.7

2015/16

EU27 exports of olive oil to third countries (October - July)

2016/172017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Source: COMEXT. Period: October - July. CN codes: 1509 (all stat. regimes). Provisional data for 2020/21.

2015/20 (5-year average)Trade partner

2020/21

……resulting from stable exports of EVOO, higher exports of OPO and lower exports for OO.

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

Oct. 16 Oct. 17 Oct. 18 Oct. 19 Oct. 20

OLIVE OIL EXPORTS OUTSIDE THE EU, PER CATEGORY

Olive-pomace oil (CN 1510) Olive oil (CN 15099000)Virgin other than lampante (CN 15091080) Extra virgin (CN 15091020)Extra virgin + virgin other than lampante (CN 15091090) Virgin lampante (CN 15091010)Average previous 3 marketing years

tonnes

Reminder: Change of CN codes as of 1.1.2017: 15091090 becomes

15091020 (extra virgin)

15091080 (virgin other than lampante)

EU INTRA-TRADE

Intra-trade broadly stable in 2020/21 (Oct.-Jun.)

(1000 tonnes)

TOTAL

Trade partner volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume share (%) volume

Spain 3.3 3.4 2.5 2.0 71.3 70.7 0.3 5.8 0.1 1.1 77.6

Italy 241.9 49.5 99.3 80.3 21.8 21.6 0.1 1.0 0.3 2.4 363.3

Greece 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.3 1.4

Portugal 119.5 24.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 119.7

France 70.1 14.4 26.5 27.3 1.8 1.5 3.5 3.4 2.8 22.8 104.6

Germany 14.7 3.0 37.7 38.8 10.9 8.8 0.9 0.9 2.8 49.1 1.7 14.1 68.6

Netherlands 13.8 2.8 3.7 3.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.3 1.1 9.4 19.7

Belgium 6.0 1.2 3.2 3.3 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 1.6 28.5 0.9 7.8 13.0

Others 21.6 4.4 22.3 22.9 7.4 6.0 3.0 2.9 0.7 13.2 4.8 40.0 59.8

Total 488.3 100 97.2 100 123.6 100 100.9 100 5.6 100 12.1 100 827.7

Total same period

previous campaign470.6 92.3 111.5 107.6 5.5 12.2 799.7

Difference (y-o-y%) 3.8 5.3 10.9 -6.2 2.4 -1.1 3.5

France Others

EU intra-trade of olive oil (CN 1509) (October 2020 - June 2021)

Spain Greece

Period: 01/10/2020 - 30/06/2021. Olive oil excl. pomace oil. Source: COMEXT. All stat. regimes.

Origin (declared exports)

Italy Portugal

EU PRICES(until 16.09.2021)

EVOO: stable at high levels across Member States…

…reduced EVOO price divergence between IT and other origins since May 2021.

NEW!

VOO prices also stable across Member States

LOO prices stable across Member States

TABLE OLIVES

World production below average in 2020/21

887 842 913 859 771 848

1 6902 058

2 3682 029 2 184 1 854

2 5772 900

3 2802 888 2 955

2 702

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19(prov.)

2019/20(est.)

2020/21(for.)

WORLD TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION

non-EU EU WORLD Average world 2015/16-2019/20Source: International Olive Council.

thousand tonnes

WORLD -9% WORLD -7%

EU 10% EU -1%

non-EU -15% non-EU -10%

2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average

2020/21: production recovery in ES, broadly unchanged in EL

601 596 562 591458

546

194 180 261 199

222

230

887842

913 859

771

848

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19(prov.)

2019/20(est.)

2020/21(for.)

EU TABLE OLIVE PRODUCTION

Other EU Portugal Italy Greece Spain EU EU average 2014/15-2018/19Source: International Olive Council.

thousand tonnes

Spain 19% Spain -3%

Greece 4% Greece 9%

Italy -17% Italy -6%

Portugal -37% Portugal -32%

2020/21 vs. 2019/20 2020/21 vs. 5-y average

First estimates for 2021/22 in the EU…

Trade balance broadly stable in 2020/21 (Sep.-Jul.)

117123

143 143 141143

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Extra-EU imports of table olives (Sep.-Jul.)

Morocco Turkey Egypt Others Extra EU

thousand tonnes

377

414 401430

417423

0

100

200

300

400

500

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Extra-EU exports of table olives (Sep.-Jul.)

United States Saudi Arabia Russia Utd. Kingdom

Canada Others Extra EU

thousand tonnes

Source: Eurostat COMEXT.

US imports of Spanish table olives

Source: IHS Global Trade Atlas.

27

-9 -16-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2018/19 2019/20 2020/21

Spain - Changes in export volumes of

table olives outside the EU (Sep. - Jul.)

United States Utd. Kingdom RussiaSaudi Arabia Canada Others

thousand tonnes

BRIQ

Market selling prices of raw olives(marketing year 2020/21)

Source: Member States communications.

Market selling prices of raw olives for table olives, national weighted average

(EUR per 100kg)

62.35 71.18 104.2081.00

Thank you

© European Union 2020

Note: The United Kingdom is no longer a Member State of the European Union, however until the end of the transition period

it is still part of the EU Customs Union. Taxud EU trade data therefore also include the UK and it is labelled as EU+UK.

Unless otherwise noted the reuse of this presentation is authorised under the CC BY 4.0 license. For any use or reproduction of elements that are not

owned by the EU, permission may need to be sought directly from the respective right holders.

Slide 23: source: Pixabay.com

Market informationhttps://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/plants-and-plant-products/plant-products/olive-oil

Agri-Food Data Portalhttps://agridata.ec.europa.eu/extensions/DataPortal/home.html