Probability

To be or not to be!!!

Total Chance of Dying

• The two inevitable truths of life– Death and taxes– If you don’t pay taxes directly you pay on

purchased items.– What is the current tax rate on a purchase in

Wisconsin.• And death

– You have a 1 in 1 chance of dying– 100%

MeYou Some day!

Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2008*

• Cancer 1 in 7• Stroke 1 in 29• Motor vehicle incidents

1 in 98• Intentional self-harm 1

in 109• Unintentional poisoning

by and exposure to noxious substances 1 in 126

• Assault by firearm 1 in 321

• Pedestrian 1 in 701• Motorcycle rider 1 in

761• Accidental drowning

and submersion 1 in 1,103

• Exposure to smoke, and flames 1 in 1,344

Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2008*

• Pedalcyclist 1 in 4,381• Air and space transport

incidents 1 in 7,178• Exposure to electric

current, radiation, temperature, and pressure 1 in 12,420

• Exposure to excessive natural heat 1 in 13,217

• Cataclysmic storm 1 in 29,196

• Contact with hornets, wasps, and bees 1 in 79,842

• Earthquake and other earth movements 1 in 97,807

• Legal execution 1 in 111,779• Lightning 1 in 134,906• Bitten or struck by dog 1 in

144,899• Flood 1 in 558,896• Fireworks discharge 1 in

652,046

Source: National Safety Council estimates based on data

from National

Putting this in real numbers….

• United States population in 2008 was __________

• How many died from cancer, intentional harm, fire arms, and flood?

Probability x population = real numbers

• Milwaukee population in 2008 was ________

• How many died from cancer, intentional harm, fire arms, and flood?

Probability x population = real numbers

http://serc.carleton.edu/images/quantskills/methods/diceroll.jpg

Sum probability (fractional) probability (percentage)

2 1/36 2.78%

3 2/36 5.56%

4 3/36 8.33%

5 4/36 11.11%

6 5/36 13.89%

7 6/36 16.67%

8 5/36 13.89%

9 4/36 11.11%

10 3/36 8.33%

11 2/36 5.56%

12 1/36 2.78%

TOTAL 36/36 100%

Probabilities of a sum given a single roll of two dice

Probability in your life…The U.S weather service

defines several verbal probabilities:

• slight chance - 20% probability

• chance - 30-50 % probability

• likely - 60-70 % probability

• no qualifier - 80-100% probability

Graphical way of showing probability

• There are several graphical ways to portray both probabilities and probability distributions.

• Graphical ways of showing probabilities

• Bar

• Pie chart

• Number line

• Graphical ways of showing probability distributions

• Bar chart

• Distribution probability

• Cumulative percent

More Causes of Death…Cause of death

• Aids/HIV infection • Airplane Crash • Alcoholic Liver Disease • Car Crash • Earthquake • Falls • Flood • Food Poisoning • Heart disease • Homicide • Suicide

Probability

• 1 in 19,000• 1 in 2,736,000• 1 in 22,000• 1 in 6357• 0 to 1 in 40,000,000• 1 in 20,688• 1 In 6,700,000• 1 in 53,000• 1 in 387• 1 in 16439• 1 in 9350

WARNING !!!!

• One common source of confusion is that probabilities are represented in many differing ways all – all meaning the same thing.

• Probabilities can be represented as a ratio, percentage, fraction or as a decimal

Take a moment…

• What factors must be measured before you can determine a probability of how likely you will be happy in life?

• What factors must be measured before you can determine a probability of how likely you will be a grandparent someday?