“Probability forecast use” study Edwin Welles and Jan Verkade February 2012.
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Transcript of “Probability forecast use” study Edwin Welles and Jan Verkade February 2012.
“Probability forecast use” study
Edwin Welles and Jan Verkade
February 2012
November 30, 2011
Theme of present project: probability forecasting
November 30, 2011
“How to realise the benefits of probability forecasting?”
• Probability forecasting brings benefits to forecasters and end users
• Having a forecasting system that estimates predictive uncertainty is probably not sufficient to realise these benefits
What needs to be done in addition to having a probability forecast?
Present project aims to preliminary answer this question
By eliciting expertise/judgement from forecasters and end-users
November 30, 2011
Present project: use of probability forecasts
• Looking at aspects such as:
• visualisation
• communication
• decision-making
• verification
• training
• “downstream” decisionsupport systems
• business procedures
November 30, 2011
Project participants
• Flood Control 2015 programme (funding)• US National Weather Service, NCRFC• Meuse River Forecasting Centre (RWS, Dienst Limburg)• Water board Noorderzijlvest• Scottish Environment Protection Agency (TBC)• Why Deltares?
• Delft-FEWS (CHPS) related research
• PhD research on predictive hydrological uncertainty
• The Netherlands can benefit from US prediction enterprise
November 30, 2011
Case studies
• not too large• straightforward forecast – decision – warning – response chain
(not too many stakeholders involved)• largely based on desk research and interviews• desk research: review of current operational procedures• interviews: elicit expertise and/or expert judgement from
forecasters and emergency managers “how would your tasks/responsibilities change if probability forecasts were to be introduced?”
November 30, 2011
Water Board “Noorderzijlvest”
• Water Board: responsible for maintainingwater levels in polder districts withinacceptable levels (Fully controlled systems, well below MSL)
• 2010 event: flood warning called, but nothing happened• Hydrologist was blamed• Way forward: probability forecasts
November 30, 2011
Water Board “Noorderzijlvest”
• November 2011: forecasting – warning – response exercise• Lessons:
• interpretation of probability forecasts not an issue
• information overload is
• decision makers: with these forecasts, I don’t have to make my own estimates of the inherent uncertainties
• probability forecasts used to devise scenarios (worst case)
November 30, 2011
Study deliverables
• Description of “best practices” of using probability forecasts within FFWRS, from multiple case studies
• Inventory of likely challenges / possible obstacles for effectively using probability forecasts
• Seminar, Report, scientific article• (while we’re at it: collect relevant reports from earlier, related
studies bibliography, links and downloads will be published on the Deltares wiki pages)