Problem Solving. Objectives zLearn how to state and clarify a problem Develop a procedure for...
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Transcript of Problem Solving. Objectives zLearn how to state and clarify a problem Develop a procedure for...
Problem Solving
Objectives
Learn how to state and clarify a problemDevelop a procedure for problem solvingLearn the traps
in problem solving
What’s typical?Self-Doubt
Over Confidence
Procrastination
Flip-flops
Desperation! WRONG!
Six Criteria for Effective Decisions
Focuses on what is important Logical and consistent Acknowledges objective and subjective factors,
blends analytical and intuitive thinkingDoes not gather too much information Tries to reach consensus Straightforward, reliable, easy to use, flexible
Problem Solving Model
POACT
roblem
bjectives
lternatives
onsequences
radeoffs
Additional Factors
Risk
Uncertainty
Linked decisions
Problem Solving Steps
State the problem carefully Acknowledge complexities Avoid assumptions and prejudices
Specify the objectives Create imaginative alternatives Understand the consequences of the
alternative Grapple with your tradeoffs………con’t
Problem Solving Steps, con’t
Clarify uncertainties Think about your risk tolerance and the
risks of each alternative Consider linked decisions
Each alternative opens or closes future options
What’s the best solution?
A good solutionto a well-posed problem….
An excellentsolution to apoorly posedproblem
Is a almost always
a smarterchoicethan..
Define the Problem• What triggers the problem? • State the problem• Question the constraints of the problem statement• Identify the essential elements• How does this impact other decisions?• What is the scope of the problem?• Gain insights from others• Restate problem, if necessary
What Objectives Do
Help determine what information to seek
Explain your choices to others Determine the importance of,
time and effort devoted to the problem
How to identify objectives
Write down the concerns you hope to address: Wish list Worst possible outcome Impact on others Insights from others What’s a good alternative but unfeasible? What is bad about the worst alternatives?
How to identify objectives
Convert the concerns into succinct objectives
Separate the ends from the meansClarify what you mean by each objective Test your objectives
Alternatives
Use your objects and ask HOW? Challenge constraints to your alternatives Set high aspirationsThink through your alternatives before
consulting others Learn from past experience Then ask others for suggestions
How to generate alternatives
Brainstorming Just list alternatives, don’t evaluate Never stop looking for alternatives Look for win-win alternatives
Stop when you’ve thought through alternatives
One solution would satisfy you But still have a range of alternatives
Consequences
List the consequences of each alternative Assess the future consequences of each
alternative Create a free-form description of the
consequences Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives Organize descriptions of remaining
alternatives into a table …….
Consequences
Try to develop a common scale to measure consequences
Use qualitative and quantitative data Use experts if necessary Use scales that reflect appropriate levels of
precision
Tradeoffs
Eliminate alternatives clearly dominated by others
Then swaps between alternatives using measures
Value incremental improvements Make consistent tradeoffs
Uncertainties
What are the key uncertainties? What are the possible outcomes of these
uncertainties? What are the changes of the outcomes,
given these uncertainties? What are the consequences of each
outcome?….
Uncertainties
Identify the key uncertainties Define the possible outcomes Assign chance of occurrence of each
outcome Clarify consequences using quantitative
and qualitative measures Create a decision tree
Risk Tolerance
How much risk do you want to handle? How much are others affected by your
decision? Quantify the risks, if possible Seek to lessen the risks but avoid foolish
optimism Don’t avoid making risky decisions just
because they are complex
How to lessen risk
Seek risk reducing information Diversify the risk Hedge the risk Insure against the risk
Linked decisions
Choose options that leave future flexibility intact
Get timing right on decision tree Describe the consequences at the end
points
Psychological Traps
Working on the wrong problem Failing to identify key objectives Failing to develop a range of good, creative
alternatives Overlooking crucial consequences of your
alternatives Giving inadequate thought to tradeoffs Disregarding uncertainty…….
Traps, con’t
Failing to account for risk intoleranceFailing to plan ahead when decisions are
linked over time...
So, tell me some specifics on these traps...
Common Traps
Anchoring trapStatus Quo TrapSunk Cost TrapConfirming
Evidence Trap Framing Trap
Overconfidence Trap
Recallability Trap
Base Rate Trap Prudence Trap Random Events
Review
A model for problem solving
The actions in each of the steps
Common Traps in problem solving